Context: technological disruptions in energy systems S. Keshav
Transcript of Context: technological disruptions in energy systems S. Keshav
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Lecture 1Context: technological disruptions in energy systems
S. Keshav
School of Computer ScienceUniversity of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
All images from Wikipedia unless otherwise specified
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Topics
Context
Technology disruptors◦ Solar◦ Storage◦ BlockchainsEconomic impact
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6http://blueskiesmeteorology.com
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7http://www.antinuclear.net
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What can we do?
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Politics
• Citizen awareness
Policies
• Regulation• Pricing
Economics
• Viability•Markets• Individual rationality
Energy systems
•Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Consumption
Technology
• Energy tech• Solar•Wind
• Info tech• Sensing• Communication• Computation• Control• Blockchain
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Politics
• Citizen awareness
Policies
• Regulation• Pricing
Economics
• Viability•Markets• Individual rationality
Energy systems
•Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Consumption
Technology
• Energy tech• Solar•Wind
• Info tech• Sensing• Communication• Computation• Control• Blockchain
• Citizens• Professionals• Educators
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Politics
• Citizen awareness
Policies
• Regulation• Pricing
Economics
• Viability•Markets• Individual rationality
Energy systems
•Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Consumption
Technology
• Energy tech• Solar•Wind
• Info tech• Sensing• Communication• Computation• Control• Blockchain
• Citizens• Professionals• Educators
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Politics
• Citizen awareness
Policies
• Regulation• Pricing
Economics
• Viability•Markets• Individual rationality
Energy systems
•Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Consumption
Technology
• Energy tech• Solar• Storage•Wind
• Info tech• Sensing• Communication• Computation• Control• Blockchain
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Technology disruptionsSolar energy
Storage
Digitalization◦ Sensing◦ Communication◦ Computation◦ Control
Blockchain: the engine of trust
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Solar energy: an introduction
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25 April 1954 Bell Laboratories
Chapin, Fuller and Pearson.
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18http://free-energy-ltd.com/freeenergy-solar-power.html
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Topaz solar farm, California 25.6 km2 9 million panels
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Cell phone penetration (ITU) 1990=1 Cumulative Solar (EPIA) 2000=1
Solar PV is growing as fast as cell phones
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http://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_mobile.htmhttp://www.epia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/EPIA_Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_2014-2018_-_Medium_Res.pdf
(c) S. Keshav [email protected] http://iss4e.ca
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Positive feedback loop
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The more you ship
The cheaper it gets
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3 characteristics of solar generation1. Sunlight is free! Near‐zero OPEX, all cost is CAPEX
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3 characteristics of solar generation1. Sunlight is free! Near‐zero OPEX, all cost is CAPEX
2. 20‐25 year nearly maintenance‐free lifetime
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3 characteristics of solar generation1. Sunlight is free! Near‐zero OPEX, all cost is CAPEX
2. 20‐25 year nearly maintenance‐free lifetime
3. Amount of generation over lifetime depends on geography
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Levelized Cost of Energy
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Levelized Cost of Energy
Effective cost per kWh (units of energy)
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Levelized Cost of Energy
$/kWp(Dollars per 1000 watts)
CAPEX$1000
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Levelized Cost of Energy
$/kWhAverage cost per unit of energy over 20y lifetime
$/kWpCAPEX
*Assumes a fixed equipment lifetime
$1000
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Levelized Cost of Energy
$/kWhAverage cost (over lifetime)
$/kWpCAPEX
*Assumes a fixed equipment lifetime
$1000
1000 KWh producedover lifetime
$1/KWh
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Impact of CAPEX reduction
$/kWhAverage cost
$/kWp$1000
1000 KWh producedover lifetime
$1/KWh
$800
$0.8/KWh
CAPEX
Swanson’s Law
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Impact of geography
$/kWhkWh/kWp.year
Incoming solar radiationAverage cost
$/kWpInitial cost
Southwest US
Saudi Arabia
North Germany
France
$1000
$1/KWh
$0.5/KWh
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Compare to conventional$/kWh
kWh/kWp.yearInsolationAverage cost
$/kWpInitial cost
Cost of conventional grid energy$0.1/KWh
Southwest US
Saudi Arabia
North Germany
France
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CAPEX trend$/kWh
kWh/kWp.yearInsolationAverage cost
$/kWpInitial cost
Cost of conventional grid energy
$200
$0.2kWh
$50
$0.05/kWh
$0.1/kWh Southwest US
Saudi Arabia
North Germany
France
Swanson’s Law
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Conventional energy trend$/kWh
kWh/kWp.yearInsolationAverage cost
$/kWpInitial cost
Cost of conventional grid energy Southwest US
Saudi Arabia
North Germany
France
$0.1/kWh
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Solar wins! Everywhere!
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The solar revolution …
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… will be led by the accountants
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Unfortunately…
Problem 1: No sun at night…
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Barnhart et al, Proc. Energy and Environment, 6:2804, 2013
Problem 2: Variability
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Problem 3: Excess generation
488 May 2016, Germany (from Agora Energiewende)
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Problem 4: Land use
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One solution: storage
Storage decouples supply and demand
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Traditional storage
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Storage: old and new
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Nature Climate Change: 2014Tesla/Panasonic and GM/LG Chem battery costs are already (in 2016) down to the lowest projections for 2020!
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Positive feedback loop
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The more you ship
The cheaper it gets
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Why?
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Nissan Leaf chassis
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Tesla gigafactory
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Source: EvSales.blogspot.com
Annual EV sales
*Includes Battery as well as Hybrid Electric Vehicles
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Positive feedback loop
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The more you ship
The cheaper it gets
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But something is missing…
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Sensing and control
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One example…
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Generation Load
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Conventional grid
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Generation Load
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Future grid
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Generation Load
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Future grid
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Generation Load
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Need to forecast, monitor and control…
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Generation Load
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Digitalization
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Pervasive sensing
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Pervasive communication
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Pervasive computation and control
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Source: The Economist
Digitalization allows pervasive communication, sensing, computation, control
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Source: European Technology Platform Vision Document
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Blockchains: an introduction
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Would you buy an umbrella from me?
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How about 1KWh?
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What is a blockchain?A globally visible ledger that is owned by no one but can be trusted by everyone
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How to buy a hot dog
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How to buy a hot dog
Go to the bank
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How to buy a hot dog
Go to the bank
Get $5◦ Bank reduces your account balance by $5
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How to buy a hot dog
Go to the bank
Get $5◦ Bank reduces your account balance by $5
Pay $5 to vendor and get a hot dog
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How to buy a hot dog
Go to the bank
Get $5◦ Bank reduces your account balance by $5
Pay $5 to vendor and get a hot dog
Vendor deposits $5◦ Bank increases vendor’s account balance by $5
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How to buy a hot dog
Go to the bank
Get $5◦ Bank reduces your account balance by $5
Pay $5 to vendor and get a hot dog
Vendor deposits $5◦ Bank increases vendor’s account balance by $5
It’s all about manipulating a ledger!◦ No need for bank notes
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Buying with a ledger
Transfer $5 to vendor
Transfer hotdog to buyer
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But…
What if the ledger is corrupted?
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CS to the rescue!
Distribute the ledger◦ A copy of the ledger is stored at many servers
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CS to the rescue!
Distributed
Transparent◦ Everyone can easily validate transactions◦ Though private transactions possible
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CS to the rescue!
Distributed
Transparent
Immutable◦ Once in the ledger, information cannot be changed
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CS to the rescue!
Distributed
Transparent
Immutable
Secure◦ Non‐repudiable◦ Allows a certain fraction of servers to be hacked/become untrusted
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No need for a trusted entity!
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Result
A globally visible ledger that is owned by no one but can be trusted by everyone
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ConsequencesAllows trading by mutually untrusting parties
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ConsequencesAllows trading by mutually untrusting parties
Can we use it to trade umbrellas?
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ConsequencesAllows trading by mutually untrusting parties
Can we use it to trade umbrellas?
Energy?
Rides in an autonomous solar‐powered EV?
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Politics
• Citizen awareness
Policies
• Regulation• Pricing
Economics
• Viability•Markets• Individual rationality
Energy systems
•Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Consumption
Technology
• Energy tech• Solar•Wind
• Info tech• Sensing• Communication• Computation• Control• Blockchain
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$30 Trillioneconomic activity!
*displaced over 20 years and very approximate numbers
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Fuel cost of transportation: $3.5 Trillion/year99
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1.05 Trillion/yr 30% solar-powered transportation
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ElectricUtility AnnualRevenues:
1 Trillion/year
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1.05 Trillion/yr 30% solar-powered transportation
0.5 Trillion/yr Utilities 50% solar/wind supply
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Source: The Economist
IoT spending = 10% of revenue= 0.1 Trillion/year
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1.05 Trillion/yr 30% solar-powered transportation
0.5 Trillion/yr
0.1 Trillion/yr IoT spending
Utilities 50% solar/wind supply
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1.05 Trillion/yr 30% solar-powered transportation
0.5 Trillion/yr Utilities 50% solar/wind supply
0.25 Trillion/yr
$1.65 Trillion/year of economic disruption
0.1 Trillion/yr IoT spend
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$ 33 Trillioneconomic activity!
*displaced over 20 years and very approximate numbers
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I’m lying…
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Well, perhaps not
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