Consumer / Portable

PEG Table of Contents/ Examples

Chair: Vadim Sherman, Intel

1

Example Product Emulator Chapter Content

Portable/Consumer

Contents

Consumer / Portable Product Sector .......................................................................................... 1

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3

Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4

Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 11

Critical Issues (Infrastructure) .............................................................................................. 16

Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends ............................................................... 18

Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies ............................................ 19

Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 25

Tables

Table 1. Key Parameters for Hand Held Product Sector .............................................................. 12

2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

$Bn

2009 2010 2012 2013 20152011 2014 2016

N212.146mvc- value ship

56

98

174

222

275

318

89

$385Bn$377Bn

$361Bn

$324Bn

$276Bn

$235Bn

$178Bn

$146Bn

81

62

54

48

43

Total Branded:

Smartphones: Non-Smartphones:

CAAGR 2011-2016

10.4%

-13.4%

15.4%

339

355

3830

Prismark Partners LLC

September 2012

Example Product Emulator Chapter Content – (continued)

Portable/Consumer – Smartphone/Non-Smartphone Growth

3

Parameter Descriptions Metric 2011 2013 2015 2017 2023

Components/ Package Typical Product Family

Utilizing

Max Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 500 600 700 800 1200

Average Component I/O density Substrate Density I/O/sq.cm 50 55 60 80 120

Average Component Density Substrate Density #/sq.cm 30 40 50 80 120

Maximum I/O per package State of the Art

(production volume) I/O per part 600 675 725 1000 1400

Average I/O per package State of the Art

(production volume) I/O per part 7 7.5 8 9 11

Max Components/sq. cm. Substrate Density #/sq.cm 55 60 70 75 95

Max I/O for 50 mm square SCM

w/ full area array

State of the Art

(production volume) # 3000 3500 5000 8000 13000

Max I/O for 100 mm square

MCM w/ full area array

State of the Art

(production volume) # UA UA UA UA UA

Package I/O Pitch, (area array) Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Package I/O Pitch for SCM (area

array)

Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Package I/O Pitch for MCM (area

array)

Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Package I/O Pitch (perimeter) Minimum Pitch

(Production volume) mm 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Example Product Emulator Chapter – (continued)

Portable/Consumer, Key Parameters Table 1 (12 rows of ≈ 250)

4

Highlights

Optoelectronics TWG Table of

Contents/ Examples

Chair: Dick Otte, Promax

6

Sample Chapter Content – Optoelectronics Contents

Optoelectronics ............................................................................................................................1

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 11

Situation (Infrastructure) Analysis ........................................................................................ 15

Telecommunications Situation.......................................................................................... 17

The Telecommunications Sector vs Data Communications Sector .................................. 23

FTTX Situation ................................................................................................................. 24

Local Area Network (LAN) Situation .............................................................................. 28

Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) Situation ........................................................ 34

Active Optical Cable Situation ......................................................................................... 38

Backplane Situation .......................................................................................................... 41

On-Card Data Transmission Situation .............................................................................. 46

On-Chip Optical Interconnect Situation ........................................................................... 52

BER (Bit Error Rates) ....................................................................................................... 54

Financial and Business Status ........................................................................................... 55

Status Summary ................................................................................................................ 60

Manufacturing Issues ............................................................................................................ 61

Manufacturing Equipment Availability ............................................................................ 61

Data Communication Manufacturing Process Issues ....................................................... 62

Designing for Manufacturing ............................................................................................ 66

Quality Requirements ....................................................................................................... 67

Environmental Issues ........................................................................................................ 68

Supply Chain Issues .......................................................................................................... 68

Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 69

Critical (Infrastructure) Issues .............................................................................................. 84

Technology Needs ................................................................................................................ 87

Prioritized Research & Development Needs ........................................................................ 89

Gaps and Show Stoppers ...................................................................................................... 90

Recommendations on Potential Alternative Technologies ................................................... 91

Black Swans2 ........................................................................................................................ 92

Appendix A ........................................................................................................................... 93

Graphical Roadmap Representation ................................................................................. 93

Appendix B ........................................................................................................................... 95

Electrons vs Photons for Data Communication ................................................................ 95

Appendix C ........................................................................................................................... 97

Contributors/Acknowledgments ....................................................................................... 97

Appendix D ........................................................................................................................... 98

Glossary ............................................................................................................................ 98

Appendix E ..................................................................................................................... 101

Optoelectronic Internet Links to Items of Interest. ......................................................... 101

7

Example Chapter Content – Optoelectronics (2)

Plus Tables 45 through 65

Tables

Table 1: Summary of Critical issues, Gaps and Show Stoppers, and Technical Needs .............9

Table 2: Market and Application Mapping: Product status matrix .........................................13

Table 3: Optical Data Transmission Technology Improvements and Potential Future

Improvements .......................................................................................................21

Table 4: Distinct LAN Applications .........................................................................................28

Table 5: MSA Standards Overview ..........................................................................................29

Table 6: Examples of short range, commercial POF based systems. .......................................35

Table 7: Some of the Active Optical Cable Suppliers as of August 2012 ................................38

Table 8: Recent Financial Results of Some Industry Firms .....................................................54

Table 9: Manufacturing Processes for Optical Products with Those Unique

to Optical Products Highlighted .........................................................................58

Table 10: Telecommunications – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................70

Table 11: FTTX (X = Curb, House, Desk, Antenna, etc…) – Key Attribute Needs ................71

Table 12: LANS – Key Attribute Needs ...................................................................................73

Table 13: Plastic Optical Fiber (POF) (Automotive) – Key Attribute Needs ..........................75

Table 14: Active Optical Cables (AOC) – Key Attribute Needs ..............................................76

Table 15: Backplane – Key Attribute Needs ............................................................................78

Table 16: On-Card – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................79

Table 17: In-to and Out-of Package –Key Attribute Needs ......................................................80

Table 18: On-Chip – Key Attribute Needs ...............................................................................82

Table 19: Critical Infrastructure Issues .....................................................................................83

Table 20: Technology Needs ....................................................................................................86

Table 21: Research and Development Needs ...........................................................................88

Table 22: Gaps and Show Stoppers ..........................................................................................89

Table 23: Potential Alternate Technologies ..............................................................................90

Table 24: Black Swans 91

8

Example Chapter Content Optoelectronics (3) Figures

Figure 1: Data rates vs distance with media as a parameter illustrating optical dominance

when distance x data rate exceeds 100 Gb/s. .........................................................1

Figure 2: The Impact of High Performance Computing on the Demand for Optical Links .......3

Figure 3: A 2010 Data Center requires about 25 megawatts of power so energy saving

technology is important. .......................................................................................4

Figure 4: Traffic by data content vs year, both actual and forecast ..........................................11

Figure 5: The overview Graphic of the Optical Electronic TWG Roadmap. ...........................12

Figure 5: Generic Data Transmission Environment .................................................................14

Figure 6: Cost Comparison of Copper vs. Optical by Distance and Bandwidth ......................15

Figure 7: Telecommunication System Capacity and Traffic over 5 decades. ..........................16

Figure 8: Evolution of Telecommunications (>10Km) OE Structure ......................................17

Figure 9: The Shannon Limit and Current Results of Data Transmission Rates

Utilizing Optical Technologies .............................................................................19

Figure 10: Illustrating the Loss in db/Km vs Wavelength of Single Mode Fiber and showing

the “C” band in which the Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier provides

amplification ........................................................................................................20

Figure 11: An Upstream CATV architecture that modulates light sent from the Central

office and returns in with information impressed on it .....................................25

Figure 12: An FTTX architecture that transmits many wavelengths and then sends one

wavelength to a customer or, more often, sends each of the wavelengths

to multiple customers ...........................................................................................26

Figure 13: Evolution of Common Transceivers and Transponders. .........................................31

Figure 14: The Evolution of Transceiver Size to Increase Panel Data Density........................32

Figure 15: Improvements in Density (Gb/s/inch), Power Use and Bandwidth Density for

Various Form Factors in The Order of Their Introduction ................................33

Figure 16: Low cost Connectorless Package of a POF Source. ................................................35

Figure 17: The Above POF Market Chart from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber Market &

Technology Assessment Study – 2011” ............................................................36

Figure 18: Graphic from IGI. “Plastic Optical Fiber in Industrial Controls – 2011” ...............37

Figure 19: Typical Active Optical Cable. AOCs Do Not Utilize Optical Connectors, Only

Electrical Connectors at the Ends. The AOC Fiber Bundle Also Has a

Small Diameter Compared to the Electrical Equivalent ....................................39

Figure 20: A series of Charts with Data on Active Optical Cables. From IGI ........................40

Figure 21: An Optical Backplane concept with both electrical and optical connectors

between the cards and backplane ......................................................................41

Figure 22: “FlexPlane” Optical Backplane by Molex ..............................................................42

Figure 23: Reflex Photonics Implementation of Optical Interconnect to supplement an

Electrical Backplane .........................................................................................43

Figure 24: A Drawer from the IBM Blue Waters Super Computer ..........................................44

Figure 25: The BlueWaters Rack Structure that holds Drawers. ..............................................44

Figure 26: A Basic Method to Implement On-Card Optical IO ...............................................45

Figure 27: Provides Some MicroPOD details; close ups of the bottom BGA pattern; a top

view without the 45o connector and ribbon fiber; an array of MicroPODS

with the ribbon fiber and connector illustrating the fiber management 46

9

Sample Chapter Content – Optoelectronics (4) Figure 28: A close up of the top of the MicroPOD with and without the 45

o connector and

ribbon fiber .......................................................................................................46

Figure 29: AIO-TXN-40G 40 Gb/s Surface Mount Transceiver. .............................................47

Figure 30: An On-Card Optical Electronic Data Transmission Approach

from IBM. August 2010 ....................................................................................47

Figure 31: 8-Inch eAOC for Next Generation Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones. ............48

Figure 32: In-to and Out-of Chip SiP Package, Photo Courtesy of Reflex Photonics Inc. ......49

Figure 33: Hyper Dense Optical Module from Reflex Photonics.............................................49

Figure 34: Optical On-Card using In-to & Out-of Package Technology..................................50

Figure 35: Two Approaches for Waveguide Coupling. ............................................................50

Figure 36: Proposed Methods of Coupling Light Into and Out of Optical Substrates .............51

Figure 37: One Current View of the Place for Optical vs Copper On-Chip Interconnect ........53 Figure 38: Transceiver Shipments in units/year .......................................................................55

Figure 39: Overview of the Optical Industry Financial Situation Highlighting the Limited

R&D Investment Available .............................................................................56

Figure 40: Transceiver Revenue by Major Market Segments Historically and as Forecast

by Light Counting ............................................................................................57

Figure 41: FTTX Transceiver Revenue historically and forecast by Standard from

Light Counting ................................................................................................57

Figure 42: The decline in transceiver prices over the decade ending in 2009 ..........................58

Figure 43: Forecast Annual AOC Revenue ..............................................................................58

Figure 44: A Planar Lightwave Circuit, A Passive Device that Requires No Power ...............64

Figure 45: A Photonic Integrated Circuit Built with a Technology That Is Compatible with

CMOS Fabrication ..........................................................................................64

Figure 46: Manufacturing Process for One Product .................................................................65

10

Data rates vs distance with media as a parameter

illustrating optical dominance when distance x data rate

exceeds 100 Gb/s.

11

Summary of Critical issues, Gaps, Show Stoppers, and

Technical Needs

Distance/Applica

tion

Critical

Issues

Gaps & Show

Stoppers Technical Needs

Telecommunicati

ons

Growing

capacity

demand

Power consumption,

physical size of

higher speed

components.

Methods to transmit

more data through

provisioned fiber.

Cost CMOS electronic

speed and process

limits.

Low cost, high

volume

manufacturing

methods as market

develops. Maybe

PICs.

FTTX (including

CATV)

Growing

end user

demand

for

bandwidth

Cost, industry

structure and

regulations

High data rate, low

cost solutions

compatible with

industry structure &

regulations..

LANs Providing

the

capacity

required

Transceiver physical

size with current

technology at higher

(100+Gb/s) data

rates.

Higher speed

(100Gb/s and up)

transceivers. Low

cost multiplexing

methods.

Plastic Optical

Fiber (POF)

Automotive

Increased

volume.

Wider

adoption

Inability to compete

with glass fiber or

single mode

technology. Cost.

Lack of standards.

POF with less than

125 db/Km of

attenuation at

temperatures over

125C. Optical

amplifier.

Active Optical

Cables

Demand to

reduce power

and save

space in data

centers

Initial hardware

cost vs copper.

Limited data rate of

~ 25Gb/s/VCSEL.

Manufacturing

methods to reduce

cost.

Backplane Need to

support data

rates >

20Gb/s.

Continuing

improvement in

copper methods.

Lack of suitable

architectures to

integrate optical

technology.

A cost effective

technical solution,

especially a dual

technology connector

for the card to

backplane interface.

On-card Data density

(Gb/s per

mm2 or

Gb/s/mm),

cost

Cost. Need for

waveguides in

circuit boards.

Reliable modulated

optical source. Very

small, high density

assemblies for 1Tbs+

data rates.

In-to and Out-of

Package

Demand for

multiple Tb/s

of IO in high

end

processors

Continuing

improvement in

copper methods.

Cost effective

solution, especially

developing the optical

link, to provide 1Tbs+

data rates.

On-chip Performance

gain vs

Through

Silicon Vias

and carbon

based

interconnects

Inability to

compete with the

electrical

alternatives.

Difficulty of

achieving the data

density (Gbs/mm2)

needed to compete

with electrical

traces on-chip.

Cost effective

technical solution,

especially a light

source.