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Transcript of Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook...
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
LED Supply/Demand Outlook
October 25 - 27, 2010San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA, USPira Intertech
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
2
Outline
• State of LED Supply– Regional– LED Manufacturer– LED Tool Maker
• LED Demand– Small/Medium Displays– Large Area Displays– Lighting– Automotive/Signaling– Others
• Supply/Demand – Reactor Forecast• Forecast Deviations
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
LED Supply
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
4
Supply Model
• Methodology– Survey Tool Makers and LED
Producers by: – Tool Model
• Capacity• Install Dates• Bookings
– Model the production based on:• Average Die Size/application• Yields/Application
– Epi– Binning
• Calculate Runs/day• Apply
– Fab Utilization– Packaging Yield
• Results– Fab/Wafer Capacity– Epi Yield– Binned Die Capability– Production by
• Tool Maker• LED Producer• Region• Wafer
• Application
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
5
MOCVD Installed Base
• MOCVD tool count will grow by 50% from 2009 to 2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10
Inst
alle
d R
eact
ors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Gro
wth
Reactors
Y/Y Growth
Q/Q Growth
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
6
MOCVD Installed Base by Region
• Chinese government supporting tool purchases:– 13 regional industrial bases– Land/Tax Abatements– US$1.1m to US$1.8M tool subsidies
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10
Sha
re
Taiwan Korea
Japan China
USA Europe
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
7
MOCVD Supplier Installs
• New tool shipments and capacity growing exponentially in 2010
Company Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10e
Aixtron 15 41 70 101 130 159
Veeco 7 22 36 48 81 100
Nippon Sanso 0 75 75 75 225 225
Other 0 0 0 0 7 12
Total 22 138 181 224 443 496
Q/Q Growth 31% 24% 98% 12%
Y/Y Growth 1914% 259%
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
8
Wafer Capacity (000)
• Wafer size shifting from 2” and 3” to 4”• 6” wafers increase market share in terms of capacity
2009 2010 Growth 2009 Share 2010 Share
2" 45255 60751 34% 73% 63%
3" 5070 4378 -14% 8% 5%
4" 11130 30257 172% 18% 31%
6" 356 1710 380% 1% 2%
Total 61812 97096 57% 100% 100%
Wafer (000)
2009 Area 2010 Area Growth 2009 Share 2010 Share
2" 92 123 34% 43% 29%
3" 23 20 -14% 11% 5%
4" 90 245 172% 43% 58%
6" 6 31 380% 3% 7%
Total 212 420 98% 100% 100%
sq. m (000)
Wafer Size
Wafer Size
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
9
Die Capacity(m) and Growth
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10
Die
(m)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Gro
wth
Total
Q/Q Growth
Y/Y Growth
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
10
Binned Die(m)and Growth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10
Bin
ned
Die
(m
)
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Gro
wth
Total
Y/Y Growth
Q/Q Growth
Source: YMR
• Includes epi and binned die yields• Includes utilization and packaging yields
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
11
Binned Die – Regional Share
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10
Sha
re
Taiwan KoreaJapan ChinaUSA Europe
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
12
Leading Manufacturers of LED Die (m)
• Binned Die Production
Rank Company Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10
1 Nichia 1099 1099 1099 1099 1118 1279 1636
2 LG Group 259 261 281 373 399 619 836
3 Epistar 609 623 629 714 636 730 773
4 HUGA 326 339 351 430 467 641 749
5 Tekcore 382 382 382 397 421 535 713
6 Samsung LED 328 337 351 390 399 516 625
7 Epivalley 525 528 533 533 502 521 620
8 Seoul Opto 92 97 105 123 133 348 554
9 Forepi 369 369 369 385 392 445 487
10 Genesis Photonics 391 391 391 391 369 411 427
Others 4037 4050 4094 4211 3926 4686 5726
Total 8417 8478 8586 9046 8762 10731 13148
Die (m)
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
13
Taiwan LED Revenues (TWD)
• Taiwan LED m/m revenues down in Oct/Sept. 2010 due to LED (LCD) TV inventories
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Janu
ary
Febru
ary
Mar
chApr
ilM
ayJu
ne July
Augus
t
Septe
mbe
r
Octobe
r
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
TW
D (
m)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2009
2010
2009 Growth
2010 Growth
Source: Company Reports
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
LED Demand
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
15
Demand Model
• Demand Sources– Backlights
• LCD TVs• Notebooks• Monitors• Small/Medium Displays
– Camera Flashes– Illumination Products
• Residential• Commercial• Industrial• Outdoor
– Automotive/Display/Others
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
16
Small/Medium Display Demand
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pan
els
(m)/
LE
D (
m)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Gro
wth
Panel Shipments
LED Shipments
Shipment Growth
LED Growth
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
17
Large Area Displays
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pan
els
(m)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
LE
Ds
(m)
Notebook Monitors
CRT LCD (CCFL)
LCD (LED) PDP
Other LED
Source: YMR/IMS
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
18
LED Backlit L/A Panels & LED GrowthL/A LED Displays
L/A LED Display Growth
LED Growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pan
els
(m)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Gro
wth
Source: YMR/IMS
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
19
Converting from Traditional to SSL2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Output (lm) 80 88 97 106 117 129Power (W) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Electrical Efficiency 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%Thermal Efficiency 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%Optical Efficiency 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%LED Degradation 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%Luminaire Efficiency 69% 71% 73% 76% 78% 81%Cost per LED $1.50 $1.35 $1.22 $1.09 $0.98 $0.89
Source: YMR
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
Incandescent CFL Fluorescent HID
Pri
ce D
iffe
ren
tial
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
20
Lighting Shipments(m) by Application
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Outdoor
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Outdoor
Industrial
Commercial
ResidentialLuminaires Lamp
s
Source: YMR
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21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Incandescent CFL
Fluorescent High Intensity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Incandescent CFL
Fluorescent High Intensity
Lighting Shipment Share by Technology
Luminaires Lamps
Source: YMR
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22
Conversion from Traditional to SSL
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoor
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoor
Luminaires (m)
Lamps (m)
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
23
LED Shipments (m) and Share
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential CommercialIndustrial Outdoors
Shipments (m)
Share
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
24
LED/Traditional Lamp – Annual Shipments
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Trad. Lamps SSL LampsSSL Share
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
25
LED Demand – Automotive/Signals/Other
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Other
Signals/Automotive
Growth
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
LED Supply/Demand
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
27
LED Demand and Growth
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LE
D D
eman
d (
m)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Gro
wth
OtherLightingSmall/Medium BacklightsLarge Area LCD BacklightGrowth
Source: YMR/IMS
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
28
LED Supply/Demand
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bin
ne
d D
ie (
M)
Binned Die (m) Supply
Binned Die (m) Demand @105%
Die Glut (m) @105% of demand
Supply Fixed at 2010 Levels
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
29
Reactor Demand Forecast
128
1447 1457 1482
299
691774
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rea
cto
rs
Base
3 per. Mov. Avg. (Base)
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
Forecast Deviations
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31
CNT Based Backlight ReplacementReplacement Characteristics• Catalyst -- metallic
nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix
• Thin– .5 mm glass– <1 mm spacers
• Eliminates – color filter• Provides local dimming• Redundant Emitters• Progressive scan capability• No gate requirement• Cost issues using HFCVD
equipment, potential for printing
• High Voltage Anode (~10-15 kV)
• High LuminanceForecast
Penetration 5% 10% 15%TVs 195 225 250CNT 10 23 38LEDs (m) 4875 10125 15188
Source: YMR/Motorola
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
32
AMOLED TVs
• Samsung (SMD) expected to announce 8th Gen Fab dedicated to OLED TVs– Timeframe – 2012-2013 installation– 18 40” panels/substrate– Target Capacity
• Year 1 -- 30k substrates/month• Year 2 -- 60k substrates/month• Year 3 -- 90k substrates/month
– LG Display, AUO, Panasonic, Chinese likely to follow
• Forecast (40” panels/year) OLED 2013 2014 2015
Fab 1 1593 8295 13704
Fab 2 1593 8295
Fab 3 8295
Total (000) 1593 9888 30293
LEDs (m) 797 4449 12269
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
33
OLED Lighting• Current Status
– >15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including• Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R• Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R• Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent• Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based• Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab• Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent• Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab• LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent• ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R• NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent
– Target Size Substrate• 2nd Gen 2010• 4th Gen 2012
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
34
OLED Lighting
Primary Market• Currently, OLED lighting
is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting.
• Future – 3 to 5 years away– Fluorescent
Luminaire Replacements
– Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles
– Compete with LEDs
Source: Osram Opto
Source: Lumiotec
Source: Acuity Brands
Source: General ElectricSource: Lumiotec
Source: Philips
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
35
OLED Lighting
• Assumptions– Production Capacity
– Performance
– LED/OLED Replacement
2013 2014 2015250x250 mm 16 16 16Substrates (000) 360 720 1080Utilization 70% 80% 85%Yields 50% 75% 85%Production (m) 2 7 12
730x920
sq. m cd/m2 lumens Lm/W W $/klm10" 0.063 3000 589 100 5.9 25512" 0.093 4000 1167 110 10.6 17114" 0.126 5000 1986 120 16.6 126
LEDs 2013 2014 2015per Luminaire 26 23 20Luminaires (m) 9 9 11Lamps (m) 126 327 666Total (m) 135 336 677Total LEDs (m) 3522 7730 13535OLED Share (m) 7 34 102Total LEDs (m) 176 773 2030OLED Fabs 4 5 9
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
36
Impact of CNT & OLEDs on MOCVD Installs
Plan Deviation
Difference % Change
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rea
cto
rs
-200%
-150%
-100%
-50%
Ch
ang
e
Source: YMR
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
Questions [email protected] Produces:
Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand Report Available from IMS Research
Quarterly Model for Solid State Lighting (SSL) Adoption
LED Material Report (under construction)
OLED Lighting & Display Report (under construction)