COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS 2004. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NO PART OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE REPRODUCED IN ANY...

COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS 2004. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NO PART OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN ONSENT OF AMDOCS.

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Practical Approaches for Tracking of Advanced TechnologiesPractical Approaches for Tracking of Advanced Technologies

Amit Kleinmann

Director of Advanced Technologies

Amdocs

Amit Kleinmann

Director of Advanced Technologies

Amdocs

30 May 200530 May 2005

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COPYRIGHT © AMDOCS 2004. All rights reserved.

AgendaAgenda

1. What is an Advanced Technology ?

2. Why “Tracking of Advanced Technology” is needed?

3. Practical Tracking of Advanced Technologies

4. Summary and Challenges

5. Q&A

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Advanced Technologies Spur Cisco's Q2 GrowthBy Jennifer Hagendorf Follett, CRN Feb. 08, 2005 Advanced Technologies Spur Cisco's Q2 GrowthBy Jennifer Hagendorf Follett, CRN Feb. 08, 2005

• Continued focus on advanced technologies spurred its growth

• Sales of its six advanced technologies, grew an average of 40 percent for the quarter compared to a year ago

• "Our success in advanced technologies is a result of strategic choices we made three to five years ago”John Chambers, president and CEO of Cisco

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What is an “Advanced Technology”? What is an “Advanced Technology”?

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The Origin of the Word “Technology”The Origin of the Word “Technology”

> tekhnologiGreek

> tekhn = skill> logi (= logy) = Science; theory; study > Systematic treatment of an art or craft

> Anthropology: The body of knowledge available to a society that is of use in:

> fashioning implements, > practicing manual arts and skills,

> and extracting or collecting materialsThe American Heritage®

Dictionary of the English Language

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Science & TechnologyScience & Technology

> Science: the observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena

> Technology> The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or

industrial objectiveThe American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language

> The application of scientific knowledge to the practical aims of human life or, as it is sometimes phrased, to the change and manipulation of the human environmentEncyclopedia Britannica

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New/Advanced TechnologyNew/Advanced Technology

> What is considered advanced technology? > Hi-Tech, Low-Tech, or No-Tech> Sustaining/Legacy Technologies versus Disruptive Technologies

> Yet not productized in large scale> Technology maturity> Market readiness> Cost: too expensive (production, TCO)

> Innovation

> SW technologies> Windows NT - “The most flagrant abuse of this word”> Hard Disks => Relational DBs

> The timing effect

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Why “Tracking of Advanced Technology”

is needed?

Why “Tracking of Advanced Technology”

is needed?

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TLC: The S-Curve Concept of McKinseyTLC: The S-Curve Concept of McKinsey

Example: Data storage media evolution

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The Problem of:Managing Technological DiscontinuityThe Problem of:Managing Technological Discontinuity

> Technologies have reached their limit

> Associated products have not reached their growth limit in the market

> In the decisive point of time - the new technology has: > a lower level of competitiveness> but higher cumulated R&D expenditures

“It may seem economically perverse to begin investing in a new technology when there is still a lot of potential left in the old“Foster,

R.N.

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What does “Tracking” mean?What does “Tracking” mean?

> Awareness of something occurring or passing

> Tracking types> Passive Tracking

(observing )> Active Tracking

(following )> Visible versus invisible> Contribution, Influence

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Why Tracking Advance Technologies?Why Tracking Advance Technologies?

> Surveillance of total technological environment to identify:> technologies which may influence company’s future

> Strengthen the company's competitive advantage

> long-term technological developments for monitoring

> Gain understanding of technological threats & opportunities> What-if analysis + focus on the core business, e.g., IP Multicast security> New technology is needed to drive growth > Accelerate the development of innovative technologies

> Estimation of time scale of technological change> Provide information for reorienting company R&D policies

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Practical Tracking of

Advanced Technologies

Practical Tracking of

Advanced Technologies

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Selection of The Tracked TechnologiesSelection of The Tracked Technologies

> Scenario Analysis - explore alternative futures> Cross Impact Analysis

> Relevance Trees> Objectives and sub-objectives> Relevancy weights are assigned to tree elements

> by a panel of experts

> Delphi Method> Most widely used subjective method> Goal: achieve a consensus of opinion > Committee of expert opinion

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Winnowing Winnowing

> Our current knowledge about the world

> Focus> Determination of the “technology scope”

> The required depth of technology-understanding> Interdisciplinary> System overview

> Efficient filtering> Source evaluation

> Divide and conquer

> Simulating Annealing

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Information GatheringInformation Gathering

> Consolidating & synthesizing signals from various sources

> Sources type > External

> Internal

> Cost versus benefits

> Source evaluation

> Relevancy> Key players

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External SourcesExternal Sources

> Government/Defense/Army projects

> The Internet/Web> Portals> Search engines

http://www.google.com/advanced_search?hl=enwww.hoovers.com; www.thomasregister.com

> Mail-lists

> Professional magazines & periodicals> Conferences/Exhibition

> Large versus focused> Explanations from the experts

> Training (tutorials, courses, etc.)> Standardization/Specification bodies

> Interference> Examples: ITU; IEEE; IETF/IRTF; Cablelabs; IPDR

> Industry consortiums> Examples:

> IPMI> WiFi; WiMax> Chief scientist

> Informal communication> Friends & Family

> Patent archivespatft.uspto.gov

> Academy> Industry leaders

> Vendors> Operators

> Leading technology firms> R&D labs > Startups

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Internal SourcesInternal Sources

> Internal publications/Intranet> College articles> Example: Paul Green “All Optical Networks”

> Stakeholders who have firsthand insight into the workings of the business and a good intuition about how a technology might or might not fit

> Management > example: XTV

> Marketing department> Customers issues> Feedback

> Self research> Prototype development

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The Analysis ProcessThe Analysis Process

> Building the puzzle> Terminology formation> Classification and Taxonomy establishment> Cross reference> Identification of gaps

> Evaluations> Market assessments> Technical evaluation> Regulation environment> Prioritization

> Knowledge Sharing> Dissemination & feedback

> Intellectual property> Evaluation, Patent

> Archiving

o Significance of problem• Useful, Practical

o Benefits• Faster, Cheaper, Better

o Scale• Early adopters, Critical mass

o Key Players• Research firms: Lexis-Nexis; D&B

o Technology Matureness• Readiness - degree of technology dev.• What does it not do well• Ease of implementation• Manufacturing cost• Resource requirement

• Skill set requirement

• Probability of successo Examples: VOIP, IPTV

o Seminal patento Freedom to operateo Enforceableo Portfolioo Geographic coverageo Remaining life of patent

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Summary & Challenges in the

Process of

Advanced Technology Tracking

Summary & Challenges in the

Process of

Advanced Technology Tracking

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ChallengesChallenges

> Selection of the tracked technologies> Reflection of business strategy > Limits of the analyzed technologies

> Winnowing

> Confrontation with Technical gaps

> Uncertainty with regard to the development pattern and performance> Determination of performance measures

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Challenges (continues)Challenges (continues)

> Estimation of the needed R&D expenditures

> Resources/Budget> The paradox - the innovator's dilemma

> Keeping close to customers is critical for current success> Long-term growth and profit depend upon a very different

managerial formula

> Risk management> Internal/external investments, spin-offs

> Justification > Danger – justification becomes the main task> Build credibility

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Q&AQ&A

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Thank YouThank You

For more info please contact:[email protected]

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