Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies 14W-1 Financial Investment Applications Risk The Security...

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Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies 14W-1 Financial Investment Applicatio ns Risk The Securi ty Market Line Last Word Key Terms End Show 14 Financial Economics WEB

Transcript of Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies 14W-1 Financial Investment Applications Risk The Security...

Page 1: Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies 14W-1 Financial Investment Applications Risk The Security Market Line Last Word Key Terms End Show 14 Financial.

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14Financial Economics

WEB

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Chapter Objectives• The Idea of Present Value

and Why it is Critical in Making Financial Decisions

• About the Most Popular Investments: Stocks, Bonds, and Mutual Funds

• How Investment Returns Compensate for Being Patient and for Bearing Risk

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Chapter Objectives• About Portfolio Diversification

and Why It Implies that Investors Can Focus on Nondiversifiable Risk When Evaluating an Investment Opportunity

• Why Higher Levels of Nondiversifiable Risk Are Associated With Higher Rates of Return

• Why Even Professionals Have a Hard Time Trying to “Beat the Market”

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Financial Investment• Economic Investment• Financial Investment• Present Value

–Compound Interest–The Present Value Model

Dollars Today = X Dollars in t YearsX

( 1 + i)t

W 14W.1

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Applications• Take the Money and Run• Salary Caps and Deferred

Compensation• Some Popular Investments

–Stocks–Bankrupt–Limited Liability Rule–Capital Gains–Dividends

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Applications• Bonds

– Default• Mutual Fund

– Portfolio– Index Funds– Actively Managed Funds– Passively Managed Funds

• Calculating Investment Returns– Percentage Rate of Return

• Asset Prices and Rates of Return

• Arbitrage

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Risk• Diversification• Diversifiable Risk• Nondiversifiable Risk• Comparing Risky

Investments• Average Expected Rate of

Return• Probability Weighted

Average• Beta

–Market Portfolio

O 14W.1

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Risk• Relationship of Risk

and Average Expected Rates of Return

• The Risk-Free Rate of Return

• Time Preference• Risk-Free Interest

Rate• Risk Premium

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RiskGLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Investment Risks Across Different Countries

NorwayLuxembourgSwitzerland

JapanChile

United StatesChina

MexicoIndia

GhanaIndonesia

NigeriaSomalia

ZimbabweIraq

0 20 40 60 80 100

Source: International Country Risk Guide

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The Security Market LineAverage Expected

Rate of Return=

Rate That Compensates

For Time Preference

+Rate That

CompensatesFor Risk

Security MarketLineMarket

Portfolio

Risk-FreeInterest Rate, if

AverageExpectedRate ofReturn

Risk Level (beta)0 1.0

CompensationFor Time-PreferenceEquals if

Risk Premium forThe Market Portfolio’sRisk Level of beta=1.0

A Risk-free Asset(i.e., a short-term U.S.Government bond)

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The Security Market Line

Security MarketLine

if

AverageExpectedRate ofReturn

Risk Level (beta)0 X

CompensationFor Time-PreferenceEquals if

Risk Premium forThis Asset’s RiskLevel of beta = X

Risk Levels Determine Average Expected Rates of Return

Y

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The Security Market Line

Security MarketLine

AverageExpectedRate ofReturn

Risk Level (beta)0 X

Arbitrage and the Security Market

Y

A

B

C

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The Security Market Line

SML 1

AverageExpectedRate ofReturn

Risk Level (beta)0 X

An Increase in the Risk-Free Rate

Y2

A Before Increase

A After Increase

SML 2

Y1

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Why Do Index Funds Beat Actively Managed Funds

• Choice of Actively or Passively Managed Mutual Funds

• After Costs, Index Funds Outperform Actively Managed by 1% Per Year

• Management Costs Are Significant

• Index Funds May Pay More But Actively Managed Offer a More Exciting Opportunity to “Play” in the Market

Last

Word

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Key Terms• economic investment• financial investment• compound interest• present value• stocks• bankrupt• limited liability rule• capital gains• dividends• bonds• default• mutual funds• portfolios• index funds• actively managed fund

s• passively managed fu

nds

• percentage rate of return

• arbitrage• risk• diversification• diversifiable risk• nondiversifiable risk• average expected rate

of return• probability weighted av

erage• beta• market portfolio• time preference• risk-free interest rate• Security Market Line• risk premium

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Extending the Analysis Of Aggregate Supply