Copyright 2011 Phil Heywood

Lecture Outline

A. Rapid Change & its implications1. Accelerating Pace of Social Evolution & Change2. Steady State & Punctuated Equilibrium Explanations3. Planning challenges & responses4. Buzz Pairs: Planning for Change & Conservation

B. Specific Challenges & Responses5. Physical6. Technological 7. Social8. Economic9. Political10.Conclusions

Accelerating Pace of Change in Human Society

EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY:

1. 2.5 mill years of working – Homo Habilis , making tools

2. 1.5 mill years of walking upright – Homo Erectus, modern posture & large brain.

3. 0.1 mill years of modern rationalist humanity – Homo Sapiens. out-competing bigger brained, more individualistic Neanderthal mankind

4. 0.01mill (10,000) years of stable Neolithic farming culture

Accelerating Pace of Change in Human Society

EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY cont.:

5. 5,000 years of urban civilization & turbulent urban change

6. 500 years of Scientific & Industrial Revolutions

7. 50 years of Info tech transformations, from mainframe computers of 1950s to Iphones, Blackberries & Ipads of today. & from lending libraries to Google’s Global Library & Wikipedia

8. 20 years of accelerating physical, social, economic & political changes from organized hierarchies to dynamic networks.

Prevailing Paradigm of Evolution of Species & Society

Darwin’s assumptions of a continuous Adaptive Responsewhere “Everything is for the Best In This Best of All Possible

Worlds”, resulting in the steady state evolution of best adapted species by the “hidden hand” of a benign nature securing survival of the fittest, very like the “hidden hand” of Smith’s laws of supply & demand

But perhaps not – perhaps a random world where we must rely on our capacity to cooperate in the face of dramatic & random changes.

Counter Dominant Paradigm of Punctuated Equilibrium*

IN GEOLOGYEvidence of the rocks- long periods of stability interrupted by

sudden catastrophic changes:1. Sharp horizons between Geological epochs:2. Ice ages & Glaciation 3. Species extinction events - Extinction of Dinosaurs at the

end of Cretaceous.

IN LITERATUREEvidence of early writing & Legends – Noah’s Ark, Legend of

Atlantis, floods of Gilgamesh’s Epic, etc.Evidence of Great Floods & rapid sea level change.

* J.S. Gould, 1987, Times Cycle, Times Arrow

Counter Dominant Paradigm of Punctuated Equilibrium

RESULTING HYPOTHESIS

Conditions will tend to achieve balance and retain stability for long periods of time, before rapid and interactive changes create a period of cascading physical change, triggering resultant social change.

Responses of Reason & Planning to Rapid Change

Jarred Diamond’s thesis (Collapse, 2006):

1. Societies have choices: to fail through superstition or survive & prosper through reason

2. Societies that don’t understand or manage changes may be destroyed by them: - Easter Island and Anasazi Indians deforestation, Viking

Greenland conservatism, Mayan death cult, human sacrifices & repression3. Those that do understand & plan:

a. Successful adaptation in “marginal” Icelandb. Forest conservation in resource-restricted Tokugawa Japanc. Civilization, art & scholarly regulation in monsoon and

border-threatened Chinad. Polder model of civil engineering & governance in flood

threatened Netherlands 4. The World as a Polder, keeping out the floods: a recipe for today?

BUZZ PAIRS

- One member of the pair identifies & describes an issue where planning is having to deal with rapid change.

- The other member identifies & describes an issue where planning should aim to maintain continuity and conservation.

Current Cascade of Challenges of Change & Response

1. Physical Climatea. Climate Change

2. Technological Climatea. Communications, ICT & the Webb. Transport transformations

3. Social Climatea. Splintering Urbanism, decentralisation & the challenge to city centres

4. Economic Climatea. Global Financial Crisisb. National Economic Crises – USA, Greece, Japan etc

5. Political Climatea. Governance changes, amalgamations and devolution b. Political Ferment - Neo Libs, Neo Cons, Neo Keynesians & “Third Way”

advocatesc. No World Order & increased migration

1. Climate ChangeCHANGE AREA CHALLENGE RESPONSES

Freshwater resources

Droughts, water storage, purified water recycling, desalination, power consumption

Integrated but inclusive regional water catchment participation & management

Coastal systems & wetlands in low lying areas

Alternating episodes of flooding and desiccation

Wetland designations & reservations ; Island evacuation schemes in Maldives. South Pacific consultation & planning.

Ecosystems, crop production

Return of spectre of food shortages, famines and mass starvation

Village co-ops in Africa, crop diversification in South Asia, review of fossil fuel replacement schemes

Industry Carbon emissions tax, pricing or trading; energy pricing; managing end of fossil oil epoch.

Re- direction and re-tooling of production – smaller vehicles, active & public transport, Green technologies

Settlements Reduce energy consumption, carbon emissions, increase densities, avoid flood prone valleys

Urban Growth Boundaries; divert work journeys to public & active transport; design of low energy settlements

Health Control danger of Malaria & insect borne diseases & epidemics

Mosquito eradication & health education programs.

Community Action for Climate Change in Oxfordshire

The world's climate is changing. Within just a few decades, if nothing is done to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, large areas of the planet's surface will become uninhabitable. This is the greatest threat ever to face humanity, and we need to begin to reduce global emissions within the next 10 years if we are to act in time.

What’s Happening in Oxford

1. Buying more in local shops rather than in supermarkets- community action for global welfare

2. Using cars less and walking and cycling more- an Oxford tradition!

3. Growing more of our own food and managing woodlands for firewood

4. Encouraging the purchase of fairly traded, low carbon-footprint goods which truly benefit producer communities in other parts of the world

5. Measuring our carbon footprints in order to identify where we can improve, and to monitor progress

6. Reducing the number of non-essential overseas flights we take.

What’s Happening in Oxford

7. Reducing our energy use within the home, by insulating, installing low-energy bulbs, etc.

8. Generating our own power renewably, including solar panels, wind turbines and biomass as appropriate.

9. Reducing our landfill waste to zero by reducing consumption, re-using and recycling our waste.

10. Supporting those around the world, particularly the poorest, who suffer the impacts of global warming-related disasters.

11. Helping and supporting other residents and groups in Wolvercote (and more widely in the UK and worldwide) to pursue these goals.

Source: Lo Carb Oxon

Impacts in the Marshall Islands

As waters rise, the islands will not "disappear", but become increasingly prone to erosion, typhoons, floods, well water contamination, and coral bleaching. There is a very real possibility that the country's 60,000 indigenous inhabitants will have to leave their homeland in the next 50 years.

For the Marshallese people, the ocean has always been a source of both sustenance and danger. But nowadays, climate change is causing the sea to shrink as a resource and grow as a threat.

Impacts in the Marshall IslandsWe must not think of the Marshallese as merely victims, and certainly not as passive. To do so would be to deny the ability of people - all across the globe and through time - to adapt to all sorts of changes. It is too early to abandon hope for a resilient Marshall Islands.. But this does not change the fact that sea level rise is a grave threat to entire nations, and evacuation is not to be taken lightly.

It is the duty of Western citizens and governments to help prevent this forced relocation, and - if worst comes to worst - to accept the people as refugees. Some scholars are uncomfortable with calling such migrants "refugees", but there can be no other word for people forced by others' negligence to leave their homes of 2000 years.

2. Technological ChangesCHANGE AREA CHALLENGES RESPONSES

Information Access & Exchange.

Increased speed, scale & reduced cost

Retain vitality of local community life & capture advantages of increased interaction

Public sector involvement in InfoTech infrastructure & integration into community & economic planning - Commonwealth Govt. Cable rollout.

Increased “glocal” awareness

Cooperation to achieve mutual benefit within the global community

Promotion of Fair Trade, based on human skills & global networks.

Location & roles of global seaports

Plan & integrate downstream locationsBest community use of inner city sites now available

Port Redevelopment Agencies: integrated reclamation schemes (London Docklands, San Francisco's Fisherman’s Wharf, Brisbane’s Northshore & Portside, Rotterdam’s central docks redevelopment)

Regional & national roles & demands of “Aerotropolises”

Maintaining liveable metro & local settlements with integrated central places & transport

Negotiative Planning to integrate airports into regional planning and protect local communities from excessive impacts of noise and traffic

Managing Land Use Change:Olympic Redevelopment in London’s Lea Valley

Master plan for London's 2012 Olympic bid, envisages the creation of the largest urban park in Europe for 200 years. More than half of the facilities for the games will be packed on to a 500-acre Lea Valley site, including main stadium & Olympic village.

Managing Land Use Change:Olympic Redevelopment in London’s Lea Valley

This will be surrounded by green land extending from Hackney and Stratford in the north to Canning Town in the south, with a total area of 1500 acres.

The master plan includes: a.An 80,000-seater stadium at Marshgate Lane in the centre of the "Olympic Precinct" b.A 17,000-capacity Olympic village near Stratford c.A major bridge over the A12 in the north of the scheme.d.Scheme sits on both sides of River Lea, a tributary of the Thames, with 200 bridges of varying sizee.“Legacy" plans to link the entire site to the Thames Gateway urban growth area after the games. Many of the Olympic facilities would be converted to create up to 40,000 homes by 2020.

The Lea Valley & the Urban Region

The River Lea

1.The River Lea runs from Leagrave at the edge of Luton into Hertfordshire and the south to enter Greater London near Waltham Cross. It continues south through Enfield Lock, Ponders End, Brimsdown and Tottenham Hale to Stratford.

2. The area is home to some of the most deprived communities in the UK and has been identified as the inner London area with the greatest potential for regeneration – it is estimated that 25% of London’s growth will take place here.

3.The successful 2012 Games and Stratford City development will act as a driver for investment over the next 30-40 years.

Reclamation in the Lower Lea ValleyIn the area to the south east of the Olympic Park site, Stratford town centre will develop as a new metropolitan centre for new homes and employment.

Further south, Canning Town and Custom House will benefit from an improved town centre, demolition of 1,700 dilapidated homes and construction of 3,900 new homes. LTGDC has been working closely with the London Borough of Newham to deliver the physical and social change in the area.

Reclamation in the Lower Lea Valley

Further commercial and residential development is proposed at Bromley-by-Bow, with a new school and health facilities.

The Lea River Park will link to a ribbon of green space stretching north to the Olympic Park and south to the River Thames. A new lock and water control structure will encourage commerce &l and recreation. At the southern end, the East India Dock will be improved and regenerated.

LTGDC is funding land acquisition in Stratford and Custom House as well as contributing resources to the management and future planning of the area.

Lower Lea Valley Summary

1.The Lower Lea Valley stretches from the 2012 Games site at Stratford, south to the River Thames, bounded by Hackney Wick and Hackney Marshes to the north and extends east from the A12 to the Stratford & Canning Town rail line

2.The Mayor of London’s Opportunity Areas Planning Framework, adopted in February 2008, anticipated 40,000 new homes and 50,000 jobs in the area.

3.LTGDC’s contribution, working with the private sector, by 2016 will be:• 11,000 homes • 5,000 jobs • £3bn of private sector investment • More than 100,000 sq metres of commercial space • 12km of new roads • 92 hectares of Brownfield land in fresh use.

3. Social and Planning ClimateCHANGE AREAS CHALLENGES RESPONSES

“Splintering” Urbanism

To maintain activity centres & convenient central places- for intellectual, social and economic vitality

Focussed investment: TODs, UGBs, co-location of community facilities; Regional & Urban Infrastructure Plans & Planning .Integrated development schemes- Sydney’s Homebush, Pertha’s Subiaco, London’s Lea Valley & Stratford, SEQ’s Western Corridor, Ripley Valley & Northshore

Decentralisation To maintain, promote and create communities with vital community life

District, Local & Neighbourhood Policy & Infrastructure Planning & Investment

Challenges to City Centres , Inner Cities & Central Places

Policy processes to evaluate proposals e.g. Toll Tunnels, Inner city Vehicular Bridges, & “roadifying” of inner cities & all central places

Creation of unique pedestrian & cultural focal points in central areas and places throughout settlements

4. Economic Change & CrisesCHANGE AREA CHALLENGES RESPONSES

The Reach of the Global Economy

Maintain full employment Regional Economic Development Planning (RED)Local Economic Development (LED)

Foreign Direct Investment

Protect local interests and jobs (avoid “International Division of Labour” )Discourage foreign military adventures “Where a man’s treasure is there will be his heart (and soldiers?) also”

Planned partnership schemes protected by local and national government participation and regulations.Sponsorship of investment in local communities with overseas links

Global recessions & their tides of national and local impacts

Economic Stimulus Packages & developing action- ready proposals & schemes

Planned encouragement for community initiatives in cooperative and community enterprises

Market Failures in Housing & Homelessness

Maintain adequate, appropriate and affordable housing stock

Public players in Land Market: ULDA, SA Urban Land Trust (SAULT)]:Public Development Corporations;Public Social & Cooperative Housing (Brisbane Housing Company)

5. Rapid Political ChangeCHANGE AREAS CHALLENGES RESPONSES

Governance changes, amalgamations and devolution

To maintain community vitality & engagement in settlements & areas of increasingly large scale

Community & Neighbourhood Councils, Community Boards, Neighbourhood & Community Planning Teams, Creek Catchment Coordinating Committees

Political ferment - Neo Libs, Neo Cons, Neo Keynesians & “Third Way” advocates & converts

Reconstruction of Government engagement methods & activities. Opportunities for cooperation with a range of partners

Local , regional and cooperative government enterprises and partnerships– economic promotion, water, power, culture , art, etc.Support for individual and private enterprise- associational economics, micro credit & incubator premises for industry, commerce and art

Splintered world order & increased migration.

Managing impact of Global Economy in a situation of no clear rules.

Public sector & community involvement as partner and watchdog.Scrutiny of foreign ownership of local assets .

Collapse of Communism & Crisis of Capitalism

Opportunities for social, community & cooperative organization & initiatives

Community Initiatives & engagement;Public investment in community activities

Conclusions

In this time of unprecedented & accelerating change, we must make choices & take decisions:

Options: • Freewheel bike race down the mountain – exhilarating but dangerous – e.g. GFC

• Being “present in the present” but also undertaking mixed scanning & applying communicative community planning & development to manage impacts and maximize benefits from cascades of change.

Comments & Questions?