Contrasts across Britain and Ireland. Wet/showery and ...€¦ · Wet/showery and cloudy in Ireland...

The Long Range Forecasters

2015 JUNE 30d ahead Forecast Britain & Ireland Produced under Solar Lunar Action Technique SLAT 12a – Summary - Detailed weather periods - Maps – Graphs Including Solar-based likely corrections to apply to Short-range Standard Meteorology Forecasts

WeatherAction are the only Long Range forecasters with independently proven published skill (Refs via Forecasts on Home page) WeatherAction LR forecasts are NOT substitutes for Short Range but to inform weather sensitive decisions weeks & months ahead

Br+Ir 100d ahead - WHOLE SUMMER NOW on line=> www.WeatherAction.com

Confidential 2015 JUNE 30d (8 weather periods) Brit & Ire SLAT (Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) 12a forecast. Update of 40d ahead of 21May; Prod 31 MAY 2015.

© Weather Action Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

JUNE 2015 6 pages inc maps & graphs.

Contrasts across Britain and Ireland. Wet/showery and cloudy in Ireland and West. East & Scotland finer. Some warm / very warm spells as well as cold northerly blasts. Overall Britain/Ireland wetter and cooler than normal. Close application of

SLAT 12a advances has shifted overall rain & temps more to wet and cool. Frequent attacks from Atlantic Lows but these are largely blocked by higher

pressure to East and Scandinavia (espec N Scandinavia). Potentially notably wet / windy thundery / higher tornado risk:

9-11 (R5 esp north), 19-24 (R3 19-21; R4 22-24, largely blocked by High to east). Wild-Jet-Stream - Mini-Ice-Age circulation in Europe and world. Jet Stream shows strong

meridional flow – with long stretches, meanders and blocks. These patterns & extremes are caused & predicted by solar-lunar effects. Standard meteorology cannot explains or predict in Long-Range these unusual circulation patterns and weather extremes.

Map details in 8 weather periods p 2-4. Graphs p5. Overall Rain, Temp & Sun p6 Weather warnings and corrections to short range standard meteorology Standard short range meteorology TV forecasts will underestimate rain, snow, thunder/tornado risk, cyclogenesis risk and wind levels in WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique (SLAT) R5 & R4 ‘Top Red’ extra activity periods. In/around such periods standard Met forecasts from 12/24hrs ahead of precip need to be typically ~doubled esp R5). These factors & modifications which improve on TV forecasts are independent of details of pressure patterns, verified or not, for these times. Forecast users may warn others.

Late May Cold - New Forecast Advance

Jet stream shift on cue of NEW Slat 12a – Page 2 GREAT VIDS by Piers Corbyn

1. Electric Universe Conf Presentation http://bit.ly/1nJecee 29k hits 2. Co2Con Nailed http://bit.ly/QS0k34 21k hits

© Weather Action™& Piers Corbyn™ © accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or on web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement.

2015 JUNE 30d (8 weather periods) Brit & Ire SLAT (Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) 12a forecast.

Update of 40d ahead of 21May; Prod 31 MAY 2015. Confidential. © Weather Action

Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946 Time periods normally accurate to +/- one day. At least 6 of the 8 should be basically correct this month.

Key Solar Lunar Action Periods Solar factors statement and improvements to be made to short-range forecasts when they come on TV are the most confident. Details are generally less certain. = Traffic Light warning / descriptions for Weather periods: Red = danger / disruption, Green quiet, Orange intermediate. For other warning notes and explanation see page 6

1-5 JUNE 2015 AB = 80% 6-8 JUNE 2015 B = 75%

Showery Ireland and Scotland and N/W England, some showers largely N/W; less wet in S/E. Same as 40d

Wet and windy (cyclonic) becoming less wet in (west) Ireland / Scotland. Turning cold possibly wintry in Scotland. Less wet SE.

Same as 40d

Winds: Generally SW’ly. Winds: Cyclonic/W’ly becoming NW’ly / N’ly later

Temps Cool / normal; warmer later in S/E Temps: Mostly cool / cold. Less cold SE

Sky: Variable; brighter/less cloudy in S/E Sky variable / cloudy

Solar Factor: R2, 1-4th, NSF 5th Solar Factors: : R3, 6-8th

WeatherAction Br+Ir / NW Eu Late May cold blast verifies new Advances (to SLAT12a) http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews15No14.pdf

Page1: WeatherAction 4 wks ahead part forecast May 26-28th+/-1d and Met O Report May 29th .

Piers Corbyn astrophysicist and Director of WeatherAction says: “This Late May cold blast is an important confirmation of our WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique – new advance to SLAT12A – which we warned meant COLDER NIGHTS than Slat 12. “This is a stratospheric wind effect which modulates the solar-wind magnetic effects of the sun”. May 18 & big snow drifts remain on Scottish Highlands nr Drumnochter. New glaciers could be forming in Scotland!

Likely possible weather map scenario: Mobile situation with low centre tracking Iceland to Norway sea / N sea and into Scandinavia later leaving higher pressure Britain & Ireland. Jet Stream: Large meanders

Likely possible weather map scenario: New Low centre N/W of Scotland prob tracks through Scotland / N England, into Scandinavia. Jet Stream: Large meanders

Weather Action™ © & Piers Corbyn accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Media use is welcome but may only be from issued quotes to the media concerned or displays on www.weatheraction.com

s

Ch Isles

Showery esp NW parts

Mostly dry some showers.

Ch Isles

Showery then turning less wet but cold.

wet windy and increasingly cold. Prob wintry on tops in Scotland

Becoming wetter, cold





9-12 JUNE 2015 AB = 80% 13-18 JUNE 2015 B = 75% 19-21 JUNE 2015 AB = 80%

N/S split. Wet and windy cold and wintry on tops in Scotland. South milder until later and less wet. (SLAT12a development) Similar to 40d

Becoming dry in Scotland and NW England and showery in West and South. V similar to 40d

Becoming wet and windy with hail and thunder in Ireland and West. Showery in Midlands. Most of Scotland and East England probably dry and quite warm. Same as 40d

Winds largely W’ly at start/ becoming N’ly Winds turn variable / E’ly in North. Winds Generally SW’ly/W/ly decreasing

Temps: Cool becoming COLD Temps: Coolish, warmer in East and Scotland. Temps: Turning cool/ colder from West; N/E warmer

Sky: Cloudy North, Bright South Sky: Cloudy Ireland and West, bright sunny N/E Sky: Cloudy Ireland & S/W, Scot & E brighter

Solar factors: R5 9-11th Solar Factors: R2 13-16; NSF 17-18th Solar Factors R3 19-21

Likely possible weather map scenario:

Low attacks from NW of Scotland and tracks into South Scandinavia and is partially blocked by High pressure to South. High pressure N Scandinavia. Jet Stream: blocked / long meanders


Shallow Low attacks from Ireland / West of Ireland and is blocked by High pressure centred N Scandinavia. Jet Stream: Blocked


Cyclonic active Low attacks from West and largely dissipates. More blocking in East than SLAT12. Jet Stream: More normal


Ch Isles

Wet and windy with extreme thunder and hail at times. Wintry on tops.

Heavy thundery showers and hail. South coast drier. Colder later. Ch Isles

Becoming dry and mostly fine

showery (cyclonic)

Ch Isles

Wet and windy with hail and thunder, getting colder.

Mostly dry quite warm variable sky humid





22-25 JUNE 2015 B = 75% 26-28 JUNE 2015 AB = 80% 29-30 JUNE /Jul 1 2015 AB = 80%

Becoming cloudy with perhaps some showers in west Ireland. Other parts dry and becoming warm /v warm (or v warm in SE), variable sky. Same as 40d

Becoming showery and a little breezy in most parts. Scotland & NE / E England Dry warmer and finer at first – colder later. Colder, esp Scotland, later than 40d

Becoming Showery and breezy Ireland and North/ NorthWest. South/East dry, fine + warm Same as 40d

Winds Generally S’ly Winds cyclonic becoming N’ly Winds Generally SW’ly

Temps: Warm / v warm in most parts; Ire cooler. Temps: cooler in Ireland +most England , Scot+N/E cold later Temps: Warm, cooler in NW

Sky: Cloudy in S/W Ireland.; otherwise bright / sunny Sky: Variable /bright , turning more cloudy/E Sky: Sunny in East, variable / more cloud in N/W and Eire

Solar Factors R4, 22-24; NSF, 25th Solar Factors NSF 26-28th Solar Factors R2 29-30th/1st Jul Likely possible weather map scenario:

Cyclonic active Low West of Ireland blocked by Higher pressure in Europe & Scandinavia. E Scandinavia + Siberia lower pressure. Transition from Slat 12a less frontal advance to East (more blocking) Jet Stream: blocked


Cyclonic shallow Low attacks from West and its centre passes into Ireland and then Wales / (N) England while filling. Timings unsure Jet Stream: blocked / huge meanders


New Low attacks from NW. Higher pressure in south and SE and France. North Scand High pressure. S Scand Lower pressure. Jet Stream: long stretches


Ch Isles

Dry and warm / v warm espec in east. high cloud.

Ch Isles

Showery and breezy espec Ireland. Turning cold.

Dry and quite warm at first turning cold

Ch Isles

Becoming showery & breezy.

Dry, fine, warm. Cloudy,

risk of showers.

2015 JUNE 30d (8 weather periods) Brit & Ire SLAT (Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) 12a forecast. Update of 40d ahead of 21May; Prod 31 MAY 2015..

Confidential. © Weather Action Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

Easy Look Forecast Graph JUNE 2015: 30d ahead detailed update of Longer Range. SLAT 12a. Normally accurate to 1 day. Showing likely rain, temperature & 'brightness' levels around the dates shown, NOT PRECISE DAILY PREDICTIONS. Weekends & holidays shaded. 1981-2010 norms standard.

Region Rest of Britain & Ireland For confidence of each weather period forecast refer to Date row. For possible Alternative Scenarios see notes on maps. Advice on getting best from your graph: Mark with a coloured pen on each graph the line or interpolated line which suits your area.

Date Weekend = > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1Jul

Confidence = > 80 80 80 80 80 75 75 75 80 80 80 80 75 75 75 75 75 75 80 80 80 75 75 75 75 80 80 80 80 80 80 ‘IN A WORD’ Showers esp N Variabe Storm + Thunder Mostly showery Finer Showery Ire + N/W Becoming gen Fine Showery S/E improves

PRECIP % of normal Wet Nth Less wet Bec wetter Rain floods, hail. Showers exc NE Mostly Dry Showery Dry exc Ire Dry Showers Drier esp SE

Wet 400% plus

Wet 200%

Average 100% (e.g. 2.5mm)

Mostly Dry 50%

Dry 0%

WINDS Mod Mod/strong Med Strong - Local gales Light Light Strong Light Mod Light Thunder & tornado

risk Mod/Low Med Med Very High (Top level) Low Low Mod / High High but blocked BI Low Low MEAN Temps Rel to norm °C Cool/cold Warmer COLD COLD Mostly Cool Warmer Cooler Much warmer Cool S/E warmer

+5C Warm

+2.5C MILD

NORMAL +/- CET (1981-2010) start to end MEAN 13.1ºC to 15.6ºC

-2.5C COLD

-5C V COLD SKY/SUN

% of normal Cloudy S/SE brighter Variable/Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy exc N/E Cloudy exc Scot+E Fine exc W Ire Vble/Cloudy Cloudy exc S/E

Sunny/Clear 200%

Variable 150%

Normal 100%

Cloudy 50%

Overcast 0%

Weekends / Hols / Events

Weekends this June tend to be showery/wet in but not everywhere, while the finest weather is on weekdays. 6-7th Turning mostly wet, less in South. 13-14th generally Showery, Scot/East finer esp later. 20-21st Showery espec Ireland 27-28th Showery, starting brighter in Scot/NE.

© Weather Action™& Piers Corbyn™ © accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or on web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement.

South

(Red) CET + other parts if not indicated separately

N

S

S/SE

S/E

SE

SE

Scot + E

High cloud

Ire Ire + Scot

S/E

W Ire

Scot + East

Ire Scot+ NE

Scot+NE

Ire

Scot/ NE

S/E

S/E

Scot+East

Snow Scotland tops

High cloud



Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

JUNE 2015 Britain & Ireland Forecast deviations from normal. (rel to 1981-2010 averages) PRECIPITATION % of normal MEAN TEMPERATURE deviation from local normal SUNSHINE/SKY % of normal

Overall normal or above in Ireland, Wales & West England. Most of Scotland, East & S below normal

Overall below normal in Ireland / west. Close to or above normal in east, SE and Most of Scotland.

Ireland / West cloudy. Scotland and most of England (except West / SW) sunny/bright.

JUNE 2015 Notes & Additional Information Confidence order: RTS SLAT 12a More confident of Rain , than Temp / Sun . Main uncertainty: Easterly penetration of fronts. Weather Warnings Cold blasts eg 9-12th; heavy rain hail in West parts at times

Key SLAP (Solar Lunar Action Periods) Solar factors statement and improvements to be made to short-range forecasts when they come on TV are the most confident of forecast statements. Details are generally less certain. In periods of Extra Activity (EA) [formerly ET (Extra Top) Red, Top Red, etc Now R1-R5 (top)] weather fronts are (much) more active than Standard Met Forecasts (Smfs) as on TV a few days ahead of events - making more rain, cloud, thunder, wind, & tornado risk. R5 (Red 5) = most extreme / dangerous events. Q = Quieter. NSF = No Specific Solar Factors. JSS = Jet Stream South tendency. JSN= Jet Stream Normal. Confidence levels A (85%), AB (80%), B (75%), BC (70%); C (65%)

Confidence levels Important information on Confidence and Timing of weather events and weather periods. 'A' - about 85% chance of being essentially right, 15% of being unhelpful. 'B' - about 75% chance of being essentially right, 25% of being unhelpful. 'C' - about 65% chance of being essentially right, 35% of being unhelpful

The Headline summary (page 1) is the most confident summary statement about the month. The Key weather type development (page 1) gives main pressure developments through the month. The detailed most likely weather periods, typically of around 4 days duration, are the Solar Lunar Action technique highest resolution long range forecast detail. They are not to be taken as exact predictions & include confidence levels. The weather period timings in period details (p 2–4) are most likely core time periods for the weather events or weather types specified. If the events / types occur the core time periods should include the specified events / types on at least 85% of occasions; with a probability of 15% or less that they occur in the wings of an extended time period which is one or two days longer than the given core on each side* . The time window does not mean that all that period will have certain (e.g.) extreme events but that they are expected to occur at some time during that period. The most probable sub-parts of periods for events may also be stated. [*Or poss longer in: (i) long weather periods, (ii) longest range forecasts where 1% uncertainty in 300 days ahead is 3 days or (iii) where consecutive weather periods are similar.]

© . Weather Action & Piers Corbyn ™ © accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without specific agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Newspaper or media use is welcome but may only be from a specific issued statement from WeatherAction or agreed with the newspaper or media concerned. The news content of this bulletin is entirely public. Weather Action’s forecast skill has been independently peer-review verified in the Journal of Atmospheric & Solar-Terrestrial Physics Vol 63 (2001) p29-34, Dennis Wheeler, Univ of Sunderland.]. Research Reports by Weather Action / Piers Corbyn on Solar Activity / Climate Change/Global warming available including at the Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Institute of Physics, London. and New York E:[email protected] for latest or visit www.weatheraction.com . WeatherAction, Delta House, 175-177 Borough High St, London SE1 1HR. Tel 020 7939 9946

Ch I

below normal 50-75%

Above / close to normal 70-150%

Ch I

Close to or Above Normal -0.2 to +0.8C

Below normal -2 to 0C

Ch I

Probably Above normal

95-120% of normal

Below normal 60-100% of normal

Contrasts across Britain and Ireland. Wet/showery and ...€¦ · Wet/showery and cloudy in Ireland...

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Transcript of Contrasts across Britain and Ireland. Wet/showery and ...€¦ · Wet/showery and cloudy in Ireland...