CONTRACT SURETY BONDS: UNDERSTANDING TODAY ’ S MARKET
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CONTRACT SURETY BONDS: UNDERSTANDING TODAY’S MARKET
2016
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Surety Losses & Profitability
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
110.0%
LossRatio
Calendar Year
Contract Surety Industry Direct Loss RatiosCY 1958 - 2015
Source: The Surety & Fidelity Association of America
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Surety Losses & Profitability
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Surety in the Early 1990s
Strong economy Excess capacity in surety market Low premiums Relaxed underwriting Commercial surety expansion
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Surety in the Early 2000s
Sagging economy Significant commercial losses Heavy contract surety losses Increased failure rates
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Surety in the 2000s
Source: BizMiner
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Contract Surety Premiums & Losses
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Billio
ns
of Dolla
rs
Direct Premiums WrittenDirect Losses Incurred
Source: The Surety & Fidelity Association of America “Twelve-Year Experience Summaries (2002-2013) Surety Countrywide (Preliminary)”
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Top 15 Writers of All U.S. Surety
1994 2015
Surety
($millions)
Premium Surety
1 Reliance Travelers 147.1 1 TRAVELERS BOND2 USF&G St. Paul Travelers 144.1 2 LIBERTY MUTUAL GROUP3 F&D Zurich 142.5 3 ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP4 St Paul Group Travelers 140.9 4 CNA INSURANCE GROUP5 AIG AIU Holdings Chartis AIG 111.5 5 CHUBB & SON INC GROUP6 Aetna Travelers 106.6 6 HARTFORD FIRE & CAS GROUP7 Continental CNA 100.7 7 HCC SURETY GROUP8 Fireman's Fund Allianz 97.3 8 IFIC SURETY GROUP9 CNA Insurance Companies 92.8 9 GREAT AMERICAN INS COS
10 Safeco Liberty Mutual 88.9 10 RLI INSURANCE GROUP11 Chubb (Merged with ACE) 77.7 11 LEXON/BONDSAFEGUARD INS COS12 Hartford 74.0 12 NAS SURETY GROUP13 Amwest Gone 70.2 13 ARCH INSURANCE GROUP14 Capsure CNA 55.3 14 MERCHANTS BONDING CO GROUP15 CIGNA ACE Chubb 49.7 15 THE HANOVER INS GROUP
179.8161.1160.8
($millions)
Premium
781.8751.4478.3427.7401.4
83.3
131.7121.6109.5102.888.683.6
Companies that are gone in REDCompanies that merged or were sold are in BLUE
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Construction Activity
All Construction Public Private
Total Construction +4.9% -1.3% +7.0%
Nonresidential +4.0% -1.3% +7.8%
Lodging +25.6% - +27.1%
Manufacturing -2.9% - -3.0%
Public Safety -7.7% -5.8% -
Power +4.7% -17.2% +7.7%
Educational +5.2% +4.2% +9.0%
Transportation -4.0% -3.2% -6.0%
Amusement/Rec +8.7% -3.5% +22.2%
Office +21.9% -6.1% +26.9%
Highway/Street 0.0% +0.1% -
Health care +1.0% -1.3% +1.7%
Commercial +9.6% +31.4% +8.8%
www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
U.S. Census Gains August 2015 - August 2016
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Outlook for 2016 & Beyond
Optimism about surety capacity & demand Increase in contractor failures and losses
as economy recovers Continued disciplined underwriting,
exposure management & project analysis Surety available for best contractors Marginal contractors have difficulty
obtaining bonding Public private partnerships (P3s)
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Underwriting
The 3 “C”s: Capital Capacity Character
4 and 5: Continuity Contracts
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Underwriting
Capital Financial statements Indemnity Working capital Work-in-progress
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Underwriting
Capacity Resumes Contingency plan Business plan Equipment
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Underwriting
Character Reputation Relationships References
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Bond Premiums
Type of Construction
Geographic Area
Contractor Size
Still a Bargain
Pennies on the dollar
Premium
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Capacity
Small( < $50 M)
SBAProgram
Medium($100 M)
CompetitiveSurety Market
Jumbo( > $500 M)
Multiple sureties
Joint ventures
Partial bonds
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Capacity
Medium($100 M)
CompetitiveSurety Market
Jumbo( > $500 M)
Multiple sureties
Joint ventures
Partial bonds
Small( < $50 M)
SBAProgram
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Claims
Severity&
Frequencyof Claims
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Advice for Today’s Contractors Know rights & responsibilities Stay within capabilities Manage growth & overhead Learn why contractors fail
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Advice for Today’s Contractors Communicate Prepare for economic recovery
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Advice for Today’s Contractors Contract terms Bond forms Construction CPA Adjust overhead Bank line of credit Conserve capital Bond subcontractors Qualify the surety
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Advice for Today’s Contractors
Underwriter
Producer
Contractor
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Advice for Today’s Contractors
Underwriter
Producer
Contractor
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For More Information
Surety Information Office (SIO)www.sio.org | [email protected]
SIO is a joint initiative of The Surety & Fidelity Association of America (SFAA) and National Association of Surety Bond
Producers (NASBP).