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Information Coordination: The Bullwhip Effect
Consumer Sales at Retailer
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Manufacturer's Orders with Supplier
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Demand forecast updating◦ Amplification depends on lead time and forecasting method
Order Batching◦ Upstream parties place orders with suppliers less frequently than
they receive customer orders
◦ Uses inventory to meet frequent customer orders and only replenishes when inventory is low due to costs of ordering/holding and quantity discounts
Price Fluctuations◦ Change downstream party purchasing behavior
Rationing and Shortage Gaming◦ Downstream parties try to maximize order fulfillment by padding
orders
Four Common Factors that Contribute to Bullwhip Effect
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Information Sharing:◦ Point of sales systems◦ Electronic Data Interchange (EDI)
◦ Radio Frequency Identification Tags Channel Alignment
◦ Centralized supply chain: single stage control of replenishment
◦ Vendor-managed inventory ◦ Drop shipping◦ Cross-docking; logistics outsourcing ◦ Order fulfillment based on past sales◦ Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)
Operational Efficiency & Lead-time Reduction◦ Postponement ◦ Standardization◦ Every day low pricing
Coordinating the Supply-Chain
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Low High
Price ResponsivenessCustomer Need
Implied Demand Uncertainty
Functional Products:Detergent, Gas
Innovative Products:High Fashion, AppleWatch
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Responsiveness: the ability to◦ Respond to wide ranges of quantities demanded◦ Meet short lead times◦ Handle a large variety of products◦ Build highly innovative products◦ Meet a very high service level
Efficiency: ◦ Minimize the cost of making and delivering a
product to the customer
Supply Chain Characteristics
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Efficient –vs- Responsive Chains
Efficient Chain Responsive Chain
Primary Goal Low Cost Quick Response
Pricing Strategy Lower Margins Higher Margins
Manufacturing Strategy
High Utilization Maintain Capacity Flexibility
Inventory Strategy Minimize Inventory Maintain Safety Inventory
Lead Time Strategy Reduce if possible Aggressively Reduce
Transportation Strategy Low Cost Modes Responsive Modes
Supplier Strategy Select based on Cost and Quality
Select based on Speed, Flexibility and Quality
Supply Chain Coordination
Collaborate; centralize; share info to cut costs
Achieve speed and flexibility
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Tactic 1. Reduce total number of
suppliers
Certify suppliers
Ask for JIT delivery from key suppliers
Involve key suppliers in new product design
Develop software linkages to suppliers
Results Average 20% reduction in 5
years
Almost 40% of all companies surveyed were themselves currently certified
About 60% ask for this; about 54% do this
Almost 80% claim to do this
About 50% claim this; about 15% more than have EDI links to suppliers
Purchasing Trends
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© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Measuring Supply-Chain Performance
Table 11.6
Typical FirmsBenchmark
Firms
Lead time (weeks) 15 8
Time spent placing an order 42 minutes 15 minutes
Percentage of late deliveries 33% 2%
Percentage of rejected material 1.5% .0001%
Number of shortages per year 400 4