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Transcript of COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional...
COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
www.clim-atic.orgwww.clim-atic.orgA Project part-financed by the European Union and the
European Regional Development Fund
Clive BowmanClim-ATIC project
coordinator
UHI Science Day Pickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008
www.live-the-solution.com
Causes of climate change
* IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the * IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years”observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years”
*
Fossil fuels used in transport
Domestic activities
Industry and manufacturing
Land management
Land use change Land use change and Forestry and Forestry emissions 8%emissions 8%
Energy 37%Energy 37%
Public Public 2%2%
Residential 11%Residential 11%
Agricultural Agricultural 12%12%
Business 12%Business 12%Transport 17%Transport 17%
Scottish Green House Gas Emissions
Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of GHGs in 2003Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007 - 2013: Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report
Waste 1%Waste 1%
“Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover.”
“Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40 years is already determined by past and present emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself for the inevitable impacts.”
SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
Its already happening!
And its going to get worse!
average spring, summer and winter temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since 1961
Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
UK top 10 warmest years
Year
(°C) Difference from average with respect to 1971-2000
1998 +0.52
2005 +0.48
2003 +0.46
2002 +0.46
2004 +0.43
2006 +0.42
2007 (Jan-Nov) +0.41
2001 +0.40
1997 +0.36
1995 +0.28
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007 2007
Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with:• an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and west;• an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country.
Some parts of north-west Scotland have become up to 45% drier in summer
Changes in winter river flows at selected locationsSEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
high winter flow frequencieson western source rivers have increasedover the past two decades
Profile A1 A2 B1 B2
Population growth
low high low medium
GDP growth very high medium high medium
Energy use very high high low medium
Land- use changes
low medium/high high medium
Resource availability
medium low low medium
Pace of technological change
rapid slow medium medium
Change favouring
F fossil
T non fossil
B balanced
regional efficiency & dematerialization
“dynamics as usual”
Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines
A2 B1 B2
The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario
CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios
Global mean annual temperature changes relative to 1980 – 1999 (ºC) for IPCC scenarios
5.85.85.25.2
www.live-the-solution.com
Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100
Aspect Implications
Water resource
More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties
Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply
Biodiversity Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season
Higher temperatures less favourable for native species
High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat & Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish spawning
Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations)
Marine Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat & more frequent and coastal flooding affecting 93,000 properties
Loss of traditional commercial fishery
Land surface Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport links
Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further climate change
Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion
Changes to agricultural practice and crops (e.g. longer growing season)
Human health Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs
Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress
Fewer cold-related deaths
Water quality Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs
Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies
Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality
Air quality Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future
An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover
Likely that the frequency of wintertime air quality pollution events will reduce
Weather The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events.
Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
www.live-the-solution.com
Communities are on the front line!
How can they adapt?
The Clim-ATIC project2.35 Million Euro
Understanding climate change adaptation at a
community level for northern regions
European Regional Development Fund’s Northern Periphery Programme 2007 - 2013.
www.clim-atic.orgwww.clim-atic.orgA Project part-financed by the European Union and
the European Regional Development Fund
5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC
Glen Urquhart and the Cairngorms National Park
Flora, Sogn og Fjordane
County of Vasterbotten, and Åre
Rovaniemi, Kittilä and Kolari, Lapland
UummannaqUummannaq
IllulissatIllulissat
SisimiutSisimiut
IcelandIceland
Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands
Adaptation to Climate change impactsanticipatory or reactive?
The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes.
Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business, government or community.
Having the ability to adapt is called ‘adaptive capacity’ and this is increased through:
1. knowledge2. experience 3. resources
Diagram adapted from Finland’s National Adaptation Strategy (2005)
Socio-economic development
Changes in natural systems
Climate Change
Impacts
Advantages Disadvantages
Adaptive capacity
Opportunities Threats
Mitigation Adaptation
Decision making
Build community capacity through knowledge with communities
Rovaniemi Ilulissat Ilulissat Cairngorms National
Park
Flora Sogn og Fjordane
Lycksele Glen Urquhart
Culture and
traditions
Flooding
Tourism
Snow
activities
Fishing
Tourism
Sustainable
transport
Sustainable
energy
managemen
t
Natural
heritage
Land use
managemen
t
Agriculture
Tourism
Biodiversity
Risk
managemen
t
Sea level
rise
Health
Energy
managemen
t
Business
developmen
t
County Plan
for Climate
and Energy
Tourism
Reindeer
herding
Forestry
Agriculture
Transportati
on
Energy
systems
Snow cover
Flooding
Land use
managemen
t
Sustainable
flood risk
managemen
t
Agriculture
New
developmen
t
Tourism
Currentclimate
CommunityVulnerability
Scenarios
Currentsociety
Futureclimatechange
scenarios
Futuresocial
change scenarios
climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge
Knowledge sources
Climate change impact visualisations
Community / stakeholder brainstorming meetings
Community adaptationaction plans
Knowledge communication and use
Building adaptation knowledge with communities
11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park
Forest owners in Sweden
Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland
Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart
Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden
Building community capacity through experience
sustainable transport
tourism opportunities
sustainable energy management
risk management and response
Finland New tourism opportunities
GIS flood mapping for development planning
Greenland Dog sledging on thin ice!
Climate change tourism and sustainable huts
Fish waste to Bio-gas
Norway Impacts on energy supply infrastructure
Land slides and public warning system
Scotland Trial of EV for community use
Tourism opportunities and ski area adaptation
Wood fuel cooperative – local business and suppliers
River restoration project - sustainable flood management
Sweden Winter tourism and sustainable transport project - partnership of ski industry and LA
Woodland owners management plans
Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland
Adaptation demonstration projects
Mapping the tourism products of Northern Finland
Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland
Climate change tourism and sustainable accommodation huts in Greenland in Greenland
Risk and response management in Norway
Tourism destination management in Scotland
GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland
River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart
Trial of EV for community use
The Clim-ATIC project
www.clim-atic.org
www.clim-atic.orgwww.clim-atic.orgA Project part-financed by the European Union and the
European Regional Development Fund