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1 Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles? 05/22/06 WORKING DRAFT Name???

Transcript of Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 Are shotguns and...

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1

Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Are shotguns and muzzleloaders

less risky than centerfire rifles?

05/22/06

WORKING DRAFT

Name???

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2Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The Current Task

Task AGrounding

Phase IStart Work

Task ERFI

Task BBase Map

Compilation

Task CAnalyze Incidents

Task DDevelop Method

Phase IReview

Phase IIGO/NO-GO

Phase IIProposal

GO

EndProject

NO-GO

Phase IReport

Phase IIStart Work

Phase IITasks

Phase I Phase II

Extent of Current Activity

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The Current Task

• Current Phase I Focus– “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?” (Tasks A, B, C-)

• Future Phase I Focus– Develop a capability that provides a risk analysis for PA on the use of rifles versus shotguns and muzzleloading firearms– Make recommendations of alternative actions to improve hunting safety in populated area (Tasks C+, D, and E)

• Future Phase II– Provide information and recommendations to consider on whether “Special Regulations Areas” should be expanded in

Pennsylvania

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Timeline

• Will only proceed with Task D and E and Phase II with your permission

Today

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PGC Regulations

Arms & AmmunitionGeneral Statewide Seasons: 1) Manually operated centerfire rifles,handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball, or a bullet designedto expand on impact; 2) muzzleloading long guns 44-caliberor larger; and 3) long, recurve, compound or crossbows withbroadheads of cutting-edge design. Buckshot is illegal, except inSoutheast Special Regulations Area.

Archery  Seasons: Long, recurve and compound bows withbroadheads of cutting-edge design. Crossbows permitted for deerin WMUs 2B, 5C and 5D. Persons hunting deer in the archeryseasons may not possess a firearm of any type.

Flintlock Muzzleloader Season: Flintlock ignition, single-barrellong gun, 44-caliber or larger, using single projectile ammunition.Iron, open .V. or notch sights only. Fiber optic inserts permitted.Crossbows permitted, but users must have a muzzleloader stamp.

October Antlerless Muzzleloader Season: Any muzzleloader longgun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger.Scope sights permitted. Crossbows permitted, but users must havea muzzleloader stamp.

Special Regulations Areas: (All of Allegheny County in westernPennsylvania and all of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomeryand Philadelphia counties in the southeast): Muzzleloading longguns 44-caliber or larger, bows and arrows, manual or autoloadingshotguns .410 or larger using slugs and 20-gauge or larger usingbuckshot. Buckshot may not be used in Allegheny County. Onlybows and arrows are permitted in Philadelphia County. Crossbowswith a draw weight of at least 125 pounds, but not more than 200pounds may be used during the regular firearms deer seasons, includingthe antlerless deer season Dec. 26-Jan. 14, in WMU 2B &and Dec. 12-23 & Dec. 26-Jan. 28 in WMUs 5C & 5D

centerfire rifles,handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball

muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber

Any muzzleloader longgun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger

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Approach and Limitations

• Only deer-related incidents• Used representative high-end systems

– .30-06, 150 grain soft point projectile, muzzle velocity approximately 2910 fps

–  Manual or autoloading shotgun, 12 gauge sabot .50 caliber 385 grain HP semi-spitzer, muzzle velocity approximately 1900 fps

–  Muzzleloading long gun (Example CVA Kodiak .50 Caliber 209 Magnum Rifle) .50 caliber, 348 gr. CVA PowerBelt Bullet, 90 gr. Hodgdon Triple Seven FFFG, muzzle velocity approximately 1595 fps

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Incident Data, 1997 – 2005+

• Street, City• County Name• Township• Zip Code• Incident Date• Rural/Urban (Description)• Type of Property Damaged• Property (Description)• Firearm Type (Description)• Projectile• Population Density (Description)

Grounding in the Facts

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Limitations Incident Data

• Not exact location of the incident• Vehicle locations are of owner• Some missing data• Some fields are estimates• Sample size

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Incidents

• 464 Incidents• 98 Not Used (Non-deer hunting, etc)• 366 Incidents Used in County Level Analysis

– No rifle incidents in Special Regulations Areas– 19% in Special Regulations Areas– 79% in rural areas– 75% are residential structures– 65% in population density less that 200 people/sq mile

• 313 Address Matches (85%)

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Non-Address Match Incidents

Legend

CountiesNon-Address Matches

0

1.

2

2 - 4

4 - 6

Special Regulations Areas

Elk

York

Tioga

Erie

Potter

Centre

Berks

Butler

Bradford

Lycoming Pike

Bedford

Clinton

Warren

Clearfield

McKean

Blair

Crawford

Indiana

Somerset

Luzerne

Wayne

Fayette

Perry Bucks

Lancaster

Mercer

FranklinChester

Clarion

Schuylkill

Monroe

Greene

Venango

Allegheny

Adams

Washington

Westmoreland

Forest

Beaver

Sullivan

Union

Snyder

HuntingtonCambria

Jefferson

Mifflin

Fulton

Dauphin

Armstrong

Susquehanna

Juniata

Carbon

Lehigh

Columbia

Cumberland

WyomingCameron

Lebanon

Montgomery

Lawrence

Lackawanna

NorthumberlandNorthampton

Delaware

Montour

Philadelphia

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Incidents

Legend

Counties

Total Incidents (366 Incidents)

0 - 2

3 - 5

6 - 9

10 - 16

17 - 23

Incidents

Firearm Type (313 Incidents)

Muzzleloader

Pistol

Rifle

Shotgun

Unknown

Special Regulations Areas

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Legend

Deer Harvest

97-04

165 - 1972

1973 - 3758

3759 - 5669

5670 - 7984

7985 - 9969

Incidents

Firearm Type

Muzzleloader

Pistol

Rifle

Shotgun

Unknown

Special_Regulations_Areas_Dissolve

Deer Harvest

• Harvests are estimates• 2005 estimates not available

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Legend

CountiesCounties

IncidentsFirearm Type

Muzzleloader

Pistol

Rifle

Shotgun

Unknown

Special Regulations Areas

2nd Order Hot Spots

1st Order Hot Spots

Hotspot Analysis

Note: Hotspot analysis was performed using a program called CrimeStat I, developed for the National Institute of Justice

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• 2nd Order Hotspots in: – Adams, York, and Cumberland Counties– Chester*, Montgomery*, Berks, Bucks*,

Lehigh, and Northampton Counties (* Special Regulations Area)

Hotspot Analysis

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Legend

Risk

Incidents/Deer Harvest

0.000000 - 0.439920

0.439921 - 1.098770

1.098771 - 2.064850

2.064851 - 4.125249

4.125250 - 8.577337

Incidents

Firearm Type

Muzzleloader

Pistol

Rifle

Shotgun

Unknown

Special Regulations Areas

Rate Map of Incidents vs. Deer Harvest

Reference: Smoothing & Excess Risk Algorithms Used in GeoDa: Anselin, L., Y. W. Kim and I. Syabri. Web-Based Analytical Tools for the Exploration of Spatial Data Journal of Geographical Systems (forthcoming). For more details on EB smoother, also see Bailey-Gatrell (1995) (pp. 303-308).

Compares the actual county incident rate to the predicted incident rate that would be observed in the county

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Legend

Risk

Incidents/Population

0.000000 - 0.481598

0.481599 - 1.123726

1.123727 - 1.868351

1.868352 - 3.734348

3.734349 - 8.056151

Incidents

Firearm Type

Muzzleloader

Pistol

Rifle

Shotgun

Unknown

Special Regulations Areas

Rate Map of Incidents vs. Population

Need to carefully consider how to define risk:– Incidents vs. Deer Harvest– Incidents vs. Population

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Site Visits

_̂_̂

York

Adams

Franklin

Cumberland

Legend

Counties

Visited

_̂ 1

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Address Matching

• The address does not represent the actual location of the structure

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| 763 | | | COLEMAN | RD | | 17325

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| 431 | S | | YORK | RD | | 17019

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| 260 | W | | BARRENS VALLEY | RD | | 17019

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| 331 | | | FRANKLIN CHURCH | RD | | 17019

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| 323 | | | BERMUDIAN CREEK | RD | | 17316

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| 2 | | | TWO CHURCHES | RD | | 17316

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| 355 | | | ROCK VALLEY | RD | | 17304

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| 687 | | | QUAKER CHURCH | RD | | 17372

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| 101 | | | HUNTERSTOWN HAMPTON | RD | | 17325

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Preliminary Analysis of the Facts

• 366 incidents is minimal for an analysis • There are hot spots of incidents inside and outside Special

Regulations Areas • Need to define risk• An analysis of incidents within a smaller geographic unit is

desirable to reduce the spatial variation of factors across counties

• Improving data is desirable– Using and X-Y coordinate to locate incidents– Strike forensics– Estimated values (deer harvest)

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Ballistics as Represented in the 1998 Report

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30

Physics: Ballistic Analysis on the Risk of Rifles versus Shotguns and Muzzleloaders

Aeroballistics Division, AETC

Picatinny Arsenal, NJ

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31

Representative Ammunition

Rifle: 30-06 Springfield (7.62mmx63mm) soft point Mass = 150 grains, MV = 2910 fps

Shotgun: 12 gauge sabot .50 caliber HP semi-spitzer Mass = 385 grains, MV = 1900 fps

Muzzleloader: .50 caliber CVA Powerbelt Mass = 348 grains, MV = 1595 fps

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32

Approach

Comparison of flight ballistics to examine two areas Initial Impact Distance Subsequent Ricochet Distance

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33

Initial Conditions For the shotgun and muzzleloader ammunition,

drag curves for the complete Mach number flight regime were generated using Aerodynamic prediction codes

Shooter and target height was set at 3 feet Firing elevations were varied for a set of conditions

Firing Elevation simulated (degrees)

Firing Condition Feet Above a Standing Deer at a Range of 100

Yards

35 (max range) Errant shot 210 ft

10 High error in aiming 53 ft

5 Moderate error in aiming 26 ft

~0 Aiming at target 0 ft

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34

Ricochet Distance Once initial trajectories are computed, ricochet

trajectories are simulated based on established ricochet databases from comparable military ammunitions

Trajectory Plots are provided with both initial and maximum ricochet distances

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35

Ricochet Example

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36

Trajectories for 35° Firing ElevationRifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis

35 Degree Firing Distance

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Distance (feet)

Alt

itu

de

(fee

t)

RF - .30-06 150 grains

SG - .50 cal 385 grains

ML - .50 Cal 348 grains

No ricochets after impact

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37

Maximum Ranges

No Ricochet

Firing Elevation at 35 degrees

Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)

Ricochet Distance (ft)

DifferenceDistance (ft)

% Less than Rifle

Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 13926 13926 0 Initial Ricochet

Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 10378 10378 0 25% 25%

Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 9197 9197 0 34% 34%

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38

Trajectories for 10° Firing ElevationRifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis

10 Degree Firing Elevation Distance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000

Distance (feet)

Alt

itu

de

(fee

t)

RF - .30-06 150 grains

SG - .50 cal 385 grains

ML - .50 Cal 348 grains

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39

10o Elevation with Ricochet

BandThickness is Ricochet

Firing Elevation at 10 degrees

Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)

Ricochet Distance (ft)

DifferenceDistance (ft)

% Less than Rifle

Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 10004 10706 702 Initial Ricochet

Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 7163 8112 949 28% 24%

Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 6247 7160 913 38% 33%

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40

Trajectories for 5° Firing Elevation

Rifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis 5 Degree Firing Elevation Distance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Distance (feet)

Alt

itu

de

(fee

t)

RF - .30-06 150 grains

SG - .50 cal 385 grains

ML - .50 Cal 348 grains

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41

5o Elevation with Ricochet

BandThickness is Ricochet

Firing Elevation at 5 degrees

Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)

Ricochet Distance (ft)

DifferenceDistance (ft)

% Less than Rifle

Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 7504 8743 1239 Initial Ricochet

Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 5118 6865 1747 32% 21%

Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 4367 6010 1643 42% 31%

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42

Trajectories for 0° Firing ElevationRifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis

0 Degree Firing Elevation Distance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500

Distance (feet)

Alt

itu

de

(fee

t)

RF - .30-06 150 grains

SG - .50 cal 385 grains

ML - .50 Cal 348 grains

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43

0o Elevation with Ricochet

Band Thickness is the Ricochet

Firing Elevation at ~0 degrees

Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)

Ricochet Distance (ft)

DifferenceDistance (ft)

% Less than Rifle

Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 1408 4835 3427 Initial Ricochet

Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 840 5205 4365 40% -8%

Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 686 4498 3812 51% 7%

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44

Findings Initial impact distance differences between rifle

and shotgun (muzzleloader) become greater with decreasing firing elevation

However, ricochet distance differences between rifle and shotgun (muzzleloader) become less with decreasing firing elevation

Ricochet distance is a more realistic gauge for comparing overall range safety

Moderate (5o) to high (10o) aiming error distance comparisons provide appropriate levels for qualifying risk

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45

Findings (cont’d) Although shotguns and muzzleloaders still

produce shorter impact distances versus rifles, the differences are between 20 to 25 percent less than rifle

In terms of area, the differences are between 40 to 50 percent

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Finding

• “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?”– Yes, but…

• the margin of safety is much less than previously assumed

• reducing ricochets is essential when using shotguns as a safety management tool

1998 2006

Max Range Max Range10 Degreesw/ Ricochet

5 Degreesw/ Ricochet

0 Degreesw/ Ricochet

Rifle (.30-06) 24454 ac 13986 ac 8266 ac 5512 ac 847 ac

Shotgun (12 ga.) 1030 ac 7767 ac 4745 ac 3398 ac 1373 ac

Difference 23424 ac 6219 ac 3520 ac 2113 ac -527 ac

1998 2006

Max Range Max Range10 DegreesNo Ricochet

5 DegreesNo Ricochet

0 DegreesNo Ricochet

Rifle (.30-06) 24454 ac 13986 ac 7217 ac 4061 ac 1408 ac

Shotgun (12 ga.) 1030 ac 7767 ac 3700 ac 5118 ac 840 ac

Difference 23424 ac 6219 ac 3517 ac 2172 ac 92 ac

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Recommendations

• Based on this analysis, complete the Request for Information (RFI) to identify new technologies that will improve deer hunting safety

• Perform ballistics analysis with the results from the RFI

• Apply geographic analysis using the appropriate HR61 factors with new ballistics and technology to determine where to use safety management tool

• Make suggestions to improve incident data collection for the 2006 season

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Closing Thought

“if it is indeed true that the non-hunting public holds the unfounded perception that the 12 gauge rifled shotgun/rifle is safer than center fire rifles using expanding spitzer bullets, then it behooves the Commission to educate this non-shooting population.”

John C. HomsherStrausburg, PA September 10, 1997