Contango Oil & Gas Company
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Transcript of Contango Oil & Gas Company
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Contango Oil & Gas Company
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Forward Looking InformationThis presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Contango that are intended to be covered by the safe harbor "forward-looking statements" provided by of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, based on Contango’s current expectations and includes statements regarding acquisitions and divestitures, estimates of future production, future results of operations, quality and nature of the asset base, the assumptions upon which estimates are based and other expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions, strategies or statements about future events or performance (often, but not always, using words such as "expects", “projects”, "anticipates", "plans", "estimates", "potential", "possible", "probable", or "intends", or stating that certain actions, events or results "may", "will", "should", or "could" be taken, occur or be achieved). Statements concerning oil and gas reserves also may be deemed to be forward looking statements in that they reflect estimates based on certain assumptions that the resources involved can be economically exploited. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those, reflected in the statements. These risks include, but are not limited to: the risks of the oil and gas industry (for example, operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; risks and uncertainties involving geology of oil and gas deposits; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to future production, costs and expenses;
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Forward Looking Information
potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; health, safety and environmental risks and risks related to weather such as hurricanes and other natural disasters); uncertainties as to the availability and cost of financing; fluctuations in oil and gas prices; risks associated with derivative positions; inability to realize expected value from acquisitions, inability of our management team to execute its plans to meet its goals, shortages of drilling equipment, oil field personnel and services, unavailability of gathering systems, pipelines and processing facilities and the possibility that government policies may change or governmental approvals may be delayed or withheld. Additional information on these and other factors which could affect Contango’s operations or financial results are included in Contango’s other reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investors are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from the projections in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on the estimates and opinions of management at the time the statements are made. Contango does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change.
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Contango’s Core BeliefsFrom Inception
The only competitive advantage in the natural gas and oil business is to be among the LOWEST COST producers
Virtually all the exploration and production industry’s VALUE CREATION occurs through the drilling of successful exploration wells
The goal is only and always value creation PER SHARE
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OK, How Low Cost Is Contango? LOE – All in (Xport, Svc Tax, Workovers, etc.)....
$1.00 Interest/Mcfe – No Debt……………………...…...
$0.00 G & A/Mcfe – 7 people - $8 million………...........
$0.30 “All-in” Cash Costs
$1.30/Mcfe
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And, What About Value Creation?
Find, Drill Aquire Capex (last 3 fiscal years)…..............$544 million
Reserves added ……………................................................400 Bcfe
F & D & A $1.36/Mcfe*
DD&A for 6 months ended December 31, 2008………..$1.12/Mcfe
*F & D Drill Bit $.78/Mcfe*Acquisition Cost $3.10/Mcfe
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Taxes Are By Far Our Biggest Cost
Our costs are about $2.50/mcfe (LOE = $1.30/mcfe; DD&A = $1.12/mcfe)
Absent dry holes (we follow successful efforts accounting), we are profitable down to about $2.25/MMbtu Henry Hub
Assuming $6.40/MMBtu NYMEX (current five year strip) we receive about $6.90/mcfe (1080 BTU gas)
Our pre-tax profit would thus be about $4.40/mcfe
We pay an effective tax rate of about 38% for Federal & State of LA taxes, or $1.70/mcfe
Leaving a net after tax profit for shareholders of about $2.70/mcfe
Through capex – IDC deductions – we can reduce tax rate…..but would rather pay taxes than drill wildcat wells we don’t like
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I’m Out on a Limb, But Bottom Is In
Lower 48 supply of natural gas peaked in Nov 2008 and is now in decline. Demand has bottomed, now increasing
According to Economics 101, when decreasing supply collides with increasing demand.......prices rise
Shale plays are the industry’s future, but need $6.00 gas to do more than “kiss your sister”…. > 15% hurdle rates
Natural gas rig count down 50% - 800 rigs and counting
Balance Sheet strength still demands a premium Opportunity abounds – We prefer buying our stock
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Of Course I’m a Bull For 2010 And Beyond
Natural gas drilling falls off the cliff in 2009– the best cure for low prices is really low prices
Annual natural gas depletion – 25% - 30% and increasing: First year shale gas depletion is 60% - 80% No nukes Increasing constraints on coal; Cap & Trade; TVA Coal
Spill National Nimbyitis – more acreage off-limits/more
permits/less drilling/ less supply Ukraine/Gazprom annual “disputes” Natural gas is a weather commodity - like corn, but
without the subsidies Crude: Weak dollar/volatile world – If you don’t love
Chavez, Putin, et al. you’re not thinking clearly
And the 800 pound gorilla?....No expensing of IDC – If you don’t love our Congress you’re not thinking
clearly
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FY 2009 Capex Program
* If successful at EI 56 West, we will need to spend another $6.4 million to complete.
* The economic equivalent of about a 1/3 for a 1/4 promote: Pay 100% W.I for 75%: 75% x .833 = 62.5%.
THIS CAPEX PROGRAM GENERATES $26 MILLION OF IDC WHICH REDUCES TAXES BY ABOUT $9 MILLION
Well 8/8th DHC Cost Contango DHC W.I.
Net DHC $ Contango NRI(inclusive of REX and COE)
Status
Dutch #4 $15.0 million 47.05 % $ 7.0 million 38.12 % Done
WD 77 $ 7.0 million 100.00 % $ 7.0 million Dry Hole Done
EI 56 W $12.0 million 100.00 % $12.0 million 59.45 % * Drilling
TOTAL $34.0 million $26.0 million
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Operations RecapProduction (BCFE)
Q-1 (A) Q-2 (A) Q-3 (E) Q-4 (P) 5.7 5.6 6.3 8.0Q1/Q2: Impacted by Hurricane Ike and
related downstream shut-ins/curtailments of pipelines/processing plants
Currently flowing at 85 Mmcfed net to Contango
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SEC PV-10 RecapJun. to Mar. Jun. to Mar.
Jun. 30 Sep. 30 Dec. 31 Mar. 31 $ Change % Change
$ / Mcf 14.15$ 7.43$ 5.90$ 3.82$ (10.33)$ -73.00%$ / Bbl (Oil) 142.58$ 103.40$ 42.65$ 47.67$ (94.91)$ -66.57%$ / Bbl (NGL) 98.00$ 70.45$ 31.22$ 34.76$ (63.24)$ -64.53%
$ / Mcfe 15.27 8.83$ 5.92$ 4.42$ (10.85)$ -71.05%
Mmcf 291,568 288,954 287,835 281,742 (9,826) -3.37%MBbl's (Oil) 5,479 5,434 5,304 5,180 (299) -5.46%MBbl's (NGL) 7,439 7,387 7,408 7,239 (200) -2.69%
Mmcfe 369,076 365,880 364,107 356,256 (12,820) -3.47%
Pre-tax PV-10 ('000) 3,183,843$ 1,779,057$ 1,221,330$ 828,701$ (2,355,142)$ -73.97%
Stock price 92.92$ 53.98$ 56.30$ 39.20$ (53.72)$ -57.81%
Fully diluted shares 17,675,413 17,576,959 17,020,847 16,514,147 (1,161,266) -6.57%
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Stock Repurchase Program Since September 1, 2008, we have purchased 1,224,354 shares for $51.8 million
- $ 42.30/ share
We now have 15.8 million shares outstanding and 16.5 million shares fully diluted
Using Mar 31, 2009 reserve report, each share of common stock represents 22 Mcfe/share
To date have purchased 26.3 Bcfe of proved developed reserves in the ground at a price of $2.23/Mcfe
THESE ARE ALL PROVED DEVELOPED…..NO PUD’s
THESE ARE HIGH MARGIN MCFE’S
THESE RESERVES HAVE A +/- 10 R/P
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Net Capital Raised Preferred Series Capital Raised
Seed Capital $5.0 millionSeries A $2.5 millionSeries B $5.0 millionSeries C $8.0 millionSeries D $10.0 millionSeries E $30.0 million Total $60.5 million
Shares Purchased Amount3,945,187 $64.7 million
Average price paid is $16.40 / share
Query: How many publically traded companies have “negative” net capital?
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Run a Screen of E & P Companies with Following Traits
22 Mcfe’s of proved developed reserves per share No debt 7 employees LOE + G&A + INTEREST at $1.30/mcfe Wildcat exploration upside Active share repurchase program Incentive Alignment - Management owns 23% of
Company
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America’s Energy Company MCF IS NATURAL GAS