CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED ......2020/04/02  · through Easter • Travel restrictions...

45
April 2, 2020 CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED CHANNELS U.S., UK, France, Italy, Germany, NZ COVID-19 Impact

Transcript of CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED ......2020/04/02  · through Easter • Travel restrictions...

Page 1: CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED ......2020/04/02  · through Easter • Travel restrictions • Public gatherings banned, including weddings & funerals • Schools and universities

April 2, 2020

CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER FOR MEASURED CHANNELSU.S., UK, France, Italy, Germany, NZ

COVID-19 Impact

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Executive Summary

• As the COVID-19 outbreak accelerates in Europe and the United States, governments,

businesses, and consumers are changing behaviors rapidly – this is reflected in

consumer purchases in Italy, France, U.S., Germany, New Zealand, and UK.

• Trends from Italy (~3 weeks earlier to COVID-19 crisis than the U.S., UK and New

Zealand as well as Germany and France (~2 weeks earlier) suggest consumer demand

is beginning to stabilize, but remains high.

• In the U.S., IRI National Consumer Panel data shows customers are both making more

trips and buying larger baskets in the most recent two weeks. Both pantry stocking and

smaller quick trips were up significantly.

• Ecommerce trends in the U.S. show a significant uptick starting the week ending

March 15, although brick & mortar sales spiked similarly, leaving overall online share

slightly down.

1. MULO includes Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club (excluding Costco), Dollar and DeCA retailers

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Document Contents

• Market Context and Conditions

• Consumer Spending Results by

Category, Market and Channel

• Deep Dive:

Shopping Behavior in the U.S.

• Deep Dive:

eCommerce Results in the U.S.

• Appendix

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Countries are at Different Points in the Crisis, with Italy About ~3 Weeks

Ahead and France About 2 Weeks Ahead of the U.S., NZ and UK

Cumulative # of Confirmed Cases; Data as of 3.31.2020

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

NZ

US

UK

Germany

France

Italy

Data in This Analysis

Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 31Mar 22

Source: World Health Organization

Italy | Mar 9All non-essential activities shut down

U.S. | Mar 11Europe travel ban

Italy | Mar 4All schools closed

U.S. | Mar 16Many restaurants, schools, businesses close in impacted areas

U.S. | Mar 21"Shelter in Place" orders for CA, CT, IL, NJ, & NY

Germany | Mar 22National restrictions on activitiesGermany | Mar 15

Borders to neighboring countries closed; all schools closed 2 days before

France | Mar 13Ban gatherings of 100+ people

Total Past 24 hrs Deaths

140,640 17,987 2,398

22,145 2,619 1,408

647 58 1

61,913 4,615 583

43,977 4,335 3,017

101,739 4,050 11,591

Cases Confirmed

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COVID-Related Restrictions as of April 2, 2020 (1 of 2)

• Nationwide lock-down extended through Easter

• Travel restrictions

• Public gatherings banned, including weddings & funerals

• Schools and universities closed

• Bars and restaurants closed at 6PM

• Shops closed on weekends (except for pharmacies and grocery stores)

• In certain impacted areas, maximum radius for dog walking is 200 meters, and all outdoor sport that cannot be practiced at home is banned

• Strict lock-down for at least 4 weeks starting March 17

• Freedom of movement of citizens heavily restricted; only those who go to work, grocery stores or pharmacies are allowed on the streets

• New military operation "Resilience" announced to support logistics and medial support

• Support for companies and employees who don’t work because of unemployment or to take care of their children, following the closure of schools

• Once health crisis is over, launch of massive investment plan & career revaluation in medical environment

• 8 of 9 borders sealed (exceptions made on individual basis)

• Schools across Germany are closed

• Nationwide closure of all non-essential businesses including restaurants, sports facilities, swimming pools, fitness studios and playgrounds

• Prohibition of group meetings (incl. faith communities) of more than 2 people, except families living together

• Family visits at Easter forbidden

• Accommodation offers only for necessary and not for tourist purposes

• Curfew in some cities (e.g., Freiburg, Bavaria)

Italy France Germany

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COVID-Related Restrictions as of April 1, 2020 (2 of 2)

• Gatherings of over 2 people not allowed. All events stopped, including weddings, baptisms and other ceremonies

• Increased restrictions on movement, stating that people should only leave their homes for:

Shopping for basic necessities such as food and medicine

One form of exercise / day

Any medical need, or to provide care a vulnerable person

Travelling to and from work, but only where absolutely necessary

• Month-long nationwide lock-down starting March 26

• Mass gatherings of any size are cancelled and public venues are closed

• Borders closed to non-residents

• $12B government stimulus package announced March 17

• All non-essential businesses will be closed and everyone will have to stay at home except for solitary exercise and visiting essential services

This includes delivery from restaurants, bars, and cafes

• President Trump appealing to other countries for supplies to fight COVID-19 (e.g., masks, ventilators)

• Travel ban from Europe

• Several states have closed public schools, and bars and restaurants (except delivery service)

• At least 225 million people in 30+ states are being urged to stay home in the U.S.

• Invoked Defense Production Act that gives the power to direct civilian businesses to help meet orders for products necessary for national defense (currently on hold)

UK New Zealand United States

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Countries With Biggest Sales Increases Started Stockpiling Most Recently

$ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

11%

32%

38%

67%

48%

48%

20%

0%

30%

10%

40%

50%

60%

NZ

France

U.S.

UK

Italy

Germany

Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22

Stockpiling begins Stockpiling begins Stockpiling begins

Mar 8

Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020

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Italy France Germany NZ UK U.S.

TOTAL STORE 11.5% 32.1% 38.2% 67.2% 47.5% 48.4%

Paper Products 33.0% 97.7% 104.8% 198.9% 83.0% 97.9%

Home Care 29.6% 57.9% 74.7% 118.1% 80.6% 75.3%

OTC Healthcare 30.0% 0.0% 39.1% 157.1% 121.9% 60.1%

Personal Care -10.9% 4.1% 26.8% 69.1% 66.9% 35.6%

Pet Food + Care 9.8% 56.2% 40.0% 62.6% 58.2% 37.3%

Gen Merchandise -42.4% NA 36.2% 38.7% 33.1% 19.6%

Cosmetics -13.2% -64.8% -18.8% 117.3% -11.3% -4.8%

Beverage 5.8% 22.4% 23.1% 41.2% 45.2% 28.2%

Packaged Food 19.8% 49.8% 54.3% 97.5% 69.6% 76.2%

Alcohol 8.5% -1.5% 18.0% 22.3% 59.2% 39.6%

Baby Food + Care 8.8% 35.9% 9.3% 75.4% 111.8% 41.9%

Dairy 23.3% 40.2% 34.4% 46.2% 49.6% 58.1%

Frozen Foods 36.7% 64.3% 45.7% 73.9% 84.4% 92.7%

Fresh Foods 9.8% 19.0% 44.2% 43.6% 27.5% 43.4%

Sales Increased Dramatically Across Most Categories; Paper

Products, Home Care and Frozen Foods Spiked in all Countries

% Change Most Recent Week vs. Year Ago, Based on Local Currency

Paper Products are in peak demand

across all countries

Products that help consumers clean

their homes remain in high demand

Frozen and Packaged Food

purchases continue to increase as

consumers stock their homes with

long-lasting foods

LEGEND

50%+

20% to 50%

10% to 20%

<5%

<0%

NO

NE

DIB

LE

ED

IBL

E

5% to 10%

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 15, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago Note: Exact product categorization varies slightly by country

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Nonedible Edible

OTC Healthcare Trending Down, Still Driving Nonedible Increases

With Paper and Home Care; Frozen Continues Driving Edible

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

€ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

33%

100%

76%

30%

-11%

10%

-42%

-13%

0%

-40%

40%

-20%

20%

60%

80%

100%

180% 162%

Paper Products

OTC Healthcare

Home Care

Pet Food + Care

Personal Care

Cosmetics

General Merch

6%

20%

9%

23%

37%

10%

-20%

20%

-40%

40%

100%

0%

60%

80%

180%

Alcohol

Frozen Foods

Packaged Food

Dairy

Fresh Foods

Baby Food + Care

Beverage

Stockpiling begins

Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22

Stockpiling begins

Mar 8 Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020

Italy

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Nonedible Edible

Paper Products Continue Driving Nonedible, While Cosmetics

Declines; Frozen and Packaged Foods Driving Edible

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

€ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

98%

58%

0%

82%

56%

20%

-20%

60%

-60%

0%

40%

80%

100%

120%

-65%

103%

Cosmetics

Pet Food + Care

Paper Products

Personal Care

Home Care

OTC Healthcare

22%

50%

-1%

36%40%

64%

19%

-60%

-20%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

120%

57%

Dairy

Frozen Foods

Packaged Food

Baby Food + Care

Alcohol

Beverage

Fresh Foods

Stockpiling beginsStockpiling begins

Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8 Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020

France

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Nonedible Edible

Paper Products and Home Care Driving Nonedible

Increases; Packaged Foods Driving Edible

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

€ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

109%105%

75%

39%

27%

40%

36%

-19%

50%

0%

100%

150%

OTC Healthcare

Pet Food + Care

Paper Products

Home Care

General Merch

Personal Care

Cosmetics

23%

54%

18%9%

34%

46%44%

100%

0%

150%

50%

Packaged Food

Beverage

Frozen Foods

Fresh Foods

Dairy

Alcohol

Baby Food + Care

Stockpiling begins

Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22

Stockpiling begins

Mar 8 Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020

Germany

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Nonedible Edible

134%

83%81%

122%

67%58%

33%

-11%

80%

60%

20%

0%

40%

100%

120%

140%

Pet Food + Care

Personal Care

Home Care

OTC Healthcare

Paper Products

General Merch

Cosmetics

45%

70%

59%

112%

50%

84%

27%

80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

100%

120%

140%

Alcohol

Baby Food + Care

Frozen Foods

Packaged Food

Dairy

Beverage

Fresh Foods

OTC Healthcare, Baby Food + Care, and Frozen

Food are in High Demand in the Most Recent Week

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

£ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Stockpiling beginsStockpiling begins

Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8 Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020

UnitedKingdom

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98%

75%

60%

36%37%

20%

-5%

20%

40%

0%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

213%

103%Paper Products

Personal Care

OTC Healthcare

Home Care

Pet Food + Care

General Merch

Cosmetics

Nonedible

28%

76%

40%42%

58%

93%

43%

40%

0%

80%

20%

60%

100%

120%

140%

Frozen Foods

Baby Food + Care

Packaged Food

Fresh Foods

Dairy

Alcohol

Beverage

Edible

Paper Products Trending Down, Still Driving Nonedible Increases;

Edible Spikes Held from Prior Week, Continuing Frozen Emphasis

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

$ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Stockpiling beginsStockpiling begins

Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8 Feb 23Feb 16Feb 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22Mar 8

UnitedStates

Note: Segments defined to evaluate representative companies. Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020

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Not Surprisingly, Shoppers are Still Going

to Large Format Retailers to Stock Up

Week Ending February 9 – March 22, 2020

$ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

2%

63%58%

3% 0%

60%

50%

10%

-10%

0%

40%

20%

30%

11%

MULO

Convenience

Feb 23Feb 16February 9 Mar 1 Mar 15 Mar 22

Stockpiling begins

Mar 8

UnitedStates

Source: IRI POS Data Ending March 22, 2020. Note: MULO includes Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club (excluding Costco), Dollar and DeCA retailers.

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Top Growing Subcategories by Country (Latest Week)

Italy France Germany

SUBCATEGORY % CHG

Accessories / Gloves 309.5%

Flour 185.9%

Body-Hands-Feet / Insect

Repellent182.9%

Prepared Mix for Pizza 147.8%

Videogames 143.5%

Brewer's Yeast and Ferments 142.4%

Pastry Ingredients 135.8%

Haberdashery 125.2%

Alcohol (Denatured) 120.1%

Prepared Mix for Cakes 119.5%

SUBCATEGORY % CHG

Damp Cleansing Tissues 408.9%

Household Gloves 315.9%

Refreshing Tissues / Sticks 290.4%

Dried Potato Dumplings 241.9%

Hygiene / Sanitary Cleaner 240.0%

Semi-Finished Food in Shelf 226.2%

Homeopathic Remedies 206.6%

Soap 205.8%

Dried Potato Products 202.1%

Liquid Soups / Stews 187.7%

SUBCATEGORY % CHG

Cleaning Gloves 306.0%

Flours 253.0%

Cooked Pasta Dishes 186.6%

Cooked French Dishes 177.8%

Bath Soaps 170.9%

Yeast and Flavored Sugar 169.5%

Dehydrated Potato Puree 167.1%

Bleach 155.1%

Canned Peas 144.0%

Dried Vegetables 141.6%

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 vs. Year Ago

EDIBLE

NONEDIBLE

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Top Growing Subcategories by Country (Latest Week)

New Zealand UK United States

SUBCATEGORY % CHG

Soup - Cereal 808.5

Rice - Medium Grain 788.6

Dietary Supplements -

Immunity739.8

Dietary Supplements –

Cold & Flu551.3

Canned Soup –

Ready To Serve449.9

Rice - Jasmine 428.9

Rice - Long Grain 417.3

Fire Needs - Firelighters 415.0

Rubber Gloves - Disposable 410.6

Canned Meat - Other Meat 389.0

SUBCATEGORY % CHG

Dry / Refrigerated Yeast 501.5%

SS Ham 327.4%

Refrigerated Canned Ham 312.9%

Water Devices 304.5%

Personal Thermometers 295.2%

Potato / Sweet Potato 275.1%

Tomato Puree 270.1%

Stuffing Mixes 263.7%

Ready Wet Soup 257.9%

Powdered Milk 257.1%

SUBCATEGORY % CHG

Soup 206.0%

Canned Meats 196.8%

Canned Fish 163.7%

Sanitary Protection 143.8%

Frozen Meat 138.9%

Dry Pasta & Noodles 135.4%

Deos & Personal Wash 132.1%

Rice, Pulses & Cereals 129.9%

Canned & Bottled Fruit 129.3%

Canned & Packet Veg / Pasta 128.9%

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 vs. Year Ago

EDIBLE

NONEDIBLE

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Consumers are Making Both More Trips

and Larger Baskets in Recent Weeks

Total U.S. All Outlets Consumer Purchasing Dynamics

3%

13%

64%

61%

3/1

3/8

3/15

3/22

4%

10%

39%

39%

3/1

3/15

3/8

3/22

-3%

-1%

14%

12%

3/1

3/15

3/8

3/22

1%

2%

4%

2%

3/1

3/8

3/15

3/22

1%

2%

1%3/22

3/1

3/8

3/15 0%

Dollar Sales

% Chg. vs. YA

Trips per Household

% chg. vs. YA

Household Buyers

% chg. vs. YA

Units per Trip

% chg. vs. YA

Price per Unit

% chg. vs. YAWe

ek e

nd

ing

$16.4 B

$17.9 B

$25.2 B

$24.3 B

Actuals

4.3

4.6

5.9

5.9

Actuals

115.1M

115.6M

117.4M

114.5M

Actuals

9.5

9.7

10.7

10.4

Actuals

$3.48

$3.45

$3.42

$3.47

Actuals

UnitedStates

Source: IRI Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.

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Pantry Stocking Trips Grew Most, but Smaller Trips are

Also Growing Significantly vs. Last Year

TRIP COUNT BY TYPE (M)

354

(51%)

W/e 1

Mar 2020

Special Purpose

262

(53%)

111

(17%)

88

(16%)

79

(15%)

346

(52%)

72

(15%)

283

(53%)

77

(16%)

82

(17%)

110

(16%)

108

(16%)84

(16%)

W/e 8

Mar 2020

116

(17%)

W/e 15

Mar 2020

107

(16%)

107

(16%)

W/e 22

Mar 2020

Pantry Stocking

Fill In

Quick Trip

493

533

688670

UnitedStates

Pantry

Stocking

trips grew

+65 vs. YA

Smaller

trips grew

38% vs. YA

6.5

(40%)

3.8

(21%)

3.8

(21%)3.4

(21%)

3.2

(18%)3.0

(18%)

4.8

(20%)

7.1

(40%)

4.3

(18%)

3.4

(21%)

4.9

(19%)

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

11.2

(45%)

4.9

(19%)

4.2

(17%)

W/e 15

Mar 2020

10.4

(43%)

4.8

(20%)

W/e 22

Mar 2020

Pantry Stocking

Fill In

25.2

Special Purpose

Quick Trip

16.4

17.9

24.3

Spend in

Pantry

Stocking trips

grew +78 vs.

YA

Spend in

smaller trips

grew 50% vs.

YA

DOLLAR SALES ($B) BY TRIP TYPE

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.

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Consumers Increased Nonedible Purchases Initially

Followed by More Edible Spend in Recent Weeks

BUYERS (M HH’S) TRIPS PER BUYER DOLLARS PER TRIP UNITS PER TRIP

108

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

103

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

106 104

2.93.2

4.0 3.8

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

$21.77 $21.57 $21.68 $21.19

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

Nonedible

Edible

UnitedStates

% Change vs YA

3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 0.5%

% Change vs YA

W/e 8

Mar 2020

113

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

112 115 112

3.4 3.6

4.7 4.8

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

$26.18 $26.48$29.78 $29.81

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

1.6% 2.0% 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% 8.2% 40.3% 42.4%

9.1 9.410.4 10.2

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

-2.5% -0.4% 15.2% 17.9% -3.6% -1.1% 14.5% 14.0%

0.4% 3.6% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 10.3% 38.4% 34.2% 0.7% 3.9% 5.3% 2.8%0.7% 3.9% 5.3% 2.8%

$26.18 $26.48$29.78 $29.81

W/e 22

Mar 2020

W/e 1

Mar 2020

W/e 8

Mar 2020

W/e 15

Mar 2020

-2.5% -0.4% 15.2% 17.9%

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23

Packaged Food & Frozen Accounted for a

Greater Share of Baskets Post COVID

0.8

(3%)

1.3

(4%) 1.5

(5%)

9.3

(26%)

1.9

(6%)

2.5

(7%)

7.1

(23%)

2.1

(7%)

2.7

(7%)

1.5

(4%)

0.5

(2%)

2.7

(8%)

2.3

(8%)

2.4

(8%)

3.0

(10%)2019

Average Basket

Week Ending 22 March 2020

1.1

(3%)

0.5

(1%)

1.6

(5%)

1.7

(5%)

1.7

(5%)

0.6

(2%)

3.2

(9%)

3.3

(9%)

3.4

(9%)2020

31.12.4

(8%)

1.0

(3%)

2.1

(7%)

35.7

2.9

(9%)

+15%

Frozen Foods

Cosmetics

OTC Healthcare

Baby Food + Care

Home Care

Paper Products

Pet Food + Care

Personal Care

Dairy

General Merchandise

Beverage

Packaged Food

Alcohol

Fresh Foods

Only Personal Care,

Cosmetics and General

Merchandise declined vs. YA

in average basket sales

Packaged Food

accounted for greatest

portion of the growth

in average basket size

UnitedStates

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel All Outlets data Week Ending 22 Mar 2020 vs year ago

Nonedible Edible

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2019 2020

Nonedible: Paper Products, Home Care, OTC Healthcare

Latest Week Ending March 22, 2020

Paper Products Home Care

47

OTC Healthcare

34

4745

6057

Avg. Units per TripTrips per Buyer

9.4 9.3

16.3

9.6 9.3

18.5

Paper Products OTC HealthcareHome Care

1.6

2.01.81.8

2.0 2.0

OTC HealthcarePaper Products Home Care

1.21.4 1.5

1.71.9

1.7

Paper Products OTC HealthcareHome Care

UnitedStates

Household Buyers (M) Basket Size ($)

Source: IRI Panel All Outlets Data Week Ending 22 March 2020 vs. Year Ago

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25

Edible: Packaged Food, Beverages, Frozen Food

Latest Week Ending March 22, 2020

82

Frozen Foods Packaged Food

85

66

Beverage

10510091

Household Buyers (M) Basket Size ($)

Avg. Units per TripTrips per Buyer

11.512.8

8.4

13.1

15.6

8.9

Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage

3.2

5.4

3.03.4

6.6

3.1

Packaged FoodFrozen Foods Beverage

1.5

2.6

2.02.0

3.8

2.6

Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage

2019 2020

UnitedStates

Source: IRI National Consumer Panel All Outlets Data Week Ending 22 March 2020 vs. Year Ago

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In the US, Online has Only Seen a Sharp

Increase Starting the Week Ending 3/15

Dollar % Change vs YA, Total eCommerce

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Baseline is based on L26 Wks Ending 3/22/2020. Case count from Worldometer as of March 31, 2020

44% 43%37%

95%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

33%

2/2

38%

28%

1/5 1/12 1/261/19

1k

2/9

28%

2/16

21%

2/23 3/1

38%

3/8

75%

67%

4k

3/15

Online

Online - Edible Only

Online - Nonedible Only

# COVID-19 Cases

January 20: First case

identified in the US

March 11: European Travel

Ban Announced

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Within eCommerce, There is a Slight

Shift to Pickup & Delivery Models

Share of CPG eCommerce Dollar Sales by Fulfillment Type

76% 77% 80% 78% 78% 77% 78% 78% 78% 76% 73%

16% 16%14% 15% 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 17% 19%

9% 8% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 8%

2/2/2020 2/16/20201/19/20201/12/2020 2/9/20201/26/20201/5/2020 2/23/2020 3/1/2020

Pickup

3/8/2020

Delivery

Home

Shipment

3/15/2020

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories and retailers where fulfillment can be determined.

Delivery sales up

by ~100% over

YA

Pickup sales up

by ~200% over

YA

Home shipment

sales up by ~60%

from YA

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29

Edible Continues to Have a Much Higher

Proportion of Pickup and Delivery

Share of eCommerce Dollar Sales by Fulfillment Type

39% 42% 45% 43% 40% 41% 42% 42% 43% 40% 38%

39% 39% 38% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 43%

22% 19% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19%

1/5/2020 1/12/2020

Pickup

3/1/20201/19/2020 2/9/2020

Delivery

3/8/2020

Home

Shipment

1/26/2020 2/2/2020 2/16/2020 2/23/2020 3/15/2020

91% 92% 93% 93% 93% 92% 92% 93% 92% 91% 89%

8%

1/12/20201/5/2020 2/2/20201/19/2020 2/9/2020

7%

2/23/2020 3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/15/2020

Delivery

Pickup

2% 6%

Home

Shipment

6% 6%6%2%5% 6% 2%

2/16/2020

6%5%

1/26/2020

3%2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%5%

Nonedible

Edible

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories and retailers where fulfillment can be determined.

UnitedStates

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30

Panic Buying in

Brick & Mortar

While eCommerce Sales Have Grown Over the Past Few Weeks,

eCommerce’s Share of Omni-Channel Sales is Slightly Decreasing

Total eCommerce Share of Omni-Channel

16.2 16.217.2 17.5

16.816.0 15.7

16.7 17.315.9

14.1

8.8 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.98.8 8.6 8.2

7.3

28.3 28.7

31.5 31.330.5

29.3 29.6 29.9 30.3

27.4

25.4

01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20

Non

Edible

Edible

Total

Store

UnitedStates

Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Omni-Channel = Total U.S. Multi Outlet + Total eCommerce

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31

appendix

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32

U.S. Data• Represents transaction

POS database (accounts

for 80%+ of FMCG sales)

• Data collected in Multi-

Outlet + Convenience

(MULOC) channels:

Grocery, Drug,

Convenience, Mass,

Walmart, Club, Dollar,

and DECA Stores

• Excludes Costco

Italy DataExcludes Open Air Markets

estimated at 6% of total FMCG sales

Data Methodology and Notes

IRI tracks POS data weekly (weeks end on Sundays) and has ~one week of required processing time (ecommerce has ~2 weeks

processing time). U.S. National Consumer Panel data is released monthly. Tracker will be released weekly on Wednesday / Thursday as

data is available; deep dives will be refreshed periodically.

New Zealand Data• Represents Grocery channel

• Point of Sale data accounting for

100% of pre-packaged Grocery sales

UK DataAggregated sales across major grocery retailers

France DataData collected in

hypermarkets,

supermarkets,

discount, Convenience

stores and e-shopping

Germany DataIncludes hypermarkets, supermarkets, and drug stores

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33

Group Dept % Chg

Paper Products Hygienic Products/ Toilet Paper 34.5%

Paper Products Disposable / Kitchen Rolls 51.0%

Paper Products Disposable / Napkins 19.2%

Home Care Laundry - Washing Machine Detergents 2.1%

Home Care Disposable / Table Accessories -6.9%

Home Care Fabric Softeners 3.5%

Home Care Small Surfaces Detergents 80.7%

Home Care Dishwasher Detergent 45.5%

OTC Healthcare Parapharma / First Aid Medication 36.2%

OTC Healthcare Parapharma / Other 18.2%

OTC Healthcare Parapharma / Diagnostic 49.8%

Group Dept % Chg

Personal Care Oral Hygiene / Toothpaste 4.3%

Personal Care Personal Hygiene / Bath & Shower Gel 2.5%

Personal Care Personal Hygiene / Deodorants -31.0%

Pet Food + Care Pet Care Cats - Nutrition 8.2%

Pet Food + Care Pet Care Dog - Nutrition 8.9%

Pet Food + Care Pet Care Cats - Litters 22.6%

Gen Merch Cell Phones And Accessories -32.2%

Gen Merch Books/Magazines/Newspapers -22.4%

Gen Merch Toys -49.4%

Cosmetics Hair Shampoo 3.3%

Cosmetics Hair Coloring 75.3%

Cosmetics Hair Conditioner -4.9%

Largest Sub-Categories – Nonedible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

Italy

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Beverage Still Water -3.2%

Beverage Coffee Grounds 25.9%

Beverage Cola 3.3%

Beverage Tea -12.3%

Beverage Natural Sparkling Water 1.5%

Packaged Food Tuna In Oil 34.3%

Packaged Food Bakery Snacks 4.0%

Packaged Food Pasta 21.4%

Packaged Food Extra Virgin Olive Oil 6.2%

Packaged Food Sweet Snacks -12.6%

Alcohol Beer 11.8%

Alcohol Wine - Italian DOC 13.7%

Alcohol Wine - Italian IGT 13.7%

Alcohol Dark Liquor -3.8%

Group Dept % Chg

Baby Care Biscuits 14.8%

Baby Care Baby Care / Diapers -4.0%

Baby Care Homogenized Baby Food 7.0%

Dairy Aged Cheese 13.9%

DairyMilk (Ultra High Temperature

Pasteurized)37.2%

Dairy Mozzarella Cheese 48.8%

Dairy Fresh Milk -1.8%

Dairy Parmesan Cheese 34.4%

Frozen Foods Natural Vegetables & Fruits 43.1%

Frozen Foods Multipack Ice Creams 22.3%

Frozen Foods Natural Fish 48.5%

Fresh Foods Red Meat 15.1%

Fresh Foods Sliced Cold Cuts 27.5%

Fresh Foods Fish -23.5%

Largest Sub-Categories – Edible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

Italy

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Paper Products Toilet Paper 97.2%

Paper Products All-purpose Paper Towels 106.0%

Paper Products Tissues And Paper 87.8%

Home Care Laundry Detergent 64.6%

Home Care Multipurpose Household Cleaners 119.2%

Home Care Garbage Bags 74.2%

Home Care Machine Dishwasher Detergent 73.9%

Home Care Hand Dishwasher Detergent 78.9%

OTC Healthcare Parapharmacy Accessories 46.9%

OTC Healthcare Dietary Supplements -17.4%

OTC Healthcare Weight Loss Products -7.7%

Group Dept % Chg

Personal Care Shower Gels 9.3%

Personal Care Toothpaste 13.8%

Personal Care Deodorant -23.4%

Pet Food + Care Wet Cat Food 36.9%

Pet Food + Care Dry Cat Food 67.6%

Pet Food + Care Dry Dog Food 67.4%

Cosmetics Cosmetics -64.8%

Largest Sub-Categories – Nonedible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

France

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Beverage Natural Mineral Water 32.2%

Beverage Fruit Juice 19.6%

Beverage Colas 14.2%

Beverage Coffee Pods 28.5%

Beverage Roasted Coffee 55.1%

Packaged Food Chocolate Bars 42.4%

Packaged Food Chocolate Confectionery 4.0%

Packaged Food Baked Goods 26.1%

Packaged Food Cooking Oil 82.6%

Packaged Food Single Serve Pastry 16.6%

Alcohol Whiskey 0.4%

Alcohol Specialty Blonde Beers 6.7%

Alcohol Specialty Beers 20.2%

Alcohol Anise 5.0%

Group Dept % Chg

Baby Care Diapers 38.4%

Baby Care Baby Food 22.1%

Baby Care Milk For Baby 51.3%

Dairy Yogurt 19.3%

Dairy Milk 70.1%

Dairy Hard Cheese 49.8%

Dairy Butter 58.5%

Dairy Fresh Cream 51.2%

Frozen Foods Single Serve Ice Cream 17.7%

Frozen Foods Frozen Meat 120.7%

Frozen Foods Frozen Fish 119.2%

Fresh Foods Fresh Desserts 11.2%

Fresh Foods Cooked Ham 47.1%

Fresh Foods Eggs 54.2%

Largest Sub-Categories – Edible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

France

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37

Group Dept % Chg

Paper Products Dry Toilet Paper 86.1%

Paper Products Kitchen Rolls 92.5%

Paper Products Tissues 162.5%

Home Care Heavy Duty Detergents 82.9%

Home Care Machine Dishwasher Detergent 115.8%

Home Care Fabric Softener 37.6%

Home Care Toilet Rim Block 61.4%

Home Care All Purpose Cleaner 70.0%

OTC Healthcare Cold Medicine 91.6%

OTC Healthcare Dry Mineral Products 51.0%

OTC Healthcare Dry Vitamin Products 72.2%

Group Dept % Chg

Personal Care Face Care 1.3%

Personal Care Shampoo 35.8%

Personal Care Toothpaste 52.4%

Pet Food + Care Wet Cat Food 41.9%

Pet Food + Care Dry Dog Food 38.1%

Pet Food + Care Dry Cat Food 34.5%

Gen Merch Phone Cards 24.2%

Gen Merch Air Freshener 2.6%

Gen Merch Household / Garbage Bags 69.4%

Cosmetics Eye Make Up -35.0%

Cosmetics Face Make Up -34.5%

Cosmetics Hair Coloring 45.7%

Largest Sub-Categories – Nonedible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

Germany

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Beverage Fruit Juice 31.4%

Beverage Sports Beverages 13.0%

Beverage Lemonade 8.1%

Beverage Water With Additives 3.0%

Beverage Instant Coffee 66.9%

Packaged Food Chocolate Bars 21.6%

Packaged Food Nuts / Kernels / Trail Mix 39.2%

Packaged Food Candies / Confectionaries -6.0%

Packaged Food Sausages In Aspic (Shelf Stable) 100.8%

Packaged Food Chocolate Bar / Nuts Bar 26.4%

Alcohol Beer / Nonalcoholic Beer 23.9%

Alcohol Wine 23.8%

Alcohol Clear Schnapps 22.0%

Alcohol Liquor 8.8%

Group Dept % Chg

Baby Care Baby Diapers -19.2%

Baby CareLiquid/Dry Baby Nutrition With/Without

Milk28.8%

Baby Care Baby - Cleansing Tissues 62.9%

Dairy Cheese 39.0%

Dairy Firm Yogurt 20.7%

Dairy Butter / Butter Preparations 23.7%

Dairy Eggs 40.0%

Dairy Homogenized Milk 64.5%

Frozen FoodsFrozen Pizza / Baguette / Flavored

Dough Products48.1%

Frozen Foods Frozen Dishes 66.4%

Frozen Foods Ice Cream 6.5%

Fresh Foods Chilled Sausages In Aspic 51.9%

Fresh Foods Ready To Eat Desserts 15.4%

Fresh Foods Chilled Salads 10.0%

Largest Sub-Categories – Edible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

Germany

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Paper Products Toilet Tissue - Premium Toilet 229.6%

Paper Products Toilet Tissue - Economy Toilet 176.8%

Paper Products Paper Towels - Premium Towel 157.0%

Home Care Laundry Detergent - Powder 118.5%

Home Care Machine Dishwasher Detergent 162.2%

Home Care Hand Dishwasher Detergent 157.2%

Home Care Household Cleaners - All Purpose 217.8%

Home Care Laundry Detergent - Liquid 151.7%

OTC Healthcare Feminine Hygiene - Incontinence 92.0%

OTC Healthcare Respiratory Tract - Cough / Cold 289.6%

OTC Healthcare Feminine Hygiene - Tampons 178.0%

OTC Healthcare Sun Care - Sunscreen -31.7%

OTC Healthcare Analgesics - Paracetamol 319.0%

Group Dept % Chg

Personal Care Facial Skincare - Facial Moisturizer 32.9%

Personal CareHand & Body Skincare - H&B Body

Moisturizer75.7%

Personal Care Mouthwash 105.4%

Pet Food + Care Wet Cat Food 67.2%

Pet Food + Care Dry Cat Food 103.7%

Pet Food + Care Pet Snacks & Treats 48.1%

Gen Merch Prepaid Service - Gift Cards 13.3%

Gen Merch Plastic Bags, Wraps, Foils 43.0%

Gen Merch Prepaid Service - Rechargable Card -4.6%

Cosmetics Personal Wash - Shower Gels 93.5%

Cosmetics Hair Coloring - Permanent 47.4%

Cosmetics Personal Wash - Bar Soaps 289.0%

Largest Sub-Categories – Nonedible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

NewZealand

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Beverage Lifestyle Drinks - Energy Drinks 7.7%

Beverage Carbonated Beverages - Cola Single 12.7%

Beverage Carbonated Beverages - Cola Multipack 5.3%

Beverage Water – Still Water 54.9%

Beverage Juice/Drinks - Juice Multiserve 21.1%

Packaged Food Confectionery – Chocolate Blocks 30.9%

Packaged Food Snack Foods – Potato Products 50.8%

Packaged Food Nuts - Snacking Nuts 51.2%

Packaged Food Biscuits - Crackers 69.0%

Packaged Food Biscuits - Coated 23.7%

Alcohol Beer - Premium Beer 13.8%

Alcohol Wine - Sauvignon Blanc 27.9%

Alcohol Beer - Mainstream Beer 6.8%

Alcohol Beer - Specialty Beer 10.9%

Group Dept % Chg

Baby Care Baby Food - Formula 45.6%

Baby Care Nappies - Diapers 90.4%

Baby Care Baby Needs - Wipes 133.5%

Dairy Milk & Cream - Std/Homogenized 29.5%

Dairy Smallgoods Dairy - Prepack Bacon 89.1%

Dairy Dairy Spreads & Fats - Butter 88.0%

Dairy Cheese - NAT Block 1kg+ 96.8%

Dairy Eggs - Caged 37.0%

Frozen Foods Frozen Meat – Value-Added Chicken 120.2%

Frozen Foods Ice Cream - Thome-regular 12.8%

Frozen Foods Savories - Fresh Pies 40.8%

Fresh Foods Bread - Light Grain 49.8%

Fresh Foods Bread - White 51.6%

Fresh Foods Bread - Heavy Grain 47.9%

Largest Sub-Categories – Edible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

NewZealand

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Paper Products Household Paper 83.0%

Home Care Detergents/Laundry 102.6%

Home Care Household Sundries 35.2%

Home Care Cleaning Products 111.4%

OTC Healthcare Medicines 124.3%

OTC Healthcare Vitamins & Nutrition 111.0%

Group Dept % Chg

Personal Care Haircare 51.8%

Personal Care Oral Hygiene 71.3%

Personal Care Deodorants & Personal Wash 132.1%

Pet Food + Care Pet Food 60.3%

Pet Food + Care Pet Non Food 34.7%

Gen Merch Houseware -12.0%

Gen Merch Garden & Flowers 116.5%

Gen Merch Newspapers & Magazines 4.6%

Cosmetics Cosmetics & Fragrances -11.3%

Largest Sub-Categories – Nonedible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

UnitedKingdom

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 42

Group Dept % Chg

Beverage Soft Drinks 30.7%

Beverage Hot Beverages 82.0%

Packaged Food Confectionery 21.2%

Packaged Food Crisps, Snacks & Nuts 32.5%

Packaged Food Biscuits 46.7%

Packaged Food Cooking Products 110.0%

Packaged Food Breakfast Cereals 84.3%

Alcohol Wine 55.5%

Alcohol Spirits 68.1%

Alcohol Beer 58.5%

Alcohol Cider & Perry 53.0%

Group Dept % Chg

Personal Care Deodorants 33.1%

Personal Care Toothpaste 64.6%

Personal Care Liquid Body Wash/All Other 61.3%

Pet Food + Care Dry Dog Food 56.8%

Pet Food + Care Dog Biscuits/Treats/Beverages 29.7%

Pet Food + Care Dog/Cat Needs -1.5%

Gen Merch Disposable Plates/Bowls 46.3%

Gen Merch Household/Kitchen Storage 5.9%

Gen Merch Garbage/Trash/Lawn&leaf Bags 77.6%

Cosmetics Regular Shampoo 33.1%

Cosmetics Hair Conditioner/Creme Rinse 22.8%

Cosmetics Hair Accessories -35.0%

Fresh Foods Vegetables 34.7%

Largest Sub-Categories – Edible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

UnitedKingdom

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 43

Group Dept % Chg

Paper Products Toilet Tissue 92.3%

Paper Products Paper Towels 97.7%

Paper Products Facial Tissue 128.4%

Home Care Liquid Laundry Detergent 77.3%

Home Care Cleaning Tools/Mops/Brooms 28.6%

Home Care Home Air Fresheners 19.6%

Home Care Manual Dish Detergent 145.3%

Home Care Other Laundry Detergent (Packet/Bar) 116.7%

OTC Healthcare Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets/Packets 93.4%

OTC Healthcare Mineral Supplements 29.2%

OTC Healthcare Weight Control/Nutritionals Liq/Pwd 23.5%

OTC Healthcare Internal Analgesic Tablets 123.2%

OTC Healthcare Antacid Tablets 31.0%

Group Dept % Chg

PERSONAL CARE DEODORANTS 33.1%

PERSONAL CARE TOOTHPASTE 64.6%

PERSONAL CARE LIQUID BODY WASH/ALL OTHER 61.3%

PET FOOD + CARE DRY DOG FOOD 56.8%

PET FOOD + CARE DOG BISCUITS/TREATS/BEVERAGES 29.7%

PET FOOD + CARE DOG/CAT NEEDS -1.5%

GEN MERCH DISPOSABLE PLATES/BOWLS 46.3%

GEN MERCH HOUSEHOLD/KITCHEN STORAGE 5.9%

GEN MERCH GARBAGE/TRASH/LAWN&LEAF BAGS 77.6%

COSMETICS REGULAR SHAMPOO 33.1%

COSMETICS HAIR CONDITIONER/CREME RINSE 22.8%

COSMETICS HAIR ACCESSORIES -35.0%

Largest Sub-Categories – Nonedible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

UnitedStates

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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Group Dept % Chg

Beverage Regular Soft Drinks 19.5%

Beverage Convenience/Pet Still Water 36.5%

Beverage Ss Energy Drinks Non-aseptic -3.3%

Beverage Low Calorie Soft Drinks 28.1%

Beverage Ss Sports Drinks Non-aseptic 29.9%

Packaged Food Cookies 46.8%

Packaged Food Ready-to-eat Cereal 80.5%

Packaged Food Potato Chips 39.3%

Packaged Food Tortilla/Tostada Chips 53.1%

Packaged Food All Other Crackers 62.7%

Alcohol Domestic Beer/Ale (Inc Non-alcoholic) 33.2%

Alcohol Domestic Table/Still Wine 45.5%

Alcohol Imported Beer/Ale (Inc Non-alcoholic) 27.5%

Alcohol Spirits 62.8%

Group Dept % Chg

Baby Care Disposable Diaper 74.5%

Baby Care Baby Wipes 127.8%

Baby Care Disposable Training Pants 58.3%

Dairy Rfg Skim/Lowfat Milk 42.6%

Dairy Rfg Yogurt 21.4%

Dairy Fresh Eggs 71.8%

Dairy Natural Cheese-shredded 88.5%

Dairy Rfg Whole Milk 48.5%

Frozen Foods Ice Cream 44.7%

Frozen Foods Frozen Pizza 140.2%

Frozen Foods Frozen Novelties 33.3%

Fresh Foods Fresh Bread 61.7%

Fresh Foods Rfg Uncooked Meats (No Poultry) 85.3%

Fresh Foods Rfg Sliced Lunchmeat 86.7%

Largest Sub-Categories – Edible(Based on Prior 52 Week Sales)

UnitedStates

Source: IRI POS Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 2020 vs. Year Ago

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 45© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI).

Confidential and Proprietary. 45

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