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Contemporary Developments in Contemporary Developments in Nepal & Options for IndiaNepal & Options for India

Dr. Rahul Tripathi & Joel D’SilvaDr. Rahul Tripathi & Joel D’Silva

South Asia Together – ICG, Goa. South Asia Together – ICG, Goa.

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Structure of the Presentation

Nepal – Brief Historical Background.

Democratic experience and Maoist resurgence.

Build up to the recent crisis.

India’s dilemmas and options.

Challenges ahead

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NepalBrief Historical Background

Evolution of Monarchy

The Rana Regime (1846-1952)

Panchayat Democracy (1960-1990)

Return to parliamentary democracy (1990-2005)

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Prithvi Narayan Shah

ShumsherJung Bahadur Rana

Birendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev

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Nature of Nepalese Society

Predominantly Hindu (90%)

Major ethnic groupsa. Tibeto-Burman migrants (hills & mountains)b. Indo-Aryans (plains, Terai )c. Newari (original people –

Katmandu Valley)

Prevalence of Indo-Aryan caste hierarchy

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Nature of Nepalese Economy

Among the poorest & least developed countries

Agriculture provides 80% of employment & 41% of GDP

Unemployment 50% approx.

Economic growth – 0.8% (1960-1990) and 2.1% (1990-2003)

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Democratic Experience & Maoist Resurgence Turbulent parliamentary

Democracy in 1990’s. Emergence of Maoists in mid-

90’s. 40 point demand on

Nationalism (9), People’s democracy (17) & Livelihood (14).

Armed struggle

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Girija Prasad Koirala Prachanda Dr. Baburam Bhattarai

The Maoists

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Spread of Maoism

Nepal (1990’s)

Nepal (2006)

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Build up to the recent crisis The crisis of Monarchy

a. The Palace massacre (2001) b. The ‘activist’ & ‘unpopular’ monarch. c. Clamp down on freedoms

Dismissal of the Government & proclamation of emergency

7 party alliance (SPA) & Public protests

Restoration of Parliament

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Prince Paras King Gyanendra Bir

Bikram Shah Dev Violent Protests

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India’s Dilemmas and Options

Nepal's special status with India The ‘Ugly’ Indian The ‘Indispensable’ Indian India’s response

a. From ‘twin pillar theory’ to ‘people’s will’.

b. Maoist concern

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Dr. Karan SinghShyam Saran

PM Manmohan Singh

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Challenges Ahead

Political parties – consensus building

Maoists – Joining the mainstream?

King – ‘Uncertain Future’

India – ‘Ever Balancer’

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Picture Sources:

National Geographic

Outlook Magazine

Wikipedia