CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · 2019-05-29 · tRENDS aROUND thE wORlD ... 4 QuArter 3 2016 -...

1Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company

CONSUMER CONFIDENCECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD

Quarter 3, 2016

2016 Consumer ConfidenCe series | 3rd ediTion

2 Quarter 3 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report2

GlObal CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REFlECtS UNEvEN tRENDS aROUND thE wORlD

• Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedonepointfromthesecondquartertoascoreof99.

• ConfidencegainswereseenthroughoutmostmeasuredmarketsinAsia-Pacific,LatinAmericaandEurope.Meanwhile,confidencedecreasedinfourofsixAfrica/MiddleEastmarketsandinoneoftwoNorthAmericanmarkets.

• Fiveoftheworld’stop10economiespostedoptimisticscoresof100orhigher:U.S.(106),China(106),U.K.(106),Germany(100)andIndia(133).

• ConcernsaboutterrorismincreasedacrossEurope,NorthAmericaandAsia-Pacificinthethirdquarter.

• InEurope,consumerconfidenceimprovedin26of34measuredmarketsfromthesecondquarter.TheU.K.’sscoreincreasedeightpoints.

• InAsia-Pacific,confidenceincreasedin10of14countries,whilefourmarketswereflatfromthesecondquarter.RobustimprovementscamefromHongKong,ThailandandSingapore.

• InLatinAmerica,confidenceincreasedinsixofsevenmarkets,includingBrazil,whichposteditsfirstupswingintwoyears.

• IntheAfrica/MiddleEastregion,SouthAfricapostedasolidconfidenceincreaseofninepoints.

Third-quarterglobalconsumerconfidenceremainedstableat99,an

increaseofonepointfromthesecondquarterandnochangefromthe

previousyear(Q32015).Country-levelscores,however,varieddramatically

throughouttheregions,reflectingconsiderableeconomicdiversityaround

theworld.InAsia-Pacific,consumerconfidencescoresrangedfromahigh

of133toalowof46,withsimilardivergentscoresinEurope(from107

to50),LatinAmerica(from104to57)andAfrica/MiddleEast(from108

to70).InNorthAmerica,however,confidencescoresweremoreclosely

alignedintheU.S.(106)andCanada(97).

3Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company 3

About the GlobAl Survey MethodoloGy

Thefindingsinthissurveyarebased

onanonlinemethodologyin63

countries.Whileanonlinesurvey

methodologyallowsfortremendous

scaleandglobalreach,itprovides

aperspectiveonlyonthehabitsof

existinginternetusers,nottotal

populations.Indevelopingmarkets

whereonlinepenetrationisstill

growing,audiencesmaybeyounger

andmoreaffluentthanthese

countries’generalpopulations.

ThreeSub-SaharanAfricancountries

(Ghana,KenyaandNigeria)utilizea

mobilesurveymethodologyandare

notincludedintheglobalorMiddle

East/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.Inaddition,

surveyresponsesarebasedon

claimedbehavior,ratherthanactual

metereddata.Culturaldifferences

inreportingsentimentarelikely

factorsinthemeasurement

ofeconomicoutlookacross

countries.Thereportedresultsdo

notattempttocontrolorcorrect

forthesedifferences;therefore,

cautionshouldbeexercisedwhen

comparingacrosscountriesand

regions,particularlyacrossregional

boundaries.

Overall,thelatestsurveyshowedconfidencegainsthroughoutmost

marketsinAsia-Pacific(andnodeclinesfromthepreviousquarter),

LatinAmericaandEurope.Conversely,confidencedeclinedinfourofsix

Africa/MiddleEastmarketsandinoneoftwoNorthAmericanmarkets.

Regionally,Asia-Pacific’sscoreof109increasedtwo-pointsfromthesecond

quarter,followedbyNorthAmericaat105,whichdeclinedsixpoints.

ConfidenceinAfrica/MiddleEastfelltwopointsto87,whileconfidence

inLatinAmericaposteditsfirstupswingin2016,withafive-pointriseto

83.Europeshowedslowconsumerconfidencemomentum:aone-point

increaseinthesecondquarterandatwo-pointriseinthethirdquarter

returnedtheregiontoitsyear-agoscoreof81.

“Economiccircumstancesstillvarywidelyglobally,andwithinregionssuchas

Asia-Pacific.SoitisnotablethatintheAsia-Pacificregion,overallconsumer

confidencehasbeenresilient,ashaveconsumerspendingtrends,”said

LouiseKeely,executivevicepresident,Nielsen.“Still,Asia-Pacificisanarea

towatch:Theregion’srelativelystronggrowthisdependentinpartonglobal

economicconditions,includingthoseofChina.”

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedAug.10–Sept.2,2016,fiveofthe

world’stop10economiespostedscoresof100orhigher,upfromthree

thatreachedthemilestoneinthesecondquarter.TheU.K.(106)and

Germany(100)joinedIndia(133),theU.S.(106)andChina(106)withat-

orabove-baselineconsumerconfidencescoresinthethirdquarter.Index

levelsfortheotherfivebiggesteconomiesshowedmixedlevelsofbelow-

the-baselinepessimism:Canada(97),Brazil(84),Japan(71),France(69)

andItaly(57).Intotal,16of63markets—representingcountriesfromall

fiveregions,andmarkingfourmoremarketsthanthesecondquarter—

reportedoptimisticlevelsabove100.

IntheemergingBRICSmarkets,Brazilpostedaconfidenceupswingof10

pointsinthethirdquarter.“Brazilappearstobethroughtheworstand

perhapssettorebound,”saidKeely.“Consumerconfidencereflectsthe

increasedoptimismaboutoveralleconomicprospects.IfBrazilisableto

successfullypulloutofrecessionandconsumerspendingcanrecover,that

wouldcontributetooverallstrengthintheregion.”

TheNielsenConsumerConfidenceIndexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediate-spendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.Withinacountry,period-

to-periodmovementsofsevenpointsormoreareconsideredstatistically

significant.Atagloballevel,movementsoftwopointsarestatistically

significant;ataregionallevel,three-tofour-pointmovementsare

statisticallysignificant.TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence

andSpendingIntentions,establishedin2005,measuresconsumer

confidence,majorconcernsandspendingintentionsamongmorethan

30,000respondentswithinternetaccessin63countries.

4 Quarter 3 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report

GlobAl CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe Survey

63 Countries – 3-Month trenD Q3-2016 nielsen ConsuMer ConfiDenCe inDex*

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicate

degreesofoptimism/pessimism.

+3-1

+7-5

0

-7

+8

0

+2

-3

+5

-4

+4

+4

+1

+6

+2

+5

+2

+8

-4

+6

+10

+4+5

+6+2+4+1+4 +9

+2

+10+14

+4

+3+5

0

-3

+3

+2

-1

+7

+2

+2

+5

-11

+5

+3

+3

+1

+70

0

+5

87 M

EXICO 89 M

ALAYSIA 89

MO

ROCCO

90 CO

LOM

BIA

91 POLAND

91 AUSTRALIA

VENEZUELA 57

91 SWEDEN

FINLAND 64

94 SINGAPORE

HUNGARY 64

RUSSIA 67

94 TURKEY

SERBIA 67

95 HONG KONG

FRANCE

69

95 ISRAEL

SLOVENIA 69

96 NETHERLANDS

EGYPT 70

97 CANADA

PORTUGAL 70

97 SWITZERLAND

JAPAN 71

99 CZECH REPUBLIC

ARGENTINA 73 100 GERMANY

CROATIA 73

100 IRELAND

LATVIA 74

100 SAUDI ARABIA

TAIWAN 75

101 NEW ZEALAND

LITHUANIA 76

101 PAKISTAN

SPAIN 77

104 PERU

SLOVAKIA 8

1

106 CHINA

BELGIUM 81

106 UNITED KINGDOM

CHILE 81

106 UNITED STATES

KAZAKHSTAN

81

107

VIETNAM

ESTO

NIA

84

107

DENM

ARK

BRAZ

IL

84

108

THAI

LAND

BULG

ARIA

84

108

UNIT

ED A

RAB

EMIR

ATES

AUST

RIA

8

5

122

IND

ON

ESIA

NO

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8

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UTH

AFR

ICA

87

ROM

ANIA

8

7

+2

ITALY 57

0

132

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

MORE CONFIDENT

+4

GREECE56

BELARUS55

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

99 ( +1 change from Q2-2016 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 63 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ3-2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*

-2

UKRAIN

E

GLOBALAVERAGE

50

-1

+1

SOU

TH KO

REA46

COUNTRY —INDEX

+5

133

IN

DIA

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

LESS C

ONFIDENT

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM


63 Countries – 3-Month trenD Q3-2016 nielsen ConsuMer ConfiDenCe inDex*

5

U.S. CONCERNS abOUt tERRORISM aND pOlItICal INStabIlIty ESCalatEDU.S.consumerconfidenceremainedonsolidfootinginthethirdquarterwithascoreof106,despiteadeclineofsevenpointsfromthesecondquarter.MorethanhalfofU.Srespondentswereconfidentthatpersonalfinances(61%)andimmediate-spendingintentions(52%)wouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,adeclineofninepercentagepointsandsixpercentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Thepositiveoutlookforjobsalsoretreatedfrom56%inthesecondquarterto50%inthelatestsurvey.

U.S.respondentsalsoshowedapullbackinspendingintentionsinthethirdquarter.Whileintentionstosaveincreasedtwopercentagepointsto46%,planstospendacrossalllifestyleareasdeclined,withthebiggestquarterlydropofeightpercentagepointsforholidays/vacations(24%),followedbydeclinesofsevenpercentagepointsforout-of-homeentertainment(20%),sixpercentagepointsforhomeimprovements(24%)andfourpercentagepointsfornewtechnology(18%).

“ThoughtheU.S.labormarketisstrong—withemploymentandwagesrising—thisisanuncertaintimeforAmericanswiththeapproachingelectionandcontinuedterrorismconcerns,”saidKeely.“Whileconsumerconfidencehasnotbeenseverelydented,consumeruncertaintyisreflectedinthemoderateweakeningofdiscretionaryspendingintentions.”

Whiletheeconomyremainedthebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernfor31%ofU.S.respondents,itdeclinedthreepercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter,asworriesaboutterrorismandpoliticalstabilityincreased.Morethanone-fifthofU.S.respondents(21%)saidterrorismwastheirbiggestorsecond-biggestconcern—ariseoffourpercentagepointsfromthesecondquarterandthehighestpercentthecountryhasseeninthesevenyearsthesentimenthasbeentrackedonthesurvey.WithU.S.presidentialelectionsapproachinginNovember,apprehensionaboutthecountry’spoliticalstabilityescalatedto18%,risingfourpercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter.Othertopconcernscenteredonhealth(15%),debt(14%)andjobsecurity(12%).


Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32016

InCanada,confidenceincreasedtwopointsto97inthesecondquarter,asallthreeconfidenceindicatorsimprovedfromthepreviousquarter.MorethanhalfofCanadianrespondentssaidpersonalfinanceswouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months(60%),anincreaseoftwopercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter.Whilefavorablejobprospectsentiment(44%)andimmediate-spendingintentions(43%)alsoincreasedinthethirdquarter—risingthreepercentagepointsandfourpercentagepoints,respectively—theyremainedatlowerlevels.

Theeconomywasthebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernfor29%ofCanadianrespondents,representingnochangefromthesecondquarter.Canadianrespondentsalsoexpressedconcernaboutincreasingfoodprices(22%ofrespondents,downthreepercentagepointsfromQ2),increasingutilitybills(22%,upfivepoints)anddebt(18%,downtwopoints).

u.S. CoNCerNS Are ShIFtING

WorrIeS About terrorISM ANd polItCAl StAbIlIty roSe to A SeveN-yeAr Survey hIGhBiggesT or seCond-BiggesT ConCern

The eConomy healTh

JoB seCuriTyTerrorism

PoliTiCal sTaBiliTy deBT

32% 18% 15%14% 6% 15%Q3 2015

31%

-1%

15%

-3%

12%

-3%

21%

7%

18%

12%

14%

-1%

Q3 2016

inCrease deCrease


thE ROaD tO RECOvERy IN EUROpE haS bEEN SlOw aND ChallENGINGInEurope,consumerconfidenceimprovedin26of34measuredmarketsfromthesecondquarter,withscoresrangingfromahighof107inDenmarktoalowof50inUkraine.Infouroftheregion’stopfiveeconomies,consumerconfidenceincreased:itrosebyfourpointsinGermany(to100),eightpointsintheU.K.(106),threepointsinFrance(69)andtwopointsinItaly(57).Spainpostedadeclineofthreepointsto77.

Whileconfidenceisstillatlowlevelsinmanycountriesintheregion,overallindicatorsmovedinapositivedirection,ledbyanincreaseofthreepercentagepointsinjobconfidence(to32%).Therewereone-pointincreasesinpersonal-financesentiment(42%)andimmediate-spendingintentions(34%).

Germanrespondentsremainedthemostoptimisticaboutjobprospectsintheregion,as60%ratetheoutlookgoodorexcellentinthenext12months—ariseofonepercentagepointfromthesecondquarter.Thejoboutlookalsoimproved10percentagepointsintheU.K.(to46%),eightpointseachinSweden(42%)andtheNetherlands(41%),andsevenpointseachinPoland(37%)andSwitzerland(56%).Denmarkrespondentsweremostconfidentaboutpersonalfinances,at64%,adeclinefrom72%inthesecondquarter.

“Germanconsumerconfidenceroseinthethirdquartertoacountry-recordlevelof100fromayearagodespiteaslightbutsteadydeclineoverthepreviousthreequarters,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Joboptimismisstillatahighlevel,butamorepositivesentimentisalsoreflectedintheperceptionofpersonalfinancesandthewillingnesstospendmoney.WhilethegrowthrateoftheGermaneconomyisexpectedtobesomewhatslowerinthesecondhalfoftheyear,moreconsumersbelievenowisagoodtimetospend.Nevertheless,geopoliticaleventsofthepastseveralmonthsdidnotleaveGermansunaffected.Terrorismwasbyfarthebiggestconcerninthethirdquarter,butithasnotyethadanimmediateimpactontheconsumerclimateinGermany.”


Intheimmediatepost-Brexit-voteU.K.,consumerconfidenceroseeightpointsto106,asthejoboutlooksurged10percentagepointsto46%,personal-financialsentimentrosefourpercentagepointsto55%,andimmediate-spendingintentionsincreasedthreepercentagepointsto53%.InaseparateNielsenBrexitsurveyconductedmonthlyintheU.K.totrackpost-Brexitsentimentamongrespondentswhoexpressedpro-andanti-Brexitviews,thelatestSeptemberresultsshowedconsumerconfidencereturnedtoapre-Brexitlevelof102.Nielseniscloselymonitoringtheongoingconsumersentimentinthelead-uptotheBrexitnegotiations,whichwillbeginMarch2017,whenArticle50oftheLisbontreatyisformallyactivated.

“It’sagoodtimetobeaconsumerintheU.K.,”saidSteveSmith,managingdirector,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Confidenceremainsupbeat,thankstohighemployment,limitedinflation,lowpricesandagreatsummer.WithChristmastradingstartingsoon,weexpectthepricecompetitionacrossretailtocontinue.SpeculationthatconsumerconfidencewouldplummetintheaftermathoftheBrexitvotehasnotyetbeenfulfilled,anduntilinflationstartstocreepinduring2017andshoppersknowmoreabouttheplanforBrexit,wedon’texpectsentimentorspendtochangemuch.”

TerrorismcontinuedtobealeadingconcernforEuropeansinthethirdquarter.Nearlythreein10Europeanrespondents(29%)saidterrorismwastheirbiggestorsecond-biggestconcern,anincreaseoffivepercentagepointsfromthesecondquarterandanewhighfortheregion.ConcernsaboutterrorismwerehighestinTurkey(59%,placingitinthetoptwoconcerns),France(48%,upeightpercentagepointsfromQ2),Germany(44%,up11points),Switzerland(40%,upsixpoints),Belgium(38%,upsevenpoints),Austria(34%,upsevenpoints),theNetherlands(34%,upsevenpoints),theCzechRepublic(33%,upsixpoints),Italy(32%,up11points)andtheU.K.(29%,uptwopoints).Theeconomyandjobsecurityalsoweremajorconcerns,citedby19%and18%ofEuropeanrespondents,respectively.

“TheEuropeaneconomiesappeartobesluggish,andthereisincreasedpessimismaboutcontinuedexpansioninEurope,thoughinflationhasrisenrecentlyintheEuroarea,”saidKeely.“Still,Europeanconsumerconfidencehasnottakenahit.Thatmaybebecauselabormarketshavecontinuedtostrengthenoverall,thoughthereisadditionalroomforimprovement.”

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Consumer ConfidenCe inCreased in mosT euroPean marKeTs in Q3

Denmark

U.K.

Ireland

Germany

CzechRepublic

Switzerland

Netherlands

Israel

Turkey

Poland

Sweden

Romania

Norway

Austria

Estonia

Bulgaria

Slovakia

Kazakhstan

Belgium

Spain

Lithuania

Latvia

Croatia

Portugal

Slovenia

France

Russia

Serbia

Hungary

Finland

Italy

Greece

Belarus

Ukraine

index

PerCenTage-PoinT Change from Q2 2016

inCrease

deCreaseno Change

107

106

100

100

99

97

96

95

94

91

91

87

86

85

84

84

81

81

81

77

76

74

73

70

69

69

67

67

64

64

57

56

55

50

-5

8

4

4

1

6

5

2

-4

4

1

1

4

2

14

5

0

4

5

-3

3

-1

7

5

5

3

1

3

7

0

2

4

0

-2


TurKeyfranCe

germanyswiTzerland

BelgiumausTria

neTherlandsCzeCh rePuBliC

iTalyu.K.

denmarKswedennorwayPoland

slovaKiaisrael

sPainBulgaria

irelandCroaTia

PorTugalKazaKhsTan

hungaryslovenia

serBialaTvia

romaniafinlandesTonia

russiagreeCe

liThuaniauKraineBelarus

59%48%44%40%38%34%34%33%32%29%26%26%26%25%23%23%22%21%21%

20%20%19%19%18%17%16%16%15%14%10%9%6%5%4%

Q3 2016

122211819131610178

1310111584

1216106

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13106

159

1010665

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yeAr-over-yeAr perCeNtAGe poINt

ChANGe

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a MORE UpbEat SENtIMENt abOUNDED aCROSS thE aSIa-paCIFIC REGIONTheAsia-Pacificregionrecordedthehighestandlowestconfidencescores

ofNielsen’s63-countrysurvey,rangingfromahighof133inIndiatoalowof

46inSouthKorea.Overall,however,economicsentimentwasmoreupbeat

inthethirdquarter,asconfidenceincreasedin10of14countries,while

fourmarketsremainedflatfromthesecondquarter.Robustconfidence

improvementscamefromHongKong(95,upeightpoints),Thailand(108,

upsevenpoints),Singapore(94,upsixpoints),India(133,upfivepoints)

andNewZealand(101,upfivepoints).ThePhilippines(132),Vietnam(107),

China(106)andAustralia(91)wereflatfromthesecondquarter.Sevenof

14Asia-Pacificmarketspostedscoresabovetheoptimismbaselineof100

points,withNewZealandreachingthemilestoneforthefirsttimesincethe

firstquarterof2015.

“ThemoodofNewZealandconsumersisimproving,alongwiththeNew

Zealanddollar,dairypricesandtheeconomy,”saidRobClark,managing

director,NielsenNewZealand.“Theconsumerpackaged-goodsmarket

continuestogrow:Year-on-yearsalesincreasedby2.1%,andunitsales

grewby2.5%,whileinflationremainslow.Astableeconomyiscreating

morejobs.MorethanhalfofNewZealandrespondents(54%)predictjob

prospectswillbegoodorexcellentoverthecomingyear,upninepercentage

pointsfromthepreviousquarter(46%).”

Regionally,allconfidenceindicatorsimprovedinthethirdquarter.Sixin10

respondentsintheregionwereconfidentaboutjobprospectsinthecoming

year,comparedwithaglobalaverageof48%.Asia-Pacificrespondents

werealsooptimisticabouttheirpersonalfinances,with63%believingthey

wouldbegoodorexcellentinnext12months,anincreaseoftwopercentage

pointsfromthesecondquarter.Halfofregionalrespondentswereconfident

aboutimmediate-spendingintentions,anincreaseofonepointfromthe

secondquarter.Theoutlookforjobsandsentimentaboutpersonalfinances

intheyearaheadincreasedin11of14markets.

InChina,theregion’seconomicengineandtheworld’slargestdeveloping

economy,confidenceremainedunchangedfromthesecondquarterat106,

thesamelevelasoneyearago.Sixin10Chineserespondentswereconfident


abouttheirpersonalfinances(60%)andjobprospects(58%)inthe

comingyear,andjustunderhalf(49%)saidnowisagoodtimetospend.

“China’seconomyisgenerallyingoodshapeandontrackforstable

economicgrowthandrestructuring,”saidYanXuan,president,Nielsen

GreaterChina.“Whilefacingcontinueddownwardpressureandglobal

marketuncertainties,Chinamayexperiencesomeshort-termpains

duringitseconomictransformation,butthecountryhashugepotential,

sufficientadvantagesandplentyofspaceformaneuvering.Thecountry’s

neweconomyisvibrant,newbusinessesarebooming,andnewgrowth

momentumisaccumulating.Theserviceindustryaccountedformore

than50%ofGDP,whilehigh-techproductionintheindustrialsector

grew10.2%yearonyear.Inaddition,consumptioncontributedmore

than70%tooverallGDPgrowthinthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear.”

India’sconsumerconfidencescorereturnedto133,onepointbelow

thefirst-quarterscore,afteratemporarydropinthesecondquarter.All

confidenceindicatorsincreasedtonearfirst-quarterlevels:Personal-

financesentimentincreasedfivepercentagepointsto83%,thejob

outlookincreasedfourpercentagepointsto82%,andimmediate-

spendingintentionsrosefourpercentagepointsto68%.

“InIndia,therenewedlevelsofconsumerconfidenceinthethirdquarter

isinlinewiththeobservationthatsecondquarterwasatemporarydip;

testimonythatthefundamentalsoftheeconomyremainstrong,”said

PrasunBasu,President-SouthAsia,Nielsen.“Thisisfurthersupported

bydelayedbutgoodmonsoons,controlledinflation,apositiveeconomic

outlookandtheonsetofthefestiveseason.Thefast-movingconsumer

goodsmarketshowsasimilarpatternofbouncebackinthethird

quarter,followingamutedsecondquarter.Theriseinconfidenceis

supportedbytheIndianconsumers’viewofimprovedjobprospectsand

stateofpersonalfinances.”

HongKong’sconsumerconfidencesawaboostinthethirdquarterafter

twopreviousquartersofdeclines.Personal-financialsentimentrose

ninepercentagepointsfromthesecondquarterto54%,theoutlookfor

jobsincreasedninepercentagepointsto32%,andimmediate-spending

intentionsjumpedeightpercentagepointsto46%.

Whilethebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernsremainedrelatively

unchangedintheregionfromthesecondquarter,worriesabout

terrorismincreasedfivepercentagepointsto11%—thehighest

percentagetheregionhasseeninthesevenyearsthesentimenthas

beentrackedonthesurvey.Thetopconcernsintheregioncontinued

tobecenteredontheeconomy(citedby32%),work/lifebalance(25%),

health(24%)andjobsecurity(21%).

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

China

NewZealand

HongKong

Singapore

Australia

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

133

132

122

108

107

106

101

95

94

91

89

75

71

46

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN 10 OF 14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q3


index

PerCenTage-PoinT Change from Q2 2016

5

0

3

7

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0

5

8

6

0

2

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1



CONFIDENCE INlatIN aMERICaN MOvED IN a pOSItIvE DIRECtIONWhiletheregionalconsumerconfidencescoreforLatinAmericawaslowat83,sentimentmovedinapositivedirection,risingfivepointsfromthesecondquarter.Confidenceincreasedinsixofsevenmarketsintheregion,wherescoresrangedfromahighof104inPerutoalowof57inVenezuela.Venezuela’sscoredeclinedonepointfromthesecondquarter.

Regionally,therewereincreasesinallconfidenceindicators,withthebiggestriseinpersonal-financesentiment,whichjumpedsevenpercentagepointsfromthesecondquarterto58%.Whileanoptimisticoutlookforjobsinthenext12monthswaslowat26%,itwasanimprovementfrom21%inthesecondquarter.Immediate-spendingintentionsincreasedfourpercentagepointsfromthesecondquarterto31%.

Brazil,theregion’slargesteconomy,posteditsfirstconsumerconfidenceupswingintwoyears,rising10pointsto84fromthesecondquarter.Personalfinance-sentimentjumped12percentagepointsto63%,theoutlookforjobsroseeightpercentagepointsto24%,andimmediate-spendingintentionsincreasedfivepercentagepointsto33%fromthesecondquarter.

“InBrazil,therapidrecoveryofconsumerconfidence,amidamorestablepoliticalscenario,reflectsamorepositiveoutlookforasustainableeconomicexpansioncycleinthecomingyears,”saidLuisArjona,managingdirector,NielsenBrazil.“Recentgovernmentactionstostrengthenfiscalpolicyandpromoteinvestmentshavealreadyhadapositiveimpactonlowerinflation(from10.7%in2015toaprojected7%in2016)andinterestrates.Whileactualconsumptionspendingmayexperienceagradualincrease,consumersentimentisclearlymorepositiveasweapproachtheholidayseason.”

Inthefiveothercountriesmeasuredintheregion,confidenceincreasedtwopointsinPeru(to104),fivepointsinColombia(90),fourpointsinMexico(87),threepointsinChile(81)andtwopointsinArgentina(73).

Theeconomywasthebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernfor34%ofLatinAmericanrespondents,representingnochangefromthepreviousthreequarters.Economicconcernswerefollowedbyworriesaboutjobsecurity(citedby24%,downtwopercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter)andcrime(21%,nochangefromsecondquarter).Otherconcernswereincreasingfoodprices(18%)andhealth(17%),eachofwhichincreasedonepercentagepoint.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN 6 OF 7 LATIN AMERICA MARKETS IN Q3


Peru

venezuela

104

57

2

-1

mexiCo

874

argenTina

732

ColomBia

905

Brazil

8410

Chile

813


indexPerCenTage-PoinT Change from Q2 2016


CONFIDENCE DEClINED IN FOUR OF SIx MIDDlE EaSt/aFRICa MaRkEtS InthesixMiddleEast/Africacountriesmeasured,confidencescores

rangedfromahighof108intheUnitedArabEmirates(aone-point

decreasefromthesecondquarter)toalowof70inEgypt(an11-point

decrease).Regionally,confidencefelltwopointsto87,theregion’s

lowestreadingsinceQ12013,asoptimismfellinfourmarketsfromthe

secondquarter.

Confidencescoreswereatorjustabovetheoptimismbaselinefor

Pakistan(101)andSaudiArabia(100),despitedeclinesofthreeand

fourpoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Themostrobust

confidenceincreaseintheregioncamefromSouthAfrica,withanine-

pointriseto87.Morocco’sconfidencealsoincreased,risingsixpointsto

89inthethirdquarter.

“InSouthAfrica,theeconomicenvironmentcontinuestobechallenging,

butconsumeroptimismwasbuoyedinthethirdquarteramidseveral

positivedevelopmentsinthecountry,”saidBryanSun,countryleader,

NielsenAfrica.“TheGDPgrowthrateroseto3.3%inthesecondquarter,

recoveringfroma1.2%contractioninthepreviousperiod.It’sthe

highestgrowthratesincethefourthquarterof2014,mainlyboostedby

manufacturing,miningandrealestateactivities.Whilefoodinflationis

worseningduetothedrought,theoverallconsumerpriceindex(CPI)

hasbeenstable,andlendingratesdidnotriseasexpected.Additionally,

localgovernmentelectionsheldinAugustresultedinamajorpartyshift

thatpromisedsignificantreforminservicedeliveryandanti-corruption,

whichshouldpositivelyaffectthejobmarket.”


indexPerCenTage-PoinT Change from Q2 2016

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN FOUR OF SIX MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS IN Q3


-1

-3

-4

9

-11

6

uniTed araB emiraTes

PaKisTan

saudi araBia

souTh afriCa

egyPT

moroCCo

108

101

100

87

70

89


Egypt’sconfidencescoreof70isthelowestscoreinthe10yearsthe

countryindexhasbeentrackedontheNielsensurvey.Personal-finance

sentimentdeclinedsevenpercentagepointsto42%,theoutlookfor

jobswentdownsixpercentagepointsto25%,andimmediate-spending

intentionsdecreasedeightpercentagepointsto23%fromthesecond

quarter.

“InEgypt,localcurrencydevaluationagainstthedollarrecentlyfell

toarecordlow,andpriceshaveincreasedacrossallverticals,”said

TamerElaraby,managingdirector,NielsenEgypt.“Amidthecurrent

situation,consumerconfidenceintheeconomyhasdeclinedbydouble

digitsinthethirdquarter.Stepsareunderwaytosecureabailoutbythe

InternationalMonetaryFundtoeasethecurrentsituationandtoincrease

suppliesofbasicgoodsoverthecomingmonths.Dependingonmultiple

economiccorrectionsduetotakeplace,wehopetoseeamoreoptimistic

sentimentinthenextquarter.”

Jobsecuritywasthebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernfor29%ofAfrica/

MiddleEastrespondents,anincreaseofonepercentagepointfrom

thesecondquarter.Jobconcernswerefollowedbyworriesaboutthe

economy(26%)andincreasingfoodprices(16%);bothconcernsshowed

nochangefromthesecondquarter.Worryaboutwork/lifebalance(15%)

wasuptwopercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter,andconcern

aboutparents’welfareandhappiness(13%)wasdownonepercentage

point.


CONFIDENCE CONtINUED tO ClIMb IN kENyaOfthethreesub-SaharanAfricancountriesmeasuredbyNielsenusinga

mobilesurveymethodology(Nigeria,KenyaandGhana),Kenyareplaced

Nigeriawiththehighestconsumerconfidencescore,risingsixpoints

fromthesecondquarter—thethirdconsecutivequarterithasincreased.

Nigeria’sscoreof113wasadeclineofninepointsfromthesecond

quarter—thelowestscoreforthecountryinthethree-yearhistoryofthe

Nielsenmobilesurvey.Ghana’sscorerosefivepointsto109afterthree

previousquartersat104.1

InKenya,immediate-spendingintentionsincreased21percentagepoints

fromthesecondquarter,risingto53%ofrespondentswhosaidnowis

agoodtimetospend.Personalfinance-sentimentalsoincreasedinthe

secondquarter,jumpingsixpercentagepointsto72%.Meanwhile,job-

prospectsentimentdecreasedfourpercentagepointsfromthesecond

quarterto56%.

InGhana,allthreeconfidenceindicatorsincreasedinthethirdquarter.

Theoutlookforjobsrose13percentagepointsfromthesecondquarter,

followedbypersonal-financesentiment(78%),whichincreasednine

percentagepoints,andimmediate-spendingintentions(42%),which

jumpedsevenpercentagepoints.HalfofGhanarespondentssaidthey

hadsparecash—anincreaseof16percentagepointsfromthesecond

quarter.

“InGhana,therearesignsofgeneralmoodimprovementaspower

supply,exchangeratesandinflationstabilizes,”saidAbhikGupta,

managingdirector,NielsenEastandWestAfrica.“Thisisdueto

retailers’perceivedviewonimprovementsintheeaseofdoingbusiness

inGhana,anincreaseinconsumerspendinstores,andgrowing

consumerwillingnesstotrynewproducts.Ghanaianconsumers

alsodisplaymorepositivesentimentaboutjobprospectsbutremain

priceconsciousintoday’shigh-inflationenvironment,inwhich60%

ofconsumersbasetheirproductchoiceonpriceandaffordability.

CombinedwiththisareastableGDPgrowthoutlookandbusinessviews

attheirmostfavorablelevelssincethesecondquarterof2014.”

1Ghana,KenyaandNigeriawereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementofconsumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurveymethodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother63countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Therefore,thesethreeSub-SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalindexdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.


Conversely,allthreeconfidenceindicatorsdeclinedinNigeriafromthe

secondquarter.Immediate-spendingintentionsdeclinedmost,dropping

13percentagepointsto35%.Theoutlookforjobsdeclinedseven

percentagepointsto58%,andpersonal-financesentimentdeclinedfive

percentagepointsto75%.Justoverone-thirdofNigeriarespondents

(36%)saidtheyhadsparecash,downfromnearlyhalf(49%)inthe

secondquarter.

“Nigerianmarketconditionsremainextremelyconstrained,following

theslumpincommodityprices—inparticularoil,”saidGupta.“Fuel

andpowersupplyissuesalsohaveplaguedtheeconomy,ashavethe

foreign-exchangecrisisandthedevaluationofNigeria’scurrency,the

naira.InAprilthisyear,theIMFrevisedtheNigerian2016growthrate

downfromtheoriginalforecastof3.2%to2.3%.Thefivemainreasons

forthiswereloweroilprices,shortfallsinnon-oilrevenues,deterioration

infinancesofstateandlocalgovernments,increaseddisruptionsin

private-sectoractivityduetoconstraintsinaccesstoforeignexchange,

andaresurgenceofsecurityconcerns.”

Q2 2016 Q3 2016Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016


Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodology

GhaNa

kENya

NIGERIa

CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe rISeS IN GhANA ANd KeNyA IN Q3

99 104 104 109104

117108

120103

127 120 122 113127

114


marKeT inTerneT PeneTraTion

Australia 93%

China 52%

HongKong 80%

India 37%

Indonesia 34%

Japan 91%

Malaysia 68%

NewZealand 94%

Philippines 53%

Singapore 81%

SouthKorea 92%

Taiwan 84%

Thailand 60%

Vietnam 52%

marKeT moBile PeneTraTion*

Ghana 130%

Kenya 81%

Nigeria 81%

CounTries in The sTudy ASIA-pACIFIC


Egypt 37%

Morocco 61%

Pakistan 18%

SaudiArabia 65%

SouthAfrica 49%

UnitedArabEmirates

92%

AFrICA/MIddle eASt

Source:MiniwattsMarketing,Internet World Stats,Jun.30,2016(EuropeisupdatedthroughNov.30,2015),www.internetworldstats.com


Canada 93%

UnitedStates 87%

North AMerICA

Sub-SAhArAN AFrICA

europe


Austria 83%

Belarus 59%

Belgium 85%

Bulgaria 57%

Croatia 75%

CzechRepublic 80%

Denmark 96%

Estonia 84%

Finland 94%

France 84%

Germany 88%

Greece 63%

Hungary 76%

Ireland 83%

Israel 73%

Italy 62%

Kazakhstan 54%

Latvia 82%

Lithuania 82%

Netherlands 96%

Norway 96%

Poland 68%

Portugal 68%

Romania 56%

Russia 71%

Serbia 66%

Slovakia 83%

Slovenia 73%

Spain 77%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 87%

Turkey 60%

UnitedKingdom 92%

Ukraine 43%


lAtIN AMerICA

Argentina 79%

Brazil 68%

Chile 80%

Colombia 59%

Mexico 56%

Peru 59%

Venezuela 62% *Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIA World Factbook,July2015


aBouT The nielsen gloBal survey TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentionswasconductedAug.10–Sept.2,2016,andpolledmorethan30,000onlineconsumersin63countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.Thesampleincludesinternetuserswhoagreedtoparticipateinthissurveyandhasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountry.Itisweightedtoberepresentativeofinternetconsumersbycountry.Becausethesampleisbasedonthosewhoagreedtoparticipate,noestimatesoftheoreticalsamplingerrorcanbecalculated.However,aprobabilitysampleofequivalentsizewouldhaveamarginoferrorof±0.6%atthegloballevel.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixed-methodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.TheSub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparatemobilesurveymethodologyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.

aBouT nielsenNielsenHoldingsplc(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagementcompanythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhatconsumerswatchandbuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaandadvertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesforalldevicesonwhichcontent—video,audioandtext—isconsumed.TheBuysegmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailerstheindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.ByintegratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdatasources,Nielsenalsoprovidesitsclientswithanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500company,hasoperationsinover100countries,coveringmorethan90%oftheworld’spopulation.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2016TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.NielsenandtheNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACNTrademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.16/10491

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