India and The Midwest

An Economic Partnership SeminarFeb 18th, 2015

Consulate General of India

Chicago

Indian Economy

• According to IMF, India’s GDP was nominally worth US$ 2.047 Trillion (2014) – 11th Largest by Market Exchange Rates

• GDP on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is US$ 7.277 Trillion (2014) – 3rd Largest in the World.

• GDP in PPP Projected to grow 8,550.04 T (2016) 11,044.01 T (2019)

• India’s economy grew at an average of 8.5% per annum during the period 2004-05 to 2010-11. Even in the crisis year, 2008-09, India recorded a GR of 6.7% and followed up with 8.6% in 2009-10 and 9.3% in 2010-11. Two decades of robust economic growth gave rise to the so-called “Indian Economic Miracle”.

• India's Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MOSPI) projected economic GR at 7.5% YoY (real growth) for Oct-Dec 2014 quarter. Advance estimates for FY15 (Apr-Mar) has been reckoned at 7.4%.

Indian Economy

Indian Economy

• Inflation for Jan 2015 is stable at 5%. Core inflation is down to 3.9%. Inflation expected to remain at low levels, facilitated by lower international crude oil prices.

• RBI has reduced interest rates in January 2015 from 8% to 7.75%.

• India’s forex reserves reached an all-time high of USD 330 billion (Feb’15), $11 billion reserves added in only four weeks. India currently has the 10th highest forex reserves in the world.

• India's external debt coverage ratio fell to 70% of total external debt in 2014 from over 130% in 2008. External Debt is pegged at US$ 450 billion.

• Rupee is firm & strengthened ~3% against the US dollar in January 2015

• Stock market has boomed. Foreign investors remain keen buyers of Indian assets.

• Foreign institutional investors poured in USD 3.4 bn into the equity and debt markets during Jan’15.

Indian Economy

• Total value of India’s listed companies expected to cross US$ 1.5 trillion as India enters top 10 club of countries by Market Capitalization. Over 98,000 new domestic & 216 foreign companies registered in India during FY 2013-14.

• According to the Hurun Global Rich List 2015, India has the third largest number of billionaires (97), behind China (430) and US (537). India added 27 new billionaires this year. Combined wealth adds up to $266 billion.

• According to Boston Consulting Group (BCG), India is poised to become world’s 7th biggest nation in terms of private wealth, with 150% increase in total from US$ 2 trillion (2013) to US$ 5 trillion (2018).

• India is ranked among the top four countries showing absolute gains in wealth (along with USA, China & UK).

India – New Initiatives

India – New Initiatives

• Series of Economic Reforms.

• Expanding Infrastructure, promoting manufacturing, Skills Development & Job creation.

• Ease of Doing Business in India

• “Red Carpet instead of Red Tape”

• Visa on Arrival (VOA) scheme to facilitate business travelers.

• Passing of Insurance Bill, Pension Sector Reforms

• Simplification of the land acquisition laws

• Implementing long-awaited goods & services tax (GST)

• Infrastructure Investment Trusts

• Real Estate Investment Trusts

• Disinvestment of PSUs to generate$ 9.5 billion, including Oil Majors.

• Develop more airports in PPP

• Bullet Trains

• 100% FDI in Railway infrastructure

• FDI in Defense & Insurance sectors raised from 26% to 49%.

• FDI in Construction sector being liberalized.

• Deregulation of Diesel and Petrol

• 25 key sectors identified :

• Automobiles, Auto components, Aviation, Biotechnology, Chemicals, Construction, Defense Manufacturing, Electrical Machinery, Electronics, Food Processing,

• IT, Leather, Media & Entertainment, Mining, Oil & Gas, Pharmaceuticals, Ports, Railways, Renewable Energy, Roads & Highways, Space, Textiles & Garments, Thermal Power, Tourism & Hospitality & Wellness.

• India’s manufacturing sector contributed only 13% to its economic output in 2013.

• ‘Make in India’ launched in September 2014

• Aims at transforming the economy from the services-driven growth model to labor-intensive manufacturing-driven growth.

• Increase productivity.

• Attract foreign companies to set up factories in India & invest in infrastructure.

• According to McKinsey, India’s Manufacturing sector to touch US$ 1 trillion by 2025.

Smart Cities

• GOI has mooted 100 Smart Cities across India. US to develop three smart cities - Ajmer, Allahabad and Visakhapatnam.

• Smart Cities to be equipped with an array of modern state-of-the-art technologies, including 24-hour power supply, Internet of Things (IoT), Machine to Machine (M2M) communication, Mobility, excellent public transport systems, pneumatic waste management system.

• By one estimate, the smart cities market is projected to hit $1.5 trillion by 2020.

• Countries like Japan, Germany, Sweden, Singapore, Israel, UK, US, Hong Kong and the Netherlands, besides MNCs, have shown interest in building smart cities in India.

Delhi-Mumbai (DMIC) Corridor

• GOI developing the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor ( DMIC) as a global manufacturing and investment destination utilizing the 1,483 km-long, high-capacity western Dedicated Railway Freight Corridor (DFC) as the backbone.

• 24 manufacturing cities are envisaged in the perspective plan of the DMIC project.

• These cities will provide international and domestic investors with a diverse set of vast investment opportunities.

• In the first phase, seven cities are being developed, one each in the states of UP, Haryana, Rajasthan, MP and Gujarat and two in Maharashtra.

• The initial phase of the new cities is expected to be completed by 2019.

• Sectors of focus include general manufacturing; IT/ITES; electronics including high-tech industries; automobiles and auto ancillary; agro and food processing; heavy engineering; metals and metallurgical products; pharmaceuticals and biotech; and services sector.

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan -Clean India Mission

• A national campaign launched on 2 October 2014 by GOI, covering 4041 statutory towns, to clean streets, roads and infrastructure of the country.

• This campaign aims to accomplish the vision of a 'Clean India' by 2 October 2019, the 150th birthday of Mahatma Gandhi. It is expected to cost over US$9.7 billion.

Specific objectives:

• Conversion of insanitary toilets to pour flush toilets• 100% collection and scientific processing, disposal, reuse/recycling of municipal solid waste• A behavioral change in people regarding healthy sanitation practices• Generation of awareness among citizens about sanitation and its linkages with public health• Supporting urban local bodies in designing, executing and operating waste disposal systems• Facilitating private-sector participation in capital expenditure and operation and maintenance costs for sanitary facilities

Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana(Prime Minister's People Money Scheme )

• As of 2012, only 35% of Indians older than 15 years had bank accounts in a formal financial institution; against Av. of 41% in other developing countries.

• There are only 229 million basic bank accounts in India. Thousands of villages still lack a bank branch; less than 10% of all commercial bank credit goes to rural areas, where around 70% of the total population lives.

• A scheme for comprehensive financial inclusion was launched by PM Modi on 28 August 2014 to provide universal access to banking facilities. Initial target was opening of 75 million accounts per year.

• Run by Department of Financial Services, Ministry of Finance, on the inauguration day, 15 million bank accounts were opened under this scheme and around US$1.7 billion were deposited.

• Also has an option for opening new bank accounts with zero balance.

Digital India

•Digital India aims to transform India into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy.

• Focus is to make technology central to enabling change.

•Overall Costs would be ~ Rs 5 billion

Impact of Digital India - 2019• Broadband in 250,000

villages, universal phone connectivity.

• Net Zero Imports by 2020

• 400,000 Public Internet Access Points• Wi-fi in 250,000 schools, all universities; Public Wi-fi hotspots for citizens

• Digital Inclusion: 17 million trained for IT, Telecom and Electronics Jobs• Job creation: Direct 17 million and Indirect at least 8.5 million.• e-Governance & eServices• India to be leader in IT use in services – health, education, banking • Digitally empowered citizens – public cloud, internet access

MyGov (mygov.nic.in)

•MyGov aims to help citizens contribute in governance by giving their opinions and views on important socio-economic issues.

•MyGov is a technology-driven medium that will provide citizens an opportunity to contribute towards good governance. 

• It is also an initiative to build a digital knowledge library. People share their views and ides on the topics of national importance. The platform presents an opportunity for the citizens to both ‘Discuss’ and ‘Do’.

• Groups: Girl Child Education, Caring for the Specially-Abled, Clean India, Tribal Development, Challenges in Petroleum Sector, Chemicals & Petrochemicals, Clean Ganga, Consumer Protection and Internal Trade, Digital India, Disaster Resilient India, Energy Conservation, Expenditure Management Commission, Food Security, Green India, Healthy India, Incredible India, Indian Railways, Job Creation, New Education Policy, Skill Development, Sporty India, Watershed Management, Youth for Nation-Building, etc.

India - Investment Opportunities

India Partners

•Consultant Partners - TMF India Pvt. Ltd, Ernst and Young India, Grant Thornton Advisory Private Limited, KPMG India Pvt. Ltd., PricewaterhouseCoopers Pvt. Ltd., SKP, Vaish Associates Advocates

•MoU Partners - Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO), Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency(KOTRA), UK Trade & Investment(UKTI), Ubifrance, Invest in France, Board of Investment Mauritius, Select USA, Czech Invest

• Joint Venture Opportunities - Invest India, as a part of its investment facilitation service to foreign investors, also assists them in finding partners based in India on the basis of requests received. 

Investment Opportunities – Invest India

•Automobile: Huge demand for low-cost electric vehicles that are suited for safe short-distance urban commutes (averaging 50-100 km/trip). It is estimated that total electric vehicles sales would amount to 6-7 Million units by 2020.

•Biotechnology - India constitutes around 8% of the total global generics market, by volume, indicating a huge untapped opportunity in the sector.

•Defence Manufacturing - Up to 49% investment is allowed under the government route. Investment Opportunities include Defence products manufacturing, Supply chain, sourcing opportunity, Defence offsets.

Investment Opportunities – Invest India

•Pharmaceuticals - India is expected to be the third largest global market for active pharmaceutical ingredients by 2016, with a 7.2% increase in market share. The Contract Research and Manufacturing Services industry (CRAMS) – estimated at USD 8 Billion in 2015. India is the largest exporter of formulations with 14% market share and ranks 12th in the world in terms of export value. Double-digit growth is expected over the next five years.

•Renewable Energy - India has vast untapped renewable energy resources — wind energy has installed capacity of 21.1 GW and an estimated potential of 102.8 GW. Small hydro has installed capacity of 3.8 GW and an estimated potential of 19.7 GW. India raises solar investment target to $100 bn by 2022. U.S.-based First Solar and SunEdison Inc have sizeable businesses in India, and together with local firms plans to invest $6 billion.

Invest India

Advantage India

• Word Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects Report predicts India’s GDP growth at 6.8% in 2006 & 7.7% (2017.)

• IMF’s World Economic Outlook predicts that in 2016, India’s GDP growth rate of 6.6% would overtake China’s 6.3%.

• The Indian consumer market will grow 2.5 times by 2025. Over 400 million-strong Middle Class provides huge market.

• India’s capital markets operate with much efficiency and transparency.

Advantage India - Demography

• Dynamic transformation : So-called “population burden” is being converted to a “demographic dividend”.

• > 50% of India’s population is <25 years and >65% is < 35.

• 540 million young Indians under the age of 25. Every third person in an Indian city is a youth.

• In 2020, the average Indian is expected to be only 29 years old, compared with 37 in China and the U.S., 45 in West Europe and 48 in Japan. This is India’s vast untapped potential, which some economists believe could add a significant 2% growth to the GDP.

Foreign Investment in India

Japan’s Investments in India

• Japan to invest $35 billion in India in a wide spectrum of projects, including infrastructure, clean energy & skill development.

• Japan is the fourth biggest foreign investor in India, contributing about 8% to the total FDI inflows. About 60% of Japanese presence in the country is in the manufacturing sector.

• Japan telecom giant SoftBank to invest $10bn in India.

•Major investor in DMIC.

• Japan committed a loan of $2 bn for Delhi Metro.

China’s Investments in India

•China to invest $20 billion in India in next 5 years ($4 bn annually).

•During President Xi’s visit, China and India signed 12 agreements covering industrial parks, railway, credit and leasing, with cumulative investments of $13 billion.

•Two Chinese industrial parks to be set up in India. China’s Beiqi Foton Motor Corp Ltd and Maharashtra Industrial Development Corp have signed an MoU for setting up of Chinese industrial park in Pune with $5-billion investment in three phases by 2030.

•Chinese companies such as Huawei, Alibaba, Xiaomi are increasing their investments in India.

US Investments in India

•U.S. Leads Top 15 Countries Investing In India.

•President Obama announced more than $4 billion in trade and investments with India.

•The US Export-Import Bank to commit up to $1 billion in financing to support "Made-in-America" exports to India.

•OPIC will support lending to small and medium businesses across India that will result in more than $1 billion in loans in underserved rural and urban markets.

•The U.S. Trade and Development Agency will aim to leverage nearly $2 billion in investments in renewable energy in India.  

States

Engagement with States

• PM and EAM have stressed the need for partnering with the States and connecting them with the world better.

• A new ‘States Division’ created in Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

• Objective is furthering a robust engagement with States and fostering closer coordination, facilitation and better familiarization of states.

• Due to imperatives of geography, economy and security, interaction, involvement and influence of States in external affairs has increased, and will only grow with time.

• Trans-national security matters also have implications for states.

Key States with Potential

• Gujarat

• Tamil Nadu

• Karnataka

• Madhya Pradesh

• Maharashtra

• Andhra Pradesh

• Telangana

• Haryana

Investment Opportunities – Gujarat

• Gujarat is a thriving industrial state and hotbed for investments. Gujarat accounts for 15.14% (USD 114.52 bn) of the total investments in India; highest amongst all States in India.

• Gujarat is leader in various industrial sectors, Chemicals, Petrochemicals, Drugs & Pharmaceuticals, Dairy, Cement &Ceramics, Textiles, Engineering and Gems & Jewellery.

• The influence area of DMIC covers 62% of total area of Gujarat (18 out of 26 districts are within the influence area) and Investment potential for Gujarat is about US$ 30bn (1/3rd of total investment potential in DMIC).

•MP has a land bank of approximately 25000 hectares. 231 notified industrial areas spread over 15000 hectares with all facilities.

• Consistently high investment in industrial Infrastructure to the tune of INR 872 million.

• Potential IT hub in India with software exports of INR 2.3 billion (US$45 million) in 2012-13

• Prominent pharmaceutical hub in India with pharma exports of $US 99 million in 2012-13 and a total investment of $US 352 million.

• India’s largest Single  Destination Solar Power Project (130 MW) located in Neemuch district . Horticulture is emerging as an important sector.

Investment Opportunities – Madhya Pradesh

• APInvest is the single point of contact that facilitates investments in Andhra Pradesh.

• SEZ’s :- “Special Economic Zones” – Tax-Free industrial areas

• Single window Clearances:

• Foreign Manufacturing Companies - ALSTOM, Apache, Kobelco, AMD, Celetronix, WEP, Celestica, EISAI, Castall, Eicher, Denison, Pharmazell , Aptuit Laurus, SNF.

• Key Industries - Automotive, Engineering, Apparel & Fashion, Electronics H/W, Pharma, Food Processing, Renewable Energy, IT/ITES, Logistics & Warehousing & other eco-friendly industries.

• Construction of New Capital at Vijaywada – Smart Cities

Investment Opportunities – Andhra Pradesh

• Opportunities in Infrastructure, Power, Renewable Energy, Water cleaning and Treatment, Real Estate, IT and Biotechnology.

• Hyderabad is the hub of IT and BT. Google, Microsoft, ISB

• The State’s focus is on developing high competence in twelve core sectors: Life Sciences – bulk drugs, vaccines, neutraceuticals and biological; IT Hardware and Semi-Conductors; Precision Engineering – Aviation, Aerospace, and Defence; Food Processing and Nutrition Products; Automobiles and Heavy engineering; Plastics, Polymers and Chemicals; Textiles and Apparel; Leather; Waste Management and Green Technologies; Renewable Energy and Solar power; Gems and Jewellery Inland Port; Logistics Hub/Container Depot And Mineral based industries.

Investment Opportunities – Telangana

• Sole producer of felsite and the leading producer of iron ore, chromite, and dunite.

• About 53% of the urban population of the state lives in eight urban cities namely, Bangalore, Hubli- Dharwad, Mysore, Gulbarga, Belgaum, Mangalore, Davangere and Bellary.

• Housing: Integrated Townships, Low-Cost Housing. Environment: Planning and Upgradation of green areas, Water Bodies, Conservation of Environment, Sewerage Treatment Plants.

• Investment in infrastructure is set to increase from the current 8.37% to 10% in the 12th 5 Year Plan (2012-2017). This potentially means a US$ 1 trillion opportunities for global investors over the next 5 years.

•  Karnataka is positioning as major growth centre for chemical industry with presence of 500 companies with leading players like MRPL, BASF, Mangalore chemicals and fertilizers, United Phosphorus. Attracting large R&D Centres for Chemicals/Petrochemicals including planned centre of SABIC.

• The SEZ offers single point clearances, 100% FDI approvals for most projects and several duty and tax incentives/exemptions for all units operating out of SEZ

Investment Opportunities – Karnataka

INDIA-USA

• India is United State’s 10th largest supplier of goods imports and 18th largest goods exports market.

• US is the third largest source of FDI into India. The cumulative US FDI in India is estimated at US% 50 billion. The Indian FDI in USA is put at US$ 25 billion.

• A recent study of 68 Indian Cos. in the US revealed that their collective investments in the US since 2008 exceed US$ 17 billion. 1/3 rd actively engaged in research spending $ 350 million .

• Indian aircraft orders alone support 40,000 jobs in the defense industry of the US.

• Potential to expand current level of bilateral trade from US$ 100 billion to US$ 500 billion in 5-7 years of time.

India-US Trade 2005-2014

Calendar Year India’s Exports to USA ($m)

India’s Imports from US($m)

Total Trade ($m)

2005 18,807.50 7,958.00 26,765.50

2006 21,830.80 10,056.20 31,887.00

2008 22,196.80 17,595.70 39,792.50

2009 21,176.20 16,462.40 37,638.60

2010 29,531.20 19,222.70 48.753.90

2011 36,152.80 21,501.30 57,654.10

2012 40,518.30 22,335.60 62,853.90

2013 41,829.00 21,875.30 63,704.30

2014 45,228.20 21,627.60 66.855.80

Country – India - Last updated December 2014 (12/17/2014) - Measures: Total Value ($US)

Exports Imports

Time

2014 through October 2013 2014 through October 2013State

All States

17,439,923,477 21,842,276,090 38,416,445,616 41,845,281,062

Illinois541,951,145 696,004,525 1,143,256,632 1,192,904,591

Indiana212,712,726 222,808,167 371,045,748 393,013,268

Iowa62,988,658 85,833,276 124,908,142 133,977,777

Michigan239,234,580 261,582,514 909,867,310 1,131,525,721

Minnesota270,699,810 189,248,594 164,116,556 195,783,960

Missouri115,614,215 157,339,266 365,462,877 351,178,067

North Dakota30,872,669 29,354,545 48,889,054 53,604,782

South Dakota1,218,927 1,309,733 4,987,225 4,808,862

Wisconsin168,985,085 289,452,313 571,523,258 639,008,607

Total1,644,277,815 1,932,932,933 3,704,056,802 4,095,805,635

President Obama’s Historic Visit

• Leadership committed to deepening of bilateral ties.

• PM Narendra Modi’s landmark visit to the US heralds new era in relationship.

• President Barack Obama became the first US President to be the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations.

• First US President to visit India twice while in office.

• First time a US president sat at an open venue for over two hours.

• Visible chemistry between PM Modi and President Obama.

• Obama: “Time has come for US to be India’s best partner on a range of issues from education, environment, infrastructure to counter-terrorism.

• PM Modi: “U.S.-India partnership would be instrumental in shaping the character of this century.”.

• US expressed support for India’s claim for a permanent seat in the UNSC.

• Secure Hotlines between Indian PM and US President and between the NSAs.

• Negotiations on Bilateral Investment Treaty to be expedited.

President Obama’s Historic Visit

• Strategic Dialogue elevated to ‘Strategic & Commercial Dialogue’ reflecting joint commitment to strengthening of commercial ties & promoting regional economic growth & stability.

• U.S. can offer new technology partnerships in the realms of energy, environment, defense, health care, education, etc to supercharge India’s development trajectory.

• U.S. & India negotiating long-term energy supply arrangements that could boost India’s energy security .

• Proposed LNG imports from US ~ 5.8 MTPA/US$2.5 billion from Sep 2017 from the terminal of Sabine Pass on the Louisiana-Texas border.

• Strengthening of Bilateral defense ties - joint manufacture of some equipment.

• US surpassed Russia as India’s biggest arms supplier. US$ 5 billion worth of weapons procured from US (total $14b)

• India is now on par with NATO on the sophistication of defense technology offered to India.

• India conducts maximum defense exercises with USA.

Thanks

Consulate General of India

Chicago