Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020....

23
Corporate Presentation February 2020

Transcript of Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020....

Page 1: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Corporate PresentationFebruary 2020

Page 2: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All

statements other than statements of historical fact, included herein,

including, without limitation, statements regarding future plans and

objectives of Canacol Energy Ltd. (“Canacol” or the “Corporation”),

are forward-looking statements that involve various risks,

assumptions, estimates, and uncertainties. These statements reflect

the current internal projections, expectations or beliefs of Canacol and

are based on information currently available to the Corporation. There

can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate,

and actual results and future events could differ materially from those

anticipated in such statements. All of the forward looking statements

contained in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary

statements and the risk factors described above. Furthermore, all such

statements are made as of the date this presentation is given and

Canacol assumes no obligation to update or revise these statements.

Barrels of oil equivalent

Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated using the conversion factor

of 5.7 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of natural gas being equivalent to one

barrel of oil. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A

boe conversion ratio of 5.7 Mcf:1 bbl (barrel) is based on an energy

equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip

and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.

Realized contractual sales

Represents net before royalty

USD

All dollar amounts are shown in US dollars, unless indicated otherwise2

Jobo-3July ‘19

Page 3: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Colombia’s Largest Independent Natural Gas Producer

3

Conventional Natural Gas In Colombia

1. Focused

• Conventional natural gas pure play focused in Colombia

2. Leader

• Largest supplier to the Caribbean Coast and largest independent producer country wide

3. Well Positioned

• Only active onshore gas operator with the most competitive cost structure

Creating Value For Shareholders

Competitive Advantages

1. Significant Upside

• World class assets with organic growth opportunities (2.6 TCF of resource upside)

2. Low Risk – High Reward

• Long term take or pay contracts with no exposure to world commodity prices

3. Strong Cash Flow Generation

• Low cost operator targeting significant free cash flow

• Return on Capital

• ~4.7% Dividend Yield

Return To Shareholders

Page 4: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Canacol’s Special Natural Gas Operating Model

4

Canacol’s supply ~25% of Colombia gas

Country gas demand ~ 1 BCF / +2-3% per yr.

Gas supply, x-Canacol Declining ~12% / yr.

Market Leader

The largest independent natural gas producer in supply deficient Colombia

Significant Sales Growth

Successful Exploration + Industry-Leading

F&D Cost

Highly Profitable

Low cost operator with robust netback margin

Significant free cash flow after capex

Significant Resource Potential

‘19e → ‘20e, ~37% growth 150 → >205 MMscf/d

‘20e → ‘23e, ~46% growth >200 → >300 MMscf/d

Exploration success 20/24 (83%)

3-yr. 2P F&D $0.67/Mcf

1

2

3

4

5

Canacol take or pay contracts $4.84/MMbtu(1)

215% of U.S. Henry Hub

Operating netback / margin $3.92(2) / 81%(2)

’20 capex <50% of annual EBITDAX

140 prospects/leads 2.6 TCF upside(3)

(1) As of 3Q ‘19. Represents realized gas contracts, net of transportation costs.(2) As of 3Q ‘19(3) Represents gross mean unrisked resources, Gaffney Cline & Associates 12/31/17 (no resource estimates for blocks awarded added in 2019)

Page 5: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Solving Colombia’s Natural Gas Supply Deficit

Bogota

Medellin

Cartagena

Barranquilla

Caribbean SeaHocol

60 km

Canacol gas blocks

Pipeline expansion

Existing gas pipelines

Strong demand for gas from Colombia’s Caribbean coast

• Demand ~425 MMcf/d

increasing 3% / yr.(2)

Terminal decline in Caribbean gas supply

• For 30+ yrs., the Guajira fields provided ~50% of gas supply

• Canacol is replacing the Guajira fields as the largest supplier of gas to the Caribbean coast

(1) Source: UPME Colombia Gas demand Forecast, December 2019

Cerro Matoso

Colombia´s natural gas demand 1999-2033(1)

In MMcf/d

5

Guajira fields

New Blocks

Awarded in 2019

Barranquilla

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

History Low Medium High

Page 6: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Tracking Canacol-Gas

Large and growing land position

• 85k → 1.4 mm net acres

• 7 → 140 prospects & leads

• 2.6 TCF of prospective resources(2)

2P reserves in BCF

Large gas reserves base(1)

44

• BT NPV-10 $2.1 B(1)

• Added 696 BCF from ‘13 → ‘19

• 37% CAGR

(1) Working Interest reserves per the independent reserve report prepared by Boury Global Energy Consultants (“Boury”) effective Dec. 31, 2019, Reserves added and CAGR calculation include historic production

(2) Represents gross mean unrisked resources, Gaffney Cline & Associates 12/31/17, (no resource estimates for blocks awarded added in 2019)

In MMscf/d

• By ‘23, ~46% growth (>205→ >300 MMscf/d)

Robust sales growth

7

140

6

115 119 122 121

150

205

>300

3Q '18 4Q '18 1Q '19 2Q '19 '19e '20e '23e

+ ~46%

+ ~37%

0.1

0.7

1.1

1.4

7

44

140

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

'12-'13 '14-'16 '17-'18 Today

95

345372

411

505

559

624

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Page 7: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

215

Average annualized natural gas salesIn MMcf/d

‘12 Acquired Shona Energy

• 80 km pipeline → Cerromatoso nickel mine

’16 190 km pipeline

‘17 82 km line Jobo → Bremen

• ’19 190 km line Jobo → Cartagena

‘23e 100 MMcf/d pipeline to Medellin

• 300 km pipeline south

Success Delivers Infrastructure Growth

Caribbean Sea

Medellin

Sincelejo

Bremen

Jobo Station

50 km

Canacol gas blocks

Pipeline expansion

Existing gas pipelines

7

Cartagena

Barranquilla

Guajira

16 70 81

113

150

205

>300

'12 '16 '17 '18 '19e '20e '23e

Page 8: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

2020 Capital Plan: Modest Spending, Lots of Exploration Drilling

$114 MM

(1)

2020 focus

• Drill 12 wells: 9 exploration, 1 appraisal and 2 development wells

• Execute definitive agreement to construct a new gas pipeline from Jobo to Medellin

• Continue growing focus on ESG monitoring, reporting, and improvement

• Generate free cash to support dividends, share buy-back, and debt reduction

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$ in MM

Maintenance and development drilling; $19

Exploration wells and seismic; $72

Facilities and infrastructure; $11

Admin, ESG and other; $12

Page 9: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Canacol’s Financial Policy

Canacol’s new quarterly dividend

• US $28MM per annum

• ~4.7% yield (as of Feb 25, 2020)

• First Record | payment date: 12/16/19 | 12/31/19

Return-focused, LT value from free cash flow

• Debt reduction

• Up to 14.1 MM share buyback in place

Conservative financial profile

• 2.3x consolidated leverage ratio(1) as at Sep 30, 2019

• 1.1x consolidated leverage ratio estimate: Dec 31, 2020

Capex plan targeting <50% of annual EBITDA

• $114 MM annual capex budget

• ~$265 MM EBITDA projection

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TSX: CNE | BVC: CNE.C

‘20e Free Cash Flow Waterfall

US$MM

$270 $30

$40

$120

$80

Please see EBITDA and Funds from Operations disclosure in the forward lookingstatements located on page 2 of this presentation.

Assumes average annual gas production of 205 MMcf/d at $4.80/Mcf averagewellhead price.

$114

~$80

~$40

$265 ~$30

(1) Consolidated leverage ratio is the ratio of consolidated total debt, less cash andcash equivalents, to EBITDAX for the preceding 12 months.

Page 10: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Industry-Leading Exploration Success Utilizing AVO

1 KM

Uncalibrated 3D Calibrated 3D for AVO analysis

Arandala-1

Carambolo-1

AVO extraction over Porquero formation

Includes pay in ft. TVD

Discovery

Prospect

Nuez-1

Datil-1

Cacahuate-1

10

Toronja-114 ft.

Nelson-579 ft.

Nelson-639 ft.

Applying AVO to investigate presence of gas-charged sandstones

Breva-129 ft.

Canacol with AVO 22 for 24 (92%)Canacol total 27 for 31 (87%)

Page 11: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

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Land & Conventional Natural Gas Resource Upside

(1) Block/net acres includes 3 additional blocks acquired in ANH 2019 Bid Round PPAA-2. Blocks are not represented on the map

(2) Gross mean un-risked prospective resources for conventional natural gas report prepared by Gaffney Cline & Associates, effective 12/31/2017

(3) Track record reflects drilling success over period 2014 to present

Land(1)

• # Exploration contracts 8

• Net acres 1.4 MM

Running room along defined play fairways• Resource upside 2.6 TCF (2)

• # Prospects & Leads 140• # Gas fields 16• Processing capacity 330 MMcf/d

Track record (3)

• Exploration wells 20/24 (83%)• Development wells 8/8 (100%)• Total wells 28/32 (88%)

SSJN7CNE Operator

50%WI

VIM21100%WI

VIM19100%WI

VIM5100%WI

Esperanza100%WI

Page 12: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

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2020 Drilling Campaign

12 Wells – All 100% Interest Owned and Operated

Well Well Type 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Rig 1

Nelson-14 Development

Clarinete-5 Development

Fresa-1 Exploration

Porro Norte-1 Exploration

Flauta-1 Exploration

Ocarina-2 Appraisal

Piccolo-1 Exploration

Cornamusa-1 Exploration

Rig 2

Milano-1 Exploration

Faisan-1 Exploration

Laguneta-1 Exploration

Saxofon-1 Exploration

Page 13: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

3Q ‘19 Financial Highlights

Key data

Revenues $55.1 MM, +25% y/y

EBITDAX $46.0 MM, +28% y/y

83% margin

Funds from operations $36.4 MM, +41% y/y

Working capital surplus $49.1 MM

Cash & equivalents $33.4 MM

40% reduction in OPEX

From $0.40 → $0.24 / Mcf(1)

29% reduction in G&A

From $3.14 → $2.22 /boe(1)

13(1)From 3Q ‘18 to 3Q ‘19

$43,9

$25,8

$36,0

$55,1

$36,4

$46,0

Revenues FFO EBITDAX

3Q '18 3Q '19

3 months ended 9/30/18 vs. 9/30/19

US$ in MM

+25%

+41%

+28%

Page 14: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Remarkable Stable Natural Gas Operating Model

Historical sales price and operating netbacksIn $/MCF

$5,27

$4,65

$4,39

$5,52

$4,87 $4,83 $4,83 $4,84

$4,42

$3,85 $3,62

$4,53

$3,89 $3,80

$3,88 $3,92

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 2Q '19 9m ended '19

Sales price, net of transportation Operating netback

$4.80 guidance

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Page 15: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

US $ in MM, except CDN $/share

TSX $/share (Feb 25, 2020) CDN $4. 43

Basic share count(1) 178.9

Market capitalization(2) $ 594

Net debt(1) $ 340

Enterprise value $ 935

Insider ownership 22%

(1) As of Sep 30, 2019(2) Converted from CDN → USD exchange rate (0.76) as of Feb 25, 2020

Capitalization Quarter end 3Q 2019 liquidity snapshot

• Senior notes (7.25%, 2025) $320 MM

• Term loan (6.875%, 2022) $30 MM

Financial Summary

15

$4,6

$33,4

$49,1

Restricted cash Cash &equivalents

Working capitalsurplus

Page 16: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Corporate Social ResponsibilityWe change the life of our communities

Fundación Entretejiendo is born from our interest to improve the life quality of the communities in our areas of influence

Projects

‘18-’19 Investment US$3.1MM 44% CNE56% Allied 1

Masificación de Gas

In partnership with Surtigas, we provide natural gas to local communities (> 7,500 people will no longer cook with coal and wood)

Pisotón

Emotional education programs for children

Live the young voice

Community leadership

My Postobón Bike

facilitates access to schools

Health Brigades

Project structuring with royalties

resources

(1) Surtigas, Patrulla Aerea, Fundacion Postobon, Universidad del Norte, Fundacion a la Rueda Rueda, Universidad de los Andes, Fundacion CedeSocial, Universidad Piloto

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Page 17: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

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APPENDIXUpcoming Drilling Activity

Page 18: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Clarinete-5 Development Well (PUD), VIM 5

18

Clarinete-1 Clarinete-2st Clarinete-4

Reservoir Cienaga de Oro Cienaga de Oro Cienaga de OroNet Pay (in ft. TVD) 148 127 297Porosity (%) 26% 23% 22%Test Rate (MMcf/d) 45 44 40

500 M

N

Clarinete Field (Depth Structure: Top CDO Blue SS3)

Clarinete-2ST

Well objective: Improve reservoir drainage (RF) ofunperforated gas-charged stratigraphic intervals in CDOreservoir sandstones situated in an up-dip structuralposition in the field

Clarinete-2STClarinete-1

Clarinete-4Clarinete-5

Section extract from field geostatic model. View from South

EW

PENETRATION PT FOR TOP BLUE SS3

CDO

Clarinete-1

Clarinete-4Clarinete-5

Clarinete-1Drilled 2015Current production 18 MMcf/dCumulative production 18 BCF

• Spud date March 2020

• Target depth 10,050 ft. MD

• Location target 30 ft. structurally up-dip and 770 m from Clarinete-4

• Cost (D&A) $3.9 MM

W E

Page 19: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

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Fresa-1 Exploration Well, VIM 21

Fresa-1 (Depth Structure: Top Intra CDO & AVO Extraction)

• Spud date April 2020

• Target depth 9,325 ft. MD

• Tie-in time Two weeks

• Cost (D&A) $3.9 MM

Well objective: Drill 3-way fault dependent closure to assess presence of CDO gas-charged reservoir sandstones supported by AVO methodology as defined on 3D seismic.

Fresa-1

BA

AVO event

Katana-1 (Fresa-1 Analogue)Reservoir Cienaga de Oro

Net Pay (Ft. TVD) 90

Porosity (%) 21.3

Test Rate (MMcf/d) Choke: 4.83 on 16/64”

Fresa-1

A

B

JOB-4 (11 BCF)

JOB-2

(D&A)

JOB-10 (15 BCF)

KAT-1 (2 BCF)

JOB-3 (D&A)

COR-2 (6 BCF) JOB-1 (7 BCF)

JOB-11 (17 BCF)

Penetration Pt. at

Top Intra CDO

1 KM

AVO event

JOB-8 (6 BCF)

JOB-9 (27 BCF)

Page 20: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Porro Norte-1 Exploration Well, VIM 5

20

A’

Line PO-1310-2011

A SAN BENITO-1

Porro Norte

Mid Miocene UC

Porro Norte-1

Porro-Norte-1 (Depth Structure: Top CDO) Well objective: Drill 4-way anticline with fault dependent upside to assess presence of gas in multiple stacked targets supported by AVO methodology as defined on 2D seismic.

• Spud date May 2020

• Target depth 12,353 ft. MD

• Reservoir targets CDO (Cicuco limestones)

Porquero & Tubara sandstones

• CDO Location target 600 ft. structurally up-dip and 1.5 km from Benito-1

• Tie-in time Six months

• Cost (D&A) $6.1 MM

Line PO-1040-2011

B’

BASEMENT

CIENAGA

Mid Miocene UC

Flauta

BASEMENT

Cicuco

Porro Norte

Mid Miocene UC

TUBARA

B Porro Norte-1

Contours 100’

3 Km

San Benito-1

Porro Norte-1

Page 21: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

APPENDIXNatural Gas Is The Future

• Natural gas is a clean, efficient and competitive energy source. Its use helps to improve airquality in cities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• Energy generation worldwide will be carried out mostly with natural gas.

Colombia´s natural gas demand 2000-2032(1)

MMscfpd

(1) UPME Gas Demand Projection, December 2019, Medium Case, (2) EIA

World energy production(2)

BTUs Trillions

Natural gas

Oil

Renewables

21

0

500

1,000

1,500

1999 2009 2019 2029

Power Residential Commercial

Industrial Petroleum Other

Page 22: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

APPENDIXManaging Risks

Macro Risks

1. Geopolitical

• Market/sector-friendly Colombia President for the next 3 yrs.

2. Regulatory

• South America’s most stable democracy and regulatory framework

3. Commodity

• Near zero exposure to the commodity

Economic/Social Risks

1. Commercial

• Solid top tier off-takers

• Limited competitors

2. Economic

• Fixed price long term contracts provide security and stability

• Experienced and self-funded low cost operator

Operations Surface & Subsurface Risks

1. Operational

• Best industrial & safety practices

• Exceeding production and processing capacity

2. Reserves

• Discovered ~530 BCF in the last 8 yrs.

• Industry leading drilling success rate (87%)*

• Low F&D costs $0.32 - $0.67/Mcf

3. Resource

• Relatively unexplored acreage position with 140 prospects/leads representing 2.6 TCF in resource potential

* Represents exploration, appraisal and development drilling success rate 22

Page 23: Corporate Presentation February 2020 - Canacol Energy · Corporate Presentation February 2020. Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include certain forward looking statements.

Carolina Orozco

Vice President, Investor Relations

+44 (0) 755.537.3873

[email protected]

Phil Heinrich

Investor Relations Manager

+1.403.269.1754

[email protected]

Mauricio Hernandez

Investor Relations Manager

+571.621.1747

[email protected]