Jun 25, 2020 08:00 UTC

Corona virus: How it affects Norwegianseafood exports

The Norwegian Seafood Council receives many requests from media andindustry about how the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic affects Norwegianseafood exports and the operations of the Norwegian Seafood Council. Asthere are many uncertainties and the situation is constantly evolving, wehave created this page to give regular updates and analysis.

NSC status update as of 25 June:Exports of fresh salmon to China fell by 97 percent last week to 15 tonnescompared with the same week last year. Compared to week 24 this year, thedecrease was 94 percent.

"The sharp fall in weekly exports of salmon to China must be seen in light ofrecent outbreak of Covid-19 in Beijing and the effects this has had on thetrade and demand of salmon. Chinese authorities confirmed last weekthat salmon is not the source of infection for the outbreak and we can thussay that the situation is somewhat clearer. At the same time, it is too early tosay what effects the new outbreak will have on demand for fresh salmongoing forward," says Victoria Braathen, the Norwegian Seafood Council'sCountry Director in China. 

"As the situation gradually normalizes, we have great faith in the Chineseseafood market and further potential for Norwegian salmon here," saysBraathen. 

So far this year, Norway has exported 9 958 tonnes of fresh salmon to China.This is a decrease of 13 percent compared to the same period last year.Salmon exports down 3 percent last week Last week there was a decrease insalmon exports of 3 percent measured in round weight* to 22 883 tonnes. 

Exports of fresh whole salmon to Asia fell by 38 percent last week, whileexports of fresh whole salmon to the EU fell by 1 percent compared to thesame week last year.

The average export price for fresh whole salmon last week was NOK 61.90per kilo. This is 5 percent lower than the same week last year. The exportprice to the EU measured in euros was 13 percent lower last week, at 5.65euros per kilogram.

"We see that when the price falls, higher volumes go to processing marketssuch as Poland and Lithuania. Last week, exports of fresh whole salmon toPoland increased by 24 percent and 5 percent to Lithuania,” says PaulAandahl, Seafood Analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council. 

"Salmon exports to Asia has been weaker than last year since week 23, whichmust be seen in the context of the strong price increase for large salmon andthe recent outbreak of the Coronavirus in Beijing. Exports of fresh salmon toAsia have fallen by 23 percent in the last three weeks. In the same period,exports to the EU increased by 1.5 percent. The export share to the EU was80 percent last week, compared with 75 percent the same week last year.Salmon exports fell to all markets in Asia last week, with the exception ofSouth Korea, “ Aandahl said. 

*The sum of the export of fresh whole salmon, fresh fillet of salmon, frozenwhole salmon and frozen fillet of salmon converted to round weight. 

Continued growth for frozen fillets of cod

Last week, exports of fresh whole cod fell by 22 percent to 260 tonnes.Exports of frozen whole cod increased by 58 percent to 852 tonnes, whileexports of frozen fillets of cod increased by 104 percent to 282 tonnes. Thesefigures are compared to week 25 in 2019. 

“The growth in exports of frozen fillet of cod continues. This is due to theincreased demand for prepackaged products in the retail sector in several ofthe main cod markets," says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, Seafood Analyst at theNorwegian Seafood Council. 

Exports of cod clipfish increased by 46 percent in week 25 to 564 tonnes, andclipfish of saithe grew 33 percent to 697 tonnes.

"Although there has been an increase in exports of cod clipfish in recentweeks from very low volumes in May, export volumes so far this year are stillbelow last year," Pettersen says.

Read more about the recent outbreak for Covid-19 in Beijing, and the NSC'sresponse.

NSC update as of 18 June:

On Thursday last week, new cases of Covid-19 were reported in Beijing andthe outbreak was linked to the capital's largest food market, Xinfadi. Inlooking for the source of the infection, imported goods were mentioned inmany media stories, which also affected Norwegian salmon.

On Wednesday, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Preventionruled that salmon is not the source of infection for the outbreak.

Norwegian seafood exporters have reported logistical challenges exportingto Beijing. Due to the new outbreak of infection, a number of flights to andfrom Beijing have also been cancelled.

"With price increases in the price of salmon to China in recent weeks, wehave seen a decrease in the total export of fresh whole salmon. Last week,exports of fresh whole salmon to China fell by 34 percent to 240 tonnes. It istoo early to say what impact the new outbreak of infection in Beijing willhave on salmon exports," said Victoria Braathen, the Norwegian SeafoodCouncil's Country Director in China.

Salmon price reaches NOK 70 per kilo 

“The average export price for fresh whole salmon last week was NOK 70 perkilo. That is the same level as last year, and the highest export price recordedsince the start of the corona period in week 9, when the salmon price wasNOK 72.85 per kilo," says Paul Aandahl, Seafood Analyst at the NorwegianSeafood Council.

Salmon exports increase In the corona period from week 9 through week 24,salmon exports were at the same level as last year. Last week there was a 9percent increase in salmon exports measured in round weight to 24 021tonnes*.

"The development in salmon exports to Asia has been weaker in recentweeks, while exports to the EU have increased. Exports of fresh wholesalmon to Asia fell by 14 percent last week, while exports to the EU increasedby 16 percent last week from the same week last year,” Aandahl said.

*Note that we compare against a week with only 4 working days last year(week 24 2019 was the week of 2nd Pentecost Day)

Salmon exports to Italy up 60 percent 

"Italy has been hit hard by the corona outbreak and the country has graduallystarted reopening with restaurants and sushi outlets reopening on 3 June. Wesee that salmon exports are starting to recover from the low point in week12. In the last three weeks, exports of fresh whole salmon to Italy haveincreased by 60 percent and for the first time since the corona outbreakbegan, weekly exports of fresh whole salmon surpassed last year’s,” saidTrym Eide Gundersen, the Norwegian Seafood Council's country director inItaly.

Decrease for fresh cod and continued growth for frozen fillets

So far this year, exports of fresh whole cod are on par with last year. Duringthe corona period from week 9 through week 24, exports fell by 6 percent,and the fall came early in the period. Last week, exports of fresh whole codfell by 28 percent to 270 tonnes. “Reduced catches of cod led to a fall inexports of fresh whole cod last week. This has also contributed to a slightincrease in prices since the base listing in week 22. The average export pricelast week was NOK 35.83 per kilo. This is despite the fact that the NOK hasstrengthened in recent weeks. The price is still lower than the same periodlast year, and testifies to a continued challenging situation in the markets,"says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at the Norwegian SeafoodCouncil.

So far this year there has been an increase in exports of frozen whole cod of4 percent. During the corona period from week 9 through week 24, exports offrozen whole cod have increased by 23 percent. Last week, exports of frozenwhole cod increased by 186 percent compared to week 24 in 2019.

So far this year, exports of frozen fillet of cod have increased by 3 percent to6 600 tonnes, compared to the same period last year. In the corona periodfrom week 9, exports have increased by 11 percent. In the past eight weeks,exports have been significantly above the same period last year. Last week,exports of frozen fillets of cod increased by 273 percent compared to thesame week last year.

"Increased demand for prepackaged products in retail in several of the maincod markets has contributed to growth in exports of frozen fillet of cod overthe past eight weeks. In particular, we have seen increased demand for valueadded products, such as breaded cod. The reasons for this include less accessto fresh fish, and consumers' need for storage-friendly products," saysPettersen.

Challenging clipfish market

So far this year there has been a decrease in exports of salted whole cod andclipfish of cod by 9 percent and 20 percent respectively. During the coronaperiod from week 9, exports of salted whole cod have fallen by 12 percentand cod clipfish have fallen by 26 percent.

Exports of salted whole cod decreased by 52 percent in week 24 compared tothe same week last year. In the same period, exports of cod clipfish decreasedby 6 percent.

"Although exports have been growing in recent weeks from very low volumesin May, export volumes are still below last year. The increased volumes haveled to a fall in prices measured in NOK compared to the start of the year. Lastweek, the average export price for cod clipfish was NOK 82.49 per kilo, whichis 8 percent lower than week 23 this year and 2 percent lower than the sameweek last year. This is the first time the price of clipfish has fallen below lastyear," says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at the NorwegianSeafood Council.

Exports of clipfish of saithe have fallen by 5 percent so far this year. Duringthe corona period from week 9 to week 24, exports increased by 6 percent,and last week exports of clipfish of saithe increased by 8 percent.

"In recent weeks there has been steady growth in exports of clipfish of saitheto both Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. Although prices are still abovelast year, measured in NOK, we see prices falling from the high levels earlierthis year. The situation in Brazil remains challenging, and we have notregistered any exports to this market in recent weeks," Pettersen says.

NSC update as of 28 May:NSC’s seafood analysts Paul Aandahl and Ingrid Kristine Pettersen summarizekey features in the development of Norwegian seafood exports so far:

• Prepackaged seafood products have been the winner during thispandemic. While seafood products usually sold to the hard hitrestaurant markets are assumed to make a recovery long term,weaker puchasing power in the markets will prove a challengefor many traditional seafood products such as clipfish, saltfishand stockfish.

• Eating seafood at home has increased in most markets. Howmuch this has compensated for the reduced restaurant tradevaries.

• Increased sales in online channels. For example, in South Korea,it is reported that it is especially the sale of healthy foods that isincreasing online. It seems people are more concerned witheating foods they think are good for their health and immunesystem - such as fish, fruit and vegetables, and that consumersare even more concerned about food safety.

• We expect weakened purchasing power in the markets. Increasedunemployment means people have less disposable income. It isuncertain how this will affect the consumption of the variousseafood products.

• For clipfish of both cod and saithe, saltfish and stockfish, there isa great deal of uncertainty as to how this reduced purchasingpower in the main markets will affect demand and exports in thefuture.

• As the restaurant market gradually reopens in different markets,we will see an increase in seafood exports. Restricting freedomof movement and curfews have been important instruments forlimiting infection in several countries. In France, somerestrictions were eased from 11 May, and restaurants and cafesare set to start reopening from 2 June in regions where infectionrates are low.

• Despite increased shipping rates to overseas markets, we areseeing a shift in the flow of fresh salmon towards Asia. This isdue to growth in markets that have largely started with gradualreopening after the corona epidemic, such as China, Hong Kongand South Korea. 

Price increase and decrease in volume for salmon exports

So far this year we see that salmon exports measured in round weight are atthe same level as last year, so far this year 454 000 tonnes of salmon havebeen exported.

There was an 11 percent decrease in exports of fresh whole salmon lastweek, compared to week 22 last year*. Exports of fresh fillet increased by 17percent, frozen fillet increased by 54 percent. 21 776 tonnes of salmon wereexported last week. This is a 6 percent decrease from week 22 last year.

* Last week it was Christ's Ascension Day, and normally 4 working days so thecomparison is with the corresponding week last year, i.e. week 22 2019.

“The price growth for fresh whole salmon continues. The average export pricefor fresh whole salmon last week was NOK 65.45 per kilo. This is an increaseof 6 percent from the same week last year. However, the price is lower thanat the same time last year measured in euros," says Paul Aandahl, seafoodanalyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

"For the first time since the corona pandemic outbreak started in Week 9, wesee the salmon price exceeding last year's price for the same week," saysAandahl.

"We are seeing a continued positive development in the export of freshwhole salmon to processing markets such as Poland and the Netherlands.The export of fresh salmon fillet helps stabilize exports to key overseasconsumer markets such as the United States and Japan and to largerconsumer markets in Europe such as France, Aandahl said.

For the US, fresh fillet exports has increased by 57 percent since week 14.After a sharp reduction in shipping capacity to the US from week 12, exportsof whole fresh salmon in particular have been challenging.

Continued volume growth and fall in prices for fresh cod

So far this year we see exports of fresh whole cod is on par with last year. Inthe corona period from week 9 to week 21, exports fell by 6 percent,especially early in the period.

Exports of fresh cod increased by 31 percent last week. In addition toDenmark, which is a traditional reloading market, fresh whole cod wasexported to Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden.

So far this year we are seeing a fall in exports of frozen whole cod by 4percent. However, exports of frozen whole cod increased by 12 percent from

week 9 to week 21. Last week, exports of frozen whole cod fell by 30 percentcompared to week 21 last year. Exports of frozen fillet, not block, increasedby 108 percent in week 21.

“Last week we saw a growth for fresh whole cod, haddock and saithe. Fallingdemand in the markets has influenced the price development, primarily forfresh products. Despite a very weak Norwegian krone, we see a significant fallin prices measured in NOK. The price is now 6 percent lower than at the sametime last year, while the price has fallen by 34 percent from a historicallyhigh level in Week 1," says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at theNorwegian Seafood Council.

Still challenging in conventional markets, with some exceptions

So far this year there has been a decrease in exports of salted whole cod andclipfish of cod by 4 percent and 17 percent respectively. In the corona periodfrom week 9, exports of salted whole cod have fallen by 22 percent and codclipfish by 7 percent.

Exports of salted whole cod increased by 2 percent last week compared tothe same week last year, while exports of cod clipfish decreased by 81percent.

Exports of clipfish of saithe have fallen by 7 percent so far this year. In thecorona period, from week 9 to 21, exports increased by 5 percent, and inweek 21, exports of clipfish of saithe increased by 58 percent. Congo was thelargest market in week 21, followed by the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

"The decline in exports of cod clipfish started in earnest around Easter, whileexports of salted whole cod had volume growth up to week 17 compared tothe same period in 2019. For clipfish of cod, prices have remained high,measured in NOK, while saltfish prices started to fall as early as week 18.Brazil and Portugal are the two largest markets for cod clipfish. Expectationsof reduced demand in Portugal over the next few months and near-fullstoppages in the Brazilian market continue to contribute to great uncertaintygoing forward," says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at theNorwegian Seafood Council.

“Brazil is experiencing three crises at the same time; a social, an economicand a political crisis that is expected to affect the economy and consumerdemand for a long time to come. At the same time, demand in the Dominican

Republic and Jamaica has been stable until now compared to last year. Bothmarkets have been affected to a small extent by the coronavirus. Althoughthe markets are relatively tourist-dependent, it is not expected to affect theeconomy or demand for clipfish of saithe much going forward," says ØysteinValanes, the Seafood Council's fisheries envoy to Brazil.

On 4 June, the Seafood Council summarizes the development in seafood exportsso far this year, including the month of May.

NSC status update as of 14 May"We are seeing major changes in the flow of goods for fresh whole salmon asa result of the corona situation. As an example, last week there was 20percent growth in exports to the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, whileexports to Italy declined by 29 percent and Lithuania by 31 percent”, saidPaul T. Aandahl, seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

“Exports of fresh whole salmon to Asia increased by 1 percent last weekcompared to the same week last year. Three markets in particular have stoodout positively recently, China, Hong Kong and Israel. Exports of fresh salmonfillets to Israel have increased by 144 percent from week 10 to week 19. Forfresh whole salmon, however, there was a decrease of 14 percent. Exports toIsrael overall for fresh salmon, whole and fillet, the increase was 28 percentin the last ten weeks to 2 561 tonnes,” Aandahl says.

Chinese marked for salmon in good shape

"The Chinese market is going very well for Norwegian salmon with a growthof 44 percent in the last six weeks. This may show an underlying stronger

demand than was the expectation for 2020. Helped by low prices, the lastfew weeks show a significant growth in Norwegian salmon to China," saysVictoria Braathen, the Seafood Council's fisheries envoy to China.

French restaurants still closed as market slowly ease restrictions

Exports of fresh whole salmon to France decreased by 6 percent last week,while exports of fresh fillet fell by 8 percent, compared with the same weeklast year.

“While most French shops were allowed to reopen from Monday this week,restaurants and cafes are still closed. A gradual reopening will only bedecided at the end of May and will depend on developments in regionaltransmission of Covid-19. Take away and home delivery is still possible andstaff canteens can now open to employees," says Trine Horne, the SeafoodCouncil's fisheries envoy to France.

"We see that the French seafood processing industry is operating more or lessas normal but following national infection control measures. The large fishsmokers are open, producing as normal for this time of year. The grocerysector operates with strict infection control measures and we are seeing acontinued shift towards pre-packaged products in retail. Both salmon and codhave been given more shelf space than before with portion packs. The freshfood counters that were closed down earlier in the outbreak have now largelyreopened,” Horne said.

"However, increased home consumption in France has so far notcompensated for the loss of the restaurant segment. It will therefore beinteresting to follow how things develop in the restaurant segment whengradual reopening likely starts in June," concludes Horne.

Fillet export growth results in inceased bi-product exports

There was a decrease of 2 percent in the export of fresh whole salmon to 16004 tonnes in week 19.

Fresh fillet increased by 16 percent and frozen fillet increased by 105percent. Frozen whole salmon fell by 1 percent to 213 tonnes. In total, 22645 tonnes of salmon were exported last week. This is a 4 percent increasefrom the same week last year.

“There was growth in exports of both fresh and frozen fillet of salmon lastweek. We see that an increase in fillet production also results in an increasein the export of by-products. Frozen by-products of salmon increased by 15percent in week 19," says Paul T. Aandal, seafood analyst at the NorwegianSeafood Council.

The average export price for fresh whole salmon was NOK 54.89 per kilo inweek 19, a decrease of 11 percent from the same week last year. For trout,trout fell by 23 percent to NOK 46.21.

Volume growth and fall in prices for fresh cod

Based on the weekly statistics, there has been a 1 percent fall in exports offresh whole cod so far this year. In the corona period from week 9 to week 19,exports fell by 8 percent. Exports of fresh cod increased by 60 percent inweek 19 to 1055 tonnes. In addition to Denmark, which is a traditionalreloading market, cod exports predominantly went to the Netherlands and

Germany in week 19.

Based on the weekly export data, there is a fall in exports of frozen wholecod by 2 percent so far this year. However, exports of frozen whole cod haveincreased by 16 percent from week 9 to week 19. Last week, exports of frozenwhole cod increased by 3 percent compared to the same week last year.Exports of frozen fillet, both block and non-block, increased by 208 percentand 15 percent respectively last week.

"The large increase in exports of fresh whole cod seen measured against thisweek last year should be seen in the context of the annual seafood expo inBrussels was held in week 19 last year. Traditionally, this is a week withlower exports. The average export price for fresh whole cod fell by 6 percentto NOK 33.70 per kilo in week 19 compared to the same week last year. Thisis also a significant fall from the high prices we saw earlier this year beforethe corona period occurred. This is despite a significant weakening of theNorwegian krone. The impression is that the fresh cod mainly goes to theprocessing market. The explanation is increased turnover of particularlyfrozen, processed or prepackaged products for grocery in several markets.This is also reflected in the growth in exports of frozen fillet products fromNorway, which have been growing for several weeks," says Ingrid KristinePettersen, seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Uncertainty in markets for conventional products

According to weekly export data, there is a fall in exports of salted whole codand cod clipfish of 2 percent and 6 percent respectively this year. Exports ofsalted whole cod fell by 52 percent last week compared with the same weeklast year. The export of clipfish of cod fell by 76 percent. There has been asignificant fall in exports of both products to Portugal in recent weeks.Exports of clipfish of saithe have fallen by 9 percent so far this year. In recentweeks there has been an increase in exports and in week 19 exports ofclipfish of saithe increased by 20 percent to 909 tonnes. Congo was thelargest market in week 19, while exports to Jamaica and the DominicanRepublic were on par with the same period last year.

"Great uncertainty in Portugal regarding future demand has contributed toreduced exports to this market in recent weeks. Prices remain high, measuredin NOK, but much of this can be attributed to the weak exchange rates. At thesame time, we see that exports of clipfish of saithe have grown in recentweeks compared to the same time last year. In recent weeks we have seenthat exports to Congo, Congo-Brazzaville and the Caribbean have increased.Although this is positive, there is still considerable uncertainty as to howfuture purchasing power will affect demand in these markets in the future,"Pettersen says.

“There is still good demand in Congo. This can partly be explained by the factthat clipfish of saithe have been defined as essential foods in both Congo-Brazzaville and Congo, and the import duty has been reduced," says TrondKostveit, the Seafood Council's fisheries envoy to West and Central Africa.

NSC update as of 30 April 2020"How the corona situation affects Norwegian seafood exports is differentfrom market to market. In some markets there is volume growth, while inothers there is a significant fall. So far we have seen a fall in demand forNorwegian seafood overall. For example, salmon export volumes are stable

while the price measured in Euro has fallen by about 30 percent. Theexpected fall in purchasing power also create uncertainty about futuredemand, for example for clipfish," says Tom-Jørgen Gangsø, director ofmarket insight and market access at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Lower export of whole salmon, increase for fresh and frozen fillets

"We are seeing a shift in salmon exports towards more processed products.This trend has strengthened throughout the corona period. Exports of salmonfillet to several of the overseas markets remain slightly better than the exportof fresh whole salmon to these markets. For example, we are seeing growthin Japan, Israel and South Korea," says Paul Aandahl, seafood analyst at theNorwegian Seafood Council.

So far in this period, from week 9 to week 17, we see a relatively stableexport volume for salmon, from 168 000 tonnes last year to 167 000 tonnesthis year. For fresh whole salmon that is a decrease of 2 percent, while forfresh fillet an increase of 8 percent and frozen fillet increased by 36 percent.Frozen whole salmon exports have decreased 30 percent in this period. ToAsia, exports of fresh whole salmon have declined by 6 percent this period,while the EU saw a fall in exports of 1 percent.

"The export of salmon to markets that process it for the grocery trade hasincreased during the corona period. Salmon exports to Poland and theNetherlands grew by 5 percent each and Lithuania has grown by 46 percent.We are also seeing growth in exports of fresh whole salmon to consumermarkets such as the UK (+5%) and Spain (+12%)," says Aandahl.

"Fresh salmon fillet exports to Sweden have grown by 23 percent in the lasttwo months. Whole sides of salmon fillet is one of the best-selling salmonproducts in Sweden and is often included in retail campaigns to bringshoppers to the stores. This week the chain Hemköp promotes this at SEK 99per kilo, which is the lowest price we have seen in several years," saysSigmund Bjørgo, the Norwegian Seafood Council's country director in

Sweden.

"Norway exported 16 092 tonnes of salmon last week. The average exportprice for fresh whole salmon was NOK 55.92. This is 18 percent lower thanthe same week last year. The price in Euro was 31 percent lower, at €4.87.After a marked fall in prices from week 9, we now see that the pricedevelopment for salmon is starting to flatten out," says Aandahl.

Continued fall for both fresh cod and clipfish

"The decline in exports of fresh whole cod during the corona period is due toboth reduced demand and reduced catches as a result of bad weather. Theshift in exports of fresh cod towards processing markets such as Poland andthe Netherlands also continued last week. Increased demand for frozen andfresh prepackaged products in grocery in several markets explains some ofthis growth," says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at the NorwegianSeafood Council.

"However, the growth in retail does not seem to outweigh the loss from themore or less full closure of the restaurant segment. This contributes to theprice fall measured in NOK, from historically high levels earlier this winter tothe same level as last year. This is despite a weak Norwegian krone,"Pettersen says.

Exports of fresh cod fell by 7 percent in week 17 compared to the same weeklast year, to 1 119 tonnes. In addition to Denmark, which is a traditionalreloading market, last week also saw growth in exports to the Netherlandsand Poland. Exports of frozen whole cod have been positive so far this year.Last week, exports of frozen whole cod increased by 26 percent compared tosame week in 2019. Exports of Skrei decreased by 43 percent in week 17compared to the same week the year before.

"We are now well into the final week of the Skrei season and exports for theseason are expected to fall significantly below last year's record volumes.Regardless of the weather, exports of cod have fallen significantly since thecorona restrictions were implemented. The main reason is reduced demandfrom the restaurant segment in key markets. At the same time, there has beena positive development for Skrei in grocery in Spain," Pettersen says.

“Cod clipfish exports fell by 51 percent in week 17 compared to the sameweek last year. The fall is most prominent to our main market Portugal, andwe see the same development for saltfish.

“The corona situation is causing increased unemployment and weakenedpurchasing power, and demand in the main market for clipfish is expected tobe affected by this in the future. At the same time, during the financial crisis,we saw that even with reduced purchasing power, consumers in thesemarkets prioritized buying clipfish," says Pettersen.

“Most households in Portugal believe that their daily routines will be affectedover the next two months. Economically, most consumers expect to cut backon their spending and be more cautious about personal consumption. Thedemise of the tourist and restaurant market over time, together with reducedpurchasing power, can lead to a decrease in the consumption of clipfish,” saysJohnny Thomassen, the Norwegian Seafood Council's country director inPortugal.

“As long as the corona restrictions continue in Brazil, and until Brazilians get

back to work, there will be significantly reduced demand for clipfish in themarket. Surveys show that 80 percent of Brazilians buy only basic goods as aresult of the crisis: rice, beans, potato and cheap animal proteins. At the sametime, during the financial crisis, even with reduced purchasing power,Brazilians prioritized buying clipfish. The sharpest oil price fall in moderntimes along with political instability further contributes to the fact that it willtake time for the Brazilian economy to pick up," says Øystein Valanes, theNorwegian Seafood Council's country director in Brazil. 

NSC update as of 23 April 2020*The week after Easter normally has 4 working days so we compare with thecorresponding week last year, meaning week 16 2020 against week 17 2019.

"There is now a strong growth in demand for prepackaged products in themarkets. This provides a new opportunity for the processing industry, both inNorway and internationally. Norwegian fish such as salmon and cod aresought-after raw materials for the production of packaged products for sale inthe grocery trade," says Paul Aandahl, seafood analyst with the NorwegianSeafood Council.

"After a very turbulent period, we see that the price drop for salmon isstarting to flatten out. There is still a large reduction in sales to individualmarkets, but at the same time there are several positive moves to track," saysAandahl.

-Total exports of fresh whole salmon to Asia as a region increased by 12 percent. We see an improvement in logistics. For example, exports to China offresh whole salmon increased by 137 per cent to 837 tonnes in week 16.Other markets that have a positive trend are Hong Kong, Taiwan and SouthKorea. These are markets where home consumption of Norwegian salmonmore than compensates for the loss of restaurant consumption," saysAandahl.

"After three weeks of higher exports than the corresponding weeks last year,we see that the Chinese market is fully back for Norwegian salmon. As Chinamoves towards a normalisation in activity levels and demand, we see noreason why this development should not continue," says Victoria Braathen,Norwegian Seafood Council director in China

"In markets in the EU we also see similar trends as in Asia. Norway have

exported more Norwegian salmon to Spain and the UK in recent weeks. Inboth of these markets, we see that salmon takes a greater share of the totalseafood consumption. This means that more and more people are choosingsalmon," says Aandahl.

Based on panel data from Kantar analytics, we see that in Spain there was anincrease in home consumption of salmon measured in volume of 12 per cent,while the value increased by 21 per cent, in the period week 9 to week 12. Inthe UK salmon increased by 18 per cent measured in volume, while the valueincreased by 20 per cent. The seafood category increased by 20 per centmeasured in both volume and value.

In France home consumption of salmon increased by 21 per cent in volume,while seafood increased by 11 per cent in the same period. Frozen cod filletincreased by 49 per cent.

"We observe that salmon have increased shelf space in store, while somefresh fish counters operate at reduced capacity," says Trine Horne, NorwegianSeafood Council director in France. "Convenience food still hold a strongposition, and increased availability of “ready to eat” products of both cod and

salmon contributes to an increase in home consumption. The strongestgrowth is for frozen products. Both salmon and cod products increase morethan the seafood category in general. During this period, the Seafood Councilhas conducted a skrei campaign with more than 4,000 stores, as well as goodvisibility on television, print and social media," says Horne.

"To the United States, it appears that the export volume of fresh salmon fillethas stabilised at the same level in recent weeks. Last week, 331 tonnes offresh salmon were exported to the United States. At the same time, exportsof fresh whole salmon have been reduced sharply as a result of the loss ofthe restaurant segment and appear to have stabilised. Previously, the exportof fresh whole salmon was 86 tonnes. This also reflects the air freightcapacity is available between Europe, primarily London and Amsterdam, andthe United States. At the same time, there is no doubt that the shippingcapacity places limits on the export ability to the United States," says EgilOve Sundheim, Norwegian Seafood Council director in US.

Fall in exports of saltfish and clipfish

Although exports of cod have gone relatively smoothly so far this year, thereis considerable uncertainty related to, among other things, developments inpurchasing power and demand. For example, after several weeks of growth,we now see a fall in exports of both saltfish and clipfish of cod," says IngridKristine Pettersen, seafood analyst with the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Exports of fresh cod increased by 31 per cent in week 16 compared to week17 in 2019 to 1577 tonnes. In addition to Denmark, which is a traditionalreloading market, there was growth in The Netherlands and Polandreprocessing markets in week 16. Exports of frozen whole cod have beenpositive so far this year. Last week, exports of frozen whole cod increased by53 per cent compared to week 17 in 2019. Exports of clipfish and saltfishdecreased by 53 and 33 per cent respectively, while exports of stockfish alsofell further by 98 per cent. 

NSC update as of 17th April 2020"Because a number of countries have introduced restrictions that hit therestaurant segment hard, we see shifts towards increased sales of Norwegianseafood in grocery, especially as prepackaged and frozen products in manymarkets. If we compare exports with Easter week last year (week 16), we seean increase in salmon and cod exports to processing markets such as Polandand the Netherlands. These are markets wish is repackaged into consumer

products for sale in retail," says Paul Aandahl, seafood analyst at theNorwegian Seafood Council.

“There was a 4 per cent decrease in fresh whole salmon exports during theEaster week. We are now seeing major changes in salmon exports betweendifferent markets compared to Easter week last year. This shows that there isa lot of volatility in the salmon market as a result of the corona situation,"says Aandahl. 

“Exports to the EU fell 4 percent for fresh whole salmon during the Easterweek. We see good export numbers to processing markets such as Poland,the Netherlands and Lithuania, and exports to individual markets such asSpain, the UK, Germany and Finland also grew, while there was a decline toFrance and Italy," says Aandahl.

Spaniards eat salmon at home

"Salmon is the favourite fish in Spain and we are seeing a turn to increasedhome consumption that has far compensated for the demise of the restaurantmarket in Spain. Exports of fresh whole salmon to Spain increased by 16percent during the Easter week," says Bjørn-Erik Stabell, the NorwegianSeafood Council's country director in Spain.

"Spain, however, is currently one of the hardest hit countries in the world inthe corona pandemic. It has also implemented some of the strictestrestrictions for its inhabitants. This, of course, affects all Spaniards who are intheir fifth week of lockdown and an analysis conducted by Kantar TNS shows,among other things, that 85 percent of Spaniards are concerned about theirfinances," says Stabell.

Positive signs in Asia

"The total export of fresh whole salmon to Asia was similar to Easter weeklast year, while three markets in particular stand out positively, China, HongKong and Taiwan," says Aandahl.

"As the Chinese market is now gradually returning to some normality, Norwaycontinues to strengthen its position in the Chinese salmon market. This isseen in growth over the past few weeks, and last week’s exports of 623tonnes represents an increase of 149 percent compared to the Easter weeklast year,” says Victoria Braathen, the Norwegian Seafood Council's countrydirector in China.

“Compared to Easter week last year, with exports of 11 993 tonnes, there wasa 4 percent decrease in exports of fresh whole salmon. Exports of freshsalmon fillet decreased by 5 percent, while exports of frozen fillet increasedby 123 percent to 1 027 tonnes,” Aandahl said.

“With an average export price for fresh whole salmon of NOK 59.40, therewas a 12 percent decrease in the average export price in week 15 comparedto the same week last year. Measured in Euro, the price fall is 33 percent,”says Aandahl

Cod exports increased during Easter week

“At 1 033 tonnes, fresh cod exports grew by 56 percent during Easter weekcompared to Easter week last year. In addition to Denmark, we also seegrowth in other processing markets such as the Netherlands and Poland. ForSkrei, there was also an 11 percent increase in Easter week to 131 tonnes,"says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at the Norwegian SeafoodCouncil.

"The growth is largely due to good weather and good deliveries of fresh codthroughout Easter week," Pettersen says.

Clipfish "more in demand than Easter eggs"

"The growth in exports of clipfish and saltfish also continued last week,measured against Easter week last year. On the other hand, we see asignificant fall in exports of stockfish, both in volume and price. This must beseen in the context of the major challenges facing the main market Italyduring the corona crisis in the country," Pettersen says.

“In Portugal, a lot of clipfish are traditionally eaten at Easter, and despitegreat uncertainty in connection with the corona crisis, it is reported that salesof clipfish went from normal to exceptionally good this year. One chainreported "greater demand for clipfish than Easter eggs," says JohnnyThomassen, the Norwegian Seafood Council's country director in Portugal.

“At the beginning of 2020, the Brazilian currency was already weak measuredagainst the US dollar. In March, it fell further as a result of the coronavirusand fall in oil prices. The 31 percent weakening of the currency has sharplyreduced the purchasing power of Brazilians, and clipfish faces lower marketdemand. So far this year the volume has been reduced by 26 percent and thevalue 22 percent," says Øystein Valanes, the Norwegian Seafood Council's

country director in Brazil.

"We are seeing continued price growth for most products measured in NOK,but there is a significant price drop measured in Euro especially for freshproducts compared to Easter week last year. The conventional products suchas clipfish and saltfish still hold high price levels also measured in othercurrencies," Pettersen adds.

NSC update as of 8th April 2020There is still considerable uncertainty around future demand and logisticsglobally. We are seeing tendencies towards a gradual normalization in Asiancountries such as China and South Korea.

“Easter sales are underway, and we see growth in demand for packagedseafood products in retail. In some markets, fresh fish sales are declining dueto the loss of the restaurant segment and restrictions in stores. People shopless often and buy products with a longer shelf life," says Paul Aandahl,seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Salmon exports decline week before Easter

If we compare with week 15 in 2019 which was the week before Easter lastyear, there has been a decrease of 15 percent in the export of fresh wholesalmon.

“There is usually an increase in salmon exports the week before Easter. Thisyear we see a decrease of 13 percent in round weight, compared to week 15in 2019. Norway exported 17 024 tonnes of fresh whole salmon in week 14.This is a decrease of 15 percent compared to week 15 in 2019," says Aandahl.

“With an average export price of NOK 64.27 in week 14, there was also a 6per cent decrease in the price," says Aandahl.

"Overall, exports of fresh whole salmon to the EU market increased by 1percent to 14 235 tonnes in week 14. There was growth in Lithuania (18%),Germany (14%), Finland (146%) and UK (25%), while there was a decline toPoland (8%), Italy (32%), France (16%), Spain (9%),” Aandahl said.

"Exports of fresh salmon fillets increased by 2 percent in week 14 to 1 801tonnes. For example, exports to the EU (7%), Japan (37%), Sweden (51%),

Israel (154%) and South Korea (25%),” Says Aandahl.

"There was a decrease of about 7 percent in the export of fresh whole salmonto Asia in week 14. For the first time since the Corona outbreak, exports toChina have surpassed the corresponding week in 2019. In week 14, exports offresh whole salmon to China increased by 32 percent to 572 tonnes. Therewas also growth in South Korea (4%) and Taiwan (2%). There was a decreasein the export of fresh whole salmon to Thailand (75%) and Malaysia (69%).The reason for the decline in Thailand is largely due to reduced demand fromthe tourism industry, while the decline in Malaysia is largely related to theloss of air freight capacity,” Aandahl said.

There was a 72 percent decline in exports of fresh whole salmon to theUnited States in week 14. This is due to reduced demand from the restaurantmarket and a sharp reduction in transport capacity from week 12.

Continued volume growth for frozen whole cod and clipfish

Norway exported 1 857 tonnes of fresh whole cod in week 14. This is anincrease of 16 percent from the same week last year. Exports of frozen wholecod increased by 65 percent to 1 007 tonnes in week 14. For fresh wholeSkrei, we see a decrease of 40 percent to 262 tonnes in week 14.

“Exports of fresh whole cod increased by 16 percent in week 14. The increaseis due to better weather and bigger catches of cod. The largest growth was inthe processing markets Netherlands and Poland, which produce frozenproducts for grocery to meet increasing demand," says Ingrid KristinePettersen, seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

“Although the price is still slightly higher in Norwegian kroner, pricesmeasured in Euro are considerably lower than week 14 last year. At the sametime, we see continued decline in exports of fresh Skrei as a result of the lossof the restaurant segment and limited selection of fresh fish around Europe,"says Pettersen

"Growth for frozen whole cod also continues in week 14, and we see a strongincrease of 128 percent to the UK. This is due to increased demand for frozenfish in grocery in the UK, while demand for the processing industry increasesaccordingly. For frozen cod, prices are increasing, also measured in othercurrencies such as the US Dollar and the British Pound," Pettersen says.

"We see a continued growth of 32 percent in clipfish exports to Portugal inweek 14. The price measured in NOK increases, while the price measured inEuro falls. For cod clipfish, we have seen a positive development overall sofar this year, but weak demand growth in some key markets createsuncertainty going forward. For saltfish, we see a 19 percent decrease inexports, while the price increases both in NOK and in Euro," says Pettersen. 

NSC update as of 1st April 2020Norway as a seafood-producing nation is proving itself highly adaptable inthe ongoing situation. The biggest challenges at the moment are related tothe closure of the restaurant segment globally, which hits individual playershard. There is still considerable uncertainty related to future demand andlogistics. We are seeing tendencies towards a gradual normalization in Asiancountries such as China and South Korea.

"As in previous weeks, we are seeing a continued reduction for fresh seafoodand an increase in frozen and conventional products," says Paul Aandahl,seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

"Easter sales are about to start in earnest and fresh salmon exports to the UKand Sweden increased by 27 per cent and 52 per cent respectively last week.Saltfish and clipfish also increased by 42 per cent and 23 per centrespectively in week 13. It is reported that planned Easter promotions ingrocery stores in several markets are going as normal. This helps to reducesome of the negative impact we have seen as a result of the loss of therestaurant segment," says Aandahl.

"The weak Norwegian krone continues to compensate for reduced demand. Inweek 13 we see a 22 percent reduction in the value of NOK against the euroand 27 percent measured against the US dollar. While the export price to theEU for fresh whole salmon fell by 10 per cent in NOK, the price measured ineuro was 27 per cent lower than last year," says Aandahl.

Continued decline in salmon exports - but growth in some markets

“Measured in round weight there was a 5 percent decrease in salmon exportsin week 13. For fresh whole salmon, the decrease was 10 percent, whileexports of fresh salmon fillet increased by 5 per cent and frozen fillet exportsincreased by 64 percent. The average export price for fresh whole salmondecreased by 9 percent to NOK 58.99 in week 13”, says Paul Aandahl, seafoodanalyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

"Salmon exports to Asia decreased by 8 percent in week 13. As in week 12,salmon exports to South Korea also increased in week 13. In week 13 itincreased by 13 percent to 508 tonnes. Salmon exports to Taiwan increasedby 40 percent to 202 tonnes in week 13”, Aandahl said.

"In China, we are seeing gradual steps towards a more normalised everydaylife. There has been a steady growth in salmon exports to China, from 10tonnes in week 5 to 519 tonnes in week 13. However, it is still 18 percentless than the same week last year. Week 13 in 2019 was also one of thestrongest weeks in all of 2019. The export of fresh salmon to China of 519tonnes in week 13 shows a market with gradually increased demand.Conditions this winter have favoured grocery and online sales, and we arenow seeing that some restaurants are on the way back. Still, severalprecautionary measures are in place and great attention is paid to how thepandemic evolves outside of China," said Victoria Braathen, the SeafoodCouncil's country director in China.

The EU market is predominantly a fresh market for Norwegian salmon. Intotal, salmon exports to the EU fell by 5 percent last week. Exports of freshsalmon decreased by 6 percent, while exports of frozen salmon increased by51 per cent. In week 13 there has been an increase in the salmon exports toseveral individual markets in Europe, such as Sweden (52 percent), Finland(34 percent and the UK (27 percent).

"Export volumes to Sweden have exceeded all expectations over the pastweek. Fresh salmon exports increased by 52 per cent last week, despite theclosure or reduced visitor numbers of many restaurants. It seems thatSwedish grocery has so far more than compensated for the decline of freshsalmon to the restaurant market," says Sigmund Bjørgo, the NorwegianSeafood Council's country director in Sweden.

"We see continued decline in the export of fresh whole salmon to France. Thedecrease was 31 percent in week 13. Home consumption in France does notcompensate for the closure of the restaurant market. Exports of salmon filletto France decreased by 58 percent in week 13 compared to the same weeklast year. In week 12, exports of salmon fillet were down by 8 percentcompared with the same week last year," says Trine Horne, the NorwegianSeafood Council's country director in France.

“There are still strict restrictions in place in France. The French are ordered to

stay at home and avoid contact with others. Only pharmacies and grocerystores are allowed to stay open. The requirement to keep a distance betweenpeople at least one meter means there are long queues to get into grocerystores. Up to several hours in larger stores such as hypermarkets andsupermarkets, and slightly shorter waiting times in smaller stores. Physicalbarriers have been set up in front of the few fresh produce counters that areopen. Pre-packaged products appear to be selling well and the traditionalfood markets are now also closed,” Horne said

"Exports of fresh whole salmon to the US continue to fall as a result of thesharp reduction in transport capacity. In week 13, exports of fresh wholesalmon to the United States fell by 94 percent. This is also due to large partsof the restaurant market in the US having closed for business. For freshsalmon fillet, the decrease was 41 percent in week 13. We expect thechallenges relating to logistics and reduced demand to continue here in theUS for some time, “says Egil Ove Sundheim, the Norwegian Seafood Council'scountry director in the United States.

White fish - fresh fish exports decline but increase for frozen, saltfish andclipfish

“The reduction in fresh fish exports affects most of our white fish species,including cod. In week 13 we see the largest fall for fresh whole cod that wehave seen so far, down 43 percent compared to the same week last year.After a very good start to the year for the export of fresh whole cod, we seethe fall that started in week 11 has continued into week 13,” says IngridKristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

"Both frozen whole cod and haddock have experienced significant growth inweek 13, by 28 and 80 percent respectively. The frozen cod is mainlyexported to China. A weak Norwegian krone contributes to prices in NOKremaining stable for both fresh and frozen products, compared to week 13last year," says Pettersen.

“Saltfish and clipfish exports continue the good development, especially toPortugal. There was a 17 percent increase in exports of clipfish to Portugal inweek 13, and a 47 percent increase in exports of saltfish. While the price inNorwegian kroner goes up, in Euro it remains relatively stable,” Pettersensays. 

The export figures for Q1 2020 will be published Friday 3rd April at

0600CET.

NSC Update as of 26th March 2020:The Norwegian seafood industry is proving very adaptable in this situation.The most pressing challenges at present relate to the more or less completeloss of restaurant trade globally, something which is severely affecting someproducers. It is also difficult to say how this crisis will affect future demandand logistics in this segment.

“Norwegian seafood exports have over several years been helped by a weakNorwegian currency. Nonetheless, the past weeks’ fall in oil prices andcurrency depreciation is extraordinary. Average currency rates for US dollarand Euro is down 27 and 22 percent respectively, compared to the same timelast year. Even if we see a price increase for several products in NOK, there isa considerate fall in prices for most seafood products measured in US dollarand Euro,” says Paul T. Aandahl, seafood analyst at the Norwegian SeafoodCouncil.

“There is increased uncertainty in consumers’ future purchasing power inseveral markets. We do not know exactly what consequences this will have,but it is likely to impact demand for Norwegian seafood. For example, duringthe global financial crisis the demand for salmon for home consumptionincreased, as less people dined out but rather wanted to enjoy good homecooked meals,” says Aandahl.

“In several of our most important export markets we have been told ofepisodes of supermarket hoarding and thus growth in retail sales. Thisgrowth is expected to slow as people eat the produce they have purchased.As the situation stands now, we can nonetheless expect that retail willremain strong, as people are eating at home rather in restaurants,” saysAandahl.

Salmon exports pivot to prepacked and processed products

In absolute volumes, there was a 3,6 percent decline in salmon exports inweek 12. For fresh whole salmon the reduction was 8 percent, whilst freshfillet exports increased by 28 percent. Frozen salmon fillet exports increasedby 17 percent compared to the same week in 2019.

“The Norwegian seafood industry has proven itself agile and adaptable in theface of the current challenges and has turned their production towards more

processed products. Whilst the export of fresh whole salmon to the EU hasfallen by 6 percent in week 12, we see growth of 16 and 63 percentrespectively to Poland and Lithuania. These are markets where Norwegiansalmon are processed and smoked before being sold to European markets,”says Aandahl.

“Despite a sharp decline in the sales of Norwegian salmon to the restaurantsegment in Asia, the total volumes of fresh whole salmon to Asia were almostthe same as last year. This is primarily because of strong growth in the take-away segment and increased sales in retail. China had a decline of 17 percentcompared with last year, however in South Korea exports have grown by 53percent,” says Aandahl.

“To the US market, where transport capacity for fresh salmon was severelyaffected in week 12, fresh Norwegian salmon exports fell by 89 percent,whilst fresh fillet exports remained at the same level,” says Aandahl.

Cod exports: Fresh cod is down, increase for saltfish and clipfish

“As expected, we saw another week of lower fresh cod exports and freshwhole Skrei in week 12. The fall was 29 and 15 percent respectivelycompared to the same week in 2019. At the same time, there is significantgrowth in frozen whole cod and clipfish exports. Several markets reportincreased demand for products with longer sell-by dates, such as frozenproducts and clipfish. To Portugal we see large volume growth, particularlyfor saltfish and clipfish of cod. China is the largest buyer of frozen wholecod,” says Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at the NorwegianSeafood Council.

"There is still a price growth in Norwegian kroner for all cod products, butboth in Euro and US dollar there is a significant price drop, especially forfresh whole cod and Skrei," Pettersen says.

"We are now in a period of low exports of stockfish, so sales are less affected.At the same time, it is now the season to hang the fish for sale in the autumnand Norwegian stockfish producers are very dependent on exports to Italyand Nigeria. The current situation in Italy and Nigeria creates uncertaintyaround future demand. Nigeria has an oil-dependent economy, which willalso affect the local currency and thus the purchasing power going forward.At the same time, there are reports of increased demand for products that canbe stored, such as stockfish and clipfish," says Pettersen.

UK: retail growth but Fish & Chips struggles

"We have so far not received any feedback on logistical challenges into theUK or a decline in exports. In the grocery store where the majority ofNorwegian fish are sold, we see seafood flying off the shelves and theproducers locally report that they have had significant increases in sales, butthat they are struggling to keep up with the increased demand. Cod, haddockand salmon sell well," says Hans Frode Kielland Asmyhr, the NSC’s UKdirector.

"The Fish & Chips industry is now to a large degree shutting up shop afternew strict measures were introduced this week. Importers and distributorsinto this segment are affected by this and we are likely to see a fall in exportsto this part of the market. The restaurant market is now also completelygone, which has consequences for Norwegian salmon and Norwegian freshwhite fish," says Asmyhr.

"Given the current situation, we expect to see growth in the food deliverysegment," says Asmyhr.

Germany: restaurants close and some delays in commodity flow

“Germany introduced stricter measures this week like in many other markets.The restaurant market is completely shut down, whilst take-away and fooddelivery remains open. Restrictions have also been imposed in grocery stores,with limitations on number of people in store at the same time and maximumnumber of products per person to avoid stockpiling,” says Gitte HannemannMollan, NSC country director in Germany.

"Currently it seems like there are close to normal volumes for fresh andfrozen seafood sold in the German market. Much of fresh salmon is sold aspre-packaged products," says Mollan.

“Last week there were reports of long queues via Poland to Germany whichcaused some delays in the flow of goods. This week, the EuropeanCommission proposed guidelines for reducing the declaration time for bordercrossings," Mollan said.

South Korea: restaurant segment is hit hard and online sales rocket

Norwegian seafood has a strong position in South Korea and in 2019 themarket was the second largest salmon market in Asia, the largest singlemarket for live king crab and the second largest consumer market for

Norwegian mackerel. Korea is a technologically advanced society, and theuse of online solutions is widespread.

"For salmon and mackerel, we see grocery stores taking a far greater share ofsales. The restaurant segment has been hit hard in Korea and for Norwegiansalmon this is traditionally the market, but we see the demand for salmon forhome consumption is increasing. During the first few months of 2020, we sawa strong increase in online sales of fresh salmon products and frozenmackerel," says Gunvar Lenhard Wie, the NSC’s country director for Japan andSouth Korea.

"The largest grocery chains report that sales of fresh food online haveincreased fourfold compared to the same period last year. A focus on healthand healthy foods means Norwegian seafood has an advantage and sales areincreasing, both in physical stores and online," says Wie.

"The biggest challenges are related to the logistics into the market asdemand from the grocery trade is high. The logistics situation for Korea wasdebated in Korean media on Monday, highlighting Norwegian salmon as asought-after commodity,” Wie said.

Japan: the end of conveyor belt sushi

"Japan was quick to implement restrictions to prevent early spread of theCorona virus. Like in many other markets Japanese consumers have reducedthe number of restaurant meals and increased grocery purchases. There is anincrease in online food trading and the players do not have the capacity torespond to demand as normal," says Gunvar Lenhard Wie, the NSC countrydirector for Japan and South Korea.

“One of the largest chains of "conveyor belt sushi," has stopped displayingsushi on the conveyor belts and has introduced digital menus instead,” Wiesaid.

"It is reported that seafood sales are maintained in retail and that processedand prepacked seafood products sell particularly well, for example frozenNorwegian mackerel fillets,” concludes Wie. 

NSC status update as of 20th March 2020The Covid-19 pandemic are causing big changes in consumer behaviour as

well as transport and logistics in many markets for Norwegian seafood. TheHoReCa (Hotels/Restaurants/Catering) sector is particularly affected, whilstretail and delivery services are reporting growth as a result of manycountries’ self-isolation and quarantining measures. A weaker Norwegiankrone is counteracting some of the effects of lower market demand atpresent.

Demand for Norwegian seafood varies between markets, species and whereNorwegian seafood is sold.

Europe:

-Despite increase in retail sales in Europe, we expect lower demand for fishand seafood as a result of lower turnover. The lower demand will first hitspecies such as king crab, quality labelled skrei and prawns usually sold inrestaurants. We have also been given indications that the increased insecurityin Europe means retail buyers look to limit the range of products in-store.This might also affect Norwegian seafood exports. Our country directors inthe European markets are reporting several fresh fish counters closing downand prepacked fresh seafood often being out of stock, says Paul Aandahl,seafood analyst at NSC.

Salmon exports:

Norway exported over 18 000 tons fresh whole salmon in week 11, anincrease of 24 percent compared to the same time last year. We see thestrongest growth in traditional processing markets for the EU market, such asPoland (+42%), Denmark (+93%) and Lithuania (+141%).

-The effects we have seen on export of fresh salmon in some markets as aresult of the virus outbreak so far, will continue to spread other markets asthe pandemic evolves. The global salmon market will have to manageincreased transport costs, changed consumption patterns and unpredictableprices, says Aandahl.

Cod exports:

The main cod season (Skrei season) runs from January to April. Between 30and 40 percent of fresh whole cod volumes are exported during these four

months.

-99 percent of Norwegian cod exports goes to fresh consumption ofprocessing in Europe. Large parts of the fresh cod category has fallen awaywith increased restrictions in several European markets. We are well into theseason, so the consequences are not as dramatic as they could have been ifthe Corona situation had happened earlier in the winter. Nonetheless, largeparties of cod will now go to other uses, such as salting and drying, saysIngrid Kristine Pettersen, seafood analyst at NSC.

-Reduced demand will lead to lower prices in the markets. We can alreadysee this in the stats for fresh cod exports in week 11, says Pettersen.

-Frozen products are more suitable for storing. In several markets we now seea shift from fresh to frozen fish, something we also saw in China earlier in theyear. Products like clipfish and stockfish also have the advantage that theycan be stored for longer periods of time without cooling. This is seen as apositive in a marketplace where people shop more infrequently, Pettersensays.

-Frozen, whole whitefish is primarily sold to processing industry in EasternEurope and China. In week 11 we saw increased exports of frozen whole cod,says Pettersen.

France:

France imposed strict measures to slow down the spread of the Corona virusthis week. People are required to stay at home and as much as possible avoidcontact with others, with the exception of people working in sectors ofcritical importance, such as healthcare and security. Schools, parks, theatersand restaurants are all closed.

-Grocery shops are open, but most fresh food counters are shutting down in abid to avoid spreading the virus. This leads to an expectation of increasedsales of prepacked seafood products. Traditional markets remain open, butpeople are advised to keep safe distance and physical barriers are in place toensure people cannot get too close to the foods on offer, says Trine Horne,NSC country director in France.

France is the third largest market for Norwegian seafood and has been thebiggest growth market for Norwegian salmon so far this year.

Spain

Spanish society more or less closed this week, and only grocery stores andpharmacies are allowed to stay open.

-The total seafood export to Spain is expected to remain relatively stable forsome time still. As in many other markets we see growth in sales ofprepacked seafood, says Bjørn-Erik Stabell, NSC country director in Spain.

The Spanish government have issued guarantees that households shouldhave access to fresh groceries in the stores. This means sales of frozen foodshave not increased significantly and is also linked to most Spanish not havingmuch freezer capacity in their homes.

- Spain primarily being a fresh fish market, we don't wee much growth in thefrozen segment. It is expected that prepacked fresh seafood and take-awaywill perform well in this period, says Stabell.

Norway has exported about 15 500 tons of seafood to Spain in the first twomonths of 2020, valued at 940 million NOK.

Sweden:

Sweden is the market which in many ways “goes against the current” withregards to restrictions and government measures to prevent spread of thevirus. So far, government focus has been on increased hand hygiene, but alsoin this market there is a marked decline in restaurant trade and manyconsumers are worried about the future.

-The frozen food sections in stores are being raided by consumers who arebuying a few more packs than usual, says Sigmund Bjørgo, NSC countrydirector in Sweden.

The big question remains if retail can compensate for reduced restaurantsales of Norwegian seafood.

USA:

Norwegian fresh salmon exports to the US market was down 4 percent inweek 11 (379 tons), compared to the same time last year. Export of freshsalmon fillet increased by 4 percent to 426 tons. The US has developed intoan important market for Norwegian trout in recent years, and in week 11 178tons of fresh whole trout was sold to the USA, up 122 percent compared tothe same week last year.

China:

Export of fresh whole salmon went from 149 tons in week 10 to 217 tons inweek 11. For week 10 that is a decrease of 51 percent on last year, and forweek 11 the decrease was 37 percent.

Italy:

For week 11 fresh whole salmon exports were down 41 percent to 708 tonscompared with the same week last year.

NSC Status Update as of 16th March 2020The EU is the largest and most important region for Norwegian seafoodexports. In 2019 Norway exported 1,6 million tons of seafood to the EU,valued at 68 bn NOK. This represents 59 percent of total seafood exports involume, and 63 percent of the value.

-As many countries in Europe have imposed strict measures to prevent spreadof the Covid-19 virus, we’ve seen a large part of the restaurant marketdisappear. There is a shift towards retail and home consumption of seafood.Several of the Norwegian Seafood Council’s representatives in the marketsare reporting on at times empty seafood shelves in the supermarkets, saysPaul T Aandahl, seafood analyst at NSC.

-However, the biggest challenge for Norwegian seafood going forward will bea possible reduction in consumption in European markets. We know that 30percent of European salmon consumption happens in restaurants, hotels andcatering. For Norwegian salmon this segment stands for 24 percent of totalconsumption, Aandahl says.

-In addition, reduction in available air freight routes to overseas markets,could lead to fewer opportunities for sending fresh fish from Europe to Asiaand the US. It is hard to predict how much fresh fish will go to these regions,as the fish competes for the limited capacity with other goods, such asmachine parts and medical equipment, Aandahl explains.

-On the positive, we do see gradual steps towards normalization of exports toChina, Aandahl says. 

NSC Status update Friday 13. MarchIn a bid to halt the spread of the Corona virus The Norwegian Directorate ofHealth implemented a number of measures coming into effect at 6pmThursday 12th March.

Information about outbreak in Norway can be found here: https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/

Of particular relevance to the seafood industry, fishery and aquaculture areconsidered critical society functions along with the transport sector, andoperations are excepted to continue.

NSC Status update Thursday 12.MarchThe Covid-19 pandemic is causing uncertainty in the global marketplace andconsumers are changing their consumption patterns which affects manymarkets. The HoReCa segment is particularly exposed, and at the same timewe are seeing substantial growth in online and home delivery services inmany markets.

Since the WHO categorized the virus a pandemic, many governments,including Norway, have imposed some of the most severe restrictions ontravel and social interactions known in peace time. One example is the USAstopping all passenger flights from Europe for the next 30 days.

Flight-ban to affect seafood exports from Norway

Despite the current US flight restrictions only affecting passenger travel, it isexpected to impact seafood exports.

-The United States depend on imported seafood meet consumer demand, and90 percent of the seafood consumed is imported. The announced air travelrestrictions have caused uncertainty in the US market, as a lot of freshseafood is transported by passenger aircraft. The situation is unclear andNorwegian exporters, US importers and the freight companies are working tofind solutions, says Egil Ove Sundheim, NSC country director in the USA.

NSC seafood analyst Paul T. Aandahl believes one consequence could besmaller volumes of fresh fish from Europe to the USA. For Norway this wouldprobably cause a shift from fresh to frozen seafood products and increasedexport to European markets.

• Appx. 64% of imported salmon in the US is of Norwegian origin,about 73 000 tonnes.

• The USA was the fourth biggest seafood export market forNorway in 2019, and the second largest growth market

• In 2019 Norway exported 80 000 tons of seafood to the US, ofwhich just over half was air freighted fresh salmon.

Unclear situation in Europe

The rapid spread of the Covid-19 virus and the increasing measures imposedby governments across Europe to contain the spread means the situation isunclear and changing quickly in many markets.

-It is uncertainty linked to how much the pandemic will impact the Europeanproduction facilities and also local consumption habits, says Aandahl.

Fresh exports particularly affected

So far in 2020 there has been a decline in exports of fresh salmon to marketssuch as China and Italy, directly related to the outbreak of the Corona virus.Overall, Norwegian seafood exports have not seen significant negativeeffects in the first two months of the year.

-Salmon is a robust product which adapts well to variations in the market.Norwegian salmon is a sought-after product exported to more than 100countries around the world. But as the situation is unfolding, it is too early tosay how this pandemic will impact salmon exports going forward, says

Aandahl.

China

-In 2019 China was our largest growth market for salmon, measured in value.As a direct result of the Corona virus outbreak, we have seen a sharp declinein exports to China, particularly for fresh salmon. Year to date, export is down43 percent, and in February it was down by 83 percent. Other markets havehad no problem picking up this surplus, says Aandahl.

Italy

Italy was Norway’s ninth largest export market for salmon in 2019. A markeddecline in salmon exports were registered in week 9 and 10 (34 and 24percent respectively). Other European markets picked up this surplus.

The Norwegian Seafood Council works with the Norwegian fisheries andaquaculture industries to develop markets for Norwegian seafood through localmarket intelligence, market development and reputational risk management. TheSeafood Council is headquartered in Tromsø and maintains local representativesin twelve of Norway's most important international markets. The Norwegianseafood industry finances the activities of the Norwegian Seafood Council via atariff on all Norwegian seafood exports.

The Norwegian Seafood Council is a public company owned by the Ministry ofTrade, Industry and Fisheries.

Contacts

Chris GuldbergPress ContactCommunications Directorcg@seafood.no+4792810707

Anette Grøttland ZimowskiPress ContactHead of International PRagz@seafood.no+47 919 13 865

Paul T. AandahlSeafood Analystpa@seafood.no+47 975 04 124

Ingrid Kristine PettersenMarket analystWhitefish and conventional productsikp@seafood.no