Control of State Governments 2008-2009- NCSL

5/26/2018 Control of State Governments 2008-2009- NCSL

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2008 State2008 State

Legislative ElectionsLegislative Elections

November 7, 2008November 7, 2008

Tim StoreyNational Conference of State Legislatures

ote

State

2008V


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State Elections 2008State Elections 2008

House Only--2

No 2008 Elections--6

Governor Election--11


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State LegislativeState Legislative

Party ControlParty ControlPrePre--Election 2008Election 2008

Democrat-23

Split-12

Nonpartisan

Republican-14


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Altered States 2008Altered States 2008

Now Democratic

Now Republican

Now Divided


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----DemocraticDemocratic

Control Since ReconstructionControl Since Reconstruction

UnUn--AlteredAltered


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State LegislaturesState Legislatures

PostPost--Election 2008Election 2008

Democrat-27

Split-8

Nonpartisan

Republican-14


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Party Control ShiftsParty Control Shifts20082008Democratic Gains

Delaware House

Nevada Senate

New York SenateOhio House

Wisconsin Assembly

Republican Gains

Montana SenateOklahoma Senate

Tennessee House

Tennessee Senate

Tied

Alaska SenateAlaska SenateUndecidedUndecided

Montana House-likely 50-50

Texas House 76 R- 74 D


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1938

Legislative Seats Held byLegislative Seats Held by

Party 1938Party 193820082008

1952

1974

1994

2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%80%

90%

100%


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Seat Changes by RegionSeat Changes by Region

2006200620082008

East +38 Democrat

Midwest +41 Democrat

South +6 Republican

West +25 Democrat


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Democratic Share of Seats in theSouth 1938 - 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1938 1958 1978 1998

94%

53.5 %


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Governor's PartyGovernor's Party


Democrat-29

Republican-21


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State GovernmentState Government


Democrat-17

Split-24

Nonpartisan

Republican-8


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CoattailsCoattails ---- Fate of White House Winner inFate of White House Winner in

Legislatures in Presidential Election YearLegislatures in Presidential Election Year

-400

-300-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1

940

1

944

1

948

1

952

1

956

1

960

1

964

1

968

1

972

1

976

1

980

1

984

1

988

1

992

1

996

2

000

2

004

2

008

Seats Gained or Lost


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Reverse CoattailsReverse Coattails


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Fate of President's Party inFate of President's Party in

Legislatures in MidLegislatures in Mid--Term ElectionsTerm Elections

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

1

942

1

950

1

958

1

966

1

974

1

982

1

990

1

998

2

006

Seats Gained or Lost


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Projected Gains/Losses AfterProjected Gains/Losses After

2010 Reapportionment2010 Reapportionment

+2

+2+1

-1

-1

-1

-1-1 -1

-1

-1-2

-1-2

+4

+1

+1

+1

+1

-1 +1


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1998

2000

2002

2004

2007

Percentage of WomenPercentage of Women

Legislators 1971 to 2009Legislators 1971 to 2009

2009


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Leadership ChangesLeadership Changes

Nearly One-Third of Leaders will be Newto the Job in January--Surprise Losses:

Delaware Speaker Terry Spence (R) Utah Speaker Greg Curtis (R) Iowa Senate President Pro Tem Jeff Danielson (D) Rhode Island Senate President Joseph

Montalbano (D).

Bipartisan Coalition Leadership in AlaskaSenate and Louisiana House

Colorado first state ever to be led by twoAfrican-American presiding officers

Senate President Peter Groff House Speaker Terrance Carroll


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Final ObservationsFinal ObservationsDemocrats made gains although they

were limited due to success in 2006.Republicans can claim some victories--

they gained some key chambers andlosses could have been worse.

Turnover will be about average andmaybe less than 20%.

Now the hard work begins.


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Thank You !Thank You !

Tim StoreyNational Conference of State Legislatures

ote

State

2008V

Control of State Governments 2008-2009- NCSL

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