CORP SymposiumFort Collins, COAugust 16, 2006

Session 3: NPOESS AND GOES-R Applications

Tropical Cyclone ApplicationsRay Zehr, NESDIS / RAMM

• Introduction• Satellite Data Types• Tracking and Intensity

– Center location (fixing)– Intensity estimates

• Dvorak Technique• Objective Dvorak Technique• Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)

• Short Range Forecasting– Intensity

• Current trends• Vertical Shear (Asymmetry)• Sea-surface Temperature• “Rapid” Intensification

– Track• Water vapor image applications / Recurvature

• Structure– Outer Winds– Surface Wind Analysis (RMW, Size)– Related structures and weather systems

• Subtropical Cyclones • Hybrid Tropical Cyclones• Extratropical Transition• Landfall

Future Satellites

• ……will have better resolution …– both in space (spatial)– and in time (temporal)

Super Rapid-scan Operations (SRSO)

• Animations of 1-minute interval visible images

• Comparison with 30-minute interval

• Meso-vortices within the hurricane eye

Multi-Spectral Views of Hurricane Katrina(from www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html)

VisibleGOES

IR (10.7 m)GOES

Microwave:DMSP SSMI

85 Ghz/H

QuikSCATOcean Surface

Winds

Hurricane Stan 2005 Example

IR

Visible

TRMM 37 GHz V AMSR 89 GHz H

SSM/I Microwave 85Ghz

Atlantic Hurricane Size Differences

Cindy 1999 Iris 2001

Intensity: 120 kt Intensity: 125 kt

Average R-34 kt: 231 nmi Average R-34 kt: 69 nmi

R-50 kt: 144 nmi R-50 kt: 23 nmi

Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Intensity Estimates

• AMSU retrieval techniques provide 3-D temperature/moisture fields – ~50 km horizontal, 3 km vertical resolution– Microwave measurements penetrate through cloud tops

• Individual channels correlated with layer temperatures

• CIRA algorithm uses T retrieval input for max wind estimate– Operational at NCEP/TPC for 2006 season – Also estimates radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds

• CIMSS algorithm uses two channels to estimate MSLP– Includes correction for instrument resolution limitations

4. Tropical Cyclone Product Development

• HES studies with AIRS– Storm environment evaluation with GPS sondes

from NOAA Jet– Hurricane eye soundings– Evaluation of Saharan Air Layer

• Joint project with Hurricane Research Division

• ABI studies– Evaluation of Dvorak EIR technique

• Joint project with National Hurricane Center

– Genesis and intensity change studies with MSG data

NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT: A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE PLATFORM

NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT: A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE PLATFORM

GPS Sondes from the G-IV• T, moisture, wind sounding• 5 meter vertical resolution • Limited to a few flights per year

Hurricane Emily 7/16/05 1800Z

AIRS Granules and GPS Dropsondes

HES Soundings in Storm Environment

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Relative Humidity (%)

Pre

ssu

re (

hP

a)

GPS

Old AIRS

New AIRS

Soundings from AIRS, Eta Model Analysis, and NOAA Jet in Lili Environment

HES Hurricane Eye Soundings• Preliminary positive results reported on single

Isabel case with AIRS• New study with 6 cases from Isabel/Lili• Much larger data set being collected

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MS

LP

Err

or

(hP

a)

Errors of Eye Sounding Minimum Pressure Estimates

HES Analysis of Saharan Air Layer

• Jason Dunion (HRD) collected GPS sondes for SAL case – Tropical Storm Irene 2005

• AIRS and current GOES sounder retrievals will be compared

MSG Channel 6 for TS Irene GSP Sonde Locations

ABI Intensity Estimation

• Collaborative study with Jack Beven, NHC Forecaster

• 13 cases of Dvorak various scene types

• Proxy data collected• Jack ran Dvorak EIR with current

GOES and ABI resolution • Impact on cold ring and warm eye,

with some cancellation• Database will be greatly expanded

for AWG

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Case Number

Te

mp

era

ture

Dif

fere

nc

e (

C)

1-2 Eye

1-4 Eye

1-2 Ring

1-4 Ring

Warm eye and cold ring TB

differences 1, 2, 4 km resolution

Hurricane Wilma 2005 Before Yucatan Landfall

MODIS 1 km IR Window Channel Degraded to GOES 4 km resolution

Outer Wind Structure

• Satellite methods for wind structure analysis– Active (QuikSCAT) and passive (Windsat)

microwave methods– GOES feature track winds– SSM/I wind speed algorithms– AMSU wind retrievals (experimental)– GOES IR statistical methods (experimental)

R34 175 180 125 185R50 120 115 80 125R64 80 65 60 60

From this analysis

R34 150 120 100 150R50 100 90 70 90R64 80 60 45 55

18 UTC NHC advisory

Combined Wind Analysis

Experimental combined wind analysis will be available soon fromhttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/

Wind Radii

Tropical Cyclone Soundings from ATMS/CrIS

• Temperature/moisture soundings in storm environment for track prediction

• Hurricane eye soundings for intensity monitoring

• Balanced wind retrievals for storm structure analysis

• Proxy data from AIRS/AMSU and numerical model analysis

Florida LandfallsCharley 2004 and Wilma 2005

Storm Structure Analysis

• Large variability in outer circulation size• JTWC interest in 50 kt wind radii for ship

routing• NHC interest in 34 kt radii for evacuation

planning, 64 kt winds for hurricane warnings

• NPOESS wind radii methods:– Ocean surface winds from CMIS– ATMS/CrIS balance winds

Summary

• NPOESS holds great promise for hurricane analysis and forecasting

• Temporal resolution is good match for most processes

• VIIRS, ATMS/CrIS, CMIS and altimeter all useful• Track forecasting, intensity and structure

monitoring• Assimilation in numerical forecast models• NPOESS TC proxy data/algorithm development

web site under development at CIRA