Powerpoint Information:Dr. Barry Nocks

Clemson UniversityCenter for Community Growth & Change

Oconee County Courthouse, Walhalla, SC

Ram Cat Alley, Seneca, SC

Mobile Home, Walhalla, SC

Development Entry, Clemson, SC

• Today:– 1.22 Million People

• 62.2% Urban

– 527,274 Housing Units• 67.3% Single Family

• 2025:– 1.56 Million People*

• 340,000 more people, or 28% growth rate

• 54.8% of growth in Greenville and Spartanburg Counties

– 659,412 Housing Units

*according to SC Budget & Control Board

Additional Needs for 2025:

6.75 million square feet (or 155 acres) 67 (100,000 s.f.)

neighborhood strip centers, or

5.5 Haywood Malls

Source: Clemson University Center for Real Estate Development

Haywood Mall Vicinity - Haywood Mall Vicinity - GreenvilleGreenville

Additional Needs for 2025 (continued)

6.1 million square feet (or 140 acres) 6 (40-story) office buildings at 1 million square feet

each, or 2x the amount of office space currently in downtown

Greenville

Downtown GreenvilleDowntown Greenville

Additional Needs

for 2025: 27.1 million square

feet (or 622 acres) 11-12 new BMW

plants Equivalent in size to

135 Wal-Mart Supercenters (averaging 200,000 sf)

BMW Manufacturing Plant – BMW Manufacturing Plant – GreerGreer

Oconee County Commerce Oconee County Commerce CenterCenter

Additional Needs for 2025:

7,111 Hotel Rooms = 71 new hotels (assuming average of 100 rooms per hotel)

Poinsett Hotel - GreenvillePoinsett Hotel - Greenville

Holiday Inn Express - AndersonHoliday Inn Express - Anderson

Economic diversification Jobs – growth in numbers and quality

Tax base – support of quality services

Cultural growth & diversityWe seek to maintain quality of life while encouraging growth

Greenville-Spartanburg is 5th most sprawling area

(Considering factors such as: miles driven, traffic delays, air pollution, proximity of homes to jobs/ schools, population density)

Sprawl Rankings

1. Riverside-San Bernardino (LA), CA

2. Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, NC

3. Raleigh-Durham, NC

4. Atlanta, GA

5. Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Growth by Decade

997,666

1,312,474

1,763,626

2,233,324

2,959,950

4,112,198

588,170702,383

840,347971,391

1,162,093

1,499,293

484,215 546,319 615,491743,284 830,563

962,441

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Decade

Po

pu

lati

on

Atlanta, GA MSA Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA Greenville--Spartanburg--Anderson, SC MSA

> 800

400 - 800

200 - 400

100 - 200

0 - 100

Virginia Study (D. Ware, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998)

*1999 population estimates by CACI International, Inc. based on 1990 US Census

Population Density Along the I-85 Corridor

# people per square mile

Development Impacts

Land Use Transportation Infrastructure Parks and Open Space Education Public Safety

Direct costs of serving new residents

Based on population projections from the SC Office of Research and Statistics

The Upstate is projected to grow by almost 30% by 2025 and by another 30% by 2050

This will have a significant impact on the transportation infrastructure in the Upstate, with unknown effect of gas supply and mass transit

Construction of new infrastructure as well as improving existing highways will be a challenge

Meeting EPA pollution standards will be a challenge with growth

Total Statewide Transportation needs through 2022 identified at $56.87 billion

Road related needs: $47.57 billion

Upstate needs at 30% of total:

$14.27 billion

Source: SCDOT Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2002

Parks & Recreation

Recreation Center- Anderson, SC

• Parks provide refuge from the chaos of daily life– Passive and active recreation– Trails, athletic facilities, play

structures, pools, sport courts, and wildlife areas

– Reduction of urban heat islands– Public gathering space– Leisure and community facilities

• With the projected increase of 338,538 people by 2025, demand for parks and recreational space is sure to increase

• Only active parks included here

Projected costs are rough estimates –

Actual costs depend on topography, amenities, site improvements, land acquisition, construction, and selected materials

Estimates are an average of construction costs for recently constructed comparable parks

Park Amenities Are Expensive!!

Example: Play Structure = $35,000Source: City of Greenville Park and Recreation Dept.

Abbeville County- $1.8 Million (18 acres)

2 Mini Parks-$213,000 (2 acres) 2 Neighborhood Parks-$602,000 (8 acres) 0.4 Community Parks-$984,000 (8 acres)

Anderson County-$17.7 Million (166 acres)

18 Mini Parks-$2.1 Million (18 acres) 15 Neighborhood Parks-$5.9 Million (74 acres) 4 Community Parks-$9.7 Million (74 acres)

Greenville County-$57.4 Million (536 acres)

60 Mini Parks-$6.8 Million (60 acres) 48 Neighborhood Parks- $19.2 Million (238 acres) 12 Community Parks-$31.4 Million (238 acres)

Pickens County- $20.9 Million (195 acres)

22 Mini Parks-$2.5 Million (22 acres) 17 Neighborhood Parks-$6.9 Million (87 acres) 4 Community Parks-$11.5 Million (87 acres)

Walhalla Soccer Field

Impacts on Selected Counties

1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Current Facilities

Primary ElementaryMiddle School

High School

Career & Technical Private Total

Abbeville 0 5 5 3 1 1 15

Anderson 0 26 10 7 0 13 56

Cherokee 0 11 4 2 1 3 21

Greenville 2 50 18 14 4 43 131

Greenwood 0 12 5 4 0 4 25

Laurens 0 11 6 2 0 4 23

Oconee 0 11 5 4 1 4 25

Pickens 0 15 5 4 1 14 39

Spartanburg 1 40 16 10 0 13 80

Union 0 6 3 3 0 1 13

Total 3 187 77 53 8 100 428Source: SC Department of Education

 

Estimated Additional Needs Through 2025

Additional Students1

Additional Square Footage1

Additional Classrooms2

Additional Teachers3

K - 5 33,446 3,010,140 1,394 1,520

Middle School 13,859 1,663,080 577 693

High School 13,128 1,969,200 547 691

Total 60,433 6,642,420 2,518 2,904

1Assumes that the current distribution of population across age groups will remain consistent to 2025.290 ft2/K-5 Student, 120 ft2/Middle Student, 150 ft2/High (Source: Edwards, Mary. 2003. “Community Guide to Development Impact Analysis.” University of Wisconsin) 324 students/K-5 Classroom, 25/Middle, 26/High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)41 teacher/22 K-5 students, 1/20 Middle, 1/19 High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)

Comparisons

Additional Elementary School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 30 additional Clemson Elementary Schools (46 classrooms), or 68 additional Walhalla Elementary Schools (approx. 500 students)

Clemson Elementary

Comparisons

Additional Middle School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 15 Additional Greer Middle Schools (921 students), or 22 Additional Brewer Middle Schools (618 students)

Brewer Middle School, Greenwood

Comparisons

Additional High School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 8 Additional Easley High Schools (68 classrooms); or 12 Additional Greenville High Schools (46 classrooms)

Easley High School

Additional Teachers

Future growth in the Upstate by 2025 is estimated to generate a need for nearly 3,000 additional teachers at estimated additional annual salary costs of nearly $199 million1

1Costs adjusted to 2025 dollars

Construction Costs

Future growth in the Upstate is estimated to generate a need for $735– $919 Million1 in new or expanded facilities construction by 2025, not including replacements to existing facilities

Walhalla High School and Football Field1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

We can learn from other experiences, particularly from areas that are similar in scale and political outlook

We do have choices—not to act is an invitation to continued movement to Charlotte and Atlanta