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Contribution of Federal Standards Toward 6 th Plan Efficiency Goals
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Transcript of Contribution of Federal Standards Toward 6 th Plan Efficiency Goals
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Contribution of Federal Standards Toward 6th Plan
Efficiency GoalsConservation Resources
Advisory Committee MeetingJune 4, 2014
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Sixth Plan Resource PortfolioSource:http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/2010-01/
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0100020003000400050006000700080009000
NG Single Cycle
Demand Response
Simple-Cycle Gas
Combined-Cycle Gas
Renewables
Efficiency
Cum
ulat
ive
Reso
urce
(Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts)
*Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions
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Conservation Goals From 6th Plan Resource Portfolio1200 aMW Over Five Years, 5845 aMW Over 20 Years
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Retrofit Lost-Opportunity
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ual A
cqui
sitio
ns (M
Wa)
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What Counts Towards Targets?
Reported BPA, ETO, Utility & NEEA Programs Exceed Targets
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Retrofit Targets Lost-Opportunity TargetsRetrofit Achievments Lost-Opportunity Achievments
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ual A
cqui
sitio
ns (a
MW
) 780 aMW thru 2013!
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What’s The Contribution of Federal Standards?
6th Plan Conservation Goals
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Discretionary Lost-Opportunity
Annu
al A
cqui
stion
s (aM
W)
1200 aMW2010-2014
1660 aMW2015-2019
How Much Will New Federal Standards (and State Codes) Contribute Meeting 6th Plan Goals?
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Discretionary Lost-Opportunity
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ear
Acq
uisi
tions
(MW
a)
Codes and Standards PrimarilyProvide Lost-Opportunity Savings
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Residential Appliance and Equipment Savings From Five Federal Standards That Take Effect by 2015 Are Just
Under 350 Average Megawatts by 2029
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Heat Pumps
Water Heaters
Freezers
Refrigerators
Dishwasher
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
However, The Estimated Contribution of Residential Appliance and Equipment Standards Savings to Sixth Plan Conservation
Goals Is Small Over The Near Term
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Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Savings from Residential Federal Standards
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ual A
cqui
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)
1 aMW2010-2014
125 aMW2015-2019
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Commercial & Industrial Equipment Savings From Eight Federal Standards That Take Effect by 2015 Are Nearly 280
Average Megawatts by 2029
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300Distribution Transformers
PTAC/HP
CAC Water Evap Cooled
CAC Air-Cooled
Electric Motors
Walk-in Cooler and Freezers
Commercial Washer (Laundromat)
Commercial Washer (MF Common Area)Cu
mul
ative
Sav
ings
(MW
a)
Commercial and Industrial Equipment Standards Savings Are More Significant Than Residential Over The
Near Term
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Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Savings from Commercial & Industrial Standards
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ual A
cqui
stio
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MW
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38 aMW2010-2014
74 aMW2015-2019
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Lighting Standards Lighting Standards in Sixth Plan forecast
General Service Incandescent (2012) Mercury Vapor (2008)
Seven Standards since Sixth Plan (Effective Dates) General Service Fluorescent Lamps (2012)(2014) Fluorescent Ballasts (2015) Metal Halide Fixtures (2012) Halogen Reflector Lamps (2012) Candelabra Lamps (2012) Ceiling Fan Light Kits (2010) Torchieres (2010)
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Lighting Savings From Seven Federal Standards That Take Effect by 2015 Are Over 155 Average Megawatts by 2029
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Torchieres
Ceiling Fan Kits
Candelabra Standard
Halogen Reflector Standard
Metal Halide Standard
GSFL Standard
Fluorescent Ballast Standard
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Federal Lighting Standards Have the Greatest Near-Term Impact(Because Lighting Equipment Has a Short-Lifespan)
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Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Savings from Federal Lighting Standards
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cqui
stio
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62 aMW2010-2014
65 aMW2010-2014
Federal Standards Are Estimated to Save Just Over 100 aMW by 2014 and 265 aMW between 2015-2019
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Lost-Opportunity Savings GoalSavings from Residential Federal StandardsSavings from Commercial & Industrial Standards
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cqui
stio
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MW
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102 aMW2010-2014
265 aMW2010-2014
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Total Savings Forecast from Federal Standards Add Up to 780 Average Megawatts by 2029
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0100200300400500600700800900
Residential Appliances & EquipmentCommercial & Industrial EquipmentLighting Equipment
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
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Federal Standards Adopted The Since Sixth Plan Capture One Quarter of The Twenty-Year Lost-Opportunity
Potential
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Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Lighting EquipmentCommercial & Industrial Equipment Residential Appliances & Equipment
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ulati
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gs (M
Wa)
How Much Will New Federal Contribute Meeting 6th Plan Goals?
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300595100
265Lost-Opportunity Sav-ings From Standards
Remaining Lost-Opportunity Sav-ings Goal
Discretionary5 –Y
ear
Acq
uisi
tions
(MW
a)
Regional Retrofit and Lost Opportunity Savings Goals, Net of Standards
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81 107 125 138 152
Retrofit Targets Lost-Opportunity Targets, Net of Standards Savings from Standards
Annu
al S
avin
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Wa)
Some Caveats Estimates Subject to Further Review
Workbooks to be posted for review Overlap of State Codes & Fed Standards
Non-Res Lighting & HVAC Equipment Need to tease apart to avoid double count
Interaction between Codes & Standards Hours of operation for lighting (WA code)
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Next Up: Update Progress Towards 6P Targets
Adjust utility-reported savings to 6P baseline Remove early-retirement savings from reports Unit counts or consumption adjustments
Identify incremental non-program savings Non-Residential lighting Residential clothes washers & heat-pumps Others where data exist
Account for overlap & interaction
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