Content CIS share in the world trade Current state of export via the Baltic Sea ports
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CIS steel at the key CIS steel at the key export markets export markets . . Freight flows Freight flows perspectives in the perspectives in the Baltic Sea region Baltic Sea region Andrey Kuzmin Andrey Kuzmin Analyst - Consultant Analyst - Consultant «Metal Expert Consulting» «Metal Expert Consulting» Baltic Sea Freight Market and Ports Baltic Sea Freight Market and Ports 2008 2008 15-17 15-17 September September 2008, 2008, St.Petersburg St.Petersburg
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CIS steel at the key export markets . Freight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea region Andrey Kuzmin Analyst - Consultant «Metal Expert Consulting» Baltic Sea Freight Market and Ports 2008 15-17 September 2008, St.Petersburg. Content CIS share in the world trade - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Content CIS share in the world trade Current state of export via the Baltic Sea ports
CIS steel at the key export CIS steel at the key export marketsmarkets. .
Freight flows perspectives in Freight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea regionthe Baltic Sea region
Andrey KuzminAndrey Kuzmin
Analyst - ConsultantAnalyst - Consultant
«Metal Expert Consulting»«Metal Expert Consulting»
Baltic Sea Freight Market and PortsBaltic Sea Freight Market and Ports 2008 200815-17 15-17 SeptemberSeptember 2008, 2008, St.PetersburgSt.Petersburg
ContentContent
• CIS share in the world tradeCIS share in the world trade
• Current state of export via the Baltic Sea portsCurrent state of export via the Baltic Sea ports
• Freight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea regionFreight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea region
CISCIS: : steel production dynamicssteel production dynamics, , MtMt
20020077
steelsteelproductionproduction
121 121 MtMt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008H1
Russ ia Ukraine Kazakhs tan Belarus Moldova Uzbekis tan
CIS share in world steel productionCIS share in world steel production, , MtMt
20020077world productionworld production::
1,34 1,34 bln tbln t
China shareChina share::36%36%
CIS shareCIS share::9%9%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008H1
C I S C hina O thers
Changes in steel and raw materials world trade structure in Changes in steel and raw materials world trade structure in 20072007
scrap square billet
pig iron
flat products
long products
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
slab
CIS role in steel and raw materials world tradeCIS role in steel and raw materials world trade, , MtMt
CIS44%
CIS12%
CIS40%
CIS47%
CIS8%
CIS13%
pig iron17.4
slab31.5 flat products
208
scrap90.3
sguarebillet30.4
long products74.2
Geography of raw materials export from Russia to non-CISGeography of raw materials export from Russia to non-CISin January in January -- July July 200 20088, %, %
Pig iron exportPig iron export::2007 - 5,4 2007 - 5,4 MtMtJanJan--JulJul 2008– 3 2008– 3 MtMt
Steel scrap exportSteel scrap export::2007 - 7,2 2007 - 7,2 MtMtJanJan--JulJul 2008– 3 2008– 3 MtMt
E.Europe
N.America
S.America
Far East
W.Europe
Turkey
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Middle East
China
Turkey
N.America
W.Europe
Far East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Geography of semis export from Russia to non-CIS Geography of semis export from Russia to non-CIS in January in January -- July July 200 20088, %, %
Square billet exportSquare billet export::2007 - 5 2007 - 5 MtMtJanJan--JulJul 2008 – 4 2008 – 4 MtMt
Slab exportSlab export::2007 - 8,2 2007 - 8,2 MtMtJan-Jul Jan-Jul 20082008 – 5,4 – 5,4 MtMt
E.Europe China
N.America
Turkey
S.America
Africa
W.Europe
Middle East
Far East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
N.America
Turkey
W.Europe
Middle EastChinaE.Europe
Far East
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Geography of Russian finished steel export to non-CIS Geography of Russian finished steel export to non-CIS in January – July in January – July 20020088, %, %
Long products exportLong products export::20072007 – 2,25 – 2,25 MtMtJan-Jul Jan-Jul 20082008 – 1,4 – 1,4 MtMt
Flat Flat products exportproducts export:: 2007 – 7,8 2007 – 7,8 MtMtJan-Jul Jan-Jul 20082008 – 4,3 – 4,3 MtMt
Turkey
W.Europe
Far East
E.Europe
China
Middle East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Others
E.Europe
N.America
Turkey
Far East
Middle East
W.Europe
Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dynamics of steel scrap and steel products transshipment Dynamics of steel scrap and steel products transshipment in the Baltic Sea portsin the Baltic Sea ports, , ‘000 tons‘000 tons
20020077steel products steel products
transshipmenttransshipment::8,6 8,6 MtMt
steel scrap steel scrap transshipmenttransshipment: :
4,3 4,3 MtMt
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2005 2006 2007 J an- J ul 2008
s teel products scrap
long products
13%
semifinished
42%flat products
45%
long products
16%
flat products
45%
semifinished
39%
Structure of steel products shipping via the Baltic Sea Structure of steel products shipping via the Baltic Sea portsports
20020077
Jan-JulJan-Jul 2008 2008
RussiaRussia: : crude steel production forecastcrude steel production forecast, , MtMt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RussiaRussia: : pig iron production forecastpig iron production forecast, , MtMt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RussiaRussia: : HBI production forecastHBI production forecast, , MtMt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RussiaRussia: : steel scrap collection and consumption forecaststeel scrap collection and consumption forecast, , MtMt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
scrap collection domestic market
Actual prices for pig ironActual prices for pig iron, , scrap and steel products exported scrap and steel products exported from Russiafrom Russia, , $$//tt FOBFOB the Baltic Seathe Baltic Sea
Sep-08 – prices as of September 1, 2008
Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08Steel Scrap 3А 626 480 433Pig Iron 943 867 810Billet 1125 882 740Slabs 1105 1020 850Wire rod 6.5; 8 mm 1238 1049 900HR sheet, coil 2-8 mm 1160 1085 980HR sheet 10-30 mm 1300 1232 1225CR sheets, coil 1208 1185 1170
China and the Far East: reduction of steel output during the third quarter could create short supply in the domestic markets of the region. However, as China managed to increase its presence on the global market even with limited production it is obvious that there will be no deficit in Chinese local market.
ЕС countries: subdued economic growth in the region and declining construction activity will negatively affect steel demand.
USA: due to growing production costs, prices of local producers will be increasing, still lagging behind import prices.
The Middle East: this is the only region where we are expecting revival of steel products demand in the IV quarter. However, high level of competition, overstocking of regional warehouses and expansion of local production will hardly allow price to recover. The highest competition will be observed in the long products segment.
Summary:
steel production in Russia will increase. As a result in medium-term perspective the steel products export from the country will go up, first of all – exports of semis;
steel scrap export from Russia will fall with high speed;
the Baltic Sea ports facilities will continue to exceed metal-roll freight-flows. There won't be great changes in the structure of rolled iron supply from Russia via the Baltic Sea ports;
steel products transshipment in the Baltic Sea ports will depend, first of all, on price situation in EU countries and USA.
