1

CORNELL UNIVERSITY ENERGY MASTER PLAN

Tim Peer, Cornell UniversityPhil Curlett, Levitan & Associates,

Inc.

2Energy Master Plan (EMP) Study

History and GoalsCurrent Thermal Energy EquipmentFuture Technologies EvaluatedMethodologyFinancial AnalysisStrategic ConsiderationsRecommendations

3History and Goals

Master planning since 1919Drivers for current EMP:– Campus growth– Capital renewal in Cornell’s Central Heating

Plant (CHP)– Volatile fuel and electric markets– Increasing environmental regulation and

awareness– Need for predictable costs

4Steam Load Forecasts

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Stea

m P

eak

Dem

and

(kpp

h)

Historical High Most Likely Low

Current Firm Capacity

5CHP Boilers

400/6001949Overfeed Stoker175Coal8

400/6401992D Type Package

107.5/109.5

Natural Gas or #6 Fuel Oil7

400/6401992D Type Package

107.5/109.5

Natural Gas or #6 Fuel Oil6

200/5501965D Type Package100Natural Gas5

200/5501959Sterling Vibragate70#6 Fuel Oil2

400/6001981Spreader Stoker90Coal1

Outlet Conditions

(psig/ºF)

Year InstalledBoiler TypeCapacity

(klb/h)FuelBoiler

No.

6Future Technologies Evaluated

Package boilers capable of burning natural gas or oilAtmospheric Circulating Fluidized Bed (ACFB) to replace Boiler 8Biomass boilerOne or two Gas Turbines (GT) with Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSG)

7Methodology

Statistical analysis of historical fuel and energy prices to determine volatility parametersStatistical analysis of campus loads to determine daily profiles and variability for each seasonBase scenario forecast of monthly fuel prices delivered to Cornell and nearby electric generators

8Methodology (cont.)

Consistent forecast of hourly regional electric prices based on chronological simulation model of regional electric marketBase scenario forecast of Cornell’s steam and electric loads based on monthly building requirementsAlternative scenarios reflecting high and low fuel price forecasts and high and low growth projections

9Fuel Price Forecast

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

NYH Distillate OilWTI Crude OilHenry Hub NGNYH 1% RFONorthern Appalachian CoalNuclear Fuel

$/m

mB

tu

10Electricity Price Forecast

Nov

-99

Nov

-00

Nov

-01

Nov

-02

Nov

-03

Nov

-04

Nov

-05

Nov

-06

Nov

-07

Nov

-08

Nov

-09

Nov

-10

Nov

-11

Nov

-12

Nov

-13

Nov

-14

Nov

-15

Nov

-16

Nov

-17

Nov

-18

Nov

-19

Nov

-20

Nov

-21

Nov

-22

Nov

-23

Nov

-24

Nov

-25

Nov

-26

Elec

tric

Pric

es ($

/MW

h) .

Gas

Pric

es ($

/MM

Btu

)

Historical NY West Base NY West High NY West Low NY WestHistorical DTI-SP Base DTI-SP High DTI-SP Low DTI-SP

11Summer System Heat Rates

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Fiscal Year

Syst

em H

eat R

ate,

Btu

/kW

h

Base Summer High Summer Low Summer

12System Heat Rate Profiles

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour of Day

SHR

/ Se

ason

Avg

SH

R

Winter WeekdayWinter WeekendSpring/Fall WeekdaySpring/Fall WeekendSummer WeekdaySummer Weekend

13Weekly Electric Profiles by Month

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1 25 49 73 97 121 145Hour of Week

Elec

tric

Loa

d, k

W

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1 25 49 73 97 121 145Hour of Week

Elec

tric

Loa

d, k

W

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

14Ambient Temperature by Month, Season

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

Tem

pera

ture

, F

AverageTemperature -Winter Months

AverageTemperature - Spr-Fall Months

AverageTemperature -Summer Months

Average of DailyAverageTemperatures

15Steam and Electric Load Growth Factors

1.000 = Average of FY2002, FY2003, and FY2004

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Fiscal Year

Stea

m L

oad

Gro

wth

Fac

tor

Historical HighBase LowHistorical HighBase Low

Steam

Electric

16Financial Analysis

Simulated 25 years of operation (2007-2031)Used Monte Carlo simulation to capture short term variability and volatility effects on – loads– fuel prices– electric energy market heat rate– steam unit availability

17Financial Analysis (cont.)

Phase 1 screening– Package boiler and GT cases have very similar

total costs– ACFB has higher cost– Biomass boiler is the most expensive

Phase 2 probabilistic analysis on three types of variables:– Short-term– Near-term event– Long-term

18Phase 2 Near-Term Technology Choices

Package boilers as needed to meet reliability criterionSingle GT for FY2008Two GTs for FY2008Boiler 8 replaced with ACFB boiler for FY2008

19Phase 2 Decision TreeEarly Chance Events

Long Term Chance Events

2012 Capacity Options

2007 Capacity

Early Chance Events

Long Term Chance Events

2012 Capacity Options

Early Chance Events

Long Term Chance Events

2012 Capacity Options

Early Chance Events

Long Term Chance Events

2012 Capacity Options

Various Branches

Pkg Boilers Only

Pkg Boilers w/lateral

Single GT w/lateral

Two GT w/lateral

Repl Blr 8 w/ ACFB

Repl Blr 8 w/ Biomass

Various Branches

Various Branches

Pkg Boilers only

Second GT

Repl Blr 8 w/ ACFB

Repl Blr 8 w/ Biomass

Various Branches

Various Branches

Pkg Boilers Only

Repl Blr 8 w/ ACFB

Repl Blr 8 w/ Biomass

Various Branches

Package Boilers Only

Single GT

Two GTs

Repl Blr 8 w/ACFB

2-Step Decision Tree

Various Branches

Pkg Boilers Only

Single GT w/lateral

2 GTs w/lateral

Various Branches

Pkg Blrs w/lateral

20EVA Confidence Intervals –All Variables

Package Boilers Single GT Two GTs ACFB Repl Blr 8FY2007-08 Technology Choice

EVA

v. R

efer

ence

Cas

e

95% Percentile Mean5% Percentile

+

-

0

21Annual Cost Comparison

1 - All Variables Simulated

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031Fiscal Year

CH

P an

d El

ectr

ic A

nnua

l Cos

t

Reference Case

Package Boilers

Single GT

Two GTs

ACFB Repl Blr 8

22Strategic Considerations

Electric reliability– Black start capability for most campus electric

loads– Benefits of “islanded” operation

23Recommendations

Replacing Boiler 8 with Biomass or ACFB does not make senseMost attractive initial choice is installation of single 14 MW GT with infrastructure to support second GT in future