Cook Inlet Natural Gas Reserves Study
Transcript of Cook Inlet Natural Gas Reserves Study
Cook Inlet Natural Gas Reserves Study
Islin Munisteri, EITJohn Burdick, Jack Hartz PE
State of Alaska, Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and GasDecember 10, 2015
Society of Petroleum Engineers / Alaska Geological Society / Geophysical Society of Alaska Joint Meeting
Overview
• Geological Setting of Cook Inlet• Historical Trends• Assumptions
– Decline analysis– Material balance
• Discussion
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Cook Inlet Basin• Coal-sourced biogenic gas in
Sterling, Beluga, and Tyonek
• Thermogenic oil from Jurassic source in Hemlock and lower Tyonek Formations
• Most large structures have been drilled
• Smaller structural traps and perhaps numerous stratigraphic traps remain to be discovered
• Inaccessible lands
• Map shows base of Tertiary structure
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Shellenbaum and others, 2010 (DNR)
A’
A
5
Middle Jurassic Tuxedni source rocks at oil window maturity
A’A
Bacterial gas from coals
Cook Inlet Petroleum Systems
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Lewis River Unit
Stump Lake UnitIvan River Unit
Otter UnitPretty Creek Unit/ Gas Storage
Beluga River Unit
North Cook Inlet Unit
Lone Creek Unit
Three Mile Creek
Moquawkie Unit
Nicolai Creek Unit
Kitchen Lights Unit
Granite Point Unit
McArthur River
West McArthurRiver Unit
Redoubt Unit
MiddleGroundShoal
Birch Hill Unit
Swanson River Unit / Kenai Gas Storage 1,3
Beaver CreekUnit
Wolf Lake
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West Fork Field
Sterling Unit
Cannery Loop/CINGSA
Kenai Unit / Pool 6 Storage
Kasilof Unit
Ninilchik Unit
Deep Creek Unit
Nikolaevsk Unit
North ForkUnit
Petroleum Resources Management System
11PRMS resources classifications, as adapted from SPE et al., 2011.
Petroleum Resources Management System
12PRMS resources classifications, as adapted from SPE et al., 2011.
Breakdown of Reserves for Cook Inlet Study
• Proved Reserves (1P) = Well-Level Decline Curve Analysis for Gas + Pool-Level Decline Curve Analysis for Associated Gas
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Petroleum Resources Management System
14PRMS resources classifications, as adapted from SPE et al., 2011.
Breakdown of Reserves for Cook Inlet Study
• Probable Reserves =Upside Well Level Decline Curve Analysis for Gas+ Material Balance
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Petroleum Resources Management System
16PRMS resources classifications, as adapted from SPE et al., 2011.
Breakdown of Reserves for Cook Inlet Study
• Proved Reserves (1P) = Well-Level Declines for Gas + Pool-Level Decline for Associated Gas
• Probable Reserves =Upside Well Level Declines for Gas + Material Balance
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+
= 2P (Proved + Probable) Reserves
Decline Curve Analysis (Exponential)
• Decline = [ ln (Qi / Q) ] / t• Remaining Reserves as of 9/30/2015 onwards =
[ ( Qi – Qf ) / Decline ] *f
• T = time, months• Decline = nominal decline, gas rate / month• Qi = initial gas rate, mcfd• Qf = final gas rate = 50 mcfd
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Decline = [ ln (Qi / Q) ] / t= [ln (2000 mcfd/900 mcfd) / 4.3 years= 0.185/year
RR = [ ( Qi – Qf ) / Decline ] *f= [900 mcfd – 50 mcfd)/0.185] *365= 1,677,027 mcf= 1.6 bcf
CUM = 5.3 bcf
EUR = CUM + RR= 5.3 + 1.6= 6.9 bcf
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2P Reserves
ProbableReserves
8308
681
30
711
101
371472
1183
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9600
CumulativeProduced
Base CaseDecline Analysis
(Gas Pools)
Associated Gas(Oil Pools)
Total Proved(1P) (MaintainExisting Wells)
Upside CaseDecline Analysis(Mitigate Well
Problems)
Material Balance(Add
Compressionetc.)
Total Probable(Additional
Investment)
Total Proved +Probable
Remaining (2P)
Gas
Pro
duce
d an
d R
emai
ning
, BC
F
Remaining Reserves in the Cook Inlet Basin
1P 2P
1PProved
Reserves
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Nor
th C
ook
Inle
t
Belu
ga R
iver
Kena
i
Nin
ilchi
k
McA
rthu
r Ri
ver
Trad
ing
Bay
Nor
th F
ork
Kena
i C.L
.U.
Kena
i Loo
p
Beav
er C
reek
Mid
dle
Gro
und
Shoa
l
Swan
son
Riv
er
Gra
nite
Poi
nt
Lew
is R
iver
Lone
Cre
ek
Ivan
Riv
er
Pret
ty C
reek
Stum
p La
ke
Dee
p Cr
eek
Moq
uaw
kie
Nic
olai
Cre
ek
Ster
ling
Kasi
lof
Red
oubt
Sho
al
Wes
t Fo
rk
Wes
t Fo
rela
nd
Wol
f La
ke
Thre
e M
ile C
reek
Nik
olae
vsk
Wes
t M
cArt
hur
Rive
r
Kust
atan
Albe
rt K
aloa
Han
sen
Birc
h H
ill
Rem
aini
ng R
eser
ves,
BC
F
Remaining Reserves - All Cook Inlet Fields
Base Case Decline Analysis Upside Case Decline Analysis Material Balance Associated Gas
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
McA
rthu
r Ri
ver
Trad
ing
Bay
Nor
th F
ork
Kena
i C.L
.U.
Kena
i Loo
pBe
aver
Cre
ekM
iddl
e G
roun
d Sh
oal
Swan
son
Riv
erG
rani
te P
oint
Lew
is R
iver
Lone
Cre
ekIv
an R
iver
Pret
ty C
reek
Stum
p La
keD
eep
Cree
kM
oqua
wki
eN
icol
ai C
reek
Ster
ling
Kasi
lof
Red
oubt
Sho
alW
est
Fork
Wes
t Fo
rela
ndW
olf
Lake
Thre
e M
ile C
reek
Nik
olae
vsk
Wes
t M
cArt
hur
Rive
rKu
stat
anAl
bert
Kal
oaH
anse
nBi
rch
Hill
Rem
aini
ng R
eser
ves,
BC
F
Remaining Reserves - Cook Inlet Fields < 100 BCF Reserves
Base Case Decline Analysis Upside Case Decline Analysis Material Balance Associated Gas
30
2P Reserves
ProbableReserves
8308
681
30
711
101
371472
1183
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9600
CumulativeProduced
Base CaseDecline Analysis
(Gas Pools)
Associated Gas(Oil Pools)
Total Proved(1P) (MaintainExisting Wells)
Upside CaseDecline Analysis(Mitigate Well
Problems)
Material Balance(Add
Compressionetc.)
Total Probable(Additional
Investment)
Total Proved +Probable
Remaining (2P)
Gas
Pro
duce
d an
d R
emai
ning
, BC
F
Remaining Reserves in the Cook Inlet Basin
1P 2P
1PProved
Reserves
Thank you!
• John Burdick• Jack Hartz (retired)• Paul Decker• Laura Gregersen• Becca Hulme• Family
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