Australian Academy of Science, Australian Academy of Science, CanberraCanberra

4 November 20094 November 2009 www.triplehelix.com.auwww.triplehelix.com.au

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Outline

1. Context

2. Imperatives

3. Knowledge needs

4. Implications for science and

policy

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1. CONTEXT• Climate

• Water

• Energy

• Soil & land

• Food

• Human health & animal welfare

• Natural Resource Management

Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical School 2008

Population & carbon emissions

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Water

• Every calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average*

• Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already over-committed

* IWMI 2007

Perth’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005)

Melbourne’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1913-2007)

In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept.

Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.

Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling

Basin

Energy & nutrients

• The era of abundant, cheap fossil fuels is coming to a close

• Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agri-chemicals, transport and food

Australia

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World

• World demand is currently 83-87 million barrels per day, around 31 billion barrels per year

• World oil demand is/was expected to grow by 50% by 2025

• 90% of all transport uses oil, be it land, sea or air

• 95% of all goods in shops involve use of oil

• 95% of all food products require oil

YET….

• Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and oil production is in decline, with 4 barrels consumed for every 1 discovered

• 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak point

• The average post-peak production rate of decline is 6.7% per year

Oil dependence and decline

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Oil production decline (2)• Between 2005 and 2008, conventional oil production ceased to grow, despite

massive investment, increasing demand and prices. This is unprecedented.

• The ratio of units of energy in/energy out (EROI) from oil is decreasing. In the USA, EROI has shrunk from about 100:1 in the 1930s to 14:1 today.

• EROI of tar sands production vary between 10:1 (optimistic) and 2:1

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that:

• By 2015, the gap between supply and demand will be 7m barrels per day (7.7% of projected world demand, 60% of China’s demand, and 39% of USA)

• Oil production from existing fields will drop by almost 50% from 2008-2020

• The world needs new production six times that of Saudi Arabia today to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030.

The IEA has a history of over-estimating oil reserves and production

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Oil production decline (3)

“The risks presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by the research and policy communities.”

UK Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production,

August 2009

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“we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day”

Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, 3 August 2009

15Source: Heads in the Sand — Governments ignore the oil supply crisis and threaten the climate.

Global Witness, October 2009.

Global food demandASSUMPTIONS

• Continued growth in per capita food consumption in developing countries to equal developed countries (3330kcal/day) by 2050

• Diversion of land & water etc for biofuels grows to 15% by 2050

• No food wastage prior to 1920, increasing to current levels of 30%, then flat (i.e. no reduction in food waste in future)

NOTE: a Petacal is 1015 calories

an Exacal is 1018 calories16

Source: Dr Megan Clark (CSIRO) Presentation to the Science & Technology in Society Forum

Japan, 6 October 2009

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Feeding the world• The world needs to almost double food production

(FAO estimates 70% increase) by 2050, & improve distribution

• We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land– and to a lesser extent better varieties, more fertiliser etc– in aggregate — much less successful in terms of

distribution

• Climate change is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients

• Concern among rich consumers about modern industrial food systems– human health, animal welfare, environment, fair trade

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But maybe we ain’t seen nothin yet….

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Land & soil• The FAO recently assessed trends in land condition

(measured by net primary productivity) from 1981-2004

• Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent:

– >20 percent of all cultivated areas>30 percent of forests>10 percent of grasslands

• 1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded

• Land degradation is cumulative. Limited overlap between 24% of the land surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991, because NPP has flatlined near zero in flogged areas

http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html

Water, energy, and GDP

21 from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Energy & GDP

Water & GDP

Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia

Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and

water-intensity of our economy

2. IMPERATIVESPROFOUND TECHNICAL CHALLENGES:

1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions

2. To increase water productivity,decoupling the every calorie = 1 litre relationship

3. To increase energy productivity– more food energy out per unit of energy in– while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy

4. To develop more sustainable food systems– while conserving biodiversity– and improving landscape amenity, animal welfare, and

human health22

2. IMPERATIVES (cont)

PROFOUND TECHNICAL CHALLENGES:

5. To achieve all of the above simultaneously

• If you are in the water business, you are in the energy business, and if you are in the energy business, you will soon be in the carbon business

• If you are in agriculture, you’re in the food system, and if you in the food system, you are part of the health system

• Health has huge economic implications23

Climate-water-energy feedbacks

24 from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

• Saving water often uses more energy, and vice-versa

• Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water

• Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos

Murrumbidgee Irrigation - a current case

• Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA– $1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production

• 100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised• Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption

– And hence greenhouse gas emissions

• Options:– Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste– Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C price-dependent)– Conversion to biodiesel– Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting

• Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon company– Liberating potential opportunities through a more integrated approach

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3. KNOWLEDGE

From a public policy perspective, there are three main reasons to invest in knowledge:

1.To help us make better decisions & policy

2.To underpin the innovation process

3.So that we can learn as we go along— in the words of Peter Cullen:“at least we should be making new mistakes”

The Cynefin knowledge framework*

•Climate change spans all of these domains

•If temp increase > 2ºC, then disorder & chaos will reign

•The challenge is to handle the necessary range of simultaneous responses

– to work in all of these domains at once

– to develop a system-wide perspective

– & the knowledge systems and learning strategies to underpin that perspective

* David Snowden & Mary Boone (2007) “Leader's Framework for Decision Making” Harvard Business Review27

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Observations on the current situation• Community concern exceeds political will

• Knowledge at all levels is patchy– “De Nile ain’t just a river in Egypt…” (Mark Twain)

• The overall NRM/Ag/Food/Climate knowledge system lacks cohesion– Alternative technologies/approaches struggle for funds– Cross-system learning is poor– Especially across climate-carbon-water-energy-food system

boundaries

• Climate chaos/water/energy literacy is far too low

– in the wider community– in the bureaucracy– in corporate boardrooms & management

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We need a third agricultural revolution

— what might it look like?• Closed loop farming systems (water, energy, nutrients,

carbon)

• Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain

• Farming systems producing renewable bioenergy

• Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance

• Understanding & use of soil microbial activity (&GM)

• Urban food production (roofs, open space etc), recycling waste streams & urban water and nutrients

• Detailed product specification (e.g. Tesco)

• ‘Carbon plus’ offsets and incentives

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Learning from the Vikings— biomass energy

• Finland: same area and population as Victoria, tougher climate, shorter growing season, slower growth rates

• Private forestry thinnings etc produce 23% of Finland’s primary energy, over 75% of thermal energy needs, and 20% of Finland’s electricity

• In Sweden it is 20% with a target of 40%

• Foran et al suggest woody biomass energy can

fuel Australia

• WA already has a pilot plant using mallees

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4. IMPLICATIONS FOR SCIENCE & POLICY

• Consideration of whole landscapes is more crucial than ever

• We need tools that can handle the convergence of water, energy, carbon, food and health

– how these interactions play out in rural landscapes– and regional economies

• Make sure the portfolio is well weighted

– From ‘modify’ and ‘adapt’ to ‘innovate’ and ‘create’

• Be pluralistic in disciplines and methodologies

• Pay attention to the whole knowledge system– For decisions, for innovation, and for long term learning

• Seek to engage and work with community science– Invest in understanding the knowledge need

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Policy - putting it all together

• “Joined-up Government” has to be more than a slogan

• New alliances, platforms, networks are needed

• Climate chaos is both a row and a column

• Planning for water, energy, carbon, waste, transport, fires, health, food and demographics needs integration

• This requires a solid and extensive evidence base in the ‘known’, ‘knowable’ and ‘complex’ domains

• Chaotic domains demand good adaptive tools – e.g. real-time monitoring, environmental literacy, scenarios– resilience attributes (flexibility, redundancy, buffering etc)

– And, above all, top people, well-trained and resourced

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Dis-integrated, myopic policy

some examples• Water projects with huge energy implications

• Risk of carbon plantations competing for water & arable land

• Building the Education Revolution ($16B) not mandating renewable energy

• Drought policy rewarding poor land management & poor bank lending

• Declining real investment in agricultural/food system R&D

• Woeful investment in second generation biofuels & biomass energy R&D

• Building roads as if oil will last forever (e.g. 20% of Perth’s area)

• An apparent political ‘race to the bottom’ to offset carbon price rises and reward big polluters

• Gross under-investment in public transport

• “Food-insensitive” urban design

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Perspectives from the top of the APS (1)

Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July

2009:

Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:

“ By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational

thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity….

The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and

agencies… We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers. ”http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm

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Perspectives from the top of the APS (2)

Dr Ken Henry, QUT Business Leaders’ Forum, 22 October 2009:Long run forces affecting the Australian economy:

(i) Ageing population (and 60% population increase to 35m by 2049); (ii) climate change adaptation & mitigation; (iii) the ICT revolution; and (iv) the re-emergence of China and India

“ How will Sydney cope with a 54 per cent increase in its population, Melbourne a 74 per cent increase and

Brisbane a 106 per cent increase? Surely not by continuing to expand their geographic footprints at the

same rate as in the past several decades. Surely not by loading more cars and trucks onto road networks

that can’t cope with today’s traffic….

Are Australia’s natural resource endowments, including water, capable of sustaining a population of 35

million? What are the implications for environmental amenity of this sort of population growth? Must it

mean an even greater loss of biodiversity…?

http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=008&ContentID=1643

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Perspectives from the top of the APS (3)

Dr Ken Henry, QUT Business Leaders’ Forum, 22 October

2009:“…with a population of 22 million people, we haven’t managed to find accommodation with our

environment. Our record has been poor and in my view we are not well placed to deal effectively with the environmental challenges posed by a population of 35 million.

…substantial additional investment, in both private and public infrastructure, economic and social, will be required to support our larger human population. … quite sophisticated infrastructure planning is going to be required if we are to address these questions in a way that improves the wellbeing of the Australian people in a sustainable way.

…the imposition of a price signal to reflect the negative externalities of greenhouse gas emissions is intended to cause a significant shift in the structure of the Australian and global economies over coming decades; quite possibly the largest structural adjustment in economic history. That is the point of doing it. ”

http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=008&ContentID=1643

Food Policy - time for new alliances &

perspectives• Healthy farms, healthy

landscapes, healthy food, healthy people & healthy communities are interconnected

• We are not used to seeing the farming system, the energy system or the water system, or urban design for that matter, as connected to the health system

• This needs to changeSource: Tyrchniewicz and McDonald (2007)

The human dimension

• Managing whole landscapes- landscapes: “where nature meets culture” (Simon

Schama)

- landscapes are socially constructed

- beyond ‘ecological apartheid’

- sustainability means people management- engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour- build knowledge grounded in a sense of place

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A Prime Ministerial Mandate

Kevin Rudd, Westminster Abbey, 31 March 2009:

suggesting that the free market needs a moral compass:

“To these values of security, liberty and prosperity must also be grafted the values of equity, of sustainability and community.”

• Equity, Sustainability, Community…

• Sounds like Landcare values to me – Revisit community engagement & empowerment models– Re-commit to the integrated regional NRM model– Most adaptation knowledge will come from the community,

not from experts– web 2.0 is ideally suited here - social tools critical

An engaged community base is crucial

• Rapid, often surprising, on-going environmental change will challenge governments and industries, and stress communities.

• Many responses (proactive and reactive) will need to be worked out at regional and local levels. Successful implementation of tough decisions depends on community support.

• This requires environmentally literate and capable delivery frameworks at regional scale, involving community leaders and engaging grassroots volunteers.

• Convergence in climate, energy, water and food mandates an integrated planning & delivery framework

– Rural and urban

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7 point plan for renovating agriculture and natural resources

(Aust. J. Ag. Science 2/09)1. Rejuvenate Landcare and Re-engage the Community

2. Reinforce the Regional/Catchment Model

3. Rewire Environmental Information Systems

4. Revolutionise Agricultural Research, Extension and Education (rebrand agriculture around food, carbon, landscapes & energy)

5. Reform Drought Policy & Rural & Regional Services

6. Re-unite the Carbon, Water, Energy, Food & Health agendas

7. Redesign the Institutional Architecture (COAG etc)

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Underpinning principles• Building Resilience

• Balancing centralism and subsidiarity

• Re-engaging stakeholders and devolving responsibility

• Taking the time necessary to sort through complex, contested, connected issues

• Building, sustaining and using a comprehensive evidence base

• Investing in skills, knowledge, innovation and leadership

• Budgeting for longer term stability

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Take home messages• We are in a period of rapid environmental change

– Not all predictable, often bewildering– This is not a blip. Normal service will not be resumed

• Business as usual is not a viable trajectory– Not in business, not in policy and not in science– Radical structural changes are required– Demanding technical innovation on an economy-wide scale

• These are exciting times, in science, policy and business

• Water, energy, carbon, biodiversity, food & health– A compelling big picture agenda needs fleshing out

GO FOR IT!

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For more info

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