CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED CHANNELS · 2020. 6. 5. · Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand,...

June 5, 2020

CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED CHANNELS

COVID-19 Impact

France, Germany, Greece, Italy,

Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, UK, U.S.

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Executive Summary

• As more countries in Europe and the United States begin to loosen COVID-19 restrictions, consumer spend

patterns remain mostly unchanged – this is reflected in consumer purchases in France, Germany, Greece,

Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, UK and the U.S.

• In most geographies, sales remain elevated for edible categories, while demand for nonedible products vary

across countries, e.g., growth for paper products remains high in the U.S., but less so elsewhere, while Beauty

is strong in Netherlands and New Zealand, but declining in other countries.

• E-commerce continues to show strong growth over the last year in the U.S., Italy, France and Spain. After share

shifted more to e-commerce in the initial stages of the pandemic, it has remained at a steady elevated level.

• In the U.S., consumers continue to make larger more pantry stocking trips than a year ago. At the same time,

consumers have relaxed trip frequency slightly, starting to return to small trips vs. prior weeks of the pandemic.

• Loosened restrictions in some areas are having very marginal impact. New Zealand exhibits a softer growth

level of ~10% (vs. 20%) following wider reopening measures. Meanwhile, U.S. states that reopened earlier have

marginally softer trends in non-beverage edible categories than the rest of the U.S.


Document Contents

• Market Context and Conditions

• Consumer Spending Results by

Category, Market and Channel

• Deep Dive:

– E-Commerce Results in the U.S.,

Italy, France and Spain

– Shopping Behavior in the U.S.

– Impact of Loosening Restrictions

in the U.S. and New Zealand

• Appendix


Countries are at Different Points in the Crisis and are Dealing

With Different Levels of Infection During this Analysis Period

Cumulative # of Confirmed Cases as of 6.1.2020

Total Past 24 hrs Deaths

239,801 201 29,045

1,757,522 23,482 103,544

274,766 1,936 38,489

1,154 - 22

46,422 185 5,956

181,815 333 8,511

148,524 88 28,746

233,019 355 33,415

2,917 2 175

Cases Confirmed

Source: World Health Organization

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

3,000,000

May 3

Apr

26

France

Mar

22

Mar

1

Mar

8

Mar

15

Apr

5

Apr

12

Jun 1

Germany

NZ

Apr

19

Greece

10-M

ay

Spain

U.S.M

ar

29

UK

Italy

17-M

ay

24-M

ay

U.S. | Mar 21

"Shelter in Place"

orders for CA, CT, IL,

NJ, & NY

Germany | Mar 15

Borders to

neighboring countries

closed;

all schools closed 2

days before

Italy| Apr 14

Begins to open up small

stores

U.S. | Mar 16Many schools,

restaurants, businesses

close in impacted

areas

UK/NL/NZ | Mar 23

Non-essential

businesses close

Netherlands

France | Mar 13

Ban gatherings

of 100+ people

U.S. | Mar 11

Europe travel ban

Italy | Mar 9

All non-

essential

activities

shut down

Germany | Mar 22

National restrictions

on activities

US| Apr 27

Some States to open up

Restaurants at limited

capacity


Markets are Reaching Stable State of ~10% Growth;

Future Shifts will Likely be Driven by Changing Regulations

Week Ending February 9 – May 24, 2020

Value Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Source: IRI POS Data Ending May 24, 2020

7%-21%

9%

70%

10%

12%13%21%

10%3%

96%

-29%

7%

3/152/23 5/242/9 2/16 3/1 3/223/8 3/29 4/5

50%

5/104/12 4/19 4/26

75%

5/3 5/17-50%

-25%

0%

25%

100%

11%

Netherlands

Germany

UK

U.S.

NZ

Spain

Italy

Greece

France

Stockpiling begins


Edible Has Stabilized at a Higher Growth Rate

Than Nonedible Due to Replenishment

Nonedible Edible

-1%

-8%-5%

8%5%

9%

14%

-21% -22%

50%

14%

-25%

50%

0%

25%

4 Weeks

Ending

2/23

4 Weeks

Ending

3/22

4 Weeks

Ending

1/26

4 Weeks

Ending

4/19

4 Weeks

Ending

5/17

US

Greece

UK

NZ

Italy

France

Germany

Spain

Netherlands

Pre- COVID-19 Stockpile Replenishment

YTD Chg.vs. YA

17.3%

19.2%

10.4%

13.9%

3.5%

2.7%

5.2%

4.0%

-8.7%

11%9%

14%

20%

13%

20%

16%18%

3%0%

-25%

25%

50%

4 Weeks

Ending

2/23

4 Weeks

Ending

3/22

4 Weeks

Ending

1/26

4 Weeks

Ending

4/19

4 Weeks

Ending

5/17

US

Germany

NZ

Spain

UK

Italy

Netherlands

France

Greece

YTD Chg.vs. YA

13.7%

16.7%

16.8%

13.3%

11.7%

7.3%

9.1%

8.6%

13.3%

Pre- COVID-19 Stockpile Replenishment

Note: YTD Week Ending 1/5/20-5/24/20 unless noted; France YTD WE 1/12/20-5/17/20; Greece YTD WE thru 5/17/20; Germany YTD WE 1/19/20-5/24/20; Spain YTD WE 2/9/20-5/24/20

Source: IRI POS Data Ending May 17, 2020

4 Weeks Ending January 26 – May 17, 2020

Value Sales % Change vs. Year Ago


Italy France Germany Netherlands NZ UK U.S. Spain Greece

TOTAL STORE 8.4% 6.5% 9.9% 15.6% 17.1% 10.9% 17.4% 9.3% 6.0%

Total

NONEDIBLE-1.0% -8.2% -4.9% 13.6% 7.5% 5.1% 9.5% -22.2% 13.5%

Total EDIBLE 10.7% 9.5% 14.4% 15.9% 19.6% 12.8% 19.9% 17.8% 3.1%

Paper Products 1.2% -3.4% -17.7% 6.3% -12.6% -5.8% 23.4% -0.7% -9.0%

Home Care 17.3% 7.1% -1.1% 12.0% 11.2% 8.4% 21.1% 9.2% 7.1%

OTC Healthcare 217.4% 43.3% -5.9% 0.0% -14.2% -5.1% -4.0% -24.2% 39.4%

Personal Care 0.8% -22.3% -11.9% 32.4% 10.7% 7.1% 8.3% -33.9% 4.0%

Pet Food + Care -0.7% -3.4% 0.9% 0.0% 6.3% -4.8% 1.0% -2.4% 1.2%

Gen Merchandise -26.1% 18.5% 16.0% 22.1% 9.3% 20.8% -27.7% 25.3%

Cosmetics -32.9% -50.7% -1.0% 29.7% 41.2% -8.1% -8.0% -74.1% -5.6%

Beverage 7.9% -1.1% 8.5% 12.4% 13.7% 4.1% 8.5% 6.6% 0.3%

Packaged Food 10.9% 10.6% 13.7% 11.6% 12.9% 17.3% 19.4% 18.5% 0.4%

Alcohol 16.5% 9.7% 10.8% 30.3% 38.6% 29.1% 32.9% 34.3% -0.6%

Baby Food + Care -17.7% -12.1% -18.7% -11.4% -12.0% -14.3% -5.1% -26.6% -14.8%

Dairy 18.7% 13.4% 16.1% 12.1% 17.0% 20.1% 27.8% 14.4% 12.3%

Frozen Foods 33.4% 23.2% 23.5% 30.3% 41.0% 29.2% 37.7% 31.6% 17.1%

Fresh Foods 5.1% 9.2% 26.9% 4.4% 18.8% 4.5% 17.5% 19.5% 19.7%

LEGEND

Edible Segment Trends are Mostly Consistent Across

Countries, While Demand for Nonedible Segment Varies

% Change Most Recent

Quad Week vs. Year Ago,

Based on Local Currency

50%+

20% to 50%

10% to 20%

0% to 5%

-20% to 0%

5% to 10%

<-20%

Note: Exact product categorization varies slightly by country. Source: IRI POS data 4 Weeks Ending May 17, 2020 vs year ago

ED

IBLE

NO

NE

DIB

LE

Addition of COVID-19 related health items,

such as masks increasing OTC growth

in some countries


OTC Healthcare, Frozen Foods, and Dairy

Remain the Fastest Growing SegmentsItaly

Nonedible Edible

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS data Ending May 17, 2020

1%

17%

-1%

-26%

-33%

0%

-50%

50%

250%

157% 217%55%

157%

OTC Healthcare

Pet Food + Care

Personal Care

Home Care

Paper Products

General Merch.

Cosmetics

8%11%16%

-18%

19%

32%33%

5%0%

-50%

25%

-25%

50%

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Frozen Foods

Beverage

Alcohol

Dairy

Packaged Food

Fresh Foods

Baby Food + Care

Stockpile

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Stockpile

4 Week Periods Ending January 26 – May 17, 2020

€ Sales % Change vs. Year AgoItaly Has Codified Additional OTC Health Products Related

to COVID-19, Including Masks and Related Personal

Appliances, Upsizing the Category vs. Previous Releases


Nonedible Edible

Sales Across Nonedible is Decelerating Other Than

COVID-19 Related Items; Edible Growth Trends Continue


€ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

France

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Ending May 17, 2020

-50% -50%

59%

-3%

7%

43%

-22%

-3%

-51%

-25%

0%

75%

25%

50%

OTC Healthcare

Home Care

Pet Food + Care

Paper Products

Personal Care

Cosmetics

-1%

33%

11%10%

-12%

13%23%

9%

75%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

Frozen Foods

Fresh Foods

Dairy

Beverage

Alcohol

Packaged Food

Baby Food + Care

OTC Growth Driven by

Masks and Hand Sanitizer

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

3 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

3 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Stockpile Stockpile


Nonedible Edible

Edible Sales Look to be Stabilizing at Elevated

Levels; Nonedible Remains in Decline




Germany

79%

-18%

-1%

-6%-12%

1%

19%

-1%

General Merch.

Cosmetics

Pet Food + Care

Home Care

OTC Healthcare

Personal Care

Paper Products

8%

42%

14%11%

-30%

-19%

16%23%27%

Fresh Foods

Dairy

Packaged Food

Frozen Foods

Alcohol

Beverage

Baby Food + Care

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

2 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

2 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Stockpile Stockpile

75%

-25%

25%

0%

50%

0%

-25%

25%

50%

75%


Nonedible Edible

Edible Sales Remain Elevated Post Stockpiling, While Most

Nonedible Categories Have Returned to Normal or are Declining


£ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago


4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Stockpile Stockpile

UnitedKingdom

75%

-6%

8%

-5%

7%-5%

9%

-8%

75%

-25%

25%

0%

50%General Merch.

Home Care

OTC Healthcare

Personal Care

Cosmetics

Pet Food + Care

Paper Products

4%

17%

29%

49%

-14%

20%

29%

4%0%

-25%

25%

50%

75%

2%

Alcohol

Frozen Foods

Fresh Foods

Packaged Food

Dairy

Beverage

Baby Food + Care


Nonedible Edible

Sales Trends Continued Over the Last Few Weeks

Across Segments in Both Edible and Nonedible


$ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies; Hair Care has been realigned from cosmetics to personal care. Source: IRI POS Data Ending May 17, 2020

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Stockpile Stockpile

UnitedStates

96%

23%21%

-4%

8%1%

21%

-8%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

100%

75%

Pet Food + Care

Paper Products

General Merch.

Home Care

Personal Care

OTC Healthcare

Cosmetics

8%

19%

33%

-5%

28%

44%

38%

17%

100%

50%

-25%

0%

25%

75%

Frozen Foods

Alcohol

Dairy

Fresh Foods

Packaged Food

Beverage

Baby Food + Care


Grocery Continues to Outpace MULO Since Peak Stockpiling,

While Convenience Sales Slowly Grow Back to Normal



13%16%

19%

18% 7% 15%4% 4% 3% 12%

90%

77%

28% 34%31%

18%

36%

27% 27%23%

4% 1%

-6% -5%

5%0%

25%

75%

4/123/15 5/33/22 3/29

100%

4/5 4/19 5/104/26 5/172/9 3/1

50%

2/232/16 3/8

1% 6%

5%

19%

69%64%

-1%2%

19%

5%

23%

-9%

Stockpiling begins

UnitedStates

Source: IRI POS data WE 5/17/20 / Note: MULO includes large format (Grocery, Mass, WM, Club xCostco, Dollar, DeCA); C-Store includes both chains and independent, does not include fuel sales

MULO

Convenience

Grocery


Nonedible Edible

Topline Private Label Share Increased Post-COVID-19;

Nonedible Was Impacted More, But Slowed in Last Few Weeks


PL $ Share & Share Point Change vs. YA

19.1 19.2 19.6 20.1 19.1

0.6 0.71.1

1.5

0.4

-2

0

2

0

20

40

4 Weeks Ending 04-

19-20

4 Weeks Ending 01-

26-20

PL Share

4 Weeks Ending 03-

22-20

Pt Chg vs. YA

4 Weeks Ending 02-

23-20

4 Weeks Ending 05-

17-20

Share Change Share

19.4 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.8

0.3 0.3 0.20.4 0.3

-2

0

2

0

20

40

4 Weeks Ending 03-

22-20

4 Weeks Ending 02-

23-20

4 Weeks Ending 01-

26-20

Pt Chg vs. YAPL Share

4 Weeks Ending 04-

19-20

4 Weeks Ending 05-

17-20

Share Change Share

UnitedStates

Source: IRI POS data Ending May 17, 2020 for MULO (Multi-Outlet excluding Convenience)


Nonedible Edible

Sales Across Categories Stabilize; Alcohol is Accelerating

4 Week Periods Ending Jan 26 – May 17, 2020



Spain

68%

-1%9%

-24%

-34%

-2%

-28%

-74%

-25%

-75%

50%

-50%

0%

25%

75%

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

3 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

Home Care

OTC Healthcare

Paper Products

Pet Food + Care

General Merch.

Personal Care

Cosmetics

7%

19%

34%

-27%

14%

32%

19%

-75%

50%

-50%

75%

0%

-25%

25%

3 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Alcohol

Frozen Foods

Beverage

Fresh Foods

Dairy

Packaged Food

Baby Food + Care

StockpileStockpile


in U.S., Italy,

France & Spain


15k

3%

U.S. E-Commerce Sales Has Leveled Out

in the Second 4 Weeks Since COVID-19

Dollar % Change vs. YA, # COVID-19 Cases

0%

39%

16% 19%

33%

73% 75%

32%24%

52%

68% 71%

37%30%

65%

85% 85%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

4 Weeks Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks Ending

02-23-20

26%

56%

4 Weeks Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks Ending

05-17-20

695k

1,432k

E-Com %

share of total16.2% 15.7% 14.7% 18.7% 19.4%

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, In Store from Total MULO for same 204 categories. Case count from Worldometer as of May 17, 2020

In Store Online - Edible Only

Online Online - Nonedible Only

# COVID-19 Cases


Panic Buying in

Brick & Mortar

After Initial Panic Buying in Stores, Consumers Have Shifted, Held

a Significant Share of Post-COVID-19 CPG Spend to E-Commerce

Total E-Commerce Share of Omni-Channel

29.7% 29.6%27.1%

36.1% 36.8%

16.2% 15.7% 14.7%

18.7% 19.4%

7.8% 7.4% 7.0%9.1% 9.2%

4 Weeks Ending 01-26-20 4 Weeks Ending 02-23-20 4 Weeks Ending 03-22-20 4 Weeks Ending 05-17-204 Weeks Ending 04-19-20

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories

Nonedible

Total

Edible


Nonedible Edible

E-Commerce Share Has Increased in Most CPG Areas

Except in Minimally Low Share Areas, Such as Fresh Foods

E-Commerce Share of Omni-Channel

Packaged Food

Baby Food+ Care

Beverage

Frozen Foods

Fresh Foods

Dairy

Cosmetics

Pet Food+ Care

Personal Care

OTC Healthcare

General Merch

Home Care

Paper Products

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories

40%

53%

37%

43%

25%

31%

12%14%

39%

45%

26%

36%

17%

21%

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

12% 13%

8% 10%9% 11%

5% 5%

3%4%

30%

38%

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

UnitedStates


Across CPG, Home Shipment Has Outpaced Growth

of Other Types of E-Commerce in the Last 4 Weeks

Share of CPG E-Commerce Dollar Sales by Fulfillment Type

77.7% 77.8% 77.1% 77.9% 79.4%

15.3% 15.7% 15.8% 15.3% 14.2%

7.0% 6.6% 7.1% 6.9% 6.5%

4 Weeks Ending 05-17-204 Weeks Ending 04-19-204 Weeks Ending 01-26-20 4 Weeks Ending 02-23-20

Delivery

Home Shipment

4 Weeks Ending 03-22-20

Click & Collect

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories and retailers where fulfillment can be determined.

Note: Delivery is delivery to home within a time slot, e.g., Peapod, Instacart, Amazon Fresh. Click & Collect is pick up in store or parking lot. Home Shipment is delivery in box via third party delivery company (UPS, FedEx), e.g., Amazon.com.


Nonedible Edible

Note: Delivery is delivery to home within a time slot, e.g., Peapod, Instacart, Amazon Fresh. Click & Collect Is pick up in store or parking lot. Home Shipment is delivery in box via third party delivery company (UPS, FedEx), e.g., Amazon.com.

Home Shipment Has Picked Up Slightly

More For Edible in Recent Weeks

Share of CPG E-Commerce Dollar Sales by Fulfillment Type

92.2% 92.6% 91.0% 92.6% 93.2%

5.7% 5.5% 6.5% 5.2%2.1% 1.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0%

4 Weeks Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks Ending

03-22-20

Click &Collect

4 Weeks Ending

02-23-20

4.8%

4 Weeks Ending

05-17-20

HomeShipment

Delivery

43.3% 42.4% 44.1% 45.4% 46.3%

38.0% 40.0% 38.0% 37.5% 36.6%

18.6% 17.7% 17.8% 17.1% 17.1%

4 Weeks Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks Ending

02-23-20

HomeShipment

Delivery

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories and retailers where fulfillment can be determined.

Click &Collect


Italy E-Commerce Growth Has Leveled Out With

Share of Sales Remaining at 2x Earlier Levels

CPG E-Commerce Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

# COVID-19 Cases

4% 11% 18% 17% 19% 17% 14%-15%

13% 11% 19% 10% 9%

292%

180% 180% 174%

74%

232%

376%438%

476%412%

659%

507%553% 546%

263%

132% 149% 152% 148%

-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1-Mar

43%

16-Feb 8-Mar

225K

12-Apr23-Feb

30%

249%

15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar 5-Apr

486%

19-Apr 26-Apr

160%

3-May 10-May

107%

24-May

0K0K 2K 7K

25K

176K

54K

92K

125K

152K

218K

195K209K

23%

535%

638%

229K

17-MayeCom %

share of total1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

Italy

Source: IRI Panel online, Dates reflect Monday, 17 February through Sunday 24 May, 2020. Worldometer as of 6/2/20.

In-Store

E-Commerce Home Delivery / Shipment

COVID-19 Cases (k)

Click & Collect

Note: 1. eCommerce Includes select eCommerce retailers including Amazon, other local eRetailers and the eCommerce operations of traditional Brick & Mortar retailers Home delivery / shipment: goods delivered at doorstep of purchaser, Click & Collect: purchaser submit order online and collects in store, accounts for 9% of total eCommerce.

2. Category data reflected in the chart is for categories that are sold both in-store and through eCommerce; excluding general merchandising categories


6%

In France, Ecommerce Has Remained at an Elevated

Share of CPG Sales for the Last Eight Weeks

CPG E-Commerce Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

# COVID-19 Cases

1% 1%

9%

40%

31%

2% 2%11%

-6%

4%

-8%

2% 6%13%

5%14%

62%

75%

65%

77%

96%88%

84%78%

70%

-25

0

25

50

75

100

16-Feb 3-May

122.9k

15-Mar

1.1k

1-Mar 22-Mar8-Mar 19-Apr23-Feb

6%

29-Mar 26-Apr12-Apr 10-May 17-May

67.8k

30%

129.5k

92.8k

53%

0.1k 5.4k14.3k

37.1k

110.7k

137.0k 140.0k

5-Apr

eCom %

share of total6.8% 6.5% 7.4% 8.0% 7.7% 8.5% 10.7% 11.2% 10.5% 10.7% 10.8% 10.8% 10.3% 10.2%

France

Note: eCommerce includes Click & Collect, some Home Delivery providers (Home Delivery = small portion of sales). Excludes Amazon / Source: IRI POS Data WE 5/3/20. Worldometer as of 6/2/20

In-Store

E-Commerce

COVID-19 Cases (k)


Similarly In Spain, E-Commerce Sales Accelerated

Post COVID-19 Stock Up and Remain at an Elevated Level

CPG Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

# COVID-19 Cases

11%

-2% -5%

79%

9% 11% 18% 10% 3%14% 10% 10%

49%

20%4%

22% 54% 33%51%

76%

215%

101%112%

129%116%

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

16-Feb

4%

10-May23-Feb

24.9k

1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar

191.7k

7%

22-Mar

84%

11%

5-Apr

0.6k

12-Apr29-Mar 19-Apr

69%72.2k

26-Apr 24-May3-May 17-May

230.7k

0.0k

0.0k 0.0k 7.8k

124.7k

161.9k

219.8k 216.6k 223.6k235.3k

Easter

Peak Stock-

Up Week

eCom %

share of total1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 3.1% 2.8% 3.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3%

Spain

Note: eCommerce includes Brick & mortar retailers that deliver online orders to customer homes and Amazon / Source: IRI POS Data WE 5/24/20. Worldometer as of 6/2/20

In-Store

E-Commerce

COVID-19 Cases (k)


Dollar Sales

% Chg. vs. YA

Trips per Buyer

% chg. vs. YA

Buyers

% chg. vs. YA

Units per Trip

% chg. vs. YA

Price Per Unit

% chg. vs. YA

1%4%

36%

16%

22%

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

03/22/20

4 WE

05/17/20

Actuals ($B)

1%5%

25%

-4%

3%

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

03/22/2015.4 15.8 19.2 15.1 15.8

Actuals

Actuals

Actuals (M)

Actuals

124.5 124.9 124.9 125.0 125.0

9.5 9.3 10.2 11.0 10.3$3.42 $3.41 $3.46 $3.50 $3.62

0% 1% 1% 1% 1%

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

03/22/20

-3% -3%

6%

15%11%

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

03/22/20

4 WE

04/19/20

2%2% 1%

4%6%

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

03/22/20

$62.4 $62.8 $84.4 $72.6 $73.9

Over the Last Four Week Period, Consumers Continue

to Make Larger Trips and Are Relaxing Trip Frequency

Total U.S. All Outlets CPG Consumer Purchasing Dynamics

UnitedStates

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel 4 WE 5/17/20. All Outlets.


Pantry Stocking Remains Elevated, But Consumers Increased

Smaller Trips Slightly vs. the Prior Four Weeks of the Pandemic

80

(17%)

71

(14%)

76

(15%)75

(16%)

74

(16%)

254

(53%)

4 WE

01/26/20

80

(16%)

266

(54%)

4 WE

02/23/20

76

(15%)

95

(16%)

94

(16%)

98

(16%)

312

(52%)

4 WE

03/22/20

71

(15%)

77

(16%)

232

(49%)

4 WE

04/19/20

Fill In

88

(18%)

87

(17%)

245

(49%)

4 WE

05/17/20

Pantry Stocking

Special Purpose

479

Quick Trip

493

599

472495

89

(19%)

Fill In

3.5

(22%)3.4

(21%)Quick Trip

6.1

(39%)

Special Purpose2.9

(18%)

3.3

(21%)

6.1

(39%)

4.2

(20%)

4 WE

01/26/20

3.2

(20%)

3.1

(17%)

4.3

(20%)2.9

(18%)

4 WE

02/23/20

15.6

8.9

(42%)

3.7

(18%)

4 WE

03/22/20

8.5

(47%)

3.2

(18%)

15.73.3

(18%)

3.5

(19%)

4 WE

04/19/20

8.4

(45%)

21.1

3.3

(18%)

3.4

(18%)

4 WE

05/17/20

Pantry Stocking

18.1 18.5

Stockpile Stockpile

UnitedStates

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel 4 WE 5/17/20. All Outlets.

AVG. WEEKLY TRIP COUNT BY TYPE (M) AVG. WEEKLY DOLLAR SALES ($B) BY TRIP TYPE


-2% -2% 8% 25% 23%

Edible Continues to Drive Larger Baskets, While

Nonedible Basket Size is Similar to Pre-COVID-19

% Change vs YA

% Change vs YA

2.3 2.33.0

2.4 2.5

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

03/22/20

$21.22 $20.36 $21.65 $21.09 $21.43

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

03/22/20

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

04/19/20

3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.5

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

03/22/20

3.0 3.13.7

3.0 3.1

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

03/22/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

05/17/20

9.2 9.0 9.9 10.8 10.2

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

05/17/20

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

03/22/20

$25.85 $25.55 $28.36$32.11 $31.17

4 WE

04/19/20

4 WE

01/26/20

4 WE

03/22/20

4 WE

02/23/20

4 WE

05/17/20

-4% -3% 7% 17% 14%2% 6% 27% -2% 4%

3% 0% 4% 3% 3%-1% 1% 24% -1% 8% 0% -2% 3% 0% -2%

UnitedStates

Note: Pre Stock-Up 3/1-3/8, Peak Stock-Up 3/15-3/22, Post Stock-Up 3/29-4/19 / Source: IRI National Consumer Panel 4 WE 5/17/20. All Outlets.

AVERAGE WEEKLY

TRIPS PER BUYER

AVERAGE WEEKLY

DOLLARS PER TRIP

AVERAGE WEEKLY

UNITS PER TRIP

NONEDIBLE

EDIBLE


Packaged Food’s Share of Basket Has

Come Down Since Peak-COVID-19 Levels

Average Basket

2.5 (8%)

2.5 (7%)

1.3 (4%)

2.2

(7%)

3.0 (9%) 7.0 (22%)2.1

(6%)

4 WE 04/19/20

0.8 (3%)

0.7 (2%)

2.5 (8%) 3.0 (9%)4 WE 01/26/20

1.3

(4%)

2.4

(8%)

1.4

(5%)

1.9

(6%)

8.2 (24%)

3.0 (9%) 7.3 (23%)

1.9

(5%)

2.4 (8%) 3.0 (9%)4 WE 02/23/20

2.7

(8%)

2.3

(6%)

2.3

(7%)2.9 (8%)

0.3 (1%)

3.2 (9%)

0.9 (2%)

4 WE 03/22/201.4

(4%)

2.1

(6%)

1.2 (3%)

1.4

(4%)

2.3

(6%)

$36.7

2.1

(6%)

0.3 (1%)

3.5 (9%) 9.2 (24%)2.8

(7%)

1.7

(5%)

0.7 (2%)

3.2 (8%) 3.3 (9%) $37.83.7 (10%)

0.8 (2%)

1.0 (3%)

2.6

(8%)

1.5 (4%) 0.8 (2%)

2.5

(7%)

1.5

(4%)

2.7

(7%)

2.3

(6%)

0.3 (1%)

8.1 (22%)3.0

(8%)

1.4

(4%)

2.9 (8%) 3.2 (9%) 3.6 (10%)

0.9 (3%)

4 WE 05/17/202.2

(6%)

2.0

(7%)

0.4 (1%)

2.3

(7%)

3.5 (10%)

2.5 (8%)

1.4

(4%)

0.4 (1%)

3.1 (9%)

1.6 (4%)

$31.09

$35.74

$34.7

+11%

+9%

-3%

Home Care

Paper Products

OTC Healthcare

Personal Care

Pet Food + Care Baby Food + Care

Alcohol

General Merch.

Cosmetics

Beverage Fresh Foods

Packaged Food Dairy

Frozen Foods

Nonedible Edible

Packaged Foods has

slightly declined over

the past four weeks

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel 4 weeks ending April 19, 2020. All Outlets.

UnitedStates


in the U.S. and

New Zealand


13% 28%21%

27%

10%4%

20%27%

96%

-1%

3%15%

5% 5%14% 17%

30%

32%27% 24% 21% 21%

13% 11%

50%

4/263/82/23 4/5

25%

3/1 3/29

0%

2/9 2/16 5/33/15

75%

5/17

100%

3/22 4/12 5/245/104/19

63%

4%4%

19%21%

27%

6%

30%

4%18%

5%

15%

9%

27%

11%

30%

11%19%

35%

3%

70%

3% 4%

6%

In New Zealand, CPG Sales Trends Slow Down

During Second Phase of Loosened Restrictions



Stockpiling begins Level 3 RestrictLevel 4 Lockdown

Level 4 Lockdown From March 26

• Strict lockdown

Level 3 Restrict From April 28

• Can reconnect with close family

• Schools & workplaces reopened

but people should stay at home

unless not possible

• Businesses can open but not

interact with customers

Level 2 Reduce From May 14

• Can socialize in groups up to 10

• Businesses can open with safe

distancing practices

• Public venues open

• Safe to send kids to school

Level 2-3 RestrictionsLevel 2 Reduce

New Zealand

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies / Source: IRI POS data Week Ending May 24, 2020

Total CPG

Nonedible

Edible


Nonedible Edible

-25%

13%

96%

18%

-13%

10%

21%

15%25%

0%

50%

75%

100%

125%

5/3 5/172/23 3/8 3/22 4/5 4/19

150%

175%

200%

7%

Most Edible Segments Decelerated From Previous Periods in New

Zealand, Nonedible Remain Steady With Exception of Cosmetics



Stockpiling beginsStockpiling begins Restrictions loosened Restrictions loosened

199%

-9%

28%8%

-15%

6%

15%

5%

2/23

100%

3/8 5/34/19

150%

3/22 4/5 5/17

0%

25%

50%

75%

125%

175%

200%

-25%

5%

5/245/24

New Zealand

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending May 10, 2020

Paper Products

OTC Healthcare

Home Care

Personal Care

Pet Food + Care

General Merchandise

Cosmetics Fresh Foods

Dairy

Beverage

Baby Food + Care

Frozen Foods

Packaged Food

Alcohol


Reopening Soon

Purchasing Behavior Tends to Remain Similar Across the U.S.

Even as States Begin to Loosen Restrictions and Open Restaurants UnitedStates

4 WE

1/26/20

4 WE

2/23/20

4 WE

3/22/20

4 WE

4/19/20

4 WE

5/17/20

Total U.S. 1% 3% 30% 11% 16%

Georgia1 -1% 1% 24% 14% 15%

Texas2 2% 3% 30% 10% 13%

Florida3 2% 3% 29% 8% 11%


Stockpile

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Montana North Dakota

Idaho

Washington

Arizona

CaliforniaColorado

Nevada

New Mexico

Oregon

Utah

Wyoming

Arkansas

Iowa

Kansas Missouri

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

LouisianaTexas

Connecticut

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Vermont

Alabama

Florida

GeorgiaMississippi

South

Carolina

IllinoisIndiana

Kentucky

North

Carolina

Ohio

Tennessee

Virginia

Wisconsin

West

Virginia

Delaware

District of Columbia

Maryland

New Jersey

New York

Pennsylvania

Maine

Michigan

Alaska

Hawaii

Regional Reopening

Reopening

1. Georgia stay-at-home order was lifted on April 30th 2. Texas stay-at-home order was lifted on April 30th 3. Florida stay-at-home order was lifted on May 4th / Source: IRI, BCG Analysis

Shut Down or Restricted


Nonedible Edible

In Georgia, Trends Remained Mostly Consistent With Prior

COVID-19 Trends; Edible Didn’t Accelerate as Much as Total U.S.




4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

Stockpiling Stockpiling

UnitedStates

Pet Food + Care

Paper Products

General Merch.

Home Care

Personal Care

OTC Healthcare

Cosmetics

In Total U.S., Paper Products Decelerated

in the Last 4 Weeks, While Other Nonedible

and Most Edible Categories Accelerated Slightly

90%

29%24%

0%

7%0%

22%

-7%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2%

18%24%28%

43%37%

18%

100%

-25%

75%

50%

0%

25%

Frozen Foods

Dairy

Alcohol

Fresh Foods

Packaged Food

Beverage


Nonedible Edible

In Texas, Non-Beverage Edible Segments Did Not

Accelerate as Much as Total U.S. in Recent Weeks




4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20


UnitedStates

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100% 100%

-25%

75%

50%

0%

25%

92%

8%14%

-1%

8%1%

21%

-8%

Pet Food + Care

General Merch.

OTC Healthcare

Home Care

Personal Care

Paper Products

Cosmetics

10%12%

33%

24%

47%

29%

17%

Alcohol

Dairy

Frozen Foods

Fresh Foods

Packaged Food

Beverage





Nonedible Edible

Florida Also Exhibits Similar Trends

to Other Early Reopening States




4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20

4 Weeks

Ending

02-23-20

4 Weeks

Ending

01-26-20

4 Weeks

Ending

03-22-20

4 Weeks

Ending

04-19-20

4 Weeks

Ending

05-17-20


UnitedStates

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100% 100%

-25%

75%

50%

0%

25%

83%

24%

15%

-9%

-2%-2%

15%

-17%

Paper Products

Home Care

Personal Care

General Merch.

Pet Food + Care

OTC Healthcare

Cosmetics

4%

15%

22%25%

45%

33%

16% Fresh Foods

Alcohol

Frozen Foods

Beverage

Dairy

Packaged Food





appendix


Data Methodology and Notes

IRI tracks POS data weekly (weeks end on Sundays) and has ~one week of required processing time (E-commerce

has ~2 weeks processing time). U.S. National Consumer Panel data is released monthly. Tracker will be released

every four weeks on Thursday / Friday as data is available; deep dives will be refreshed periodically.

U.S. Data• Represents transaction

POS database (accounts

for 80%+ of FMCG sales)

• Data collected in multi-

outlet + convenience

(MULOC) channels:

Grocery, Drug,

Convenience, Mass,

Walmart, Club, Dollar,

and DECA Stores

• Excludes Costco

Germany DataIncludes hypermarkets,

supermarkets, and

drug stores

Italy DataExcludes open air markets

estimated at 6% of total

FMCG sales

Netherlands DataData collected for

supermarket, including online

UK DataAggregated sales across

major grocery retailers

France DataData collected in

hypermarkets, supermarkets,

discount, convenience

stores and e-shopping

New Zealand Data• Represents grocery channel

• Point of sale data, accounting

for 100% of pre-packaged

grocery sales

SpainIncludes hypermarkets and

supermarkets >100M and

modern drug stores


Insights and Strategic

Guidance for Better Decisions

IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time

Updates and Weekly Reports Which Track

the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail

The IRI COVID-19 lmpact

Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards

and the latest thought leadership on supply chain,

consumer behavior, channel shifts for the U.S.

AND international markets

IRI CPG Economic Indicators Including the

IRI CPG Demand Index™, IRI CPG Supply

Index™ and IRI CPG Inflation Tracker™

Accessible through the insights portal

to track the daily impact of COVID-19.

This includes top selling and out-of-stock

categories across the country and

consumer sentiment on social media

https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-US/Insights/Publications/coronavirus-impact-to-CPG-and-retail

https://bit.ly/IRI-COVID-19-Reports

https://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/index.html


The Latest COVID-19 Reports and Insights from IRI (click to see full report)

IRI COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS LESSONS FROM THE GREAT RECESSIONTHE CHANGING SHAPE OF THE CPG DEMAND CURVE

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Impact-Assessment-Millennials-Meat-5-15-20.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-3-Brand-Performance-5-21-2020.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-2-Maintaining-Pricing-Discipline-5-7-2020.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-I-4-29-2020.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-COVID-19-Impact-Assessment-4-24-2020.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19_IRI.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership-3-25-2020.pdf




https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-4-Private-Label-5-28-2020.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-5-Building-Brands-6-3-2020.pdf


IRI CPG Demand Index™

The IRI CPG Demand Index™ provides a

standard metric for tracking changes in

spending on consumer packaged goods. It

measures weekly changes in consumer

purchases, by dollar sales, against the year-

ago period across departments including fixed

and random weight products, grocery aisles

and retail formats. The IRI CPG Demand

Index™ is available for eight U.S. regions and

all U.S. states.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE!



The IRI CPG Inflation Tracker™ provides the

well-known price per unit metric for tracking

changes in pricing of consumer packaged

goods. It provides weekly changes in

consumer prices, price per unit against the

year-ago period across departments including

fixed and random weight products, grocery

aisles and retail formats. The IRI CPG

Inflation Tracker™ is available for eight U.S.

regions and all U.S. states.


IRI CPG Inflation Tracker™



The IRI CPG Supply Index™ provides a

standard metric for tracking changes in

product availability (i.e. in-stock rates) in

stores for consumer packaged goods. It

measures weekly changes in product

availability against the baseline across

departments and retail formats. The IRI

CPG Supply Index™ is available for eight

U.S. regions and all U.S. states.


IRI CPG Supply Index™


© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 46© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI).

Confidential and Proprietary. 46

CONTACT U.S. FOR MORE

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