Coping with Complexity in Command and Control · Coping with Complexity in Command and Control...
Transcript of Coping with Complexity in Command and Control · Coping with Complexity in Command and Control...
• Effective Command and Control (C2) is key to operations
• C2 has to operate in a increasingly complex environment:- War amongst the people.- Fog of war.- Communication technology.
• C2 system support human to solve “Wicked and Messy” problems:- Improve sense-making through effective HMI.- HMI need to support cognitive and social capabilities of humans.
• Cognitive System Engineering address cognitive and social aspects:- Cognitive Work Analysis.- Cynefin Framework.
Introduction
• Command and Control Defined• Complexity Defined• Command and Control as a Complex System• Cognitive system Engineering• Coping with Complexity in Command and Control• Conclusion
SCOPE
• Definition:- Problem solving within a military context to provide focus and
convergence of effort.- Assess environment and decide on course of action.
• Purpose- Bring all available information and all available assets to bear on an
objective
• Requirements- Vision of outcome- Understand high level intent and priorities- Assessment of environment- (Re-) Evaluation of situation
Command and Control
Behaviour
Command and Control Model
Command Control Sense-Making Execution Effects
Situation and InformationCollection and Processing
(Alberts 2006)
Environment
Socio-technical System
Hardware
Process People
Software
Tools, Equipment and Facilities
System
C2 System
Effector
Sensor
CognitiveSupport System
HMI
DecisionSupportSystem
Sense-MakingSystem
IssueOrders
SituationAssessment
CommsSystem
CommsSystem
Complex Environment
Delay
Operator
The Famous OODA LoopDerive
Knowledge
Make DecisionsExecute
Sense & Process
Observe Orient
DecideAct
Common Situation Picture
Commander’s Intent
Situation Awareness
Battlespace Actions
Dynamic OODA LoopMission
Complete
Effect
Mission
Sense-Making Planning
Command Concept
Information Collection
MilitaryActivity
Decision/Order
(Brehmer, 2005)
Dynamic OODA LoopMission
Complete
Effect
Mission
Sense-Making Planning
Command Concept
Information Collection
MilitaryActivity
Decision/Order
Observe
Decide
Act
Orient
(Brehmer, 2005)
Situation Awareness
• “Perception of elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, comprehension of their meaning and projection of their status into the near future” – Endsley.
• Situation Awareness exist in the mind of the operator.
• HMI is the interface between the operator and C2 system.
• Prerequisite for Decision Making.
• Require a careful analysis on what is required for Decision Making.
Situation Awareness
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System CapabilityInterface Design
Stress and WorkloadComplexityAutomation
Performance of ActionsDecision
(Endsley, 2001)
Situation Awareness
Projectionof Future
StatusLevel 3
Comprehensionof CurrentSituation
Level 2
Perception of Elements in
Current SituationLevel 1
Goals & ObjectivesPreconditionsExpectations
AbilitiesExperience
Training
AutomaticityLong Term Memory Stores
Information Processing Mechanisms
Situation AwarenessSystem CapabilityInterface Design
Stress and WorkloadComplexityAutomation
Performance of ActionsDecision
(Endsley, 2001)
Situation Awareness
Projectionof Future
StatusLevel 3
Comprehensionof CurrentSituation
Level 2
Perception of Elements in
Current SituationLevel 1
Goals & ObjectivesPreconditionsExpectations
AbilitiesExperience
Training
AutomaticityLong Term Memory Stores
Information Processing Mechanisms
Sense Making & Decision Making
• C2 require decisions on adapting to changing environment.
• Complexity requires intuition and judgement from cognitive abilities and past experience.
• Align presentation of information with operator mental models.
• HMI of C2 system support sense-making.
• Identify when decisions are required.
Complexity
• Definition:- “a whole made up of complicated or interrelated parts”- “braided or entwined together”
• Complex System consist of many interconnected nonlinear elements that cause unpredictable behaviour.
• Behaviour is nondeterministic,despite apparent order.
• Display emergent behaviour
• Modelling help to understand.
Complexity
• Systems where people play a major part tends to be complex.
• Cognitive work is dynamic and context dependant in sociotechnical system.
• Systems need to support assimilationof information in uncertainty.
• Complexity science providetools and concepts.
• The Cynefin Framework (Snowden)assist in making sense ofcomplex situations.
Cynefin Framework
Pattern ManagementPerspective FiltersComplex Adaptive
Systems
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Analytical / ReductionistScenario PlanningSystems Thinking
Stability Focussed Intervention
Enactment ToolsCrises Management
Legitimate Best PracticeStandard Operating
ProceduresProcess Re-Engineering
Disorder
(Snowden)
Cynefin Framework
Pattern ManagementPerspective FiltersComplex Adaptive
Systems
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Analytical / ReductionistScenario PlanningSystems Thinking
Stability Focussed Intervention
Enactment ToolsCrises Management
Legitimate Best PracticeStandard Operating
ProceduresProcess Re-Engineering
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
(Snowden)
C2 as a Complex System
• Combat is complex (Sun Tzu & Clausewitz).
• C2 is a complex system:- Large problem space.- Social interaction with heterogeneous perspectives.- Distributed cognition and decision making.- Mediated interaction and dynamic decision-making.- Hazards and disturbances.
• C2 have to make sense of complex situations and manage risks.
• C2 is a sociotechnical system.
C2 as a Complex System
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
Observe
Orient Decide
Act
C2 as a Complex System
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
Start
Execute
Up to WW I
C2 as a Complex System
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
Start
Execute
Plan
WW II
C2 as a Complex System
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
Start
Execute
Plan
Analyse
Modern War
C2 as a Complex System
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex Knowable
KnownChaos
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
Start Execute
Plan
Analyse
MonitorModern War
Cognitive System Engineering
• Classic System Engineering:- Focus more on technical aspect.- Automate to reduce human error.- Lead to failures in complex and unforeseen situations.
• Humans are central to complex systems.
• C2 requires Decision Support Systems to assist sense-making and problem solving:- Display information, not raw data.- Provide ease of control.- Complement cognitive capability.- Support operators to cope with and adapt to unfamiliar situations.- Indicate when decisions need to be taken.
Cognitive System Engineering
• Apply Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to develop “cognitive affordances” to support sense-making and decision-making.- Support analysis, design and evaluation of complex sociotechnical
systems.- Define required information and application context.- Define “ecological” HMI for effective man - machine operation.
• Support direct perception and manipulation.
• Support creativity and innovation in unanticipated events.
• Capture the knowledge and processes of experts to support novices though the system and HMI.
Cognitive System Engineering
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Work Domain Analysis
Work Organisation Analysis
Purpose, Values, Functions & Resources
Social Transactions
Cognitive HMI Requirements
Cognitive Transformations Strategies & Competencies
Applied Cognitive Task Analysis
Critical Decisions, Decision Requirements
CollaborationCoordinationTransactions
Work StrategiesCognitive ProcessesCognitive StatesCognitive Competencies
Knowledge AuditsExpertiseDifficulties
Task DiagramsProcesses
Work SituationsWork Tasks
Cognitive System Engineering
Probe - Sense - Respond
Complex - Orient Knowable - Decide
Known - ActChaos - Observe
Act - Sense - Respond
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Sense - Categorise -Respond
Disorder
Skill BasedDetect Patterns
Complex Adaptive systemsMaking Sense
Knowledge BasedPerform AnalysisSystems Thinking
Planning
ExperienceTake action to trigger
patternCrises Management
Rule BasedFollow SOPs
Execute plan and Orders
© CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za
Cognitive System EngineeringWork Domain
Analysis
Work Organisation Analysis
Purpose, Values, Functions & Resources
Social Transactions
Cognitive HMI Requirements
Applied Cognitive Task Analysis
Critical Decisions, Decision Requirements
CollaborationCoordinationTransactions
Work StrategiesCognitive ProcessesCognitive StatesCognitive Competencies
Task DiagramsProcesses
Work SituationsWork Tasks
Cynefin Framework
Knowledge AuditsExpertiseDifficulties
Cognitive Transformations Strategies & Competencies
Conclusion
• Conducting military operations in modern and complex environment is difficult.
• C2 systems need to support commanders solve increasingly complex and dynamic problems.
• Be flexible to adapt to changes in environment and context.• Focus on Situation Awareness, Sense-making and Decision-
making.• Support human cognitive and social abilities in C2 system
design (HMI).• Apply CWA enhanced with Cynefin diagram to design, develop
and evaluate C2 systems.