Consolidated Forecasts Incident Cumulative Deaths 01-18-2021 · 18/1/2021 · Nov−15 Dec−01...
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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● National Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID IHME ISU JHU-IDD Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MIT-ISOLAT MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong ESG RPI-UW SignatureScience CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM SUNY USC Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 100k 200k 300k 400k 500k Total Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC MIT-ORC Columbia LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID IHME ISU JHU-IDD Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong ESG RPI-UW SignatureScience CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 100k 200k 300k 400k 500k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2021-01-18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Alabama Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 200 400 600 800 1k New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID CMU Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID IHME ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MIT-ISOLAT MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSB UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 200 400 600 800 1k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 2k 4k 6k 8k 10k Total Deaths Reported UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC MIT-ORC Columbia LSHTM Google-HSPH GT-DeepCOVID ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSB UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC Walmart Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 Feb-15 0 2k 4k 6k 8k 10k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2021-01-18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
Transcript of Consolidated Forecasts Incident Cumulative Deaths 01-18-2021 · 18/1/2021 · Nov−15 Dec−01...
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National
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
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kly
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBS
Oliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWSignatureScienceCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMSUNYUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBS
Oliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWSignatureScienceCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alabama
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBS
Oliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alaska
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sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
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American Samoa
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Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arizona
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sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arkansas
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400
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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California
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Colorado
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Tota
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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Connecticut
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Delaware
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20
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60
80
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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500
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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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District of Columbia
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORC
ColumbiaLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
KarlenLANLMIT−LCPOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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1.2k
Tota
l Dea
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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlen
LANLMIT−LCPOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Florida
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●● ● ●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBS
Oliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
● ● ●●
●
●
Georgia
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
1.4kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
● ● ●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
1.4k
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Guam
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2
4
6
8
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
PSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2
4
6
8
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ● ●● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
PSIUCLAUMass−MB
USC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ● ●● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
Hawaii
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBS
Oliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Idaho
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Illinois*
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Indiana
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Iowa
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Kansas
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
Kentucky
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Louisiana
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
Maine
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
Maryland
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
Massachusetts
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●● ●
● ●
●
●
Michigan
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●● ●
● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Minnesota
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Mississippi
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Missouri
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
Montana
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nebraska
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nevada
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
New Hampshire
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
New Jersey
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New Mexico
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
New York**
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
North Carolina
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
North Dakota
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBS
Oliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Ohio
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
● ●
Oklahoma
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
Oregon
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Pennsylvania
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Puerto Rico
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMU
Columbia−UNCCovid19SimLSHTMJHU−CSSE
JHU−IDDKarlenLANLPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19Sim
LSHTMJHU−CSSEKarlenLANL
PSIESGUCLAUMass−MB
USC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Rhode Island
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
South Carolina**
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
●
●
●
South Dakota*
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Tennessee*
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Texas
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Utah
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
Vermont
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
●
Virgin Islands
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
LANLPSIESG
UMass−MB
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDLANLPSIUMass−MB
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
10
20
30
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
Virginia**
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Washington
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●● ●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●● ●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
West Virginia
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Wisconsin
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−ISOLATMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Wyoming
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
20
40
60
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01 Feb−15
0
200
400
600
800
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−18 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
![Washington State Register, Issue 15-01 WSR 15-01-022 WSR ...lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/law/wsr/2015/01/15-01PROP.pdfWSR 15-01-022 Washington State Register, Issue 15-01 Proposed [ 2 ]](https://static.fdocuments.in/doc/165x107/5f55db3e74e808733b010351/washington-state-register-issue-15-01-wsr-15-01-022-wsr-wsr-15-01-022-washington.jpg)
