Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sam Goff

Friday, May 4

Agenda

I. The role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

II. Challenges and opportunities for growth

III. Success stories

IV. International community’s role in agricultural development

V. Agricultural development in the classroom

I. The role of agriculture in Africa The primary source of livelihood for 65% of

Africans 70-80% of all Africans- and 90% of the poor-

work primarily in agriculture 30-40% of Africa’s GDP; 60% of Africa’s

export income Over last 40 years, Africa’s share of world

agricultural exports has fallen from 8 to 2%

The importance of agriculture

Farm production largely determines the prices of basic foodstuffs

The poor spend 60-70% of income on food

75% of Africa’s underweight children live on small farms

Food security Food security in Africa has worsened since

1970 The percentage of malnourished has remained

in the range of 33-35% since 1970 But due to population growth, the absolute

number has increased 1970: 88 million; 2001: over 200 million food

insecure persons

Food security in comparison to other regions

The centrality of agriculture for economic growth in Africa Agricultural development must be centered

on the small farmer Improving the agricultural sector is key to

solving the problems of hunger and poverty

II. Challenges and Opportunities for Growth Limited access to developed country markets Poverty Poor infrastructure Limited irrigation HIV/AIDS Soil infertility Low agricultural research investment Lack of sound governance Difficulties with market liberalization

Limited access to developed country markets US, Canada, Europe, and Japan: domestic

subsidies, protective tariffs, and other trade barriers harm farmers in Africa and other poor developing countries

In developed economies, consumers favor the artificially cheaper products produced by developed countries

In developing countries, subsidized imported products also displace the locally produced products from developing countries

Limited access to developed country markets US Farm Bill subsidies equal $15-20 b per year,

more than the value of Africa’s total annual agricultural exports

Without rich country subsidies and tariffs, the current $11 billion food-related exports annually from SSA could grow to $22 billion

Reform of developed-country agricultural protectionism may increase market opportunities for African smallholders

The Doha Round of trade liberalization is currently stalled

Regional trade liberalization

Greater intra- and inter-regional trade liberalization is needed

By reducing trade barriers in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, African countries can increase intra-regional agricultural trade by more than 50%

Poverty and infrastructure

80% of all Africans live on a daily income of less than $2; nearly half live on $1 or less a day

Infrastructure is one of the key inputs to agricultural development in Africa

Inadequate physical infrastructure increases costs by 15-25%

Much of poor trade performance is accounted for by poor physical infrastructure

Limited irrigation

Only 1.15% of Africa’s 1.1 billion ha of agricultural area was irrigated in 2000

96% of cereal area relies on rainfall Average irrigation cost in SSA is $46,000/ac; Average irrigation cost in US is $50/ac. High due to limited physical infrastructure

HIV/AIDS in SSA SSA: 2/3 of world’s infection but only 1/10 of

the world’s population; 1/13 adults carry the virus

Great variation across regions Several West African nations have prevalence rates

<1% In Southern Africa the virus has taken hold

More than 1/5 of adult pop. in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe

In 2004, 1/3 of global deaths from AIDS took place in Southern Africa

Life expectancy in SSA in 1992: 57 yrs.; in 2003, 40 yrs.

HIV/AIDS: Impacts on livelihoods HIV/AIDS attacks primarily young adults;

society’s most productive members Households less able to produce or buy food Coping strategies: borrowing and sales of

assets Family members stop work to care for those

who are ill; children drop out of school Intergenerational impacts

HIV/AIDS and gender

Women are increasingly vulnerable Globally, girls and women account for ½ In SSA, ¾ of those living with HIV are females

between ages of 15 and 24 Women in SSA provide 70-80% of household food

production Food production can be reduced by 60% in HIV-

infected households when women’s time and energy are diverted to care for family members infected by HIV

Interventions for HIV/AIDS mitigation: Investments in Women 9/10 HIV+ people do not know they are infected and

lack comprehensive knowledge of HIV transmission Education of women linked to lowering fertility rates,

raising productivity, and improving environmental management

IFPRI study: Farms run by women have lower yields than those run by men; when women receive same levels of education, experience, and farm inputs as men, productivity is comparable

When mothers’ education levels raised to at least the completion of primary school, household poverty was reduced by 34%

Soil Infertility

SSA soil quality is classified as degraded on 72% of arable land and 31% of pastureland

Causes Nutrient mining, Declining use and length of fallow periods, Expansion of agricultural production on marginal

lands Limited adoption of

Inorganic or organic fertilizer, Soil and water conservation measures

Approaches to mitigate soil infertility

Organic farming High external input

sustainable agriculture Low external input

sustainable agriculture Integrated soil fertility

management

A pragmatic approach is needed

Are fertilizer subsidies the answer? May be appropriate to subsidize fertilizers in

the short run in some countries BUT must be supplemented by government

investments in infrastructure, institutions, and policies that permanently reduce farm level prices

Low agricultural research investment From 1976-1996, public agricultural investment was

1/3 the rate of other developing countries as a whole Private sector accounted for only 2% of total

agricultural research spending (US: 50%) Agricultural biotechnology (GMOs) holds high

potential In 2003, NEPAD adopted the Comprehensive Africa

Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) At least 10% of national budgets toward agricultural

development

III. Success Stories: Southern Africa

South African supermarket chains are beginning to buy produce from African countries rather than importing it from overseas

South Africa: smallholders adopting Bt cotton Zambia: from ‘95-’02, cotton production has increased

5x Zambia and Malawi, smallholders have doubled cash

returns from improved varieties of cassava Mozambique: in last decade, agricultural growth has

remained steady at 9-13% annually

Success Stories: West Africa

Cross-breeding high-yielding Asian rice varieties with drought- and disease-resistant African varieties resulted in New Rice for Africa (NERICA)

West Africa could save $88 million in rice imports

Increased intraregional trade and diversification through ECOWAS 75 nontraditional agricultural products exported

Success Stories: East Africa

Ugandan gov’t initiatives under the Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture: distributing tea plantlets to households, cotton seeds to ginners, stocking lakes with fish

COMESA: Free-trade area Kenya: In 2003, smallholders produced about

$46 m of the $147 income from horticultural exports

Kenya: Smallholders produce 80% of country’s milk

IV. International community’s role

Although overall international assistance to Africa has increased, assistance to African agriculture has fallen

Sustaining International Support for Agricultural Development Africa’s agricultural sector needs greater

access to international markets US’ AGOA: less than 10% are agricultural

products

V. Agricultural development in the classroom The Green Revolution http://www.fao.org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/FSMa

p/flash_map.htm Increase students’ awareness of global poverty Miniature Earth: If the world’s population were

reduced to 100 people, what would it look like? (http://www.miniature-earth.com/)

You prepare the next generation of scientists, educators, economists, and others who have the potential to change our world

References

Resnick, D. (2004). Smallholder African Agriculture: Progress and Problems in Confronting Hunger and Poverty. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.***

Rosegrant, M. (2005). Looking Ahead: Long-term Prospects for Africa’s Agricultural Development and Food Security. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.***

Haggblade, S. (2004). Building on Successes in African Agriculture. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.***

Gollehan, N. Irrigation Resources and Water Costs. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/arei/eib16/eib16_2-1.pdf

***extensive verbatim reproduction