Coral reef mapping: local partnerships in the Pacific ... · to form the Marine Ecosystem...

U.S. DEPARTMENTOF COMMERCE

National Oceanicand AtmosphericAdministration

Vol. 9, No. 4 ● June 1999

EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

A guide toNOAA's data and

informationservices

INSIDE

3News briefs

6The changing sea:

long-termbiogeochemicalvariability in the

subtropical NorthPacific

9Ten years of BATS

data offer unique lookat ocean variability

11Data productsand services

Coral reef mapping: local partnershipsin the Pacific support national effort

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▲ Figure 1. Distribution of coral reef areas in the United States andaffiliated islands. The Hawaiian islands comprise almost 85% of allcoral reef area under U.S. jurisdiction. Source: Miller, S.L. and M.P.Crosby, 1998, “The extent and condition of U.S. coral reefs,” inNOAA State of the Coast Report, Silver Spring, MD.

Mr. Patrick CaldwellNODC Liaison for Hawaii/U.S.-Affiliated islands inthe PacificNational Oceanographic Data CenterNOAA/NESDIS

Coral reefs show us the benefit of partner-ships: the plant life (algae) and the animal(coral) maintain a symbiotic union that sup-ports their existence in the tropical, shallow,oceanic regimes of our planet. Partnerships areadvantageous as well to diverse organizationswith common goals of understanding, manag-ing, and preserving these natural habitats. Acrossthe Pacific, various agencies have come togetherto form the Marine Ecosystem Geographic Infor-mation System (GIS) working group (MEGIS).This group in turn is partnering with the U.S.Coral Reef Task Force (CRTF), an executive initia-tive to preserve coral reef ecosystems of the U.S.and U.S.-affiliated islands inthe Caribbean and Pacific.

Within the CRTF, a Map-ping and Information Synthe-sis Working Group (MISWG)has been formed with a similargoal of MEGIS—to developdata layers for a GIS ofnearshore benthic habitatswithin tropical and subtropicalzones as has recently been ac-complished for the Florida Keys(NOAA, 1998). But consideringthe proportion of coral cover-age in Hawaii and U.S. affili-ated islands in the Pacificrelative to the mainland U.S.and affiliations in the Carib-bean (Figure 1), it is clear thatthe MEGIS significantly aug-ments the MISWG.

Geographic Information Systems help manage fragile coral reef ecosystem

National Oceanographic DataCenterNOAA/NESDISUniversity of Hawaii1000 Pope Road, Rm 316Honolulu, Hawaii 96816E-Mail: [email protected]

The days of shuffling through paper atlascharts and tabular data are coming to an end,thanks in part to the technological convenienceof modern GIS tools. The ability to have not onlyscientific observations and locations of historicsurveys, but various maps such as managementjurisdictions, cultural sites, and coastal popula-tion density, greatly enhance the value of GISover traditional resources.

For example, the grounding of a tanker on acoral reef would signal the immediate responseof the Natural Resource Damage Assessment(NRDA) teams. With a CD-ROM or online data-base loaded into a GIS, vast quantities of infor-mation could rapidly be disseminated to theephemeral sampling teams and the multi-agencyworking groups. In addition, the historic mapsof coral coverage would be essential as a baselinefor the ensuing legalities of cost recovery.

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2 June 1999EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

The Earth System Monitor (ISSN 1068-2678) is published quarterly by the NOAAEnvironmental Information Services office.Questions, comments, or suggestions forarticles, as well as requests for subscrip-tions and changes of address, should bedirected to the Editor, Roger Torstenson.

The mailing address for the EarthSystem Monitor is:

National Oceanographic Data CenterNOAA/NESDIS E/OC1SSMC3, 4th Floor1315 East-West HighwaySilver Spring, MD 20910-3282

EDITORRoger Torstenson

Telephone: 301-713-3281 ext.107Fax: 301-713-3302

E-mail: [email protected]

DISCLAIMERMention in the Earth System Monitor ofcommercial companies or commercialproducts does not constitute an endorse-ment or recommendation by the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administrationor the U.S. Department of Commerce.Use for publicity or advertising purposes ofinformation published in the Earth SystemMonitor concerning proprietary productsor the tests of such products is notauthorized.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEWilliam M. Daley, Secretary

National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration

D. James Baker,Under Secretary and Administrator

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Coral reef mapping, from page 1


Marine Ecosystem GIS Working GroupCoral reef and coastal interests in

the Pacific overlap among many Fed-eral, state, and county governmentaloffices, university laboratories, privateconsultants, non-governmental organi-zations (NGOs), commercial ventures,sports clubs, and the general public. Theprimary governmental bodies associatedwith management in the coastal area aresummarized in Table 1 and the complexmulti-jurisdictions are visually depictedby zone in Figure 2. Due to the greatlyvarying survey techniques and data stor-age formats, as well as the lack of readilyavailable catalogs of information as towhat is available at eachoffice, it is difficult for policy makersand other stakeholders to easily inte-grate this information.

To address the issue of monitoringstandards, the Hawaii Coral Reef Moni-toring Workshop (Maragos, 1999) washeld in June 1998, with over 100 partici-pants from primarily Federal, state, and

▲ Table 1. Governmental bodies involved in coastal area management.

university offices. This workshop pro-vided some initial discussion amongdata managers from the different affilia-tions. To address the needs for consoli-dated data products among the variousagencies, the MEGIS was formed.

The MEGIS, spearheaded by Mr.Kevin Foster of the USFWS, held its firstmeeting in August 1998 to begin ad-dressing how to best centralize and stan-dardize the information as maintainedby the multi-agency body. One of theobvious contemporary options was tostrive to develop a common GIS data-base for Pacific marine ecosystems. Thegroup subsequently has had additionalmeetings separately for resource manag-ers and technical teams. The resourcemanagers consist of biological expertswhose main task is to prioritize poten-tial data layers for the GIS. The resourcemanagers also oversee data exchangeamong the agencies. It was unani-mously agreed that free and open ex-change take place. The technical

Organization Category Acronym

Waste Water Management Division County WWMDBishop Museum of Natural Sciences State BMNSCoastal Zone Management Program State CZMDepartment of Agriculture State DOAClean Water Branch, Dept of Health State CWB,DOH

Division of Aquatic Resources, Division of State DAR,DLNR Land and Natural ResourcesDepartment of Transportation State DOTHawaii Institure of Marine Biology, State HIMB, UH University of HawaiiSchool of Ocean Earth Science and State SOEST Technology, University of HawaiiWaikiki Aquarium State WA

Marine Laboratory, University of Guam U.S.-Flag Is. UOGGuam Coastal Management Program U.S.-Flag Is. GCMPCoastal Resource Management for Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Is. U.S.-Flag. Is. CRMS,CNMIEast-West Center Federal EWCDept of Commerce of American Samoa Federal ASDOCArmy Corps of Engineers Federal/DoD ACE

National Marine Fisheries Service Federal/DoC NMFSNational Oceanographic Data Center Federal/DoC NODCNational Ocean Service Federal/DoD NOSUS Fish and Wildlife Service Federal/DoI USFWSUS Geological Survey Federal/DoI USGSUS National Park Service Federal/DoI USNPS

3June 1999 EARTH SYSTEM MONITOR

News briefsTsunami research recognized inScientific American

An article entitled “Tsunami–Predict-ing Destruction by Monster Waves” byFrank I. Gonzalez of NOAA's Pacific MarineEnvironmental Laboratory in Seattle ap-peared in the May 1999 issue of ScientificAmerican. The article begins with an ac-count of the Papua New Guinea tsunamiof July 1998. Tsunami threats in generalare discussed and makes the statement:“Historical patterns of their occurrence arerevealed in large databases developed byJames F. Lander, Patricia A. Lockridge andtheir colleagues at the National Geophysi-cal Data Center (NGDC) in Boulder, Colo-rado.” Later in the article, a reference ismade to Jim Lander's work in cataloguingtsunamis affecting the United Statescoastal areas. The NGDC publication,“United States Tsunamis 1690-1988,”heads the “Further Reading” list at theconclusion of the article.

Climate reference networkproposed A meeting was convened by NCDCDirector Thomas R. Karl at the NationalClimatic Data Center (NCDC) March 23,1999, for laying the foundation for ac-complishing the work to rebuild the coop-erative observers system into a true cli-mate observing system. The meeting wasan informal open discussion amongNCDC, National Weather Service , U.S.Department of Agriculture representatives,and others to plan necessary Co-op Net-work improvements. NCDC will managethe proposed Climate Reference Network;NWS will manage Cooperative Moderniza-tion Planning, and Replacement ofPunched Paper Tape Rain Gauge Record-ers. Important items discussed includedcommunication requirements, possibleacquisition of up to 8,000 surplus CensusPCs, and the additional funds needed inout-years for an adequate cooperativemodernization.

IEEE Symposium on mass storagesystems NGDC’s John Kinsfather presented apaper titled “The NOAA Virtual Data Sys-tem, Improving Access to and Manage-ment of Federal Environmental Data.”Other talks of interest included discussionson various storage media, trends in datastorage fields, and industry roadmaps andprojections for the next five years.

NGDC archives thousand-yearclimate reconstruction A new one thousand-year climatereconstruction and supporting data havebeen archived at the NGDC Paleoclimatol-ogy Program. The paper published byMann, Bradley, and Hughes in GeophysicalResearch Letters concludes that the 1990swas the warmest decade, and 1998 thewarmest year, in the past millenium.Warming observed in the 20th centuryalso counters a millennial-scale coolingtrend, which is consistent with long-termastronomical forcing.

NESDIS supports Southern AfricanDevelopment Community (SADC) NESDIS scientists collaborated in aninvited submission to the U.S. Agency forInternational Development, supportingthe Southern African Development Com-munity (SADC). The overall theme of thecooperation is capacity-building withinsouthern Africa, in economically beneficialareas of environmental information accessand management. SADC comprises mostAfrican countries south of the Equator.Major participants in the process were theNational Climatic and Geophysical DataCenters, Office of Research and Applica-tions, NOAA and NESDIS InteragencyAffairs. Topics suggested included adapt-ing experimental NESDIS dat sets for pos-sible use by SADC, and the fostering ofimproved environmental data stewardshipwithin SADC countries.

U.S.-Russian Arctic MeteorologyAtlas under development A workshop for the development ofthe Environmental Working Group (EWG)Arctic Meteorology Atlas took place atNGDC’s affiliated National Snow and IceData Center (NSIDC) on March 15-18.Two scientist from the Arctic and AntarcticResearch Institute in St. Petersburg workedwith the NSIDC team to review data andfurther develop the atlas. The atlas is thirdin what will be a set of four conceived bythe U.S.-Russian Joint Commission Envi-ronmental Working Group’s Subgroup onArctic Climatology. The release of the firstatlas was announced by Vice PresidentGore in a press conference at the NationalGeographic Society in February 1997.

That atlas, an oceanography atlas, is espe-cially notable for the fields it contains thatwere derived from classified Russian andU.S. Navy sources. The meteorology atlaswill have no such classified data sources,but will contain previously unavailableRussian meteorology data. The EWG ArcticAtlas series is available through NSIDC.

Urban heat island assessmentfrom satellite

A case study of the assessment of anurban heat island through the use ofblended data from the NOAA-AVHRR,Landsat, and DMSP-Operational LinescanSystem has found the multi-sensor analysisvery beneficial for determination of urbanand rural climate stations in the Dallas-Ft.Worth, Texas region. The assessment isdescribed in a manuscript entitled “Assess-ment of Urban Heat Islands: A Multi-Sen-sor Perspective for the Dallas-Ft. WorthUSA Region” by Kevin Gallo and TimOwen, which has been published inGeocarto International (1998, vol.13, pp.35-41).

GOIN-99 Workshop The National Geophysical DataCenter’s (NGDC) Dan Wilkinson and Dr.Herb Kroehl participated in the GlobalObservation Information 99 Workshopsessions held at the University of Hawaii’sEast-West Conference Center. GOIN is a1993 Presidential initiative which estab-lished a forum for exchanging global envi-ronmental data and information via net-works between the United States andJapan. This bilateral program has ex-panded to include Italy, Thailand, Singa-pore, China, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam,Mongolia, Brazil, Korea, Malaysia, Philip-pines, Taiwan, Chile, and Australia.

The expansion prompted the resolu-tion that the goals of GOIN would beserved by integrating those programs withthe Committee on Earth Observing Satel-lites (CEOS) over the next 16 months. Mr.Wilkinson presented two papers on theSatellite Anomaly Database and the sup-port to the International Space Station. Dr.Kroehl co-chaired the Solar-Terrestrial (ST)Subgroup, presented the S-T subgroupactivities to the Plenary, the Joint TechnicalWorking Group and the Joint ProgramWorking Group. The S-T subgroup estab-lished network requirements for activities inreal-time forecasting and numerical model-ing of the near-Earth space environment.


Coral reef mapping, from page 2

▲ Figure 2. Coral reef and coastal responsibilities in Hawaii. Management is facilitated by partnerships among diverse organizations.

managers have focused on aspects ofGIS technology and how best to ingestand integrate the desired data layers.Participation includes many govern-mental agencies as summarized inTable 1 as well as a few private consult-ants and NGOs such as the Nature Con-servancy and the Sierra Club.

The MEGIS is off to a good startdue to the availability of a few opera-tional and expanding GIS projects.The DAR-DLNR (see Table 1 for acro-nyms) are one of the key stewards forpreserving coral reefs in Hawaii andhave collected significant data and in-formation for creating data layerswithin a GIS for five hot spots orthreatened zones—Hanalei, Kauai;Kaneohe Bay, Oahu; Kihei, Maui;Kealakekua, Hawaii; and Hilo, Hawaii.

An example is shown in Figure 3. TheUSFWS and the USGS both have GISprograms that could benefit the com-mon MEGIS mission. An importantmonitoring initiative underway in Ha-waii is the Coral Reef Assessment andMonitoring Program (CRAMP) throughsupport of the HIMB-UH, UH-Hilo, andvarious community colleges (http:www.coralreefs.hawaii.edu/ReefNetwork/default.htm).

In addition to new sites, CRAMP isre-surveying various historic sites thathave not been explicitly georeferencedfor inclusion in a GIS. Remote sensingprojects with application to mapping ofcoral reefs are being made available byresearchers at the School of OceanEarth Science and Technology (SOEST)of UH (http://www. soest.hawaii.edu/coasts ogg_projects.html) and at the

Natural Sciences Department of theWindward Community College (http://imiloa.wcc.hawaii.edu/krupphoaaina.html). Research at the East-West Centerhas also resulted in mapping productsfor Molokai and several U.S.-affiliationsin the Pacific. MEGIS has only beentogether for six months, but has gainedsufficient momentum to catch the eyeof a larger national effort with similargoals.

The U.S. Coral Reef Task ForceAn executive order was given on

June 11, 1998, as part of the MontereyNational Ocean Conference, on thepreservation and restoration of coralreefs in the United States and its Pacificand Caribbean affiliations. The Secre-tary of the Interior and the Secretary ofCommerce are named to co-chair the


U.S. Coral Reef Task Force (CRTF). Theduties of the group will be to map andmonitor U.S. coral reefs, identify themajor causes and consequences of theirdegradation, and design and imple-ment plans to restore reefs that havesuffered damages. The CRTF is directedto cooperate with agencies worldwidewho have similar goals.

For the mapping tasks, the Map-ping and Information Synthesis Work-ing Group (MISWG) has been formed.Their overall goal is to develop a strat-egy for creating a digital set of compre-hensive and consistent coral reef eco-system maps and a map informationsynthesis capability. Both short-term(1-5 years) and long-term objectives arebeing addressed.

The MISWG will also define andcoordinate the development of mapinformation products to support theCRTF and its related user community.One of their initial tasks was to distrib-ute to as many contacts as possible aquestionnaire regarding the presentand potential availability of mappingproducts. This information was summa-rized into a report and presented to theCRTF meeting in Maui, Hawaii in earlyMarch 1999. This gave the steeringcommittee of the CRTF a clearer pictureon what has been accomplished andwhere emphasis should be placed forfuture monitoring endeavors.

Within the national arena, anotheragency is also partnering with thesecoral reef initiatives. The CoastalOcean Laboratory of the NationalOceanographic Data Center designatedDr. Anthony Picciolo in 1998 to lead anendeavor to archive coral reef informa-tion. The NODC is the perennial NOAAarchive for ocean data—preservation isensured by periodically recopying digi-tal data records onto the most recentinformation technology for mass stor-age.

Data from coral ecosystems pose anew challenge to data managementrelative to the historic oceanographicdata sets such as ocean profiles of tem-perature and salinity. Due to the dispar-ity in monitoring techniques, meta-data, which is simply informationabout the data, is critical. NODC fo-cuses great attention to properly docu-menting data sets, weaving thisinformation into a catalog system forease of access, and publicly advertising

the availability. To assist data acquisi-tion and servicing of the archive, theNODC has placed liaison officers at keyoceanographic institutions around thecountry. The liaison for Hawaii is basedat SOEST-UH, participates in theMEGIS,and has been supporting theCRTF MISWG by significantly increas-ing the potential contacts of coral reefplayers in Hawaii and affiliated Pacificislands.

Partnerships are coalescingThe MEGIS hosted a meeting in

mid-January 1999 coinciding with thevisit of Dr. Steve Brown and Dr. SteveRohmann of the CRTF MISWG. Themeeting provided an excellent opportu-nity for the MEGIS to learn more aboutDr. Rohmann’s experience in develop-ing mapping products and about theevolving CRTF. It was also a timelyoccasion for the MISWG to learn aboutthe efforts that have been gaining mo-mentum in the Pacific through theMEGIS.

Several of the key issues were ad-dressed, such as the critical need forprecise bathymetric information in thenearshore regimes and the best meansof handling historic data sets that arenot accurately georeferenced for ease ofinput into a GIS. Both groups were en-couraged by the expanding technolo-gies for mapping with multi- and

hyper-spectral aerial photography. Thistopic will be the focus of the Interna-tional Workshop on the Use of RemoteSensing Tools for Mapping and Moni-toring Coral Reefs to be held at theEast-West Center of the University ofHawaii June 7-10, 1999.

The MEGIS and the CRTF MISWGare both beginning their endeavors andlook forward to continuing coopera-tion. The meeting of CRTF experts onMaui in March 1999 resulted in clearerdirections for the national effort whichwill inherently be of interest to thePacific initiatives. These cost-effective,synergistic partnerships that haveformed among the local, state, federal,and non-governmental offices will cer-tainly enhance mankinds efforts forbetter understanding and preservationof one of Earths most important finitenatural habitats in the coastal zone—coral reef ecosystems.

ReferencesMaragos, J.E. and R. Grober-Dunsmore (eds.),

1999. Proceedings of the Hawaii CoralReef Monitoring Workshop, June 9-11,1998. Division of Aquatic Resources,Hawaii Department of Land and NaturalResources, and Program on Environment,East-West Center, Honolulu, in press.

NOAA and Florida Marine Research Institute, 1998. Benthic Habitats of the Florida Keys, CD-ROM Product, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD. ■

▲ Figure 3. An example of GIS output for Hilo Bay, Hawaii used to monitor changes inecosystem habitats. Bathymetric contours are in meters and the shading is a function ofsubstrate and reef composition. Source: Division of Aquatic Resources, Department ofLands and Natural Resources, State of Hawaii.


The changing seaLong-term biogeochemical variability in the subtropical North Pacific

University of Hawaii at ManoaDept. of OceanographyHonolulu, Hawaii 96822E-Mail: [email protected]

David M. KarlProfessor of OceanographyUniversity of Hawaii

The accretion and subduction ofoceanic plates, the rise and fall of sealevel and the emergence and subsid-ence of islands are part of the geologi-cal history of the Pacific basin. Onshorter time scales, tides wax and wane,seasons pass and climate patternschange. For the organisms that inhabitthe North Pacific Subtropical Gyre,nothing is constant except change andnothing is certain except stratificationof the water column, low nutrients andlow biomass.

Because of the role the ocean playsin the global carbon cycle, it is impera-tive to study and understand ecologicalprocesses in open ocean ecosystems likethe North Pacific gyre. Once consideredto be a homogeneous, static habitat,this region exhibits substantial physi-cal, chemical and biological variabilityon many time scales. Currents and me-soscale eddies can interact to producevigorous vertical motions that delivershort-lived pulses of nutrients, withoutwarning, to an ecosystem that is other-wise starved of nutrients. These physi-cal processes can alter the status quoabruptly, stimulating pulses of primaryproduction and particle export andproviding brief opportunities for car-bon sequestration. Because of the sto-chastic nature of these events,occasional cruises to the gyre havefailed to observe the system under theseconditions.

In 1988, a deep-ocean station wasestablished north of Hawaii within theNorth Pacific gyre to support the scien-tific goals of both JGOFS (Joint GlobalOcean Flux Study) and the WorldOcean Circulation Experiment. By theend of 1998, the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) program will have com-pleted 100 cruises to Station ALOHA,

located at 22° 45’N, 158° W, with com-prehensive seasonal coverage. The HOTprogram, which has already assembledthe largest and most comprehensiveecological data set for the region, isnow funded for continuation into thenext millenium. This serial measure-ment program, with a focus on physi-cal-biogeochemical coupling andmicrobial processes, has yielded unex-pected results that challenge past viewsof biogeochemical cycles in the olig-otrophic North Pacific.

The HOT program core measure-ments for U.S. JGOFS were selected tovalidate and improve existing bio-geochemical models of element cycles.Among the ecosystem processes underinvestigation are the flux of carbon at

the air-sea interface and the rates andcontrols of the biological pump.Equally important are the time-depen-dent changes in microbial biomass andbiodiversity and the relationships ofthese ecosystem changes to extratropi-cal ocean-atmosphere interactions suchas the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycle. The HOT data set isunique, robust and rich with previouslyundocumented phenomena, and thescientific results of this decade-longstudy are providing an unprecedentedview of biogeochemical cycles in a pre-viously undersampled region of theworld ocean.

When the HOT program began, wethought that we had a good under-standing of the biogeochemical pro-

▲ Figure 1. Phytoplankton community parameters for the subtropical North Pacificbased on data from the CLIMAX and HOT time-series programs. The upper panel showsdepth-integrated chlorophyll concentrations in the euphotic zone. The lower panelshows depth-integrated rates of primary production in the euphotic zone.



cesses in the North Pacific gyre. Newand export production were limited bythe supply of nitrate from below theeuphotic zone, and rates of primaryproduction were thought to be largelysupported by a local supply of regener-ated nitrogen in the form of ammo-nium. Photosynthetic rates were low,less than 200 milligrams of carbon persquare meter per day (mg C/m2/d), andeucaryotic micro- and nano-phy-toplankton assemblages dominated thephotoautotrophic biomass. NeitherProchlorococcus, now recognized as themost abundant oxygenic photoau-totroph in terms of numbers and biom-ass, nor planktonic Archaea had yetbeen discovered. Potentially importantbiogeochemical fluxes such as photo-synthetic production of dissolved or-ganic matter (DOM), nitrification andnitrogen fixation were thought to benegligible.

We now recognize that the con-temporary North Pacific gyre is a verydifferent ecosystem. Based on our de-cade-long data set, we hypothesize thata fundamental shift from nitrogen limi-tation to phosphorus limitation hastaken place. Changes in the physicalenvironment, especially increased den-sity stratification, favor bacteria thatcan fix free nitrogen (N2) from the at-mosphere, including Trichodesmium,selected species of Synechococcus andperhaps other free-living and symbioticBacteria. We believe that these habitatchanges are a direct consequence of theincreased frequency and duration ofENSO cycles and related atmosphere-ocean interactions.

Nitrogen budget estimates for Sta-tion ALOHA suggest that N2 fixationmay currently supply up to half of thenitrogen required to sustain particulatematter export from the euphotic zone.However, this relatively high percent-age of N2-supported new productionappears to be a transient condition,reflecting either natural oceanic vari-ability or perhaps a new state estab-lished in response to the changes inenvironmental conditions.

The influence of climate variabilityon oceanic biogeochemical cycles, espe-cially on decade-to-century time scales,is not well understood. Although thereare several case studies documentingthe effects of climate variability on the

structure and function of selected ma-rine ecosystems, especially fisheries,few data exist on changes in new orexport production pathways or ratesthat could be incorporated into globalcarbon sequestration models.

One major obstacle is the potentialtemporal offset between physical per-turbation and ecological response andthe general resiliency of natural com-munities in response to external physi-cal forces. One might therefore predictan abrupt, threshold response that is

delayed in time rather than a slow,gradual ecological change. This featurecomplicates cause-and-effect interpreta-tions.

A major and abrupt shift in theNorth Pacific climate system occurredduring 1976-1977 that manifested itselfas an intensification and eastward shiftof the Aleutian low-pressure systemduring winter. This shift resulted in adecade-long cooling phase in surfacewaters. In 1987, Elizabeth Venrick of

▲ Figure 2. The effects of climate variability on ecosystem structure and function in theNorth Pacific Subtropical Gyre. Results obtained from the HOT program and other time-series studies in the region indicate that changes in the stratification of the surface oceanhave affected nutrient and trace-element budgets. These changes have also selected fornitrogen-fixing bacteria and Prochlorococcus, resulting in a shift in domain from predomi-nantly Eucarya to predominantly Bacteria.


This year’s Atlantic hurricane sea-son will bring more tropical storms,hurricanes and intense hurricanes thanusual, say scientists in the first hurri-cane outlook ever released by the Na-tional Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration at the beginning of theJune-November season.

The outlook says there are in-creased chances for greater-than-aver-age hurricane activity and three ormore intense storms. A normal Atlantichurricane season includes nine to 10tropical storms, of which five to six arehurricanes and two are classified asintense hurricanes.

“The intensified hurricane activitymay be influenced in part by a linger-ing La Niña episode, which our scien-tists expect to continue at its currentstrength through the hurricane season,and which could help maintain condi-tions favoring increasing hurricaneactivity,” said D. James Baker, NOAAadministrator. La Niña refers to cooler-than-average sea-surface temperaturesacross the central and eastern tropicalPacific Ocean, which historically havecontributed to a greater number of hur-ricanes in the Atlantic during a givenseason.

In June, all National Weather Ser-vice forecast offices will be fully up-graded with advanced interactivecomputer systems, a centerpiece of the$4.5 billion modernization programthat has been a priority of the ClintonAdministration. The modernizationalso includes new technologies such asDoppler radars, satellites, and a state-of-the-art hurricane surveillance jet.

“The increased capabilities pro-vided by these technologies enable usto better forecast hurricane-relatedweather and flooding, and get out moretimely warnings that may save lives,”said John J. Kelly Jr., National WeatherService director. “But warnings meannothing if people don’t get the word,”he added.

Kelly said one of the best ways toget official National Weather Servicewarnings and severe weather informa-tion instantly is through NOAAWeather Radio. The newest models ofthese special radio receivers can be pro-

grammed to sound an alarm when dan-gerous weather for your area is immi-nent.

With increased potential for cata-strophic property damage and loss oflife along the coasts, it has becomeeven more important for federal, stateand local governments, individuals andlocal businesses to take preventativeactions. Programs such as the FederalEmergency Management Agency’sProject Impact: Building Disaster Resis-tant Communities have helped com-munities better prepare for hurricaneseason. Through this effort, both thepublic and private sectors are beginningto take greater responsibility for theirlives and property during natural disas-ters.

“Through this key partnership, weare using advancing technology to re-duce the impact of hurricanes andother natural disasters,” said FEMA Di-rector James Lee Witt. “FEMA is encour-aging communities to take action nowto prevent possible damage and to re-duce losses that might occur this hurri-cane season.”

Last year, NOAA’s Climate Predic-tion Center issued its first-ever Atlantichurricane outlook in early August, toindicate whether the remaining seasonwould bring increased, lessened, or

normal activity. The scientists accu-rately predicted that there would be anabove-normal number of tropicalstorms and hurricanes in the Atlanticbetween August and October, the busi-est period of the hurricane season.

The 1998 Atlantic hurricane seasonbrought 14 tropical cycles, includingthree major hurricanes. These stormsinflicted $7.3 billion in damages and 23fatalities in the United States alone.

NOAA will issue another outlook inAugust, which will update the outlook.The 1999 Hurricane Outlook can befound at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.Information about FEMA and its pro-grams can be found at http://www.FEMA.gov.

—Frank LeporeNOAA/National Hurricane Center

Florida International UniversityMiami, FL 33199

andKim Fuller

FEMAWashington, DC 20472 ■

Busy Atlantic hurricane season foreseen

▲ Figure 1. Hurricane Mitch at category 5 strength in October 1998.


Craig A. Carlson, Nicholas R. Batesand Deborah K. SteinbergBermuda Biological Station forResearch

The Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) passed a signifi-cant milestone on October 27 whenR/V Weatherbird II docked at theBermuda Biological Station for Re-search (BBSR) after a visit to theBATS station, located 80 kilometerssoutheast of the island. This cruise,the 173rd to the BATS station,marked the tenth anniversary of thelaunching of the U.S. JGOFS (JointGlobal Ocean Flux Study) time-series study in the Sargasso Sea.

The decade-long BATS data setprovides the oceanographic com-munity with a unique opportunityto observe the variability of bio-geochemical phenomena on sea-sonal, annual and interannual timescales. The continuous time-seriesrecord amassed during BATS enablesresearchers to detect subtle changesin ocean biogeochemistry thatwould not be apparent otherwise.

The focus of this year’s U.S.JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Pro-gram (SMP) workshop, held inDurham, New Hampshire, duringJuly, was on the response of oceanbiology and biogeochemistry toclimate change. Atmospheric gen-eral circulation models (GCMs)have predicted a warming of theatmosphere by more than 2° C bythe middle of next century. OceanGCMs predict increased verticalstratification of the upper watercolumn as a result of warming inthe lower latitudes and fresheningof surface waters at higher latitudes.This increased stratification is likelyto have an effect on biological pro-

cesses in the surface ocean and the flux ofmaterials between surface and deep waters.

Trends observed during BATS and itssister time-series study near Hawaii (theHawaii Ocean Time-series study, or HOT)allow oceanographers and modelers toimprove their understanding and thustheir ability to predict potential changes inthe processes of the upper ocean as a resultof changes in climate variables. In this ar-ticle, we are focusing our attention on po-tential changes in the cycling of organicand inorganic carbon.

BATS data can be used to examine thepotential effects of increased stratificationon biological activity in surface waters. TheSargasso Sea undergoes wintertime convec-tive mixing and seasonal thermal stratifica-tion each year. Mineral nutrients, verticallymixed into the euphotic zone every winter,disappear as stratification begins. The ab-sence of inorganic nutrients affects thestructure of the phytoplankton commu-nity, which in turn affects the cycling oforganic matter.

The phytoplankton community in thisregion is dominated by picoplankton, or-ganisms smaller than two microns. Modelsdeveloped by Anthony Michaels of theUniversity of Southern California and MarySilver of the University of California atSanta Barbara suggest that picoplankton

are minor contributors to particle ex-port. They are primarily involved inregenerative production and an activemicrobial foodweb.

Several studies have suggested thatpicoplankton production and process-ing of organic matter through the mi-crobial foodweb affect the quality ofdissolved organic matter (DOM). A sig-nificant portion of the DOM producedin communities dominated bypicoplankton is not available for rapidmicrobial degradation; thus DOM accu-mulates in the upper 100 meters of thewater column during the warmermonths. A portion of this seasonallyaccumulated organic matter is mixed orexported to deep depths in the winter,reducing the concentrations of DOM inthe surface waters. The amount ofDOM removed from the upper 100meters depends on the intensity of thewinter mixing or the depth to which itoccurs.

We also use BATS data to examinethe relationship between winter mixingand the dissolved organic carbon(DOC) cycle. From 1995 to 1998, thedepth of the winter mixing has de-creased by more than 100 meters. Den-nis Hansell and Craig Carlson of BBSRhave observed that the amount of DOC

Ten years of BATS DataA unique opportunity to observe the variability of biogeochemical phenomena

▲ Figure 1. Interannual variablilty of total CO2 at the BATS site. TCO2 concentrations haveincreased at a rate of approximately two micromoles per kilogram per year, or about 0.1%per year.

Bermuda Biological Station forResearch, Inc.17 Biological Station LaneFerry Reach, St. Georges GE01BermudaE-mail: [email protected]

—continued on page 10


retained in the surface waters duringthis period has increased by approxi-mately 300 millimoles of carbon persquare meter. The annual export ofsuspended organic carbon in both dis-solved and particulate form from thesurface 100 meters has decreased fromover 1 mole of carbon per square meterper year (1 mol C/m2/yr) during 1992,1993 and 1995 to approximately 0.5mol C/m2/yr for 1996 through 1998.

These observations demonstratethat during periods when the depth ofseasonal deep mixing is reduced, lessDOM is exported from the surfacewater. These changes suggest that in-creased stratification in picoplankton-dominated systems could lead to anincreased accumulation and storage oforganic carbon in the surface waters ofsubtropical and temperate regions asthe atmosphere warms.

BATS data have also been valuablefor investigating long-term changes ininorganic carbon cycling. For example,long-term observations of carbon diox-ide (CO2) concentrations in seawater attime-series sites provide a direct meansof determining the rate of oceanic accu-mulation of anthropogenic CO2 as wellas information on natural variability.

At the BATS site, Nicholas Bates ofBBSR has observed significant changesin oceanic CO2 concentrations and theexchange of CO2 between ocean andatmosphere over the last decade. Con-centrations of total carbon dioxide(TCO2) in the upper ocean have in-creased at a rate of approximately twomicromoles per kilogram per year(µmol/kg/yr) or about 0.1% per year(Figure 1). At the same time, the partialpressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) inthe surface waters at BATS has increasedat twice the rate of the atmosphericCO2 increase over the Sargasso Sea. Theinterannual increase in pCO2 that wehave observed at BATS is about doublethat observed at the HOT site north ofHawaii.

To our surprise, the increase inoceanic TCO2 is greater than we wouldexpect to see if sequestration of anthro-pogenic CO2 from the atmosphere werethe only source. The additional changesappear to be related to natural variabil-ity in the subtropical gyre. From 1988to 1998, TCO2 concentrations in the

18° C mode water, a water mass thatlies below the seasonal thermocline,have increased at a rate of approxi-mately two µmol/kg/yr. At the sametime, the uppermost boundary of 18° Cmode water has moved to shallowerdepths in the Sargasso Sea. Biogeo-chemical changes in this water massappear to be an important contributorto the natural variability in TCO2 con-

centrations in the upper ocean of theSargasso Sea.

The mechanisms that causechanges in 18° C mode water propertiesare unclear at present. Undertakingspecific biogeochemical studies alongwith the long-term measurements atthe BATS site will potentially allowoceanographers to identify and quan-tify sources of natural variability. ■

▲ Figure 2. Launching a CTD rosette on a BATS cruise.

Ten years of BATS, from page 9


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GLOBE digital elevation modelreleased

The Committee on Earth ObservationSatellites Task Team on the Global LandOne-km Base Elevation (GLOBE) digitalelevation model placed GLOBE Version1.0 on its Website recently. This is thedefinitive global digital elevation data set,at better than 1-kilometer gridding. TheGLOBE Task Team is headquartered atNGDC; the Website is http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/topo/globe.shtmlContact: NGDC

NCDC data saves hotel $8000 The maintenance director for a largehotel organization in Charlotte, NC, no-ticed unusually high heating costs for aportion of the company’s property duringJanuary 1999. The National Climatic DataCenter (NCDC) provided the managerwith December 1998 and January 1999heating degree-day data for Charlotte touse in this energy analysis study. TheNCDC heating degree-day data showedlittle difference between the two monthsand the utility company refunded $8,000from the original gas bill. The directorshared his company's good experiencewith other attendees at a Charlotte meet-ing of the Contingency Planning Associa-tion of the Carolinas (CPAC), an organiza-tion chaired by an NCDC meteorologist.Contact: NCDC

DMSP article on nighttime lights The Defense Meteorological SatelliteProgram (DMSP) has published an article(in Remote Sens. Environ., vol. 68, pp. 77-88) which describes the methods used togenerate the first radiance-calibratednighttime lights data set. Normally the sensor gain is turnedup so high that the cores of cities andlarge towns are saturated and cannot becalibrated. NGDC worked with the AirForce Weather Agency to reduce the gainsetting, avoiding saturation. The pre-flightsensor calibration is used to convert theobserved values into radiance (brightness)units. Previous “stable lights” data setsproduced by NGDC showed the locationsof lights and their detection frequency. Apreliminary examination of the radiance-calibrated lights indicates they are morehighly correlated to "human activity" lev-els than the stable lights.Contact: NGDC

NGDC paper on Lake Erie geomor-phology attracts press coverage

Dr. Troy Holcombe of the NationalGeophysical Data Center (NGDC) wasinterviewed by Mr. Frank Lichtkoppler, amedia specialist with Ohio Sea Grant,who prepared press releases for the May1999 meeting of the International Asso-ciation of Great Lakes Research (IAGLR)held in Cleveland. Dr. Holcombe pre-sented a paper at this meeting, entitled”Aspects of Lake Erie Geomorphology“.

The press releases regarding thispaper were forwarded to 100 media out-lets in the Great Lakes region. One of thehighlights of this paper mentions thefinding that now-submerged river deltas,offshore bars, and other geological fea-tures, shown on the new bathymetry,provide additional evidence that Lake Eriewater levels were on the order of 10 to 20meters (31 to 62 feet) lower 5,000 to

10,000 years ago than at present.Contact: NGDC

NBC tornado coverage The National Broadcasting Company(NBC) contacted the National ClimaticData Center the morning of May 5 (afterthe multi-tornado outbreak in the Mid-west), requesting to do a short interviewregarding the NCDC Web Page - BillionDollar Weather Disasters. See the URL:http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/o1/reports/billionz.html NBC News cameraman Lewis Baileytaped NCDC meteorologist Neal Lottwhile Lott was being interviewed via tele-phone by NBC correspondent BobDotson. The interview aired on the”Nightly News“ broadcast that evening. Mr. Dotson had recently seen thePress Release on ”Billion Dollar U.S.Weather Disasters 1980-1999“ and em-phasized that even though the May 4tornado disaster in Oklahoma and Kansaswas very destructive it wasn‘t the worstnatural disaster in recent time. The fre-quency of occurrences and costs of majornatural disasters used in the segmentwere provided by the NCDC. Topics cov-ered in the interview included: 1) Comparison of natural disasters in the1980s vs. 1990s 2) Increasing damage amounts fromevents due to inflation and migration ofthe population to high risk areas 3) Damage from hurricanes, floods, anddroughts tend to be more expensive thantornado damage costs 4) Trends in hurricanes over the last fewyears and the influence from El Nino andLa Nina 5) Increasing frequency of eventsContact: NCDC

CALJET precipitation study The National Climatic Data Center(NCDC) provided ship, C-MAN, and buoydata observed during the California land-falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) toNOAA's Environmental Technology Labo-ratory (ETL). The CALJET field experiment,which collected meteorological data fromNovember 1997 through March 1998,was conducted to study orographic pre-cipitation along the U.S. West Coast andto assess the impact of the low leveljetstream in enhancing the orographicprecipitation.Contact: NCDC


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Monitor

The changing sea, from page 7Scripps Institution of Oceanographyand her colleagues reported that theaverage euphotic zone chlorophyll aconcentration in the oligotrophic NorthPacific during the summer had nearlydoubled from 1968 to 1985 (Figure 1).These investigators attributed their fieldobservations to the North Pacific regimeshift. The enhanced nutrient flux thataccompanied it had brought about sig-nificant long-term changes in the carry-ing capacity of the regional ecosystem.

Data from Station ALOHA haveextended this analysis of euphotic-zonechlorophyll a concentrations for nearlyanother decade. We now have a 30-yearchronology for the ecosystem of theNorth Pacific gyre (Figure 1). If causedby climate variations, these sustainedchanges could have important implica-tions for biogeochemical and fisheriesmodeling, especially if they reflect dif-ferences in plankton community struc-ture or foodweb interactions. Variationsin chlorophyll a levels may also affectcarbon production and export andbenthic processes, thereby altering localrates and pathways of carbon sequestra-tion. Biogeochemical models based onhistorical or even contemporary obser-vations may not be accurate predictorsof future trends.

This abrupt shift in climate, begin-ning in the mid 1970’s, was not unique.It appears to be an example of a recur-ring pattern of interdecadal climatevariability referred to as the Pacific (in-ter) Decade Oscillation, or PDO, de-scribed by Nathan Mantua of theUniversity of Washington and his col-leagues. The shift in regime appears tobe the result of the presence of persis-tently warm waters in tropical Pacificcaused by a high frequency and longduration of El Niño (warm) conditionsand lack of La Niña (cold) periods dur-ing the years from 1976 to 1988, butthe precise details are still unknown.Regardless of the cause, the documenta-tion of these large scale atmosphere-ocean interactions emphasizes the effectof external physical forces on planktoncommunities in the North Pacific.

Primary production also appears tohave increased in the region. Comparedto the 17-year CLIMAX program meanof 200 mg C/m2/d, the average ratefrom the HOT program is more than

twice as high (Figure 1). Furthermore,the ecosystem supports an even higherrate of gross primary production (750-1000 mg C/m2/d), much of which israpidly cycled through microbial foodwebs, in part because of the shift from anitrogen-limited to a phosphorus-lim-ited ecosystem.

I have hypothesized that thiscoupled intensification of both the ni-trogen cycle, via N2 fixation, and thephosphorus cycle has caused majorshifts in plankton community structureand in the rates and mechanisms oforganic matter production andremineralization. We have seen a selec-tion for Bacteria and a dramatic shiftfrom a eucaryote-dominated to a pro-caryote-dominated photoautotrophicspecies assemblage with numerous bio-geochemical and ecological conse-quences (Figure 2). Many of theseecological predictions are currently un-der investigation.

Chronic undersampling, a fact oflife in oceanography, constrains theinterpretation of field data. Neither spa-tial heterogeneity nor temporal inter-mittency are measured well byshipboard sampling, and the dimen-sions and dynamics of the North Pacificgyre preclude comprehensive sampling.Even decade-long ocean observationprograms like HOT are insufficient forunraveling some of the first-order ques-tions regarding biogeochemical re-sponse to climate variability andenvironmental change. But every suc-cessful time-series must have a begin-ning, and HOT program scientists nowhave an analytical finger on the ecologi-cal pulse of this important biome.

Synthesis of HOT program data andmodeling efforts are underway in nu-merous laboratories around the world.The HOT data set is available to all onthe World Wide Web (http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu). A major advan-tage of working with this extensive dataset is the rich spectrum of variabilityobserved in an ecosystem that was ex-pected a priori to be homogeneous. Adisadvantage is the lack of an accurateconceptual view of ecosystem processesto serve as the basis for future modelingactivities. The more we learn about thishabitat, the less we seem to understand.These surprises of the sea should keep usbusy for at least another decade. ■

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