Convention on Long-range Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air PollutionTrans-boundary Air Pollution

Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling

37th meeting

Geneva, 22−24 February 2010

Only a technical report on:http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/tfiam

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

Workplan items 2010/2011 Workplan items 2010/2011

1. Baseline development

2. Target setting options

3. Ex-post impact analysis with WGE

4. Analysis of impacts of draft technical annexes

5. Contributions to reports on air & climate linkages

6. 2030/2050 aspirations

7. Uncertainty management/flexible mechanisms

8. Exchange of national experiences (with NIAM)

Time scheduleTime schedule

TFIAM2010

Feb: Baseline proposal

May: Analyses of targets options

Oct: Sensitivity analysis

incl. climate forcing

2011

Jan/Feb: Scenario runs

May: Final runs

Oct: Report

WGSR2010

Apr: Baseline accepted

Sept: Guidance on targets

Dec(EB): Guidance on targets

2011

April: Draft Protocol

Sept: Final Protocol

Dec(EB): Protocol adopted

Inevitable uncertainties

What will be the future climate policy? What will be the effect of the economic

crisis?

We cannot wait until the future becomes clear? What to do to start negotiations in 2010?

The baseline is a means, not a goal

EECCA - countries

No official national baselines submitted Available for baseline: IEA - WEO 2009; FAO 2003 For EECCA-countries assumptions on the

implementation of current legislation are more important than assumptions on economic projections.

Proposal: • Use conservative assumptions on CLE in the

IEA/FAO baseline• Analyse effects of additional measures

(implementation of technical annexes)

Other non-EU countries

Norway & Switzerland: only national projections 2009, including climate policy, available

Croatia: choice between PRIMES 2009 or national projection 2009

Macedonia & Turkey: PRIMES 2009

EU27

1. PRIMES 2009 for all countries, including the economic crisis, climate/energy measures & ELV-legislation 2009

2. 12 national baseline projections have been submitted

Baseline assumptions will first of all affect the costs of an abatement strategy, but can also affect the distribution of efforts.

National baselines show a large variety in assumptions on economic growth, oil- and carbon prices and domestic climate policy.

If used in the negotiations such inconsistencies would distort the distribution of policy efforts over countries!

Baseline for EU27

Further efforts to improve the available baselines would not reduce basic uncertainties in future economic developments and climate and energy policies, but only delay the revision of the Protocol.

The PRIMES 2009 baseline provides a coherent perspective comprising current legislation on air, climate and energy measures, although some countries have different expectations on future national energy and climate policies.

Still the PRIMES 2009 baseline would offer a more equal starting point for defining further measures than the national baselines.

TFIAM37 advice

Most experts agreed to use the PRIMES 2009 baseline as the basis for analysis of further policy options

In view of the uncertainties, more than one baseline is to be used

The national baseline scenario combined with PRIMES 2008 is the only available proxy for a scenario with higher growth assumptions and could be used to assess the sensitivity and attainability of emissions ceilings

Analyse further how uncertainties could be reflected in policy through flexibility mechanisms

Not only focus on 2020, but to make full use of the 2030 data provided by

PRIMES 2009 and the World Energy Outlook

So,

Does WGSR agree to proceed with the proposed baseline and use this to further assess abatement strategies?

Other notions

Several experts expressed concerns about the unavailability and lack of transparency of PRIMES data and problems in providing feedback on preliminary PRIMES results. However, it was noted that a stakeholder consultation process was organized between the PRIMES modellers

The Task Force noted that for Euro IV/V heavy duty vehicles real emissions could be higher than the current scenario assumptions. The latter were based on emission factors during the test cycle.