CORPORATE  FORESIGHT  model  applicable  to  SMEs  as  a  tool  for  innova?on-­‐oriented  

planning  Researcher:  Fernando  Ortega,  MBA,  DBA  (c)  

UNIVERSITY  OF  LIMA  (PERU)  

Fernando  Ortega  (Peru)  •  Born in Lima (Peru). •  Training in Foresight at APEC Centre

of Technology Foresight (Thailand), leaded by Dr. Ron Johnston) and at former PREST Institute of Manchester University (U.K.), leaded by Dr. Denis Loveridge.

•  Associated Professor and Researcher at University of Lima (Peru).

•  International lecturer on technological and social futures in different Latin American countries.

Can  SMEs  use  foresight  for  their  planning  process  without  external  support?  Foresight   has   been   widely   used   by   large   corpora?ons   for  their  planning  processes  and   the   iden?fica?on  of  priori?es  for   innova?on.   However,   SMEs   have   not   been   using    foresight   due   to   the   high   costs   of   the   involved   consul?ng  services.  This  research  developed  by  the  University  of  Lima  (Peru)  proposes  a  simple  methodology  for  SMEs  execu?ves  to   perform   a   prospec?ve   full-­‐process,     basically   using   the  MS  EXCEL   soSware  and  without  hiring   specialized  external  support.    

   

ENVIRONMENTAL  SCANNING  

SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICALVALUES  &  ATTITUDES

TRENDS  ANALYSIS  

DELPHI  METHOD  

HIGH MEDIUM LOW HIGH MEDIUM LOWALREADY  HAPPENED

THIS  OR  NEXT  YEAR

2-­‐3  YEARS  AHEAD

4-­‐5  YEARS  AHEAD

6-­‐7  YEARS  AHEAD

8-­‐9  YEARS  AHEAD

10  YEARS  AHEAD

MORE  THAN  10  YEARS  AHEAD

NEVER  WILL  HAPPEN

IMPORTANCE

STATEMENTS

EXPERTISE  ON  THE  STATEMENT

POSSIBLE  DATE  OF  OCCURRENCE  OF  THE  EVENT

STRUCTURAL  ANALYSIS  

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 Σ  DEPENDENCED1D2D3D4D5

Σ  INFLUENCE

IDENTIFICATION  OF  UNCERTAINTY  AXES  

D2 D5

D1 D3 D7

D4 D6

SCENARIOS  IDENTIFICATION  &  ASSESSMENT  

SCENARIOS AXE  1 AXE  2 AXE  3 DESIRABILITY PROBABILITY GOVERNANCE

A + + +B + + -­‐C + -­‐ +D + -­‐ -­‐E -­‐ + +F -­‐ + -­‐G -­‐ -­‐ +H -­‐ -­‐ -­‐

RANKING  OF  SCENARIOS

The  results  and  conclusions  

ENGLISH  VERSION  

THANK  YOU  

Fernando Ortega fortegas@ulima.edu.pe