Complexity, Uncertainty & Surprises Jan Rotmans Copenhagen, 15-05-2007.
Context Driven Agile Leadership Managing Complexity and Uncertainty Todd Little Sr. Development...
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Transcript of Context Driven Agile Leadership Managing Complexity and Uncertainty Todd Little Sr. Development...
Context Driven Agile Leadership Managing Complexity and Uncertainty
Todd Little
Sr. Development Manager
Managing the Coming Storm Inside the Tornado
When will we get the requirements?All in good time, my little pretty, all in good timeBut I guess it doesn't matter anyway
Doesn't anybody believe me?
You're a very bad man!
Just give me your estimates by this afternoon
No, we need something today!
I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months
No, we need it sooner.
Not so fast! Not so fast! ... I'll have to give the matter a little thought. Go away and come back tomorrow
Ok then, it will take 2 years.
Team Unity
Project Kickoff
We’re not in Kansas Anymore
My! People come and go so quickly here!
I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there!
The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand.
"Hee hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't hear of it! Why, my little party's just beginning!
Developer HeroReorg
Testing
Landmark sells shrink wrap software for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
• Users are Geoscientists and Engineers
• Subsidiary of Halliburton Energy Services
• Integrated suite of ~60 Products
• ~50 Million lines of code• Some products 20+
years old• 80+% of project team
stays on same product
Common Model Representation
Well data
Production data
Seismic data
Velocity data
Reservoir /Fluid data
Structural /Stratigraphic data
Common Model Representation
Landmark wanted to understand and improve our software development process
• Maximize our Value Delivery• Scaling to project conditions • Manage Uncertainty and Complexity• Organizational commonality without being
overly prescriptive– Core processes– Adaptive processes– What is “barely sufficient?”
Agile Manifesto
We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: – Individuals and interactions over processes and tools – Working software over comprehensive documentation– Customer collaboration over contract negotiation– Responding to change over following a plan
That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.
Kent Beck, Mike Beedle, Arie van Bennekum, Alistair Cockburn, Ward Cunningham, Martin Fowler, James Grenning, Jim Highsmith, Andrew Hunt, Ron Jeffries, Jon Kern, Brian Marick, Robert C. Martin, Steve Mellor, Ken Schwaber, Jeff Sutherland, Dave Thomas
Auditor Manifesto
We are uncovering painful ways of auditing software teams and enjoy making others do what we tell them. Through this work we have come to value:
– Processes and tools over individuals and interactions – Comprehensive documentation over working software – Contract negotiation over customer collaboration – Following a plan over responding to change
That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.
Number of people involved
C
riti
cali
ty(d
efec
ts c
ause
loss
of.
..)
Comfort(C)
Essentialmoney
(E)
Life(L)
+20%
. . . Prioritized for Legal Liability
1 - 6 - 20 - 40 - 100 - 200 - 500 - 1,000
C6 C20 C40 C100 C200 C500 C1000
D6 D20 D40 D100 D200 D500 D1000
E6 E20 E40 E100 E200 E500 E1000
L6 L20 L40 L100 L200 L500 L1000
Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance
Cockburn’s Crystal Methodology according to (project size, system criticality, team priorities)
Discretionarymoney
(D)
Agile SweetSpot
Balancing Agility and DisciplineBoehm and Turner
Personnel
Dynamism (% Requirements-change/month)
Culture (% thriving on chaos vs. order)
Size (# of personnel)
Criticality (Loss due to impact of defects)
5030
105
1
90
70
50
30
10
3
10
30
100
300
35
30
25
20
15
Essential Funds Discretionary
Funds Comfort
Single Life
Many Lives
(% Level 1B) (% Level 2&3)
0
10
20
30
40
Agile
Disciplined
Boehm and Turner Observations on Balancing
• Neither agile nor plan-driven methods provide a silver bullet
• Agile and plan-driven methods have home grounds where each clearly dominates
• Future developments will need both agility and discipline
• Some balanced methods are emerging
• It is better to build your method up than to tailor it down
• Methods are important, but potential silver bullets are more likely to be found in areas dealing with – People– Values– Communications– Expectations
management
Agile Manifesto 5 Years Later: Dealing with the Right
• Processes and tools that support agility and individuals and interactions (e.g. wikis, collaboration environments, etc.)
• Documentation that leads to working software. A focus on documentation as a consumable rather than as a deliverable.
• Contracts that are written in a manner consistent with collaboration and agile delivery
• Plans that anticipate and expect change
Landmark studied its project portfolio and identified several project and team attributes
• Project Complexity– Team size– Mission criticality – Team location– Team capacity– Domain knowledge gaps– Dependencies
• Uncertainty– Market Uncertainty– Technical Uncertainty– Project Duration– Dependents
We scored the Complexity Attributes on a scale from 1 to 10
Attribute 1 10
Team Size 1 100
Mission Critical SpeculativeSafety Critical with
significant exposure
Team Location Same Room Multi-site, World Wide
Team CapacityEstablished Team of
expertsNew team of mostly
novices
Domain knowledge gapsDevelopers know the
domain as well as expert users
Developers have no idea about the domain
Dependencies No dependenciesTight Integration with
several projects
And we scored the Uncertainty Attributes
Attribute 1 10
Market UncertaintyKnown deliverable,
possibly defined contractual obligation
New market that is unknown and untested
Technical UncertaintyEnhancements to existing
architecture
New technology, new architecture. May be
some "R"
Project Duration 1-4 week 24 months
Dependents/ Scope Flexibility
Well defined contractual obligations or Infrastructure
Independent
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Project Complexity
Un
ce
rtai
nty
We cross plotted the results and divided the chart into four quadrants
ixComplexity 10log2 iytyUncertain 10log
2
Refactored for Simplicity
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Project Complexity
Un
ce
rta
inty
)(ixgeomeanComplexity )( iygeomeantyUncertain
This looked a lot like the Boston Matrix
Boston Matrix
Market Share
Ma
rk
et
Gro
wth
Low
High
Dogs
Cash Cows
StarsQuestion Marks
Low High
???
So we named it the Houston Matrix and gave animal names to the quadrants
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Project Complexity
Un
cert
ain
ty
Simple, young projects. Need agilityTight Teams
Skunks
Dogs
Complex, mature marketNeed defined interfaces
Cows
Bulls
Agility to handle uncertaintyProcess definition to cope with complexity
laissez faire
Colts
We looked at an overall process flow and how it would be adaptable.
Adaptive ActivitiesInputs
Pre-conditions
Project Sanction
RTM
Outputs
Post-conditions
•Released Software
CORE Activities
Iterations
We Identified a set of Core Processes for all projects to use
• Aggregate Product Plan
• A/B/C List
• Quality Agreement
• Continuous Integration
• Expert User Involvement
• Project Dashboard
The Aggregate Product Plan sets the high level vision and expectations
Project: OpenWells Davenport Project Code: 010265
Product: OpenWells Target Date: 3/30/2004
Version: 2003.11.0.0 Release Date: 3/31/2004
Product Manager: Marcus Ridgway SDD: David Field
Vision:Version 2.0 of the new Well Operations reporting and data analysis application. Will bring powerful new query, graphing and reporting capabilities. Comprehensive D&WS input data and output reports will be supported including integration to Production suite.
Platforms:Windows 2000 /Oracle 8.1.7Windows XP / Oracle 9i Windows 2000 & XP /MSDE
Features:18 additional reportsAddtnl apps - Data Anlyzr, NG Profile, AutoprintExtended Rig Equipment supportKnowledge Management - Technical limit drilling,lessons learned, non-productive time, and equipment failuresApplication enhancements (spreadsheet support andtailored well services tab and others)
Strategic Fit:IntegrationWorkflow ( Prototype, plan, actual)Top quartile technology
Target Markets:Existing DIMS customersUS IndependentsNOCsGovernment and regulatory organizationsCompanies requiring integrated offering w/decent wellbore schematic requirementsService companies
The A/B/C List sets proper expectations
A MUST be completed in order to ship the product.
B SHOULD be completed in order to ship the product.
C MAY be completed prior to shipping the product if time allows.
Only “A” features may be committed to customers.
“A” features must fit in a p90 confidence schedule. No more than 50% of the planned effort can be allocated to “A” items
A
A/B/C List
B
C
A
B
CD
50
%
10
0%
Backlog Plan Typical Delivery
50
%2
5%
25
%
A/B/C List
P10 P50 P901 A Honor common login Recognize and support the EDM common login information 5 10 20 M
2 A Certify against old data model
Formally test the new ARIES product against the old ARIES database. If successful, this will ease the transition by giving customers flexibility and enabling them to easily evaluate acquisition databases 10 20 40 L
3 B User group requestsImprove decline calculations to a reserve limit when using hyp/exp switchover 15 30 60 L
4 B Fill RMS functionality gapsProvide multi-level approval and freeze process. Allowing multiple sets of reserve values. 30 60 120 XL
5 C Fill RMS functionality gapsCurrent reconciliation is by EIA or SEC change codes. Need ability for more detail and or user defined arrangements. 35 70 140 XL
6 C User group requestsSTART date with option for a variable DELAY/SHIFT period (number of months) including use with ENDDATE 5 10 20 M
7 C User group requestsExpand range in which we solve for an unknown decline rate in a hyperbolic equation 5 10 20 M
Oxbridge - P&E Systems Requirements
ARIESEstimates
# Rank Name Notes/Purpose/Description T-Shirt
We use a Quality Agreement similar to Thomsett
Attribute
“A” Very
Important
“B”
Important
“C”Not Very Important
Completeness of Functionality X
Completeness of Testing X
Reliability X
Performance X
Installation X
Usability X
Integration X
On Line Help X
Training X
So we named it the Houston Matrix and gave animal names to the quadrants
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Project Complexity
Un
cert
ain
ty
Simple, young projects. Need agilityTight Teams
Skunks
Dogs
Complex, mature marketNeed defined interfaces
Cows
Bulls
Agility to handle uncertaintyProcess definition to cope with complexity
laissez faire
Colts
Don’t throw novice project managers at a bull project
Brooks’ law in action: throw a developer at a late bull project
Project Complexity and Uncertainty influence how to scale our agile process
• One size doesn’t fit all• The assessment tool is a guide• Landmark’s portfolio balance
– 10% Bulls– 10% Cows– 20% Colts– 60% Dogs
Product Innovation Flow
Adaptive Activities Pro
ject
Sanct
ion
RTM
CORE Activities
Idea Filter
Hot Items
ABacklog Burnup
Sales
Services
Customer Support
ProductBacklog
A Items
IterationBacklog
Flexible ScopeBacklog
New
ly D
isco
vere
d
It
em
s
Most Items for consideration in next release
B & CReleaseBacklog
B/C/D
Nickoliasen Model for Idea Filter(Executive Summit ADC 2004)
Mar
ket
Dif
fere
nti
atin
g
High
Low
Mission CriticalLow High
PartnerOr convert
To Mission Critical
Focus andAllocateResources
Who Cares?AchieveParity
Products Tend to follow a Lifecycle path
Product Lifecycle
Complexity
Un
cert
ain
ty
Low
High
Dogs
Cows
Low High
Bulls
Skunks
Colts
AB
C
Business Process Value Chain
MarketProduct
DevelopmentSales
Specifications Development Delivery
Business Need Development Delivery Internal IT
Product Company
Contract Model
Business Process Value Chain
InnovationDiscovery of unanticipated features or other innovative ways of improving the product C C A
Integration Attention to cross product integration issues C B B
Development Velocity Speed of development of new product features C B A
Quality Product reliability B A B
Customer Responsiveness
Business agility - ability to respond quickly to new customer needs C C B
Predictability Focus on accuracy of release date A B B
Project traceability
Audit ability of project process. Traditionally very important for outsourcers. A B C
Cost Importance of a low Cost structure A A C
Portfolio Management and Dealing with Darwin (G. Moore)
Mar
ket
Dif
fere
nti
atin
g
High
Low
Mission CriticalLow High
Invent Deploy
ManageOffload
Create Change
Embrace Change
Eliminate Change
Control Change
Ad Hoc Agile
Outsource Structured
Follow the Yellow Brick Road
Oz never did give nothing to the tin man, that he didn’t, didn’t already have
Early Release of Bull Project
Bull Program, Dog Project
Don’t mistreat your cows
The Agile Project Leadership Network Declaration of Interdependence
(www.apln.org)• We increase return on investment by making continuous flow of value our focus.
• We deliver reliable results by engaging customers in frequent interactions and shared ownership.
• We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations, anticipation and adaptation.
• We unleash creativity and innovation by recognizing that individuals are the ultimate source of value, and creating an environment where they can make a difference.
• We boost performance through group accountability for results and shared responsibility for team effectiveness.
• We improve effectiveness and reliability through situationally specific strategies, processes and practices.
David Anderson, Sanjiv Augustine, Christopher Avery, Alistair Cockburn, Mike Cohn, Doug DeCarlo, Donna Fitzgerald, Jim Highsmith, Ole Jepsen, Lowell Lindstrom, Todd Little, Kent McDonald, Pollyanna Pixton, Preston Smith and Robert Wysocki
Software Beyond Software
Pro
ject
Le
ader
ship
Pro
ject
E
xecu
tion
Pair Programming
Continuous Build
TDD
Collaboration
Change
Empowerment
APLN
Relationship of the APLN to the AgileAlliance
Interdependence and Leadership
• Context• Uncertainty• Value• Customers• Individuals• Teams
Boehm and Turner Observations on Balancing
• Neither agile nor plan-driven methods provide a silver bullet
• Agile and plan-driven methods have home grounds where each clearly dominates
• Future developments will need both agility and discipline
• Some balanced methods are emerging
• It is better to build your method up than to tailor it down
• Methods are important, but potential silver bullets are more likely to be found in areas dealing with – People– Values– Communications– Expectations
management
Security and Value(Great Boss, Dead Boss)
+ Tribal Security -
Individual
Security
Civil Service Purpose
Outcasts Anarchy
+ Tribal Value -
Individual
Value
Agile Leadership
Don’t over stereotype:e.g. Not all dogs are the same