CORALS & CLIMATE CHANGE · CORALS & CLIMATE CHANGE: A SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF RISK. Kim M. Cobb ....
Transcript of CORALS & CLIMATE CHANGE · CORALS & CLIMATE CHANGE: A SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF RISK. Kim M. Cobb ....
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CORALS & CLIMATE CHANGE: A SHIFTING LANDSCAPEOF RISK
Kim M. Cobb @coralsncavesPamela Grothe, Hussein Sayani, Alyssa Atwood, Tianran Chen, Intan Nurhati, Gemma O’Connor
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Nov 2015
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https://socialforecasting.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/el-nino-godzilla.jpg
2015/2016 El Niño
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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August, 2014
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November, 201530-90% bleached0-90% deaddepending on site
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April, 201685% dead10% bleached5% healthy
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BEFORE AFTER
link
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What’s next for the world’s reefs?
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What will global reefs look like in 2030? 2050?
How will they function ecologically?
How will these changes impactglobal food supply? ocean health & adaptive capacity?size of ocean carbon sink?coastal vulnerability to sea level rise?
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The Dream Team:Kim Cobb, Mark Hay (Georgia Tech)Julia Baum (U. Victoria, ecologist)Ruth Gates (UH, coral ecologist & genomicist)Mark Merrifield (UH, phys. oceanography)Brian Powell (UH, phys. oceanography)Samantha Stevenson (NOAA, climate modeler)
Research Goal:Document short- and long-term effects of 2015/16 El Niño on Line Islands reefs
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ERSSTv4
Are El Niño events becoming stronger?
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last 100+ yrs
last 7000 yrsU/Th dated
drilled via SCUBA
storm/tsunami depositsscattered on beachesacross the tropics
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1mm sampling transect for coral oxygen isotopes (δ18O)affords monthly resolution
Coral δ18O = SST + δ18Oseawater
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Feb 2016OISST
Jan-Mar 2016OLR
warm SST drives coral δ18O down
rainy conditionsdrive coral δ18O down
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SS
T (º
C)
δ18 O
(‰)
grey=OISSTcolors=coral δ18O
Evans et al., 1999Nurhati et al., 2009
Grothe et al., in prepO’Connor et al., in prepCoral δ18O records are
interchangeable with SST.
Replication yields better reconstruction.
Christmas coral oxygen isotopes vs. SST
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Christmas coral δ18O recordsthrough the last millennium
2015/2016 El Niño
δ18 O
(‰)warmer
2015/2016 El Niño reached unprecedented values;extreme event + background warming
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Palmyra coral δ18O recordsthrough the last millennium
Has ENSO variance changed?
warmer
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Now combining corals from all Line islandsover last 7,000 years
# of yrs covered: 2055
plotting ENSO variance only
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Fanning
ChristmasPalmyra
Grothe et al., in prepCobb et al, 2013Cobb et al., 2003McGregor et al., 2013Grothe et al., in prepWoodroffe et al., 2003
1985-2005 ENSO variability
ENSO variance over the last 7,000yrs
stronger ENSO
weaker ENSO
Most pre-industrial data reflectmuch weaker ENSO than present.
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Difference in variance between selected periods
# of
Occ
urre
nces OBSERVED DIFFERENCE
95% significant
99% significant
Observed difference in variance betweenpre-industrial and modern period too large to be explained by chance
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Evidence that 20th century interannualvariance is stronger than pre-industrial:
Li et al., 2013 tree rings from Java
McGregor et al., 2013 Pacific multi-proxy
Liu et al., 2017 Taiwan tree δ18O
Cobb et al., 2013; Grothe et al., in prep Line Islands coral δ18O
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What now?
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RESILIENCE can only be quantified under stress
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“For too long, we as scientists have relied on our data to do the talking for us. That strategy has failed, miserably.”
AGU rally, Dec 2016
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~17,000 signaturesfrom 109 countries
100+ ”pods” in citiesacross the US
500womenscientists.org
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Partners:GT FacilitiesIBMBPDeltaHome DepotChipotleTrees AtlantaDept Veterans Affairs3M
2017 CO2 avoided:5 millions lbs
Annual class CO2footprint:1.2 million lbs
Carbon Reduction ChallengeEAS 3110, Georgia Tech
saving Csaving $empowering the next generation
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https://citizensclimatelobby.org
Carbon Feeand Dividend- net gain forlow-C emitters
- net loss forhigh-C emitters
- govt doesn’t make 1 cent
- bipartisan appeal
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To be ensure a just, sustainable world,we need ALL hands on deck.
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2016 brought the magnitude of the climate problem into sharp focus.
The world needs solutions, and action.
Scientists must engage for changeon individual, community, state, andfederal levels.
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“There are many ways of going forward, but only one way of standing still.”
--Franklin D. Roosevelt