Corn investment plan

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CornAsia’s Corn Demand Seen Gaining as U.S.

Drought Curbs ShipmentsOn July 13, 2012

Increased demand for corn imports by Asian nations including China is set to strain global supplies just as drought in the U.S. reduces shipments from the world’s largest grower, according to Rabobank International.

China may import at least 8 million tons in 2012-2013 from about 5 million tons in 2011-2012, Jean Yves Chow, senior industry analyst, said in an interview yesterday. Japan may import 16 million tons, up from 15.5 million tons, he said.

Corn rallied to the highest level since September this week as hot weather across the Midwest hurt yields, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture to cut its projection for this year’s harvest by 12 percent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. joined Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG in boosting price forecasts.

“We will see less export from the U.S., and it comes to a question where supplies will be from amid strong demand from Asia,” Chow said. “China, which used to export corn to South Korea, will be importing almost as much as South Korea.”

December-delivery corn rallied to $7.48 a bushel on July 11, the highest level since Sept. 13. The most-active contract, which traded at $7.3775 at 11:11 a.m. in Bangkok, is poised for a fourth weekly gain as U.S. crop conditions deteriorated.

Chow’s forecast for China’s corn imports is more bullish than that from the USDA, which projects shipments to the country at 5 million tons in 2012-2013, unchanged from last year. South Korea may import 8 million tons of corn in 2012-2013, while Japan may take 15.5 million tons, according to the USDA.

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Commercial Farms

China’s increased demand for corn is driven by the rising need for feed grain as the country’s backyard farms are replaced by commercial farms that use about 50 percent to 55 percent of corn in their feed formula, Chow said.

China will harvest a record 197.5 million tons of corn this year from 191.75 million tons in 2011, according to the Food & Agriculture Organization. Still, even with the rising output, imports of cereals will increase, the Rome-based United Nations agency said in an e-mailed report yesterday. China’s corn imports will climb 1 million tons to 6 million tons, it said.

World grain output will be lower than expected a month ago as the worsening conditions in the U.S. hurt the outlook for the corn harvest, the FAO said on July 5. Farmers across the world will harvest 2.4 billion tons of all grains this year, less than the amount forecast on June 7, the FAO said.

‘Before the Drought’

“Global supply-demand was tight even before the drought,” said Chow, who joined Rabobank in 2007 and covers grains, animal-protein and food-processing markets. “We started the year with a low inventory base.”

The USDA reduced its outlook for the U.S. corn harvest to 12.97 billion bushels (329.45 million metric tons) this year, from a June prediction of 14.79 billion bushels. The forecast for global output was cut to 905.2 million tons, from 949.9 million tons last month, the USDA said. U.S. exports may total 40.6 million tons in 2012-2013, unchanged from 2011-2012.

China’s corn imports may total 20 million tons by 2015, according to a forecast from Olam International Ltd. (OLAM), the Singapore-based commodity supplier, last October. Cofco Agri- Trading & Logistics Co., a unit of China’s biggest grain trader, said the same month that shipments by 2020 may be as much as 20 million tons.

Crop Prices Rally as Expanding U.S. Drought Cuts Harvest Outlook


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AMIR BILALCorn and soybeans rose for the first time in three days as an expanding drought in the U.S. Midwest increased the chances that yield losses will exceed government forecasts. Wheat also rallied.

Most of the Midwest will get less than 20 percent of normal rain in the next five days, and temperatures will rise above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in the four days ending July 18, according to T-storm Weather LLC . As much as 51 percent of the region got less than 25 percent of average rain in the past 14 days. The ratings of the corn and soybean crops are the lowest since 1988, government data show.

“The warmer temperatures will increase yield losses for corn and raise the risks for soybeans,” Ron Mortensen, the president of Advantage Ag Strategies Ltd. in Fort Dodge, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. “Soil moisture is empty, and you can see the crops declining daily. Crops will get smaller without a dramatic increase in rain in the next two weeks.”

Corn futures for December delivery advanced 4 percent to close at $7.3225 a bushel at 2 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price has jumped 44 percent since June 15, reaching $7.48 yesterday, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 13.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 0.4 percent to $15.29 a bushel. Yesterday, the oilseed reached $15.75, the highest since July 2008.

Wheat futures for September delivery gained 2.5 percent to $8.4675 a bushel, the third gain this week. Earlier, the price reached $8.58, the highest since April 2011.

Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its outlook for domestic corn output by 12 percent, a month after predicting a record harvest. The U.S. soybean crop will be the smallest in four years, and global wheat production will be 1 percent less than forecast in June, the agency said.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8 billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth-largest at $14.4 billion, behind hay.

Wide-reaching drought stifles US corn yield


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http://topics.bloomberg.com/u.s.-department-of-agriculture/

http://topics.bloomberg.com/iowa/

https://www.t-stormweather.net/

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American farmer Steve

Niedbalski shows his

drought and heat

stricken corn in Illinois.

Farmers in parts of the Midwest are dealing with

the worst drought in nearly 25

years. Seth Perlman /

AP

The United States, reeling from a harsh Midwest drought, on Wednesday slashed its forecast for the 2012-2013 corn crop, saying yields will be even worse than expected a month ago.

It's unclear if major importers such as China will feel the impact through higher prices or tighter supplies of corn, soybeans and other US grains given expectations of reduced demand.

China is the No 2 importer, after Japan, of US corn and the No 1 importer of US soybeans.


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AMIR BILALThe US Department of Agriculture reported that American farmers will harvest 12.97 billion bushels (329.5 million metric tons), down 12 percent from the department's prediction in June of 14.79 billion bushels.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a corn yield of 13.53 billion on average.

Inventories before the harvest in late summer and fall could be down by as much as 37 percent from what was forecast last month, the USDA said - to 1.183 billion bushels from 1.881 billion bushels.

The worst US drought since 1988 stretches from Ohio to California. Though not as severe a dry spell as the one that ravaged the Southwest in 2011, this year's drought affects more farmland and eclipsed hopes of a record crop due to the mild, early planting season.

China is forecast to import 5 million tons from the US, the world's biggest corn grower and exporter, in the marketing year that begins Sept 1, the USDA said. That's down 2 million tons from previous estimates.

Prices of US corn futures jumped in early trading on Wednesday's grim news, but settled lower than the previous day as traders had already factored in the drought's impact. The price of corn for July delivery fell by 10 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $7.50 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wednesday's settlement price for December-delivery corn was $7.04 per bushel, down 13 cents, or 1.9 percent.

Prices had rallied in the past week as Midwestern US states, known as the Corn Belt, were hit by a heat wave.

As of July 8, about 40 percent of US corn, the world's biggest supply, was in good or excellent condition, the department said. That's down from 48 percent a week earlier and from 77 percent on May 18.

Also Wednesday, the USDA declared over 1,000 counties in 26 states, mostly in the Midwest and Southwest, natural-disaster areas due to the drought and wildfires. The declaration makes farmers and ranchers in those counties eligible for low-interest government loans to get through the crises.

In Indiana, one of the disaster-area states, exports of corn and soybeans are "likely to be greatly reduced," Purdue University agricultural economics professor Chris Hurt told China Daily.


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AMIR BILALIn Minnesota, which instead of drought has benefited from ample rainfall this spring and summer, state Agriculture Department market research director Su Ye said "the supply and price of our agricultural exports to China will be stable".

China is the single biggest market for Minnesota's farm exports, she said.

Iowa, one of the biggest corn and soybean-producing states and not on the USDA disaster-declaration list, is still assessing potential price effects on its exports.

"It's too early to tell. China is a key trading partner for Iowa farmers and all US agriculture and farmers are committed to continue to meeting the needs of our trading partners in China," said Dustin Van de Hoef, a spokesman for Iowa's Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship.

"China already buys a significant amount of soybeans and other ag products from South American countries and I would expect that to continue," he said.

Reuters) - Little relief from the near relentless drought plaguing corn and soybeans in the U.S. Midwest was indicated by fresh weather forecast maps on Thursday, with only minor amounts of rain expected in some areas over the next week to 10 days, an agricultural meteorologist said.

"There's not much change in the forecast. Some light rains are expected in the southeast Midwest into the weekend and some showers in the eastern Dakotas," said John Dee, meteorologist with Global Weather Monitoring.

Rainfall amounts from 0.30 to 0.80 inch were expected in the southeastern Midwest and in the Dakotas, but virtually no rain was likely elsewhere, he said.

High temperatures for the next week were forecast to hover in the upper 80s to low 90s degrees Fahrenheit, he said.

"Overall it's not as threatening as last week, but still no organized rain event so it's still not a great forecast," Dee said.

There was a chance of rainfall later next week. "For the second half of next week there could be some rainfall of 0.30 to 0.80 inch with about 75 to 80 percent coverage of the Midwest," Dee forecast.


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AMIR BILALThe updated midday run of the U.S. weather model was drier than the previous one for the next few days, stretching from northern Missouri into northwestern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. The updated forecast removed about 0.25 inch of rain over the period from its previous run, said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.

"It shows a little bit of rain, but not to the extent that the model showed this morning, which would trend toward the European model. The European model has been quite dry in those northwest areas," Keeney said.

Forecasters said the U.S. model has been less accurate than the European model in recent weeks.

Drought and heat in the U.S. led the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Wednesday to slash its corn production forecast to 12.970 billion bushels from its previous outlook for 14.790 billion and below the record crop of 13.1 billion bushels produced in 2009.

USDA on Monday dropped its estimate for U.S. corn good-to-excellent condition rating to 40 percent from the previous 48 percent. Traders expected a further decline in conditions in the USDA weekly crop progress report to be released this coming Monday.

The agency pegged U.S. soybean conditions at 40 percent good-to-excellent, down from 45 percent the previous week, and in its July crop report pegged 2012 U.S. soybean production at 3.050 billion bushels, down from the previous forecast for 3.205 billion.

The government will update its U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts in its next report which will be released on August 10.

Drought leads to declaration of natural disaster in 26 US states


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AMIR BILALDecision means farmers who have lost crops in more than 1,000 counties are eligible for assistance from government

A tractor ploughs a corn field near Hondo, Texas. Natural disaster has been declared in many areas across the southern United States. Photograph: Eric Gay/AP

America declared a natural disaster in more than 1,000 drought-stricken counties in 26 states on Thursday.

It was the largest declaration of a national disaster and was intended to speed relief to about a third of the country's farmers and ranchers who are suffering in drought conditions.

The declaration from the US department of agriculture includes most of the south-west, which has been scorched by wildfires, parts of the midwestern corn belt, and the south-east.

It was intended to free up funds for farmers whose crops have withered in extreme heatwave conditions linked by scientists to climate change.

According to the US drought monitor, 56% of the country is experiencing drought conditions – the most expansive drought in more than a decade.

The agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, said the funds were intended to help farmers and ranchers across the country who have lost crops to extreme heat or wildfires.


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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/drought

AMIR BILALThe declaration will make affected ranchers and farmers eligible for low-interest loans and speed processing of disaster claims.

"Agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation's economy," Vilsack said. "We need to be cognisant of the fact that drought and weather conditions have severely impacted on farmers around the country."

The declaration covers counties in California, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Delaware and Hawaii. It does not include Iowa, the country's biggest corn producer.

The first six months of this year were the warmest on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. Twenty-eight states east of the Rockies set temperature records.

Those record-breaking temperatures deepened drought conditions across much of the American west, triggering an early and violent season of wildfires in Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico.

The heat also destroyed expectations of a bumper corn crop. American farmers planted more than 96m acres of corn this year, the most in 75 years.

The early spring got the crop off to a good start but , after June's extreme heat, only 40% of the crop was in good condition, according to USDA figures.

From the midwest to the mid-Atlantic, meanwhile, there were triple digit temperatures, breaking hundreds of heat records. On Thursday, St Louis confirmed 18 deaths due to extreme heat conditions.

"The recent heat and dryness is catching up with us on a national scale," Michael Hayes, director of the national drought mitigation centre said in a statement.

Half of America in Drought CrisisOn July 12, 2012.


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The Department of Agriculture Drought Map

The Department of Agriculture has declared that 1,000 counties in 26 states are natural disaster areas because of drought conditions. It is the largest natural disaster in American history, dwarfing even the famous Dustbowl of the 1930s.

By making this declaration, the DoA has made it possible for farmers and ranchers to access federal assistance, including low-interest emergency loans for things like animal feed, loan and mortgage payments and buying seeds for the next planting season.

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said on Wednesday, “Agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation’s economy. We need to be cognizant of the fact that drought and weather conditions have severely impacted farmers around the country.”


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http://lezgetreal.com/?attachment_id=121372

AMIR BILALWe have seen the impact of this drought in the wildfires that have ravaged the western mountain states. According to the U. S. Drought Monitor, 56% of America is in drought conditions and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January through June of 2012 was “the warmest first half of any year on record in the contiguous United States.” The average temperature was 52.9° Fahrenheit, 4.5° above the normal average. Record temperatures were set in 28 states east of the Rockies during that six months. Just in June, more than 170 temperature records were broken or tied, with temperatures hitting 118° in Norton, Kansas, on June 28, and 115° in Red Willow, Nebraska, on June 26. The last time temperatures in Nebraska were that high was 1932, the year of the first massive dust storms that presaged the Dust Bowl crisis of later in the decade.

It’s bad enough the United States is deep in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. We really don’t need a repeat of the second major crisis of the 1930s.

America burning: Drought devastating 26 states is the largest natural disaster in U.S.

historySevere drought conditions plaguing more than half of the United States have developed into the largest natural disaster in the country’s history.

The United States Department of Agriculture declared natural disasters for 26 states and more than 1,000 counties because of the extreme drought that has destroyed crops in farms throughout the nation.

The USDA’s designation provides federal financial help for farmers during the troubling time.


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Devastation: Severe drought conditions plaguing more than half of the United States has created the largest natural disaster in the country¿s history

The declaration come as the worst drought in a quarter century tightened its grip on Midwestern states over the past week.

Sweltering temperatures and scant rainfall punished corn and soybean crops across the region, a report from climate experts said on Thursday.


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Nearly two-thirds of the nine-state Midwest region was in some stage of drought in the week ended July 10, up from just over 50 per cent a week earlier, according to the Drought Monitor, a weekly report on drought throughout the country compiled by U.S. climate experts.

A third of the region was in severe to exceptional drought, up from about a quarter of the region a week earlier, it said.

Decision: The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared natural disasters for 26 states and more than 1,000 counties because the extreme drought has destroyed crops in farms throughout the nation


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Aid: The USDA¿s designation provides federal financial help for farmers dealing with destroyed crops

'The most anomalous conditions covered the lower Ohio Valley, southern Great Lakes, and middle Mississippi Valley, where daily highs averaged 10 to 13 degrees above normal. Additionally, these areas received scant rainfall if any,' said Rich Tinker of the Climate Prediction Center.

'The worst conditions (D3 to D4) were assessed along and near the lower Ohio River and in northeastern Indiana, where rainfall was 7 to 11 inches below normal for the last 3 months,' he said, referring to the top two categories of drought, extreme and exceptional.


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The deepening drought has dragged the yield potential of the developing soybean crop and the pollinating corn crop, which is in a growth stage when its water needs are highest.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed production forecasts for both crops due to the drought, joining scores of private forecasts that have sent grain prices to near-record highs.

Damage: Sweltering temperatures and scant rainfall punished corn and soybean crops across the Midwestern region like this corn plant in an Iowa farm


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Suffering: The deepening drought has dragged the yield potential of the developing soybean crop and the pollinating corn crop, which is in a growth stage when its water needs are highest

The whole of Iowa was classified as abnormally dry as of July 10 and 12.7 per cent of the top corn and soybean producing state was in severe drought, up from 0.8 percent the prior week.

Harder-hit Illinois, the No. 2 corn and soy state, was 66.28 per cent under severe drought or worse, up from 40 per cent the previous week.

Severe to exceptional drought covered 80.15 per cent of Indiana, versus 68.84 per cent the prior week.

Conditions in Missouri also deteriorated, with 82.54 per cent of the state in severe drought or worse, compared with 78.83 percent the week before.


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Rain was expected to move across the Midwest over the next 10 days, including parched southeastern areas, but coverage may be spotty, forecasters said on Thursday.

Heat wave widens Iowa drought

All of Iowa now covered by drought or abnormally dry conditions

A week of 100 degree temperatures with scant rainfall has put all of Iowa in at least “abnormally dry,” conditions, and some part of eastern Iowa into the “severe drought category.’

A week ago the two tiers of counties east of the Missouri River were rated adequate in moisture, and the severe drought was limited to a small sliver along the Missouri border.

The Iowa weather forecast shows a potential for rain this weekend.

The new map, issued by the U.S. Drought Monitor conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Weather Service and the University of Nebraska, now shows all of western Iowa at least abnormally dry.


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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/section/dmweather

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/07/12/drought-widens-in-iowa/iowadroughtjuly12/

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Midwest drought is severe or extreme in most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana

Central Iowa from the Missouri to Minnesota borders is in moderate drought conditions to eastern Iowa in a triangle from just north of the Quad Cities to Dubuque and west to the Cedar Rapids area.

The new map comes a day after the U.S. Department of Agriculture warned that this year’s corn crop will be 12 percent less than forecast in May, and that tight supplies and high prices are likely to continue through the 2012 harvest and into next year.

Map shows about three-fourths of U.S. is in dry or drought conditions this summer


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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120712/BUSINESS/307120047/Iowa-corn-prices-under-siege-from-heat-drought?nclick_check=1

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120712/BUSINESS/307120047/Iowa-corn-prices-under-siege-from-heat-drought?nclick_check=1

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/07/12/drought-widens-in-iowa/midwestdroughtjuly12/

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/07/12/drought-widens-in-iowa/usdroughtjuly12/

AMIR BILALMore than half of Iowa’s soils are rated substandard for moisture by the USDA, compared to more than 90 percent adequacy last year.

Those ratings are the result of below-average rainfall from July of last year through this June, which totaled 27.1 inches.

That rainfall total followed four years of remarkably consistent July/June rainfall totals of 30.08 in 2011; 30.06 in 2010; 30.09 in 2009 and 30.08 in 2008.

The last similar July/June dry spell was 2005-06, with a 27.98 inches total. Iowa’s corn yield that year was 166 bushels per acre.

The 1988 drought, considered the benchmark for modern droughts, saw a 12-month rainfall total from July, 1987 to June of 1988 of 25.26 inches.

Another modern standard for a drought wa19l76-77, which saw a midyear, 12-month rainfall total of 24.98 inches.

While all of Iowa now is covered by abnormal dryness or drought, the situation in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana is even worse with significant portions of those important corn-producing states listed as severe or extreme drought.

The western half of Nebraska is now in severe drought and parts of western Kansas are experiencing extreme drought, according to the updated map.

The National Weather Service forecasts what it calls a “slight chance” of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, with temperatures returning to the mid-90s by Monday.

Forecast shows little chance of turning around dry conditions

July 12, 2012

Chances for relief from the drought conditions plaguing much of Iowa remain slim, but National Weather Service meteorologist Kevin Deitsch says showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight into tomorrow.


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AMIR BILAL“We have about a 40 to 50 percent chance going across much of the state,” Deitsch says. “Anything that falls will most likely be rather isolated and light, however there is an isolated chance of a severe storm which would obviously drop a little bit heavier amounts of rain.” A slight chance for showers and storms is forecast for Saturday as well. Temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to climb through the weekend.

“We’re looking for highs in the low to mid 90s for the weekend and then approaching the mid 90s for much of the state as we head into Monday and Tuesday,” Deitsch said. After Saturday, chances for rain drop off significantly.

“Drought concerns are really going to ramp up here as we head into next week,” Deitsch said. The new U.S. Drought Monitor map, released this morning, shows all of Iowa is considered at least “abnormally dry” – while parts of eastern Iowa are placed in the “severe drought” category.

Drought deepens across St. Louis area


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ST. LOUIS • Meteorologists say the St. Louis area is now under severe drought conditions, with few signs of rain in the forecast.

This morning, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded drought conditions across the region to severe from moderate, meaning that chances of losing crops and pastures are growing along with the threat of fires.

Meanwhile, meteorologists are calling for only slight chances of rain over the next week and high temperatures reaching the mid- to high-90s.


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http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/8/f0/8f092a06-cc41-11e1-adb7-001a4bcf6878/4fff0058ea950.image.jpg

AMIR BILAL“I have no good news on that front,” said Jon Carney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Weldon Spring. “It looks like it’s going to be hot and dry.”

There is a 20 percent chance of rain over the next three days but Carney said any storms that develop would be small, pop-up showers at best.

“This isn’t even going to make a dent,” he said.

While hot, the forecast doesn’t currently include more of the triple-digit heat that was blamed in 18 deaths in the area over the past couple weeks.

Carney said the St. Louis area is 9.1 degrees above the 30-year average temperature in July. The latest summer heatwave broke several record high temperatures June 28 through July 7.


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Investment $50,000

With one lotOffice # 201, 2nd floor Siddiq Trade Centre, 72 Main Boulevard, Gulberg, Lahore,

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AMIR BILALLot size ………………………………………………5000 bu

Margin …………………………………………………..$2500

Per tick value ……………………………………..$12.5

Per point value …………………………………………$50

Buying price …………………………………………..$5.20, 4.50

Selling price …………………………………………$10 AND MORE

Profit …………………………………………………..$27,500

Note; if corn prices get drop up to $0.00 which is not possible, you can again buy corn at lowest level with

one or two lots, which would be very good portfolio.


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Corn investment plan

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