CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis - CAL FIRE - Home Wildfire Risk Analysis Data Inputs 9 Type/amount...
Transcript of CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis - CAL FIRE - Home Wildfire Risk Analysis Data Inputs 9 Type/amount...
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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis
Dr. Thomas C. Jeffery, Ph.D.
©2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.
Agenda
Wildfire Risk
Opportunity and Ability
CoreLogic Wildfire Analysis
Determining wildfire risk
What the analysis does and doesn’t do
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Wildfire Risk
All vegetation is fuel but not all fuel is a wildfire risk
Wildfire risk is based on the opportunity and ability of burning fuel
to ignite a structure
Opportunity = will the burning fuel come into contact with the
structure?
Ability = will the burning fuel release enough heat energy to cause
ignition?
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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis
Evaluates the risk on the property
Evaluates the risk near the property
Granularity is a key component to accuracy (30 meter grid)
30 meter resolution is not what you see on Google Earth
In addition, the Satellite does not “see” under tree canopy
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Google Earth (typically 1-3 meter resolution)
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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis
Brushfire Categories identify risk at a specific location based upon
Conditions at a single geographic point Terrain (slope & aspect)
Fire history
Fuel
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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis
Data Inputs
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Type/amount of vegetation
determines heat energy
South facing = warm and dry
North facing = cool and moist
Prevalence of fires
Steeper = upslope pre-heating
and faster burn rate
Fire History
Veg/Fuel Load
Aspect
Slope
Brushfire
Categories
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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis
Wildfire Risk Score adds surrounding risk
Combines the Category-based risk + Distance to wildland +
Distance to nearest High risk
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Brushfire Categories are combined with
1) Distance to Wildland, 2) Distance to High Risk
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What this type of risk analysis does
Identifies risk based on a granular 30 meter (~ 100 foot) grid.
Calculates distance to nearest High risk
Combines on-site risk with nearby risk
Holistic interpretation of direct flame contact, radiant, and ember
Incorporates changes to fuel/vegetation annually
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What it does not do
Does not include meteorology (rain, humidity, temperature)
Does not evaluate structural mitigation
Wire mesh over attic vents
Dead debris on roof or eaves
Siding/roofing material
Does not evaluate small scale changes to fuel/vegetation
Brush clearing immediately around home
Does not include road network
Does not include location of fire stations
Does not determine probability of fire or use fire simulations
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30 meter grid overlay
Distance to West – 60 meters Distance to North – 16 meters
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30 meter grid overlay
Distance to SW – 26 meters
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