Consuming the Planet
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Transcript of Consuming the Planet
Consuming the planet: reasons to be hopeful
Adjunct Prof Colin D Butler Health Research Institute, University of Canberra
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University
College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide
BODHI, BODHI Australia @ColinDavdButler
Australasian Society of Lifestyle Medicine
conferenceManly, NSW, September 2017
Propositions:
Evolutionary forces have rewarded humans that are collectively ingenious but also aggressive, not only towards the planet, but to other people, usually in groups.
The same evolutionary forces have generated and rewarded co-operation, on increasing scales.
The challenge for civilisation is to reach a threshold of global co-operation before our options run out and triage strategies lead to a “fortress world” in which human well-being is scarce.
The environmentalist’s “paradox”
Limits to growth and “peak health”
Planetary boundaries, climate change and health
Solutions
Pioneers of ecological economics and planetary health
A social vaccine, technology, lifestyle change, consciousness
Butler, C. D. (2017). "Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health " Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 25: 59-65. free link til 1/11/17 : https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VifV6gsyPQHK5
Raudsepp-Hearne C et al, BioScience 2010
animals – aquifers – ecosystems - forests – fossil fuels – freshwater –habitat – human habitat - phosphate – pollution sinks – rare earths –soil
Artist unidentified
feasting on the planet .. so far, so good..
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https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/gallery/2017/aug/14/how-the-wealthy-live-dubai-rich-set-in-pictures-nick-hannes-bread-circuses#img-5
August 2017http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2017/07/05/WATCH-Truck-MELTS-into-road-as-Kuwait-swelters-in-extreme-heat.html
Kuwait registers record high temperatureJuly 23, 2016
http://www.timeskuwait.com/Times_Kuwait-registers-record-high-temperature
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global population: 0-2017
Limits to Growth (1972): 3.9 bn
Planetary Boundaries (2009): 6.9 bn
Data: Durand, UN, Manning
“checks”
Life expectancy also rising, now >70 years
Limits to growth and “peak health”
Planetary boundaries
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Modelled world economy and environment
• Many scenarios modelled from 1900 to 2100
• Most lead to “overshoot and collapse”
Widely believed to forecast resource scarcity and collapse by year 2000
• leading to false claims that it was wrong
The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth (LTG) (Meadows et al)
Best selling environmental book of 1970s
Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18: 397– 411.Brijnath, B., McMichael, A. J. and Butler, C.D. (2012). Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 486: 191.
Courtesy Graham Turner
Peak health?
Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18: 397– 411.Brijnath, B., McMichael, A. J. and Butler, C.D. (2012). Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 486: 191.
Courtesy Graham Turner
Limits to Growth
Cheap energyPollution sinks
Crop yield increaseBiosphere integrity
ComplexityTolerance & compassion
}}}
all limited
Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
From forecasting and models (1970s) to abundant data and
evidence .. not sufficiently acted on by policy makers, under-
appreciated within academia
1. Persistently high energy price
2. Stagnant economic “growth”
3. Flattened “genuine progress”
4. Return of famines
5. Increasing civil wars
6. “Health for all” a dream
7. Retreat of civilization and strengthening “fortress world”
Butler, Intl Soc Env Epidem, 2013
"Our proposed framework builds on and extends approaches based on limits-to-growth (Meadows et al. 1972, 2004)”
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. et al, (2009). Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2).
Limits to Growth not cited in their better known papers:
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. et al (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461: 472-475.
Steffen, W., K. Richardson, et al (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science347(6223) 1259855.
Butler, C. D. (2017). "Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health " Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 25:59-65. free link til 1/11/17 :
https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VifV6gsyPQHK5
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Data: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt, other
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Burden of
Disease
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (e.g. heat,
injury)
SECONDARY (e.g. vector-
borne diseases, air
pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: “systemic
multiplier”) famine,
conflict, large-scale
migration, economic
collapse
Butler, 2014
Primary
Secondary
Old location
Hurricane Harvey related to climate change because:
1. Sea level rise2. Warmer sea, at depth2. Warmer atmosphere, more rain3. Stalled storm – may be related to wavier Jetstream, Arctic ice melt(AFP Photo/Thomas B. Shea)h
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Extensive US droughts (2012-2013, Ca
2013-14)
– dryness and heat
Data: FAOhttp://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
A complex “tertiary” “eco-social” effect
Drought – probably climate change related
High population growth (though falling), aquifer depletion and dammed rivers in Turkey
Loss of subsidies price shocks
Outside factors
Limited compassion and tolerance
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-sWEupgTFIg4/WRx1BugbLqI/AAAAAAAAlRk/ugeNsz3VMmoPuOVJvJ76rYxkqsRQFzR_QCJoC/w2560-h1700/IMG_2017-01-31-114049.jpg .....انه ابيت الحزن ساكن من سنين الن بيت الفرح أيجاره غالي
SYRIA
WarTrauma, mental and physical
MigrationLoss of infrastructure, education and public health capacity also harms short and long-
term health
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-sWEupgTFIg4/WRx1BugbLqI/AAAAAAAAlRk/ugeNsz3VMmoPuOVJvJ76rYxkqsRQFzR_QCJoC/w2560-h1700/IMG_2017-01-31-114049.jpg انه ابيت الحزن ساكن من سنين الن بيت
.....الفرح أيجاره غالي
“The expense may be considerable, but the
cost of doing nothing is incalculable”
Health in the Greenhouse
Editorial (Lancet, 1989)
Planetary boundaries
silent on social consequences, including
conflict
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Too soon to say?
Massive increase in individual killing power
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Too soon to say?
Massive increase in individual killing power
Violence against
is out of control
Clown fish vivid against
bleached coral, 2016http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-
oz/2016/apr/21/mourning-loomis-reef-the-heart-of-the-great-
barrier-reefs-coral-bleaching-disaster
The Tragic Tale of a Pangolin, the World’s Most Trafficked Animal http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/short-film-showcase/the-tragic-tale-of-a-pangolin-the-worlds-most-trafficked-animal
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Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank
(April 2014)
(Dr) Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a
coherent plan in the fight against climate change
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/03/climate-change-battle-food-head-world-bank
The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating broader global impacts
on property, migration and political stability, as well as food
and water security. …
Mark Carney, 2015
(Governor of the
Bank of England)
Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability.
http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx
Double standards The power of corporations
who shape what we think and are told
“We have 50% of the world’s wealth, but only 6.3%
of its population... we cannot fail to be the object of
envy and resentment. Our real task is to devise a
pattern of relationships which will permit us to
maintain this position of disparity without positive
detriment to our national security...”
Kennan, 1948
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https://geddry.com/2016/03/29/turning-point-climate-fight-ags-unite-target-exxon-crimes/
“Exxon Mobil's response to climate change
is consummate arrogance”
Bill McKibben, 2014
Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American west.
What does big oil have to say about climate change?
35
a social
vaccine
technology
a role for
health
workers
Am I really hopeful?
Solutions
Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)
The Economics of Spaceship Earth
“the only person who believes in
perpetual economic growth is either a
madman or an economist”
UN Human Rights Declaration; Eleanor Roosevelt, 1947
After WWII: hope humanity gained maturity from its then recent, immense suffering
Also Doc Evatt
39From Mary Glendon: “A
World Made New”
US President Harry S. Truman
inaugural address 1949
continue unfaltering support to the UN
we must embark on a bold new program for making the benefits of our scientific advances and industrial progress available for the improvement and growth of underdeveloped areas
Materialism: necessary for well-being, not sufficient. Connection with other people and with nature. Excess materialism harms planet, also ourselves; consider Ebenezer Scrooge
"Even the blind men’s dogs appeared to know him; .. when they saw (Scrooge) coming .. would tug their owners into doorways and up courts; .. wag their tails as though they said, “No eye at all is better than an evil eye, dark master!”Scooge and Marley's ghost,
Illustration: John Leech, 1843
ToxicityPlacebo
Vaccine spectrumsocial vaccine spectrum
Despair
Sufficient bad news to stimulate action
Sufficient good news to stimulate action
The accelerating energy transition
Floating solar farm, China
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/06/09/17/4143879B00000578-4589114-The_floating_plant_was_built_on_top_of_a_lake_where_water_floode-a-63_1497024122044.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIkaJ0ZXAAEe89H.jpg:large
from fossil fuels, industry
Jackson et al, Nature Climate
Change, 2016
CO2 emissions (GtCO22yr-1)
Jackson et al, Nature Climate
Change, 2016
but not from fossil fuels, industry; meat and dairy
CO2 emissions (GtCO22yr-1)
Towards a solution: consciousness
and behaviour
Ditch the car and lose half a stone – The Telegraph, 2014http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11042821/Ditch-the-car-and-lose-half-a-stone-research-shows-public-transport-linked-to-lower-BMI.html
http://www.thegreynomads.com.au/outback-towns-terrorised-by-plague-of-kangaroos/
Eroding the social license
Maules Creek coal mine, NSW Australia 2014https://leard.frontlineaction.org/ipcc-contributor-participates-in-blockade/
Theodore Parker, a 19th century abolitionist who inspired Martin Luther King
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/15/arc-of-universe/
“the ARC of the MoRAl univeRse is long, but it bends towARds justiCe”