Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman. Campaigns and Voting Behavior...

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman.

Campaigns and Voting Behavior

Chapter 9

Edwards, Wattenberg, and LineberryGovernment in America: People, Politics, and Policy

Brief Tenth Edition


The Nomination Game

Nomination– The official endorsement of a candidate

for office by a political party – Generally, success requires momentum,

money, and media attention.

Campaign Strategy– The master game plan candidates lay

out to guide their electoral campaign


The Nomination Game

Deciding to Run– Campaigns are more physically and

emotionally taxing than ever.– American campaigns are much longer.

• Barack Obama made clear his intention to run for president in January 2007.

• Other countries have short campaigns, generally less than two months.


The Nomination Game

Competing for Delegates– Nomination game is an elimination contest– Goal is to win a majority of delegates’

support at the national party convention, or the supreme power within each of the parties• The convention meets every four years to

nominate the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates

• Conventions are but a formality today


The Nomination Game

Competing for Delegates– The Caucus Road

• Caucus: meetings of state party leaders for selecting delegates to the national convention

• Organized like a pyramid from local precincts to the state’s convention

• A handful of states use a caucus—open to all voters who are registered with a party

• The Iowa caucus is first and most important.


The Nomination Game

Competing for Delegates– The Primary Road

• Primary: elections in which voters in a state vote for a nominee (or delegates pledged to the nominee)

– Began at turn of 20th Century by progressive reformers– McGovern-Fraser Commission led to selection of

delegates through primary elections– Most delegates are chosen through primaries.– Superdelegates: democratic leaders who automatically

get a delegate slot• Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold

primaries early to capitalize on media attention. New Hampshire is first.

• Generally, primaries serve as elimination contests.


The Nomination Game

Competing for Delegates– Evaluating the Primary and Caucus

System• Disproportionate attention to early ones• Prominent politicians do not run.• Money plays too big a role.• Participation in primaries and caucuses is low

and unrepresentative; 20 percent vote in primaries

• The system gives too much power to the media.


The Nomination Game


The Nomination Game

The Convention Send-Off– National conventions once provided great

drama, but now are a formality, which means less TV time.

– Significant rallying point for parties– Key note speaker on first day of Convention– Party platform: statement of a party’s goals

and policies for next four years• Debated on the second day of the Convention

– Formal nomination of president and vice president candidates on third and fourth days


The Campaign Game

The High-Tech Media Campaign– Direct mail used to generate support

and money for the candidate– Get media attention through ad budget

and “free” coverage– Emphasis on “marketing” a candidate– News stories focus more on the “horse

race” than substantive policy issues


The Campaign Game

Organizing the Campaign– Get a campaign manager– Get a fund-raiser and campaign counsel– Hire media and campaign consultants– Assemble staff and plan logistics– Get research staff, policy advisors, and

pollsters– Get a good press secretary– Establish a website


Money and Campaigning

The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms– Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)

• Created the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections

• Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund• Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries

– Matching funds: Contributions of up to $250 are matched for candidates who meet conditions, such as limiting spending

• Provided full public financing for major party candidates in the general election

• Required full disclosure and limited contributions



The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms– Soft Money: political contributions (not subject

to contribution limits) earmarked for party-building expenses or generic party advertising

– The McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned soft money, increased amount of individual contributions, and limited “issue ads.”

– 527s: independent groups that seek to influence political process but are not subject to contribution restricts because they do not directly seek election of particular candidates



The Proliferation of PACs– Political Action Committees (PACs): created by

law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and other interest groups to donate money to campaigns; PACs are registered with and monitored by the FEC.

– As of 2006 there were 4,217 PACs.– PACs contributed over $372.1 million to

congressional candidates in 2006.– PACs donate to candidates who support their

issue.– PACs do not “buy” candidates, but give to

candidates who support them in the first place.



Are Campaigns Too Expensive?– Fundraising takes a lot of time.– Incumbents do worse when they spend

more money because they need to spend to defeat quality challengers.

– The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more.”


The Impact of Campaigns

Campaigns have three effects on voters:– Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion

Several factors weaken campaigns’ impact on voters:– Selective perception: pay most attention to

things we agree with– Party identification still influence voting

behavior– Incumbents begin with sizeable advantage


Whether to Vote: A Citizen’sFirst Choice

Suffrage: the legal right to vote– Extended to African Americans by the

Fifteenth Amendment– Extended to Women by the Nineteenth

Amendment– Extended to people over 18 years of age

by the Twenty-Sixth Amendment


Whether to Vote: A Citizen’sFirst Choice

U.S. has low voter turnout– Downs: it is rational to not vote

• Those who see clear differences between parties are likely to vote.

• If indifferent, then one may rationally abstain from voting.

– Political Efficacy: the belief that one’s political participation really matters

– Civic Duty: the belief that in order to support democratic government, a citizen should always vote


Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

From Government in America, 14th edition


Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s

First ChoiceRegistering To Vote– Voter Registration: a system adopted by

the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day

– Registration procedures differ by state.– Motor Voter Act: passed in 1993,

requires states to permit people to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license


Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s

First ChoiceWho Votes?– Education: More education = more likely

to vote. Most important factor– Age: Older = more likely to vote– Race: Caucasian = more likely to vote.

BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education

– Gender: Female = more likely to vote



Who Votes? – Marital Status: Married = more likely to

vote– Union Membership: Union member =

more likely to vote– Traits are cumulative - possessing

several adds up


How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’

DecisionsMandate Theory of Elections– The idea that the winning candidate has

a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics

– Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.



DecisionsParty Identification– People still generally vote for a party

they agree with.– With the rise of candidate-centered

politics, parties’ hold on voters declined in the 1960s and 1970s.

– Many more voters make an individual voting decision and are up for grabs each election (so-called “floating voters.”)


How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions



DecisionsCandidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates– Candidates want a good visual image.

• Especially on dimensions of integrity, reliability, and competence

– Personality plays a role in vote choice, especially if a candidate is perceived to be incompetent or dishonest.



DecisionsPolicy Voting– Basing your vote choice on issue preferences

and where the candidates stand on policy issues

– Policy voting may occur if: • Voters know where they and the candidates stand on

issues and see differences between candidates.

– Unlikely to occur because:• Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.• Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not issues.

– Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries, increasing chances for policy voting.



2004: The Ratification of a Polarizing Presidency– George W. Bush became the fourth

Republican since McKinley to win a second term.

– The intensity of the election was in part due to the controversy of the 2000 election.

– The 2004 campaign was characterized by negative campaigning.

– Leadership of the War on Terrorism and “moral values” proved to be key issues.


The Last Battle: The Electoral College

Electoral college actually elects the president—founders wanted him chosen by the elite of the countryStates choose the electorsWinner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to more populated states


The Last Battle: The Electoral College

How it works today:– Each state has as many votes as it does

Representatives and Senators.– Winner of popular vote typically gets all the

Electoral College votes for that state– Electors meet in December; votes are reported

by the vice president in January– If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the

House of Representatives votes for president, with each state casting one vote.


Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior

Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?– Campaigns are open to almost

everyone.– Campaigns consume much time and

money.– Campaigns promote individualism in

American politics.



Do Elections Affect Public Policy?– The greater the policy differences

between candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policy by their choices.

– Unlikely—candidates do not always clarify issues



Do Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government?– Candidates make numerous

promises, especially to state and local interests.

– Hard for politicians to promise to cut size of government


Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior

Elections and the Scope of Government– Elections generally support government

policies and power.– Voters feel they are sending a message

to government to accomplish something– Thus, the government expands to fill the

needs of the voters.


Summary

Campaigns are media-oriented and expensive, but are not likely to change minds.Money and contributions from PACs regulated by the FEC are essential to campaigns. Voters make two basic decisions at election time: whether to vote and for whom to vote.Party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy positions drive vote choice.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman. Campaigns and Voting Behavior...

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Transcript of Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman. Campaigns and Voting Behavior...