Consumer Income & Expenditures: Integrating Micro & Macro Data
description
Transcript of Consumer Income & Expenditures: Integrating Micro & Macro Data
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Consumer Income & Expenditures:
Integrating Micro & Macro Data
Clinton P. McCullyBEA Advisory Committee Meeting
November 16, 2012
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Divergent Macro vs. Micro Income Trends
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real income2000 = 100
Per capita disposable personal income (BEA)
Median household income (CPS)
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Why Has Macro Income Grown Faster?
▪ Rapid growth in non-cash income in National accounts--not captured in micro measures Supplements to wages and salaries:
Employer contributions for pensions and insurance
In-kind government social benefits▪ National accounts data fails to capture
changes in distribution of income National accounts use average (per
capita) measures Median & quintile data used in micro
measures
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Wages & Salaries vs. Supplements
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2000
= 1
00
NIPA wages & salaries
Money income wages & salariesEmployer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds
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Cash vs. In-Kind Social Benefits
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2000
= 1
00
In-kind government social benefits NIPA cash government social benefits CPS cash social benefits
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Integration Steps▪ Remove nonprofit institutions serving
households (NPISHs) from personal income & outlays
▪ Adjust scope of household income and outlays to match population coverage of household surveys
▪ Control micro income & consumption estimates to NIPA income and outlays Scale matched micro income and
consumption components Use indicators for macro components with
no micro counterparts▪ Integrated estimates reflect all NIPA
definitions and classifications
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Order of Discussion▪Data sources▪Micro and macro income and
consumption measures▪Scope adjustments ▪Matched & non-matched values ▪Income and consumption
distributions▪Results▪Issues
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Sources▪ Micro—Household surveys
Money income = Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS-ASEC)
Consumer expenditures = Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) Interview Survey Diary Survey
▪ Macro Household income and outlays = National
Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) Excludes nonprofit institutions serving households
(NPISHs) from personal income and outlays
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Household Income Measures CPS Money income
A measure of cash income Includes pension income (disbursements)
NIPA household income Includes employer pension contributions &
property income earned on pension assets—Pension assets owned by households Excludes pension disbursements—Intrasectoral
transfers Includes non-cash and imputed income
Employer insurance contributions In-kind government social benefits In-kind earnings Imputed income
Interest Owner-occupied housing—subtracts interest
& other expenses from rental value
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Household Expenditure Measures▪ CE Consumer expenditures
Measures household out-of-pocket expenditures Purchases of goods & services Interest (including mortgage) Other owner-occupied housing expenses Pension contributions & life insurance premiums Money provided to other households
▪ NIPA household outlays Pension plan and life insurance company expenses =
service charges Imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing—expenses
included in rental value Imputed financial services Imputed employee food, clothing, lodging & farm food Securities services Services paid for by employers & gov’t
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Scope Adjustments to NIPA Income & Outlays
▪ Institutional—Nursing homes, prisons, others
▪ Decedent—Those who died in reference year
▪ Residency—Exclude those not physically resident in U.S. and include those who are physically resident
▪ Domestic military on post—In noninstitutional group quarters; excluded from civilian population
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Household Income Adjustments
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2010
in b
illio
ns o
f do
llars
Household income
Scope adjustments
Value after scope adjustments
2010
in b
illio
ns o
f dol
lars
Decedents
Institutionalized
ResidencyDomestic military on post
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0
100
200
300
400
500
13
Institutional & Decedent Adjustments
2010
in b
illio
ns o
f do
llars
Medicare & Medicaid• More than one-fourth of all Medicare
& Medicaid expenditures are for those in the last year of life
• Combined with (non-deceased) nursing home inhabitants, these expenditures accounted for nearly 30 % of all Medicare & Medicaid expenditures
All other institutional/decedent expenditures
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
14
Income Coverage Ratios Ratio of CPS-ASEC values to adjusted
NIPA monetary income values for selected estimates
Wag
es &
sa
lari
es
Soci
al
Secu
rity
Ren
ts &
ro
yalt
ies Proprietor
s’ incomeDividends
& interest
2010
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1
15
Interest Comparison Household monetary interest in the NIPAs includes
monetary interest received by pension plans & other entities holding household assets Accounts for part of gap between NIPA & CPS
interest
Received by pension plans
All other
Household Monetary Interest
2010
in b
illio
ns o
f do
llars
CPS
Hou
seho
ld In
tere
st
• Household monetary interest =
$515.5 billion• Excluding pension plans
=$338.8 billion
vs. $159.7 billion
for CPS interest
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
16
Consumption Coverage Ratios Ratio of CES values to adjusted NIPA household
consumption expenditures (HCE) for selected estimates
Ow
ner-
occu
pied
re
ntH
ouse
hold
fu
els
Purc
hase
s of
ve
hicl
esTe
nant
-occ
upie
d re
ntFo
od a
t hom
e
Clo
thin
g &
foot
wea
r
Res
taur
ants
/hot
els
Alc
ohol
/hom
e
Self-reported
Regular housing-related expenditures well
reported
Large irregular expenditures well-
reported
“Sin” expenditures not well-reported
Small frequently purchased items not well reported
2010
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Unmatched Values▪ Macro values with no micro
counterparts Use indicators in these cases
Examples: Financial services furnished without
payment to depositors Use value of checking accounts & time
deposits from CES as indicator to distribute expenditures
Interest income received by private employees and by public employees on pension funds
Use wages & salaries of employees participating in employer-sponsored pension plans
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Income & Consumption Breakdowns
▪ Income quintiles Uses equivalized household disposable
income Adjusts for differences in household size and
composition Uses Oxford (OECD) modified scale
Weights: 1.0 for household head 0.5 for each additional adult household
member 0.3 for each child
Reflects how households share resources & take advantage of economies of scale
Similar to three-parameter scale used to produce equivalence-adjusted income in CPS-ASEC
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Income & Consumption Breakdowns (cont.)
Main source of income Employee compensation Self-employment income Property income
Rental income Interest Dividends
Transfers and other Government social benefits Transfers from
NPISHs Business Other households
Household type
Res
taur
ants
/hot
els
Alc
ohol
/hom
e
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Income & Consumption Breakdowns (cont.)
▪ Household type Single up to 65 Single greater than 65 Single with children under 18 Two adults up to 65 Two adults with at least one greater than
65 Two adults with children under 18 Other household types
Includes children 18 or older living with parents
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Income Distribution ComparisonShares of Aggregate Equivalence-Adjusted Income by
Quintile, 2010
CPS
-ASE
CH
ouse
hold
Inc
ome
Dis
posa
ble
hous
ehol
d In
com
e
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Lowest 2nd Middle 4th Highest0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
100.0%
Prop
erty
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Shares of Household Income by Quintile
Gov
t So
cial
Ben
efits
2010
Earn
ed
Inco
me
Mid
dle
4th
4th
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-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
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Real Mean Disposable Income by Quintile
Percent change from 2006 to 2010 in real mean household disposable income by quintile
2006 = $217,452Earned income: - $8,199Property income: -$3,355Gov’t social ben’s/other: +
$3,576(Minus) Taxes: -$4,857
2010 = $214,330
2006 = $21,807Earned income: - $1,903
Gov’t social ben’s/other: +$1,994
(Minus) Taxes: -$2,6962010 = $24,424
Lowest 2nd Middle 4th Highest Total
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Integration Issues▪ Pension plans
Pension income not treated as income in national accounts
▪ Capital gains taxes Capital gains not part of income in
national accounts Capital gains taxes are included in
personal taxes▪ High income households
Scaling does not capture possible effects of high income nonparticipants in household surveys
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Alternative Treatment of Pension Plans
▪ Pension plans Treat employer-sponsored pension plans as
social insurance Akin to treatment of Social Security Contributions & property income earned on
employer-sponsored pension plans excluded from household income
Disbursements (pension income) from employer-sponsored plans included in household income
Better alignment of income and consumption
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Capital Gains Taxes▪ Identify cases (in micro data) where
income taxes are large relative to earned income and property income In some cases, taxes exceed income from
other sources, resulting in negative disposable income
▪ Estimate income tax payments on earned income and property income Might use NBER TAXSIM model
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High Income Coverage
CPS
-ASE
CH
ouse
hold
Inco
me
Dis
posa
ble
hous
ehol
d In
com
e
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Lowest quintile 2nd quintile Middle quintile 4th quintile Highest quintile
Perc
ent o
f tot
al
Money income (Census Bureau) IRS adjusted gross income less capital gains
2009 Shares of Income
Though there are differences in definition, this comparison suggests that CPS-ASEC estimates may not be fully capturing the high end of the income distribution.
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High Income Coverage
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Interest Dividends Non-farm self-employment(including S corporations)
Billi
ons o
f dol
lars
IRS-CPS Gap $1,000,000 and greater AGI
Interest, dividend and self-employment income of $1,000,000+ households is very similar to difference between CPS-ASEC & IRS totals.
2009
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High Income Coverage 2009
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Number of returns Interest Dividends Self-employmentincomeLess than $1,000,000 AGI $1,000,000 + AGI
0.2 % of returns Looked at another way, the
shares of interest,
dividends, and self-employment
income accounted for by top 0.2% of tax filers are
quite substantial