Cormac O'Carroll BIOMASS MARKETS AND DRIVERS, AND … · Wood Based Panels Surplus FEBRUARY 2015...
Transcript of Cormac O'Carroll BIOMASS MARKETS AND DRIVERS, AND … · Wood Based Panels Surplus FEBRUARY 2015...
Cormac O'Carroll
BIOMASS MARKETS AND DRIVERS,
AND IMPACT OF RHI ON SUPPLY / DEMAND Wednesday, 4 February 2015
2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE
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2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE 2
CONTENT
1.Pöyry company overview
2.EU incentives and biomass markets
3.Biomass supply potential and demand in Ireland
4.Conclusions
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PÖYRY IN BRIEF
FEBRUARY 2015 2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE 3
Pöyry is an international consulting and engineering company. We provide services
across the full project lifecycle, solving complex challenges faced by the wold’s
toughest industries.
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SERVICES ACROSS CLIENT’S FULL PROJECT LIFECYCLE
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THE ROLE OF BIOENERGY
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Around 60% of the Renewable Energy target in 2020 will be met employing various forms
of biomass.
EU Bioenergy targets
Source: Pöyry
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Au
str
ia
Belg
ium
B
ulg
aria
C
yp
rus
Cze
ch
…
Denm
ark
E
sto
nia
F
inla
nd
Fra
nce
G
erm
an
y
Gre
ece
H
un
ga
ry
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
La
tvia
L
ith
ua
nia
L
uxe
mb
…
Ma
lta
N
eth
erl…
P
ola
nd
P
ort
ug
al
Ro
ma
nia
S
lovakia
S
love
nia
S
pain
S
we
de
n
UK
E
U 2
7 …
Total renewable target
Transport from biomass
Electricity from biomass
Heating and cooling from biomass
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MOST COUNTRIES MAKING REASONABLE PROGRESS BUT
SOME LAGGARDS
Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Countries Progress on NREAPs Bioenergy targets
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HEAT GENERALLY ON TARGET BUT UK CLEARLY BEHIND
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Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Countries Progress on electricity generated from biomass
Countries Progress on heat&cooling generated from biomass
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IMPACT OF OIL PRICES? – FINANCIAL TIMES SATURDAY 31ST
JAN 2015
17 JANUARY 2012 PÖYRY POWERPOINT 2010 TEMPLATE 8
BIOENERGY INCENTIVES AND POLICIES
Legend:
Low interest loans
Investment support
Other
Price-based schemes
None
Legend:
Feed-in tariff (FiT)
Market premium tariff
Tender
Green certificates (GC)
Net-metering
None
Incentives for renewable electricity from biomass Incentives for renewable heat from biomass
9
FEBRUARY 2015
2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE
Source: Pöyry
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∆ 110
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EU BIOMASS SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2020 / 2030
Views on the EU biomass supply potential going forward vary widely; how much of
the potential can be supplied sustainably from domestic sources, at what price?
140
EU biomass supply & demand (Mtoe)
Combined demand (primary energy)* Agriculture Waste
2030 Demand
2020 2010 Supply NREAP
(2020)
* WBA position paper (5/2014): The future contribution of
Bioenergy to the European Energy System
250211
118
0
100
200
300
400Max
supply
Min
supply
Max
supply
Min
supply
Forestry
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Trade flows (Million tonnes)
4.5*
* EU 2 internal trade
Current
WOOD PELLET TRADE FLOWS INTO THE EU
International pellet markets have quickly developed to fill the supply gap.
Total pellet imports
into EU28**
** includes volumes from areas
other than those shown
2009 1.7 million tonnes
2010 2.5 million tonnes
2011 3.1 million tonnes
2012 4.4 million tonnes
2013 6.1 million tonnes
Russia EU
million tonnes
2009 0.4
2010 0.4
2011 0.5
2012 0.6
2013 0.7
Canada EU
million tonnes
2009 0.5
2010 1.0
2011 1.2
2012 1.3
2013 2.0
US Southeast EU
million tonnes
2009 0.5
2010 0.8
2011 1.0
2012 1.8
2013 2.8
Source: Pöyry Pellet Report 2014
Emerging
Biomass Sustainability Report COM
2010(11): Non binding recommendations Solid Biomass Sustainability
International bodies voluntary
initiatives
The World Bioenergy Association
Roundtable on Sustainable
Biomaterials
ISO 13065 (Under development)
National and
Regional voluntary
initiatives
Nordic Label
The Green Gold
Label
Laborelec
NTA 8080
Blue Angel
Global Multi-stakeholder voluntary
schemes
Sustainable Biomass
Partnership
ENplus Green
ISCC +
The Global Bioenergy
Partnership
National Criteria
UK
Denmark
Netherlands
Belgium
BIOENERGY INCENTIVES AND POLICIES
2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE FEBRUARY 2015
Source: Pöyry
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2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE 13
FORESTS IN IRELAND
Traditionally the afforestation effort has been concentrated to public land, however,
following new legislation with grants and support, private afforestation has greatly
increased since the 1990’s.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 Private Public Total
Historic woodland area in Ireland by ownership in 2011 (‘000 ha)
Source: IFFPA 2012, Forest Service 2012
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HARVEST BY LAND OWNERSHIP
Coillte provides a stable wood flow for the industry. However, the bulk of
incremental supply will come from private forests
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Coillte Private Forest RoI Forest Service NI Private Forest NI*
Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland
Source: IFFPA 2012, Forest Service 2012
*Northern Ireland Forest Service estimate (DARDNI, 2012)
Harvest by land ownership in 2011 (Modt)
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Supply Demand Surplus
Waste wood
Harvesting residues
Sawdust
Woodchips
Pulpwood
Import
Bioenergy
Pellets
Wood Based Panels
Surplus
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WOODY BIOMASS SUPPLY & DEMAND
There appears to be a surplus of woody biomass in Ireland that could be utilized for
bioenergy but much of this “surplus” comprises waste wood and harvesting
residues where availability and economics are unproven
Biomass supply & demand 2012 (Modt)
Demand
Supply
Source: Pöyry, COFORD
? 44% used
(0.17Modt)
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HOW FAR FROM THE TARGETS ARE WE?
Progress on Bioenergy from Solid Biomass in 2012
Source: Irish NRAEP Progress report
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Energy from biomass for Electricity Energy from biomass for Heating Energy from biomass for Transport
GW
h
2012 Solid Biomass achieved 2012 Proposed target for S. Biomass 2020 Target of Solid Biomass
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STRONG GROWTH IN WOOD AVAILABILITY IS FORECAST
Private forest represents almost half of the potential availability in 2030, but will it
be realized?
Potential net realizable volume by ownership (Mm³sob)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Public (Coillte) Private
Source: COFORD, 2011
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SAWMILL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO INFLUENCE AVAILABILITY
Sawmilling industry drives forest utilization and capacity development requires
stable wood flows to attract larger investments. We have assumed sawmilling
capacity lags sawlog availability growth.
Potential harvest realization of sawlogs (Modt)
Source: Pöyry (Analysis on COFOR 2011)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Sawlog availability Sawlog consumption
25% increase,
low investments
Large investments
needed
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Biomass supply (Modt)
FUTURE AVAILABILITY OF DOMESTIC BIOMASS
Supply will increase, mainly as a result of the expected growth in private harvesting
Source: Pöyry
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Wastewood - low quality
Wastewood - high quality
Harvesting residues
Sawdust
Woodchips
Pulpwood
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020
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Estimated demand and surplus (Modt)
…SO IS THERE ENOUGH WOOD?
Domestic supply could theoretically meet the demand implied by the NREAP target
but it is uncertain how much of this supply will materialize. Furthermore this takes
no account of likely expansions in other wood using industries e.g. wood panels
Woody biomass
2020 NREAP target
Progress
reported
2012 Maximum COFORD
supply potential Sawmill driven supply –
Pöyry analysis
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Irish woody biomass imports (kodt)
WHAT ABOUT IMPORTS?
Current import volumes are small but could be an option to supplement the
domestic biomass supply
* Eurostat started publishing European pellet trade data in 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Wood waste Sawdust Chips and particels Roundwood (exlc. sawlogs) Wood Pellets*
Source: Eurostat
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FEBRUARY 2015 2015 IRBEA NATIONAL BIOENERGY CONFERENCE 22
CONCLUSIONS
Biomass heat is a key component in EU renewable targets
There is theoretically enough domestic wood for Ireland to reach the NREAP
bioenergy targets but significant uncertainty remains regarding what will
ultimately be mobilised and what new industrial capacity will emerge in the rest
of the Irish wood industries.
The proposed RHI can make a major contribution to achieving these targets
Any shortfall in domestic biomass supply can be supplemented by well
developed international pellet markets.
It is critical that the RHI is aligned not only with forecast wood supply but also
the likely development of Ireland’s other strategic wood industries
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