Consumer Trends 2012 - English version

Trends Opportunities that come from everything that is happening in consumers’ world!

!2012!

The Insight Point www.juanisaza.com!

!Class of twenty twelve

2012 starts with more questions than certainty, in a climate of economic turmoil, specially in Europe, and with the elections in the US that will capture a great deal of attention during the year. With great expectations about Facebook listing in the Stock Exchange in a year where it would probably be proven that is better to trust in corporations than in nations. In latin america, with great expectations about the elections in Venezuela and Mexico, making the most out of a good economic moment but suffering the negative impact of everything that could happen in other latitudes. With all of this in mind, we present the trend report of The Insight Point. As usual, it is important to say that this report does not have other interest than to generate points of view that get together ideas, actions or advances that trace paths of what consumers are experimenting in their life's, jobs, urban spaces, brands and technology. Identifying, grouping or defining trends has the purpose or letting businesses explore new ideas and lateral thinking. As in past years, maybe the main use of this document is to make brands question opportunities that they might have in front of them in this eight points. Finally, I want to thank everyone that supported this report with their observations and ideas, specially Mario Ponce and Felipe Serrano from DDB. Also everyone that used this report in their strategic planning process during 2011, the more than 12 thousand users that read it on Slideshare and the hundreds that downloaded it, recommended it or tagged it as their favorite. To all of them, thank you so much.

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The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!

!The trends for this year

1. Direct & raw

2. Un-‐categorically 3. Everything is social 4. Obsessive tracking

5. The center is ego

6. Real is real 7. Life is a game

8. Private Value

8! !


!Direct & Raw WE ARE GETTING INTO A WORLD OF CONSUMERS THAT ARE MORE AND MORE INTERESTED IN A REAL EXPERIENCE. PEOPLE SEARCHING TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE SCENES. WITHOUT FILTERS. IT IS NOT THE MOMENT FOR FANTASY OR TO SWEETCOVERED THINGS. THE CITIZEN WANTS TO CONFRONT THE TRUTH WITHOUT AGENTS OR MIDDLEMEN.

For Brands…

A year ago we talked about the average citizen taking power over institutions. We said that they would be censored and criticized thanks to connectivity. Just as we saw in the Middle East: citizens that, in many cases, without the help of traditional media or institutions, used Facebook and Twitter to agree and plan how to overthrow dictatorships that seem impossible to topple. Now the citizen feels that they can have access to reality without filters. What was done before by “agents” (a typical term from the 20th century) can now be done by themselves. To talk about Direct & Raw is to talk about a whole new transparency. Media is needed for the analyzing and compiling of news but maybe it is no longer needed for the access to the sources in an era in which public personas “tweet” directly the news. Employers can have direct feedback of the moral of their employees without the intervention of a consultant http://tinyurl.com/bu7e7s7 and farmers can negotiate directly with buyers http://tinyurl.com/82z8tu5 . Loyal clients are the ones that convincevince skeptics about a brand without the intervention of advertising http://tinyurl.com/6mdqgtk . By this, it is not strange that peer-‐to-‐peer banking appears again http://tinyurl.com/7tzg3p2 . All of this makes it easier the direct connection that, maybe, will go to extremes like a football team that is managed by their fans http://tinyurl.com/3fwhjm3 . The great questioning of institutions that have tried to manage our life will continue because the citizen will feel, in some way, that they are no longer needed. With this we will see more and more critics to central banks, Wall Street, or even the capitalist system http://tinyurl.com/7hnutqx . In a year of elections in USA, we could see the skepticism of citizens toward the “perfect” candidates as well as toward the perfect PowerPoint presentations that dress-‐up everything http://tinyurl.com/649wl27 . Everything that seems covered in sugar, perfectly constructed of transformed by a middleman will be challenged.

To be able to see the brands and companies in a direct way, without secrets and fake appearances, will increase credibility among consumers. Trendwatching calls it “Flawsome” and predicts that brands that put their perfect image aside will win credibility from consumers. And as always: Give part of the control to consumers will give good dividends to whom do it fearlessly.

1!The Insight Point / www.juanisaza.com!

Un-categorically THIS YEAR WE WILL SEE WITH EVEN MORE POWER, HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO TAG THINGS, SEGMENT OR DRAW LINES. THE BETA STATE, DEFINED LAST YEAR, IS NOW EVEN MORE CLEAR: WE LIVE IN A WORLD IN WHICH THINGS NOT ONLY EVOLVE BUT CHANGE THEIR VALUES OR ESSENCE IN A MATTER OF SECONDS.

For brands...

It will get even more obsolete to talk about demographic targets. Psychographics will be impossible to define as immutable values. It will get even more complex to segment products or brands. Brands should avoid establishing with one target, like Lego just did with its new line for girls (http://tinyurl.com/6lwrycd ).

2!More than 10 years have passed since Zygmunt Bauman talked to us about liquid modernity. However we never had seen so clearly that liquid world. Everything change swiftly and what we used to se as immutable, nowadays experience a great change. Changing of places, jobs, spouses, values or sexual orientation. There seem to be no limits in a world where tags don't have a place because everything flows and everything, even what we used to hold as solid truth, melt. In the words of Trendwatching, the great trend for this 2012 is the “Eternal Disruption” as a result of new technologies, innovation and the change of values, that has a lot to do with this liquid world in which it is impossible to put a tag before discovering that everything has changed. We will see how prices drop or products become free for a day http://tinyurl.com/3twlryg everything because brands want to bring new users and because change is the only constant. This year we will see the pop-‐up phenomena growing stronger with restaurants that appear for a few hours http://tinyurl.com/846xb25 and it will not be surprising when whole shopping malls that appear today will be gone by tomorrow http://tinyurl.com/63s2dvj . The debates between connection and disconnection will mark people´s life. Spaces and devices that keep people connected are growing as well as spaces that invite people to disconnect http://tinyurl.com/7hebk8n . It will be impossible to trace the line between television and internet with the popularization of TV sets and websites in which people will watch their favorite series or movies, legally and illegally. To go beyond this particular line will also be proof of this liquid world. Leaders of the world kissing in the last campaign by Benetton and last summers Target ad that showed a child with down-‐syndrome. It is not only an interest to generate controversy, it is the liquid reality in which barriers between pretty and ugly, tender and cruel, violent and pacific, seem to disappear.


!Everything is social CONSUMERS WILL LOOK FOR ACCESS MORE THAN OWNAGE OF THINGS IN CONTRAST TO PAST GENERATIONS WHO´S LIFE WAS GOVERNED BY THE OWNAGE OF GOODS, WE ARE IN FRONT OF A CONSUMER THAT WANTS TO SHARE WITH HIS FRIENDS, CONTACTS AND EVEN STRANGERS

For brands...

Crowdsourcing continues to be relevant and participating continues to be a more important incentive than owning for some social groups. We will see brands and categories open to participation and co-‐creation which would be unthinkable a few years ago. As an example, FiatMio CC (Creative commons) http://tinyurl.com/7pk5krs

3!People continue to use connectivity to make better buying decisions. According to a study by Google in 2011, 79% of smartphone users, use them to buy and share shopping amongst friends. In a way, it is still valid to say that you have not bought it until you have “posted” about it in social media. However, what is interesting now is that Hyper-‐Plural shopping, which we talked about last year, has now turned into a Hyper-‐Plural community. Why buy a bicycle if you can borrow it and then leave it back in an authorized site? Because of the expansion that this initiatives have seen in the world, borrowed or loaned bicycles have turned into an icon of this need to share, and find ways to use less polluting means of transportation. Levi´s has just launched a line of jeans for those that travel by bicycle http://tinyurl.com/7o6hnf8. In various countries different ideas are seen that make life easier for those that have joined this movement http://tinyurl.com/894regm. Why buy something that you could borrow from a friend by just asking in Facebook? Maybe one of the most emblematic cases is Kindle, with its library where now you can loan books http://tinyurl.com/3lafwb3 . There is a social recognition towards everything that sounds like austerity and to avoiding unnecessary spending. Citizens will show themselves more critic of spending and squandering in government and companies. Group buying will continue to be a strong form of saving and efficient buying at all levels, from consumer products to charter flights http://tinyurl.com/7ve2zyr . With exclusive platforms through invitation or through the hyper popular Groupon. It is undeniable that maybe the most important engine of all of this is the value that is given nowadays to sustainability. We will see hundreds of applications that help people to locate who has what other needs. All of this to slow down unnecessary production. So we will also see many initiatives to sell and buy used objects http://tinyurl.com/3psp2j5 or even “non-‐used ideas” http://tinyurl.com/yhrboy9 .


!Obsessive tracking ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT USES THAT PEOPLE FIND IN TECHNOLOGY IN A DAY TO DAY BASIS, PARTICULARLY IN APPLICATIONS, HAS TO DO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRACKING EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENS. MEASURE, CONTROL AND QUANTIFY WILL BE THE VERBS OF 2012.

For brands...

4!The need to measure everything will be seen in people as in institutions. Companies will become more critic on what represents to have a fan or follower in social media. The need to understand the value that generates every invested penny will be a constant. We are in the era of Econometrics and, with this, the solid belief that what cannot be measured, does not exist. The Economist warns that en 2012 the focus of corporations trying to avoid risk will concentrated more in “accountability” than in “creativity”. Penetration of smartphones that in average is close to 20% in Latin America, has caused that applications that link geo-‐referencing and social media, for example, no longer belong to the elite. Las year we talked about consumers desire to control everything with applications that helped them control the quality of sleep, their children development, the consumption and burn of calories, among many things. This year we will see how all of this becomes more popular an even bigger in a group of consumers. And we will see new applications that help collect, in a general way, everyday data. http://tinyurl.com/85kcwj4 . Also tracking so specific that they will help us evaluate our own body: Blood pressure, visual and skin health http://tinyurl.com/7j8z9v8 . Applications that start to complement or even replace visits to the doctor will be more and more popular. Applications will make the life of teachers and school directors easier by helping understand the evolution of students http://tinyurl.com/732y62f or entrepreneurs that will be able to know and reward good conduct amongst employees http://tinyurl.com/6rkuc32 . Alzheimer patients will have a better life thanks to geo-‐referencing shoes that will always show their location http://tinyurl.com/6flyjbt . We will see many ideas about the combination of a place, a person and a time in order to generate information that is both powerful and useful. The smartphone will turn into a vital tool to feel that you have everything “under control”.


The possibility of tracking everything and the fact of feeling that anything can be analyzed all the time, is not always negative. We will see many examples of brands that better-‐up their services, their offers and prices by optimizing the relation between time and space in which consumers access their services. A good example in http://tinyurl.com/7hbeode.

!The center is ego WE HAVE ALWAYS HEARD THAT EVERYONE IS THE CENTER OF THEIR OWN UNIVERSE. BUT NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY, PEOPLE HAD SEEM THE WORLD FROM SUCH A PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE. THE POSSIBILITY OF CUSTOMIZING TASTES, INTERESTS AND SELECTING CONTACTS HELPS EVERYONE TO DESIGN THEIR OWN REALITY.

For Brands...


A year ago we talked about My World is the World. And this year the only thing the only thing there is to say about this is that volume has increased. If a year ago it was interesting to see how consumers where configuring content in order to be informed only of what interested them, now we see a world custom made for anyone becoming more evident and defined. If social media is the new public space, it will never be a space like streets or shopping malls because it is not a collective space, it is an individual space. It will be a social space but custom designed for each one. The fact of going from a society in which mass media chose (or impose) an agenda to the world, to a world where that agenda is selected by citizens, is not a small change. Today you can configure your world in which there is no poverty, iniquity or war. You can also configure a world where only some brands or some categories exist. The peak of the called F-‐commerce to refer to all commerce done inside Facebook is proof of this http://tinyurl.com/6p668ls. It implies more than recommendations in Amazon, since the volume of information of a person, their relationships and interactions is huge, and this will make the offer more personal. This customization that goes to such intimate levels, will let us use our profile to search for the home that will better fit with our life http://tinyurl.com/7b2rtrt , find people with whom we could have better chemistry or an application that will learn our tastes and preferences in order to recommend restaurants with absolute assertiveness http://tinyurl.com/5smlef2 . This year we will see new and impressive examples of how information about our life becomes actionable and useful. From there that it will not be exaggerated to say that the world will get configured to our measures and that Facebook and our mobile applications will get to know us better than our own family.

A few years ago, the big challenge for brands was to recollect data. This year, however, we will see that the challenge will be to use this data in a creative way. In the Cannes Advertising Festival we will see interesting brand ideas that have transformed data about consumers into content in an individual scale that helps him, connects him or simply entertain him.

!Real is real WHILE THE VIRTUAL WORLD THAT AUGMENTS THE REAL WORLD IS GROWING, WE WILL SEE MANY CASES IN WHICH CONSUMERS WANTS TO GO BACK TO WHAT IS REAL, TO ORIGINAL VERSIONS, TO THE ANALOG, TO THE ANTIQUE. IT COULD BE NOSTALGIA, BUT IT IS ALSO THE RESULT OF A LOGICAL SATURATION OF A WORLD FULL OF BYTES.

For Brands...


That old idea of ON/OFF in which the real world and the virtual world where a continuous line, is no longer a trend. Now, it is everyday life. That world surrounds us and it is impossible for many to approach the real world without virtual help. Just as we lost the ability to make mental arithmetic calculations thanks to the calculator, very soon we will be unable to memorize a route because that task will be left to Google Maps or our GPS. In a world that starts to depend on the virtual in order to live the real. It is not weird that original versions, retro stores and the taste for the vintage start to pop-‐up everywhere. In the era of gaming and tablets, Monopoly decided to launch a replica of their original game in a wood box http://tinyurl.com/7epbob8 . At the same time will see many initiatives to return to the use of 35 mm cameras in an era where they seem as an anachronism in front digital photography http://tinyurl.com/3ctvggs . It is this interest for the real what has made department stores like the british Selfridges to put on their shelves the seal of “genuine vintage” in an important number of original vintage objects. That desire to own what we owned before everything came from China and was mass-‐produced or an imitation, will bring a lot of opportunities for brands and companies. According to The Economist, bosses will find out that home-‐office has been disastrous for corporate culture and will look again for face to face jobs. In a world in which expressing affection was replaced in many cases by clicking in the “like” button, today we live in the nostalgia for the analog. Putting a megaphone on a street so that people shout-‐out instead of “posting” is a clear sample of this interest from consumers for more authentic experiences http://tinyurl.com/3bdefy4 . Maybe Occupy Wall Street or Spain´s outraged has something to do with nostalgia for the French may. Without a doubt it is more than that. But in a world full of social media, 4.7 instead of 6 degrees http://tinyurl.com/76uk68n , it looks like there is a need to join forces face to face in order to change the world.

The big opportunity for brands could be in creativity that is born out of nostalgia and also out of revelry. In Singapore, a series of coffee shops created the BeDisloyal card, in order to give points to those that went to traditional coffee shops and not chains (http://tinyurl.com/6py98yz). Do not forget the power that brand activations have with real real actions in real spaces.

!Life is a game MUCH HAS BEEN SAID ABOUT THE EXPANSION THAT GAMING WILL LIVE IN OUR LIFETIME AND IN THE LIFE OF BRANDS. MAYBE WHAT IS MORE RELEVANT IS THAT IT WILL STOP BEING AN ACTIVITY AND NOW WILL ALSO BE A TOOL TO LEARN, INTERACT AND MAKE REAL LIFE EASIER.

For Brands...


Everything is a game, like we said last year, today this could not be more relevant. 67% of smartphone users have downloaded applications related to games, says a study conducted by Nielsen. According to Time, in 2012, 50% of users that accessed Facebook did it to play. So, in August when Facebook reaches 1 billion users, they will also be consolidating the biggest group of gamers in history. Of the many collected observations in which gaming has different roles, it is detected that gaming also has an education role. It is corroborated with applications and real life experiments that gaming has a great didactic power not only to entertain but also to motivate employees http://tinyurl.com/6wl4sjm and to learn sciences in school http://tinyurl.com/3mfmqtt . Maybe the most interesting advance in gaming is that they are seen less as games and more as part of real life. That is why the Situationist, censured by Apple, is no interesting http://tinyurl.com/4oemngd . The dividing line between reality and game is the great transformation in our thinking and in the vision that man has traditionally given to gaming as something in the border real life. Graphics on game consoles have permitted that games are felt less as recreational activities and more as real entertainment http://tinyurl.com/86etkbc . And we will see how equipment that once was used to play is now part of other territories, like a british company that uses Kinect to study the shopping behavior of people http://tinyurl.com/blavmpx . It is because of this that we will see more effort in tech companies to expand the limits of their devices that work with gesture recognition in order to make them part of our lives. The same thing happens with voice that will be more and more useful. “Voice recognition is the new QWERT” says Alexander Ljung, founder of Soundcloud.

In the last year, there have been many great cases of the usage of games by brands. Maybe the great opportunity now is to see games not as games and to explore the limits with real life. The usage of geo-‐referencing or augmented reality can extend the brand experience beyond the limits of virtuality and win differentiation by involving the life of people.

!Private Value THIS YEAR THE CONCERN FOR PRIVACY AND SECURITY WILL GROW AS MORE AND MORE PARTS OF OUR LIFE (INCLUDING MONEY) GO THROUGH DIGITAL PLATFORMS. FACEBOOK AND GOOGLE+ WILL CONTINUE TO GROW BUT NOT WITH BLIND USERS BUT WITH CRITIC USERS THAT PAY ATTENTION TO THEIR RIGHTS.

For Brands...


The concern for the concentration of information about people that some platforms have will increase. This will surely cause a lot of challenging: Facebook as owner of all personal information and connections, Google of searches, Amazon and Apple of preferences. In 2012 there will be a lot of talk of who will be able to lead new spaces in television (Google, Apple, Amazon?). Also about who would be the leader in pays through mobile, where there is no clear owner. Apple, Google and Nokia hand in hand with Microsoft, but also banks and credit card companies. As digital platforms involve more and more of people life, the worry and restlessness will grow. According to Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Officer of Facebook, the growth of people shared information will be accompanied with an attitude of carefulness about what is being shared http://tinyurl.com/7xhhzh4 , even more as voice and face recognizance schemes http://tinyurl.com/y8kztn3 that could raise questions about the risks for people´s privacy. So, this will be a year where laws will be discussed (in those countries where they have not been approved) and will be implemented and citizens will be taught about their rights (those in which there have been laws in regard to). Examples will come out of platforms that understand the worries of people about privacy and about the use of information http://tinyurl.com/6wtvmkc and applications to save and protect content, profiles and preferences. Many will question social media and the use they give to conversation data and “privacy will capture more attention as users become aware of how much information from their personal and professional life they are involuntarily giving out in social media” just as Sysomos blog points out in their predictions for 2012 http://tinyurl.com/7dev4xv.

There is no doubt that the big opportunity for brands will be in a proactive attitude in front of users doubts in regard to the information that is being kept and used. Talking about privacy with an ample knowledge and offering spaces for questions could be one of the functions that give more credibility to community managers among participants of brand communities.

!For more info...

The compilation of trends here included is the result of a work of capturing, filtrating and evaluating of many direct and indirect sources. Among them: www.iconoculture.com www.trendhunter.com www.thecoolhunter.net www.trendoriginal.com www.trendwatching.com www.buzzfeed.com www.luckie.com www.economist.com www.springwise.com www.time.com www.trendcentral.com www.wired.com www.brandchannel.com www.blog.sysomos.com To consult more sources: http://www.delicious.com/juanisaza Tags: trends, trendspotting, consumer, marketing

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!Juan Isaza

Strategic Planning VP in the Mexican branch of DDB and director of Social Media Lab for DDB Latina. Since 2008 he is part of Planning Futures Group, a group with the task of creating and implementing of strategic tools that are used by DDB offices throughout the world. He writes regularly for his blog www.juanisaza.com as well as for the Colombian newspaper Portafolio. Twitter: @juanisaza Previous reports can be consulted in www.slideshare.net/juanisaza This document can be reproduced partially or completely as long as the source and the link be provided.

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Consumer Trends 2012 - English version

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Transcript of Consumer Trends 2012 - English version