CONSENSUS FORECASTSimagenesbibliotecacentral.minhap.gob.es/pdfpublicaciones/REVISTA… · Consensus...

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Contents

PageSignificant Changes in theConsensus ......................................... 2

Special Survey:Quarterly Forecasts(continued on page 28)............................3

Individual Country Forecasts

United States ...................................... 4Japan .................................................. 6Germany ............................................. 8France .............................................. 10United Kingdom ................................ 12Italy .................................................. 14Canada ............................................. 16

Euro zone .......................................18

Netherlands ....................................... 20Norway.............................................. 21Spain ................................................ 22Sweden ............................................. 23Switzerland ....................................... 24

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Egypt,Finland, Greece ................................ 25Ireland, Israel, Nigeria, Portugal,Saudi Arabia, South Africa ................ 26

Foreign Exchange and Oil PriceForecasts ......................................... 27

Special Survey:Quarterly Forecasts(continued from page 3). ........... 28-29

World Economic Activity ................ 32

Survey DateDecember 12, 2011

Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 0957-0950) is published by Consensus Economics Inc.,53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United KingdomTel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 Web: www.consensuseconomics.com

Editor: Claire V. M. HubbardAssistant Editor: Matthew RecordPublisher: Philip M. Hubbard

Every month, Consensus Economics surveys over 250 prominent financial and economicforecasters for their estimates of a range of variables including future growth, inflation, interestrates and exchange rates. More than 20 countries are covered and the reference data, togetherwith analysis and polls on topical issues, is rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.

Survey Highlights

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic, photocopying, digitalization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or take any responsibility for theinformation set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.

Our next issue of Consensus Forecasts will be available atthe end of the day on January 12, 2012 and will include

Forecast Probabilities.

2012 GDP forecasts have fallen across the board – and sharply,too – on the back of the Euro zone debt crisis. Moreover, oursister publication Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts showsthe pattern of falling expectations spreading far beyond WesternEurope as global financial markets factor in the threat ofcontagion. The 2012 Italian GDP forecast plummeted to -1.0%while GDP is also expected to contract in Spain and theNetherlands. The compromise reached by European leaders atthe most recent summit underwhelmed investors and forcedItalian and Spanish bond yields above the 7% danger zone.Outside the single-currency area, Switzerland has seen its2012 GDP projection drop (by 0.5 percentage points) as has theone for the UK. By contrast, US and Canadian outlooks remainpositive though the authorities are vigilant to downside risks.

Our regular survey of Quarterly Forecasts (pages 3, 28 and 29)shows our panels' forecasts for GDP, Consumption, IndustrialProduction, Inflation and 3-month Interest Rates through tothe second quarter of 2013. Moreover, our Significant Changessection (page 2) contrasts the latest quarterly GDP growthexpectations with those from December 2010 and June 2011.

Quarterly GDP Growth in the US, Japan, UK and the Eurozone (see pages 2, 3, 28 and 29)

(% change year-on-year)

% change,y-o-y

<Consensus Forecasts>

Japan

Euro zone

UnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

CONSENSUS FORECASTS®

E-mail Edition: - © Consensus Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Under our agreement this publica-tion may not be reproduced (complete or partial), redistributed, stored in a publicretrieval system or broadcast to persons other than the email subscriber without theprior written permission of Consensus Economics Inc.

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 20112

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS DECEMBER 2011

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In comparing Changes in Quarterly Forecast Trends forGDP Growth among the G-5 economies and the Euro zone,we have taken our panel’s December 2011 quarterly GDPgrowth projections (available in full on pages 3, 28 and 29)and contrasted them with those published in December 2010and June 2011 (see charts, below). As these illustrate, latestquarterly GDP estimates have deteriorated sharply com-pared with six and 12 months’ previously. In Germany,France, the UK and Euro zone, this is particularly notice-able: our panellists are even predicting that y-o-y GDP will fallinto negative territory in France and the Euro area as a wholein Q1 of next year. What is also significant about thedowngrades is that the recovery path to 2013 is expected to

-2 . 0-1 . 5-1 . 0-0 . 50 . 00 . 51 . 01 . 52 . 02 . 53 . 03 . 54 . 04 . 55 . 05 . 5

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US GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts inDecember 2010, June 2011 and December 2011

(% change y-o-y)

% change,y-o-y


Japan GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts inDecember 2010, June 2011 and December 2011

(% change y-o-y)

% change,y-o-y

December2010 December

2011

June 2011 December2010

December 2011

June2011


Our “Notes and Abbreviations” section has been temporarily moved to page 30.

Germany GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts inDecember 2010, June 2011 and December 2011

(% change y-o-y)

% change,y-o-y France GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts in

December 2010, June 2011 and December 2011(% change y-o-y)

% change,y-o-y

UK GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts inDecember 2010, June 2011 and December 2011

(% change y-o-y)

% change,y-o-y

Euro zone GDP Growth Quarterly Forecasts inDecember 2010, June 2011 and December 2011

(% change y-o-y)

% change,y-o-y

December2010

December2011

June2011

December2011

December2010

December2011

June 2011

December2010 December 2011





December 2011 GDP Forecasts (y-o-y)

2011 2012 2013Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22.6 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5


2011 2012 2013Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q20.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7


2011 2012 2013Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q21.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0


2011 2012 2013Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q21.6 1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.1


2011 2012 2013Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2-0.8 -0.3 1.6 2.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5

December2010

June 2011

be modest at best – in fact, for all six economies, growthrates posited for Q2 2013 are unlikely to even reach the levelspredicted back in June. The relative resilience of UnitedStates’ and Japanese quarterly GDP estimates looks feeblein comparison with previous surveys. Indeed, Japan’s re-bound in GDP after the collapse of activity in Q2 of this yearcould well be short-lived. Even exposure to the relativelystronger Asia Pacific region may not be enough to offsetdramatic economic and financial retrenchment in Europe.There is little upbeat news to be found in any of these charts.Warnings of a drawn-out downturn “worse than the GreatDepression” could potentially come to fruition, especiallygiven these globalized economies’ exposure to one another.


2011 2012 2013Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q21.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5

June2011

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 3

FEBRUARY 2011 TRENDS IN PRODUCTIVITY AND WAGESDECEMBER 2011 QUARTERLY FORECASTS

United States

Japan

Germany

In addition to their regular forecasts, country panellists were asked to provide forecasts for individual quarters covering theperiod until the second quarter of 2013. Figures in normal type are official, published data with consensus forecasts – basedon the averages of our panels' forecasts – shown in bold italics. Unless stated otherwise, all definitions correspond to thoseused on the individual country pages. As indicated, normal text numbers are percentage changes over the same quarter ofthe previous year; italics denote implied changes over the previous quarter (not annualised). Readers should note that the fourquarterly consensus forecasts covering a year may not equate to the annual consensus forecast shown for that same variableon pages 4-24, since the groups of survey respondents may be different, or because of rounding.

1 End period

Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2Gross Domestic Product* 5.2 3.3 0.0 -1.7 -0.8 -0.3 1.6 2.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5% change, qtr/qtr 0.5 0.0 -1.7 -0.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1Private Consumption* 2.8 1.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0% change, qtr/qtr 0.4 0.4 -1.2 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3Industrial Production* 13.3 6.9 -2.4 -7.0 -2.2 -1.1 1.6 6.5 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.9Consumer Prices* -1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.13 month Yen (TIBOR) rate, % 1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2Gross Domestic Product* 2 4.0 3.8 4.6 2.9 2.6 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5% change, qtr/qtr 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4Private Consumption* 2 1.0 1.8 2.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1% change, qtr/qtr 0.4 0.5 0.5 -0.6 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Industrial Production* 10.2 11.7 12.8 8.2 8.0 4.3 1.6 0.7 -0.2 1.9 2.8 2.8Consumer Prices* 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.73 month Euro Rate, % 1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1

* % change over previous year



1 End period 2 Quarterly data (source: Bundesbank) are working-day adjusted. Annual figures on page 8 (source: FSO) are not adjusted.

Tables continued on page 28 and 29

1 End period

2010 2011

2010 2012

2010 2011 2012

2012

2011

2013

2013

2013

This month’s Quarterly Forecasts for the G-7 and WesternEurope coincide with the release of Q3 GDP data. For theEuro area countries, this was a volatile period and GDPestimates for Q4 and going into 2012 underscore the viewamongst panellists that the region likely entered contractionaryterritory. In the case of the Netherlands and Spain, Q3 GDPin q-o-q terms was already declining or was, at the very least,flat. The Italian Q3 report was not available on our surveydeadline, but new prime minister Mario Monti’s austerity drivemeans that y-o-y and q-o-q GDP will be negative throughout2012. Industrial production was a drag on GDP in Q3 and thisis likely to increase in coming quarters, due to the uncompeti-tive nature of the economy. For Germany and France, Q3outturns represent the calm before the storm, with the debtcrisis now engulfing the core as well as the Euro area

Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2Gross Domestic Product* 3.5 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5% change, qtr/qtr 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7Personal Consumption* 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2% change, qtr/qtr 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6Industrial Production* 6.9 6.2 5.4 3.8 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.9Consumer Prices* 1.2 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.03 month Treasury Bill Rate, % 1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

periphery. Recession next year will exacerbate public deficitsand the contractionary impact of austerity measures. TheUnited Kingdom may just avoid recession in 2012 althoughgrowth is likely to remain relatively stagnant. Inflation, whichwas the highest in the EU in October, is set to fall next yearto the Bank of England target rate by Q4 2012. Meanwhile, theUnited States saw an increase in q-o-q GDP after a lacklustreQ1 and Q2 showing (as did Canada). Sentiment regarding theeconomy has even improved – the consensus posits that theUS will be one of the few G-7 positive performers next yearand going into 2013. Japan, too, should pull itself out ofrecession (triggered by the tsunami/nuclear disaster), al-though part of this surge is likely due to base-year effects andgreater government spending in the affected zones, theimmediate impact of which will fade thereafter.

DECEMBER 2011


American International GroupBank of America - MerrillFirst Trust AdvisorsMorgan StanleyRDQ EconomicsWells Capital MgmtPNC Financial ServicesGoldman SachsMoody's AnalyticsFord Motor CompanyJP MorganSwiss ReStandard & Poor'sThe Conference BoardOxford EconomicsEcon Intelligence UnitGeneral MotorsMacroeconomic AdvisersNat Assn of Home BuildersUniv of Michigan - RSQECredit SuisseBarclays CapitalDuPontFannie MaeGeorgia State UniversityIHS Global InsightInforum - Univ of MarylandWells FargoEaton Corporation

Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean3 Months AgoHighLowStandard Deviation

Comparison ForecastsCBO (Aug. '11)OMB (Aug. '11)IMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

Gross Domestic Product*Personal Consumption*Business Investment*Pre - Tax Corporate Profits*Industrial Production*Consumer Prices*Producer Prices*Employment Costs*Auto & Light Truck Sales (inc. imports), mnHousing Starts, mnUnemployment Rate, %Current Account, US$ bnFederal Budget Balance,

fiscal years, US$ bn3 mth Treasury Bill, % (end yr)10 Year Trsy Bond, % (end yr)

Historical Data

UNITED STATES

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

GrossDomesticProduct

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year Annual Total

Government and Background DataPresident - Mr. Barack Obama (Democrat). Congress - Republicans

have a majority in the House of Representatives (lower house) while the

Democrats have a 2-seat majority in the Senate (upper house). Next

Elections - November 2012 (Presidential and Congressional). Nominal

GDP - US$14,660bn (2010). Population - 317.6mn (mid-year, 2010).

* % change on previous year

PersonalConsum-

ption

BusinessInvest-ment

Pre - TaxCorporate

Profits

IndustrialProduct-

ion

Con-sumerPrices

ProducerPrices

Employ-mentCosts

Auto &LightTruck

Sales (inc.imports,

mn units)

HousingStarts

(mn units)

Economic Forecasters

Percentage Change (year-on-year).

2007 2008 2009 20101.8 -0.3 -3.5 3.02.1 -0.6 -1.9 2.06.6 -0.8 -17.9 4.4

-6.1 -17.4 9.1 32.22.7 -3.7 -11.2 5.32.9 3.8 -0.3 1.63.9 6.4 -2.5 4.23.4 3.0 1.7 1.9

16.1 13.2 10.4 11.61.34 0.90 0.55 0.59

4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6-727 -669 -377 -471

-161 -459 -1426 -12943.3 0.1 0.1 0.2

4.2 2.4 3.8 3.4

2011 2012

Gross DomesticProduct

PersonalConsumption

ConsumerPrices

Quarterly Consensus ForecastsHistorical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of

December 12, 20112011 2012 2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5

2.8 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2

2.2 3.3 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0

1.8 2.9 2.2 2.1 8.7 15.4 8.4 9.5 3.7 3.5 3.0 1.4 4.8 -0.9 na na 12.8 14.1 0.60 0.801.8 1.9 2.3 1.8 8.6 5.6 na na 4.0 2.2 3.2 1.6 na na na na 12.8 13.1 0.63 0.551.8 3.1 2.2 2.3 9.2 11.7 na na 4.1 3.7 3.2 3.5 6.1 3.5 na na 12.8 14.4 0.60 0.671.8 2.2 2.3 1.9 8.7 6.9 8.0 2.6 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.1 6.0 1.4 na na 12.7 13.8 0.60 0.681.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 8.8 7.6 8.4 7.8 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.6 na na na na 12.8 13.0 0.60 0.801.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 9.1 9.1 8.3 5.6 4.1 3.4 3.3 2.9 6.2 2.8 2.1 2.2 12.7 13.2 0.60 0.631.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 8.1 7.5 na na 3.2 3.9 3.2 2.3 6.0 2.4 na na 12.6 13.2 0.60 0.691.8 1.8 2.3 1.5 8.9 6.0 8.5 7.6 4.0 2.1 3.2 2.2 6.2 3.3 2.1 1.6 12.6 13.4 0.59 0.681.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 8.8 6.6 8.8 6.0 4.1 4.1 3.2 2.1 6.0 3.1 2.1 2.1 12.7 14.2 0.60 0.871.8 2.0 2.3 1.7 8.8 6.7 na na 4.0 2.6 3.2 2.1 6.0 1.7 na na na na 0.60 0.681.8 1.8 2.3 1.6 9.1 8.7 8.4 2.8 4.4 2.1 3.1 1.5 6.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 12.7 13.2 0.59 0.641.8 1.3 2.2 2.0 8.7 2.4 8.2 0.9 4.0 -0.1 3.1 1.4 5.9 -0.3 na na 12.8 14.1 0.60 0.691.8 1.8 2.3 2.2 8.7 5.4 8.9 0.9 4.0 2.6 3.1 1.5 6.0 0.5 2.2 2.0 12.7 13.3 0.60 0.671.8 1.7 2.3 2.1 8.8 5.5 8.1 4.3 4.3 2.8 3.2 2.2 5.9 0.6 2.2 2.1 12.8 14.0 0.60 0.701.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 9.0 8.8 7.7 5.8 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.3 6.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 12.8 14.4 0.60 0.721.7 1.3 2.2 1.3 na na na na 4.0 2.8 3.2 2.1 6.0 1.8 na na na na na na1.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 8.8 6.9 4.2 8.4 4.0 2.7 3.2 1.9 6.0 1.4 2.2 2.3 na na 0.60 0.731.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 8.8 6.9 8.3 4.7 4.0 2.7 3.2 1.9 6.0 1.4 na na 12.8 14.4 0.60 0.691.7 2.1 2.2 1.7 7.8 5.0 8.3 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.2 2.1 6.1 1.1 2.1 2.0 12.6 13.5 0.60 0.681.7 2.3 2.3 2.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 4.4 4.0 2.3 3.2 2.2 6.0 3.0 na na 12.7 13.6 0.60 0.731.7 2.1 2.3 2.1 8.7 7.4 8.5 7.1 4.0 3.1 3.2 1.7 na na na na na na 0.57 0.631.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 9.0 11.4 8.2 6.2 4.0 4.1 3.2 2.3 6.1 3.0 na na 12.7 13.7 0.60 0.701.7 1.9 2.2 1.9 8.9 5.8 9.0 5.0 4.0 2.4 3.2 2.0 6.1 1.5 2.0 2.0 12.7 13.6 0.59 0.681.7 1.7 2.3 1.6 9.0 7.3 8.3 3.2 4.0 2.6 3.2 1.9 6.0 1.3 na na 12.8 14.3 0.60 0.651.7 1.7 2.3 1.9 9.2 6.1 9.1 -2.1 3.8 1.1 3.2 1.8 6.2 0.9 2.3 2.5 12.7 12.7 0.59 0.641.7 1.8 2.3 2.2 8.7 5.1 8.8 0.6 3.9 2.6 3.1 1.5 6.0 0.5 2.2 2.0 12.7 13.3 0.60 0.681.7 2.3 2.3 2.0 8.9 8.9 8.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.3 2.6 6.1 2.4 na na 12.7 13.3 0.60 0.681.7 1.9 2.3 1.8 9.3 9.7 7.9 6.3 4.0 3.1 3.2 2.0 6.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 12.8 13.6 0.59 0.651.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 8.6 5.2 8.8 5.0 3.8 2.1 3.2 2.3 5.8 -0.2 1.9 1.8 12.7 13.6 0.60 0.66

1.7 2.1 2.3 2.0 8.8 7.4 8.2 4.6 4.0 2.8 3.2 2.1 6.0 1.6 2.1 2.1 12.7 13.6 0.60 0.69

1.8 2.1 2.3 1.9 9.0 7.3 8.3 4.6 4.0 2.7 3.2 2.1 6.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 12.6 13.4 0.60 0.681.6 2.1 2.1 2.0 7.7 6.4 6.7 3.9 3.9 2.8 3.1 2.1 6.0 1.6 2.1 2.1 12.5 13.3 0.59 0.701.8 3.1 2.3 2.5 9.3 15.4 9.1 9.5 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.5 6.2 3.5 2.3 2.5 12.8 14.4 0.63 0.871.7 1.3 2.2 1.3 7.8 2.4 4.2 -2.1 3.2 -0.1 3.0 1.4 4.8 -0.9 1.9 1.6 12.6 12.7 0.57 0.550.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.5 0.9 2.7 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.01 0.06

2.4 2.6 2.9 1.5 1.9 2.82.1 3.3 2.8 1.81.5 1.8 1.8 1.0 3.0 1.21.7 2.0 3.2 2.4

DECEMBER 2011

5© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

9.0 8.6 -470 -459 -1299 -1209 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.79.0 8.8 na na -1299 na na na na na9.0 8.3 -448 -452 -1299 -1025 0.1 0.1 2.7 3.59.0 8.9 -451 -386 -1299 -1171 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.09.0 8.8 na na -1299 -1000 0.1 0.1 2.4 4.09.1 8.8 -450 -465 -1299 -1110 0.1 0.2 2.3 3.19.0 8.8 na na -1299 na 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.69.0 8.9 -457 -485 -1299 -1250 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.59.0 8.8 -460 -465 -1299 -1281 0.0 0.0 2.7 4.29.0 8.9 na na -1299 -984 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.89.0 8.8 -480 -535 na -1000 na na na na9.1 10.3 -475 -489 -1299 -1200 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.49.0 9.0 -450 -467 -1299 -1047 0.1 0.0 2.8 2.39.0 8.9 -467 -457 -1299 -1111 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.19.0 8.6 -460 -421 -1299 -988 0.1 0.1 2.2 3.49.0 9.1 na na -1299 -1208 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.28.9 8.8 -445 -370 na -1060 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.99.0 8.9 -445 -364 na -1059 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.49.0 8.9 -452 -432 na -1178 0.1 0.2 2.2 3.09.0 8.7 na na -1299 na 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.59.0 8.8 -498 -501 -1299 -1087 na na 1.5 2.39.0 8.3 -490 -523 -1299 -1100 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.09.0 8.8 na na -1299 -1150 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.09.0 9.0 -448 -405 -1299 -1068 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.49.0 8.7 -456 -441 -1299 -1105 0.1 0.2 2.3 3.09.0 9.0 -449 -469 -1299 -1055 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.59.0 8.7 na na -1299 na 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.59.0 9.0 -473 -635 -1299 -957 0.1 0.2 2.3 2.59.0 8.7 na na -1299 -1215 0.0 0.1 2.3 2.7

9.0 8.8 -461 -461 -1299 -1105 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.7

9.0 9.0 -467 -453 -1299 -11009.1 9.0 -483 -473 -1287 -11269.1 10.3 -445 -364 -1299 -957 0.1 0.2 2.8 4.28.9 8.3 -498 -635 -1299 -1281 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.00.0 0.3 15 62 0 91 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6

8.9 8.7 -1284 -9738.8 8.3 -1316 -9569.1 9.0 -1453 -1228

Rates on Survey Date

-4-3-2-10123456

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Major Import Suppliers(% of Total)

China 19.5Canada 14.2Mexico 11.8Asia (ex. Japan) 26.4Latin America 18.7Africa 4.2

Major Export Markets(% of Total)

Canada 19.4Mexico 12.8China 7.2Latin America 23.5Asia (ex. Japan) 12.4Middle East 3.5

UNITED STATES

Real Growth and Inflation

YearAverage

2011 2012 2011 2012

Annual Total Fiscal Years(Oct-Sep)

Direction of Trade – 2010

%

Unemploy-ment

Rate (%)

CurrentAccount(US$ bn)

FederalBudgetBalance

(US$ bn)1

3 monthTreasury

Bill Rate (%)

10 YearTreasury

BondYield (%)

End EndMar’12 Dec’12

FY FY10-111 11-12

<Forecast>

0.0% 2.0%

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

2011Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

GDP Growth and Inflation ForecastsConsensus Forecasts from Survey of:

%

2012 ConsumerPrice InflationForecasts (%)

2012 Real GDPGrowth

Forecasts (%)

Real GDP (% chg yoy) Consumer Prices (% chg yoy)

(% change over previous year)

2012 GDP Forecasts Stable in Face of Global HeadwindsAt odds with the Euro zone debt crisis and darkening globalgrowth fundamentals, sentiment regarding the US appears tobe staying relatively firm – for now. Part of this resulted fromNovember’s better-than-expected labour market report. Non-farm payrolls rose by 120,000, compared with 100,000 inOctober, boosted by a 146,000 gain in private service-sectorpositions (in anticipation of “Black Friday” and the Christmasshopping rush). But observers were fixed on the unemploy-ment rate falling from 9.0% in the previous month to 8.6%, itslowest level since March 2009. Part of this may have beendue to a lower participation rate on the back of demographicsand discouraged workers dropping out of the labour market.Still, in light of business investment rising by 15.1% (q-o-qannualized) in Q3, up from 10.5% in Q2, this summer’sconcerns over the direction of activity have dissipated some-what. With businesses ramping up spending, the hope is thatthe lacklustre jobs situation may finally be turning a corner.The 2012 jobless rate forecast has slipped from 9% to 8.8%.

The second release of Q3 GDP saw growth downgraded froman initial 2.5% (q-o-q annualized) reading to 2.0%. Fallingstockpiles were behind the drop, but with consumption sur-prising on the high side, inventories are likely being built upagain. The European crisis has many worried about its impacton the world economy and also serves as a reminder that theUS’s own debt woes have not disappeared: the Congressional“super committee” failed to agree on a deficit reductionpackage for 2012 that might have extended payroll tax cutsand unemployment benefits. The deadlock does not inspireconfidence among investors and leaves a relatively con-strained Fed with the task of almost solely supporting activity.

US Interest Rates (in %)

0.07% 0.24% 2.03% 3.06%

0.08% 0.24% 2.04% 3.09%

1.00% 0.40% 3.00% 4.20%

0.98% 0.42% 2.95% 4.25%

Dec. 12, 2011

1 month ago 2

6 months ago 2

12 months ago 2

Fed ------ US Treasury securities1 ------funds 2-year 10-year 30-year

1 Nominal Treasury constant maturities. 2 On survey date.


1FY 10-11 = Actual

DECEMBER 2011


Japan Tech Info Services CorpGoldman SachsEcon Intelligence UnitToyota Motor CorporationCitigroup Global Mkts JapanMizuho SecuritiesHSBCMerrill Lynch - JapanIHS Global InsightBank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJDaiwa Institute of ResearchJP Morgan - JapanMitsubishi Research InstituteUBSMizuho Research InstituteCredit SuisseMitsubishi UFJ ResearchDeutsche SecuritiesJapan Ctr for Econ ResearchITOCHU InstituteNomura SecuritiesNLI Research Institute

Consensus (Mean)


Comparison ForecastsIMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

0.1 2.9 -0.1 0.5 0.1 6.7 -2.4 4.8 -0.2 0.3 2.1 -0.1 0.5 0.8 2.3 2.8 0.86 0.91-0.2 1.9 -0.1 0.7 0.1 2.8 -3.1 4.1 -0.2 -0.1 2.1 0.2 na na na na na na-0.2 2.2 -0.4 1.6 na na -1.9 6.3 0.3 0.8 2.4 0.6 na na 3.5 3.8 na na-0.3 1.9 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 4.2 na na -0.4 -0.2 na na na na 2.5 2.6 0.83 0.83-0.4 1.8 -0.3 0.8 0.2 3.2 -3.2 1.8 -0.3 -0.3 na na na na na na na na-0.4 1.8 0.0 1.2 0.5 4.4 -3.1 1.9 -0.2 0.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 1.0 na na 0.86 0.89-0.6 1.9 -0.4 0.5 na na 2.8 -4.0 -0.5 -0.3 2.0 0.5 -0.5 -0.2 na na na na-0.7 2.4 -0.2 1.2 -0.7 0.8 -3.3 1.9 -0.4 -0.4 na na na na na na na na-0.7 2.9 -0.2 1.6 0.1 8.9 -2.8 9.5 -0.4 -0.8 1.9 -1.2 na na na na 0.83 1.01-0.8 2.5 -0.1 1.3 0.1 7.4 -3.2 6.3 -0.3 -0.6 2.2 0.8 na na na na 0.85 0.89-0.8 1.9 -0.4 1.5 -0.4 1.7 -3.1 5.3 na na 2.3 1.1 na na na na na na-0.8 1.9 -0.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -3.3 3.2 -0.2 -0.4 na na na na na na na na-0.8 1.7 -0.2 0.6 -0.5 1.9 -3.0 3.9 -0.2 -0.2 2.1 0.0 na na na na 0.83 0.86-0.8 2.5 -0.1 1.5 0.3 8.4 -3.1 3.8 -0.3 -0.1 2.0 1.0 0.3 1.1 na na na na-0.8 1.9 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 2.8 -3.2 3.4 -0.3 -0.4 2.2 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 na na 0.84 0.85-0.8 1.4 -0.2 0.7 -0.5 1.1 -4.9 5.6 -0.2 -0.2 2.2 -1.3 0.4 1.2 na na na na-0.8 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -0.4 1.7 -3.4 2.4 -0.3 -0.5 2.0 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 na na 0.84 0.87-0.8 0.7 -0.1 1.0 -0.8 -2.1 -3.1 -1.4 -0.3 -0.3 2.1 -0.9 0.2 0.6 na na 0.83 0.85-0.8 2.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.6 2.6 -3.4 6.0 0.3 0.4 2.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.6 na na 0.82 0.85-0.9 1.7 -0.2 1.1 -0.4 1.6 -3.4 2.1 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 2.4 2.8 0.84 0.85-0.9 1.9 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 3.2 -3.3 3.0 -0.2 -0.3 2.1 -0.6 na na na na na na-0.9 1.7 -0.2 0.6 -0.3 2.1 -3.2 4.9 -0.3 -0.1 2.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 na na 0.83 0.86

-0.6 2.0 -0.2 1.0 -0.2 3.3 -2.9 3.6 -0.2 -0.2 2.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.0 0.84 0.88

-0.4 2.1 -0.4 1.0 0.4 4.4 -2.5 4.1 -0.3 -0.2 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.0 0.85 0.89-0.5 2.4 -0.6 1.0 0.6 5.0 -1.8 6.7 -0.2 -0.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.0 0.84 0.880.1 2.9 0.0 1.6 0.5 8.9 2.8 9.5 0.3 0.8 2.4 1.1 0.5 1.2 3.5 3.8 0.86 1.01

-0.9 0.7 -0.4 0.5 -0.8 -2.1 -4.9 -4.0 -0.5 -0.8 1.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.6 2.3 2.6 0.82 0.830.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.7 1.4 2.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.01 0.05

-0.5 2.3 -0.7 1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 2.0 -0.2 1.3 0.1 4.0 -0.3 -0.6


Gross Domestic Product*Private Consumption*Business Investment*Industrial Production*Consumer Prices*Domestic Corporate Goods Prices*Total Cash Earnings (nominal)*New Car Registrations, mnHousing Starts, mnUnemployment Rate, %Current Account, ¥tnGeneral Govt Budget Balance,

SNA basis, fisc. years, ¥tn3 mth TIBOR, % (end yr)10 Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr)

Historical Data

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

JAPAN

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year



Government and Background Data

Prime Minister - Mr. Yoshihiko Noda of the Democratic Party of Japan(DPJ). Parliament - The DPJ has formed a coalition with the People’sNew Party in the lower House of Representatives, or Shugiin (310 outof 480 seats) but lost its majority in the upper house. Next Elections- 2013. Nominal GDP - ¥479.4tn (2010). Population - 127.0mn (mid-year, 2010). Yen/$ Exchange Rate - 87.69 (average, 2010).

e = consensus estimate based on latest survey


PrivateConsump-

tion

BusinessInvestment

IndustrialProduction

ConsumerPrices

DomesticCorporate

GoodsPrices

Total CashEarnings(nominal)

New CarRegistra-tions (mn)

HousingStarts(mn)

Annual Total

2007 2008 2009 20102.2 -1.1 -5.5 4.50.9 -0.9 -0.7 2.64.7 -2.9 -14.2 0.82.9 -3.4 -21.8 16.60.0 1.4 -1.3 -0.71.8 4.5 -5.2 -0.2

-1.0 -0.3 -3.9 0.63.0 2.8 2.6 2.9

1.06 1.09 0.79 0.813.8 4.0 5.1 5.0

24.8 16.4 13.3 17.2

-15.1 -15.5 -44.7 -44.1 e

0.9 0.7 0.5 0.31.5 1.2 1.3 1.1

新設住宅


PrivateConsumption

ConsumerPrices



0.0 -1.7 -0.8 -0.3 1.6 2.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5

-0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0

-0.5 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1

DECEMBER 2011


4.5 3.4 11.2 14.1 na na na na na na4.5 4.4 9.6 7.9 na na 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.34.7 4.8 na na na na na na na na4.8 4.6 na na na na na na 1.1 1.34.6 4.5 10.6 11.6 -51.5 -40.2 na na 1.2 1.34.5 4.1 10.9 12.8 na na 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.44.9 5.0 13.1 9.9 -46.6 -39.7 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.34.6 4.3 na na na na na na 1.4 1.24.6 4.4 10.6 10.6 na na 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.24.5 4.6 10.1 11.2 na na 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.14.5 4.5 10.0 8.8 na na na na 1.1 1.24.5 4.2 10.8 10.6 na na na na 0.9 1.24.6 4.5 10.1 10.7 na na na na 1.1 1.24.5 4.0 10.5 11.0 na na na na na na4.5 4.2 10.5 13.6 na na 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.14.5 4.4 9.5 5.2 -54.0 -57.0 na na na na4.5 4.3 9.9 10.9 na na 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.24.6 4.6 10.4 10.2 -43.6 -44.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.24.1 3.9 19.8 24.8 -52.0 -53.0 na na na na4.3 4.6 10.1 11.1 -42.2 -43.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.34.5 4.3 9.2 10.3 na na na na 1.2 1.34.6 4.5 9.7 9.3 na na 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.2

4.5 4.4 10.9 11.3 -48.3 -46.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.2

4.6 4.3 10.8 11.9 -46.5 -45.94.7 4.5 11.1 12.9 -48.0 -47.04.9 5.0 19.8 24.8 -42.2 -39.7 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.44.1 3.4 9.2 5.2 -54.0 -57.0 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.10.2 0.3 2.3 3.8 4.9 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

4.9 4.8 -48.4 -43.74.6 4.5

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


China 19.4United States 15.6South Korea 8.1Asia (inc. the above) 32.7Latin America 5.5Middle East 3.3

JAPAN

Real Growth and Inflation(% change over previous year)

YearAverage Annual Total

Fiscal Years(Apr-Mar)

2011 2012 2011 2012


Direction of Trade – 2010Major Import Suppliers

(% of Total)China 22.1United States 9.9Australia 6.5Asia (inc. the above) 36.7Middle East 17.0Latin America 3.9

%

Unemploy-ment

Rate (%)

CurrentAccount

(¥tn)

GeneralGovernment

BudgetBalance (¥tn)

3 monthYen TIBOR

Rate(%)

10 YearGovt BondYield (%)

<Forecast>

0.3% 1.0%

FY FY11-12 12-13

-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4


GDP Growth and Inflation ForecastsConsensus Forecasts from Survey of:%

2012 Consumer PriceInflation Forecasts (%)

2012 Real GDPGrowth

Forecasts (%)


Signs of Weakness in Industrial ActivityThe final GDP release confirmed that the economy re-bounded by 1.4% (q-o-q) during the third quarter. This wasslower than the 1.5% figure announced previously as initialestimates for both private consumption and business in-vestment were revised lower. The former rose by 0.7% (q-o-q) while the latter contracted by 0.4%, rather than the 1.1%expansion expected before. Despite the positive Q3 outturn,monthly data suggest a slowdown in the current quarter.Industrial production rose by 2.4% (m-o-m) in October, butthe PMI for November slipped to 49.1, from 50.6 in Septem-ber. Large declines were noted in the output and new ordersindices which partly reflect supply chain disruptions causedby floods in Thailand as well as worsening global economicconditions. Furthermore, adding to signs of weakness inindustry, core machinery orders declined by a faster-than-expected 6.9% (m-o-m) in October, while exports posted thefirst drop in three months (-3.7% y-o-y) during the samemonth. Domestic demand is showing little sign of revivaleither. Real household spending fell by 0.4% (y-o-y) inOctober, while the unemployment rate for the month in-creased to 4.5%, from 4.1% in September. Total cashearnings rose by 0.1% (y-o-y) in October, but sliding senti-ment and weaker sales and order projections suggest thatthe labour market is likely to remain loose. 2012 GDP growthforecasts have been trimmed again this month.

Core consumer prices fell by 0.1% (y-o-y) in October,dropping for the first since June due to moderating commod-ity prices and the strong yen easing import costs. Thesefactors, coupled with weak domestic demand, are expectedto leave deflation persisting through 2012 and 2013.



DECEMBER 2011


3.2 0.6 1.4 0.7 9.3 2.6 9.4 3.1 2.3 1.6 5.7 2.6 na na3.1 0.0 1.4 0.7 8.9 -1.4 8.0 1.2 2.3 1.5 5.8 2.5 2.2 2.73.0 -0.6 1.1 -0.2 na na 7.1 -1.0 2.2 1.6 5.6 2.3 na na3.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 8.3 1.0 na na 2.3 1.7 na na 2.0 3.13.0 1.0 1.4 1.2 9.2 4.6 8.0 2.7 2.3 1.9 5.7 2.5 2.5 2.83.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 8.9 2.4 8.3 3.5 2.3 2.1 5.6 2.2 1.5 1.73.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 9.3 1.8 na na 2.3 1.8 na na na na3.0 0.0 1.4 1.0 8.6 -0.8 7.8 -1.5 2.3 1.6 5.7 1.4 1.7 2.63.0 0.1 1.5 1.2 8.6 0.1 8.0 -1.5 2.3 1.8 5.6 2.6 2.2 2.93.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 10.5 4.6 8.2 1.9 2.5 1.9 5.6 2.1 na na3.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 na na 8.3 0.8 2.5 1.6 5.6 2.4 na na3.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 9.0 1.0 7.0 1.5 2.3 1.8 5.5 2.0 2.0 2.53.0 0.0 1.5 1.0 8.9 -6.0 7.8 -0.8 2.3 1.7 5.6 2.3 1.8 2.73.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 9.0 3.0 9.0 2.0 2.3 1.9 5.0 1.5 2.0 1.53.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 10.2 5.0 na na 2.4 1.6 na na 1.8 2.53.0 0.2 1.4 0.8 8.2 0.9 8.1 0.1 2.3 1.8 5.7 1.8 1.9 3.73.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 9.4 1.5 8.3 -0.2 2.3 1.4 5.7 1.7 2.5 2.03.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 8.9 2.3 na na 2.4 2.1 na na na na3.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 9.3 2.9 7.0 1.5 2.3 1.9 3.7 2.0 2.5 2.83.0 0.6 1.3 0.9 10.5 0.0 8.5 1.0 2.3 1.5 5.5 1.5 2.0 2.52.9 0.1 1.3 1.0 7.7 -0.8 6.6 -1.3 2.2 1.6 na na na na2.9 -0.4 1.3 0.1 6.8 -0.7 7.7 -2.7 2.4 1.4 na na na na2.9 0.5 1.4 1.0 9.3 2.9 8.5 0.8 2.3 1.6 5.7 2.2 2.4 2.62.9 1.0 1.3 0.7 10.0 4.0 8.0 1.5 2.3 1.7 5.8 2.0 na na2.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 9.4 3.3 9.4 3.5 2.3 1.7 na na 2.1 2.52.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 9.6 3.3 na na 2.3 1.8 na na na na2.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 8.2 1.3 na na 2.4 1.8 na na na na2.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.8 3.0 8.6 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.9 2.0 2.0 2.02.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 10.1 7.4 na na 2.3 1.9 na na na na

3.0 0.5 1.3 0.9 9.1 1.8 8.1 0.9 2.3 1.7 5.5 2.1 2.1 2.5

2.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 10.0 2.8 7.8 1.7 2.3 1.8 5.5 2.1 2.3 2.72.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 10.4 3.9 7.8 2.9 2.3 1.9 5.4 2.3 2.2 2.83.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 10.5 7.4 9.4 3.5 2.5 2.1 5.9 2.6 2.5 3.72.8 -0.6 0.9 -0.2 6.8 -6.0 6.6 -2.7 2.2 1.4 3.7 1.4 1.5 1.50.1 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.7 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5

2.6 1.82.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 10.1 3.5 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.5 2.2 1.33.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 2.4 1.6

UBSDeutsche Bank Econ Intelligence UnitRWI EssenAllianzBank Julius BaerCitigroupCommerzbankDekaBankDZ BankGoldman SachsHWWIIHS Global InsightIW - Cologne InstituteKiel EconomicsLandesbank BerlinMM WarburgSal Oppenheim WestLBWGZ BankMorgan StanleyBank of America - MerrillBayernLBHelaba FrankfurtUniCreditIFO - Munich InstituteDIW - BerlinHSBC TrinkausIfW - Kiel Institute

Consensus (Mean)


Comparison ForecastsGovernment (May '11)Eur Commission (Nov. '11)IMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

NegotiatedWages and

Salaries


Gross Domestic Product*Private Consumption*Machinery & Eqpt Investment*Industrial Production*Consumer Prices*Producer Prices*Negotiated Wages & Salaries*Unemployment Rate, %Current Account, Euro bnGeneral Govt. Budget Balance (Maastricht definition), Euro bn

3 mth Euro, % (end yr)10 Yr German Govt Bond, % (end yr)

GERMANY

Historical DataGovernment and Background Data


PrivaterVerbrauch

Bruttoinlands-produkt


Ausrüstungs-investitionen

Produktion imProduzierenden

Gewerbe

Tariflohn- und-gehaltsniveau

Index fürErzeugerpreise

Preisindexfür die

Lebenshaltung

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012Economic Forecasters

PrivateConsumption

Machinery &EquipmentInvestment


ConsumerPrices

ProducerPrices

2007 2008 2009 20103.3 1.1 -5.1 3.7

-0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.610.5 3.6 -22.8 10.5

5.9 -0.1 -15.4 10.12.3 2.7 0.4 1.11.3 5.5 -4.2 1.62.0 3.0 2.4 1.89.0 7.8 8.2 7.7

181 155 134 141

5.8 -1.4 -76.3 -1064.7 2.8 0.7 1.0

4.3 3.0 3.4 3.0Percentage Change (year-on-year).

Chancellor - Mrs. Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Party or CDU).Parliament - A coalition of the CDU/CSU and FPD has a small majority in the622-seat Bundestag (lower house); the CDU/CSU has a majority in theBundesrat (upper house). Next Elections - By September 2013 (Bundestag).Nominal GDP - Euro 2,494bn (2010). Population - 82.1mn mid-year (2010).$/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.326 (average, 2010).


PrivateConsumption

ConsumerPrices



4.6 2.9 2.6 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5

2.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1

2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7

DECEMBER 2011


7.1 7.0 141 161 -51.4 7.8 0.5 0.5 2.1 2.47.1 7.2 139 125 -33.5 -34.0 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.2na na na na na na na na na na

7.1 6.8 135 144 -23.0 -20.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.27.1 6.8 134 138 -26.0 -10.0 1.2 1.3 2.3 3.37.1 7.0 na na na na 1.0 0.6 2.0 2.37.1 7.1 132 98 -44.4 -42.0 1.3 0.5 1.8 1.57.0 6.9 135 143 -49.1 -54.8 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.47.1 6.8 133 143 -33.3 -26.0 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.67.1 6.8 132 126 -41.0 -40.0 1.0 0.7 1.8 2.07.1 7.0 122 107 na na 1.2 1.2 2.5 2.87.1 6.9 138 128 -28.0 -26.0 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.57.1 7.1 129 131 -25.7 -23.0 1.1 0.8 2.0 2.56.8 6.5 na na -27.0 -7.0 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.57.0 7.0 145 137 -24.0 -18.0 1.0 0.8 2.0 2.77.1 6.6 133 124 -36.0 -39.0 1.1 1.0 2.6 2.37.2 7.1 125 120 -35.0 -38.0 1.2 0.9 2.0 2.57.1 6.8 na na na na 0.9 0.6 2.0 2.07.1 6.9 na na -40.0 -22.0 1.0 0.6 1.8 2.47.1 7.0 137 125 na na 0.7 0.7 2.1 2.37.1 7.4 136 127 -39.7 -44.5 1.0 0.8 1.6 2.27.1 7.3 133 125 na na na na na na7.1 6.7 135 130 -27.0 -19.0 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.47.1 6.8 135 135 -33.0 -26.0 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.87.1 6.9 130 125 -30.0 -25.0 1.2 1.1 2.8 3.27.0 6.7 121 113 -23.0 -15.4 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.57.1 7.1 123 127 -28.0 -19.0 na na na na7.0 6.5 130 128 -45.0 -38.0 1.5 1.3 2.5 2.77.1 6.8 na na -33.7 -16.5 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.8

7.1 6.9 133 129 -33.8 -25.9 1.1 1.0 2.1 2.5

7.0 6.8 134 132 -38.8 -28.36.9 6.7 133 135 -40.3 -27.37.2 7.4 145 161 -23.0 7.8 1.6 1.6 2.8 3.36.8 6.5 121 98 -51.4 -54.8 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.50.1 0.2 6 13 8.4 14.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4

6.1 5.9 130 1166.0 6.2 -42.8 -28.8

Rates on Survey DateYearAverage 2.0%

Annual Total

Leistungs-bilanz(€ bn)

3 MonateEuro(%)

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

Finanzierungs-saldo des

Staates(Maastricht)

(€ bn)

Rendite vonBundesan-leihen, 10Jahre (%)

Arbeitslosen-quote, % derErwerbspers.

insgesamt

1.4%

GERMANY

Unemploy-ment

Rate (%)

CurrentAccount(Euro bn)

General GovtBudget Bal(Maastricht)

(Euro bn)

3 monthEuro

Rate (%)

10 YearGerman

Govt BondYield (%)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


Direction of Trade – 2010Major Export Markets

(% of Total)France 10.1Netherlands 6.9United Kingdom 6.5Eastern Europe 13.2Asia (ex. Japan) 7.2Latin America 2.8


Netherlands 13.4France 8.0China 7.9Eastern Europe 13.2Asia (ex. Japan) 10.8Latin America 1.9

%

<Forecast>


%


2012 Real GDPGrowth

Forecasts (%)



Recession Fears IncreaseStandard and Poor’s gave German government debt a‘negative’ outlook as markets grew impatient with the inabil-ity of European leaders to agree on solutions to the Euro zonedebt crisis. However, Germany is still performing markedlybetter than the rest of the Euro area. The unemployment ratefell to 6.9% in October, so far defying the upward trend in therest of the region. Job vacancies continued to rise, increas-ing by 11,000 (m-o-m) in October although that could changeas the economic situation in the Euro zone dramaticallyworsens (see page 18). Workers are also benefiting fromwage growth which is expected to outstrip the pace ofinflation next year.

Elsewhere, exports rose by 2.5% (q-o-q) in Q3, with export-ers profiting from the weak euro and emerging marketdemand. October industrial production also rose, by a strong4.1% (y-o-y). However, the manufacturing PMI fell for theseventh successive month to 47.9 (below the expansionary50-index level), showing that manufacturers are pessimisticabout the future as the Euro zone crisis deepens and startsto besmirch Germany’s usually solid economic reputation.Chancellor Merkel is pushing for closer fiscal union amongEuro zone members with stringent penalties for those thatfail to control their budget deficits. However, the responsefrom the markets to these latest agreements has beenlukewarm at best; the prevailing view appears to be that thesummit failed on a few fronts. Elsewhere, November infla-tion slowed to 2.4% (y-o-y), falling toward the ECB target rateof 2%. The slowdown in inflation helped to give the ECB morescope to lower the base rate to 1.0% at its Decembermeeting, reversing the rate hikes seen in the summer.



DECEMBER 2011


BIPEMorgan StanleyAXA Investment ManagersCoe-RexecodeCredit AgricoleExaneGAMAGoldman SachsHSBC FranceIHS Global InsightNatixisOddo SecuritiesSociete GeneraleTotalUBSUniCreditBNP ParibasCitigroupEcon Intelligence UnitBank of America - Merrill

Consensus (Mean)


Comparison ForecastsGovernment (Oct. '11)Eur Commission (Nov. '11)IMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

1.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 3.9 0.5 na na 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.51.6 0.3 0.7 0.9 3.6 -1.4 4.3 0.1 2.1 1.8 na na1.6 -0.4 0.6 0.2 2.9 0.7 2.8 -1.0 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.81.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 3.9 0.5 na na 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.81.6 0.2 0.6 0.7 3.6 0.5 4.0 -3.5 2.1 1.5 na na1.6 0.1 0.9 0.6 4.9 1.3 3.7 1.7 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.31.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 3.9 0.3 na na 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.91.6 -0.4 0.6 0.0 na na 2.5 -2.5 2.2 1.6 na na1.6 1.3 0.6 1.2 3.9 1.6 4.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.41.6 -0.7 0.5 -0.3 2.8 -0.3 2.8 -1.3 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.21.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 3.9 0.0 3.8 0.0 2.1 2.0 na na1.6 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 3.6 -1.5 3.6 -1.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.61.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 4.0 1.2 na na 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.01.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 4.2 3.5 na na 2.1 1.7 na na1.6 -0.8 0.6 0.0 2.8 -0.9 na na 2.0 1.5 na na1.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 3.9 2.0 na na 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.01.6 0.3 0.6 0.3 3.9 -1.5 2.8 -0.5 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.31.6 -0.7 0.6 -0.2 2.6 -3.0 na na 2.1 1.6 na na1.6 -1.0 0.6 -0.5 na na na na 2.2 1.8 na na1.6 -0.6 0.5 -0.3 na na na na 2.2 1.7 na na

1.6 0.1 0.6 0.3 3.7 0.2 3.4 -0.6 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.9

1.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.4 1.7 3.6 0.5 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.01.7 1.2 0.7 1.1 4.7 3.1 3.6 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.21.7 1.3 0.9 1.2 4.9 3.5 4.3 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.41.6 -1.0 0.5 -0.5 2.6 -3.0 2.5 -3.5 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.30.0 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.6 0.6 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3

1.8 1.01.6 0.6 0.7 0.91.7 1.4 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.41.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 2.8 0.7 2.1 1.4

Historical Data

FRANCE


President - Mr. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP). Prime Minister - Mr. FrançoisFillon (UMP). Parliament - The centre-right Union for a PopularMovement (UMP) currently has 314 out of the 577 seats in the NationalAssembly. Next Elections - Presidential: by April 2012. Nominal GDP- Euro1,931bn (2010). Population - 62.6mn (mid-year, 2010). $/EuroExchange Rate - 1.326 (average, 2010).


Gross Domestic Product*

Household Consumption*

Business Investment*

Manufacturing Production*

Consumer Prices*

Hourly Wage Rates*

Unemployment Rate (ILO), %

Current Account, Euro bn

General Govt. Budget Balance

(Maastricht definition), Euro bn

3 mth Euro, % (end yr)

10 Yr French Govt Bond,

% (end yr)

2007 2008 2009 2010

2.2 -0.2 -2.6 1.4

2.3 0.2 0.1 1.3

8.9 2.3 -11.9 2.0

1.6 -3.4 -13.9 4.4

1.5 2.8 0.1 1.5

2.9 3.1 2.3 1.8

8.0 7.4 9.1 9.4

-18.9 -33.7 -28.4 -33.7

-51.6 -64.3 -143 -137

4.7 2.8 0.7 1.0

4.4 3.5 3.6 3.4

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012


ConsumerPrices

Consommationdes Ménages

Investissementsdes Entreprises

Prix à laConsommation


Taux de SalaireHoraire

ProduitIntérieur Brut

ProductionManufacturière


HouseholdConsumption

BusinessInvestment

HourlyWage Rates

ManufacturingProduction




ConsumerPrices



2.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.1

1.5 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0

1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8

DECEMBER 2011


9.3 10.3 -30.9 -26.9 -126 -113 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.49.2 9.5 -53.2 -46.7 -117 -103 1.0 0.8 3.3 3.09.3 10.2 -48.0 -45.0 -113 -95 0.9 0.8 3.3 3.39.3 9.7 -43.7 -33.1 -113 -96 1.1 1.0 3.1 3.49.2 9.6 -51.0 -46.8 -114 -91 1.2 0.8 3.3 3.39.1 9.3 -44.0 -43.0 -105 -85 1.0 0.9 2.8 2.89.1 9.6 na na na na 1.2 1.5 3.8 4.29.2 9.4 -42.5 -26.3 na na 1.2 1.2 na na9.2 9.2 -48.0 -59.0 -117 -116 1.3 1.3 3.3 3.49.7 9.8 -45.5 -42.9 -121 -100 na na na na9.3 9.7 -55.0 -50.0 -114 -95 na na na na9.3 9.6 -47.1 -54.8 -113 -99 0.9 0.7 3.4 3.79.3 9.9 -45.0 -47.0 -114 -95 1.3 1.4 3.4 3.69.2 9.2 -48.0 -45.0 -115 -95 1.2 1.3 3.0 3.18.9 8.4 -41.2 -39.1 -114 -91 0.5 0.5 3.0 3.39.8 10.0 -50.0 -52.5 -112 -91 na na na na9.3 10.0 -48.0 -47.0 -113 -92 0.9 0.9 2.9 3.29.2 9.3 -52.1 -45.7 -113 -102 1.0 0.5 3.8 3.59.3 9.7 na na na na na na na na9.8 10.2 -44.3 -35.5 na na na na na na

9.3 9.6 -46.5 -43.7 -115 -97 1.1 1.0 3.2 3.3

9.2 9.2 -49.8 -48.0 -114 -979.1 9.0 -48.1 -47.2 -115 -989.8 10.3 -30.9 -26.3 -105 -85 1.6 1.6 3.8 4.28.9 8.4 -55.0 -59.0 -126 -116 0.5 0.5 2.1 2.40.2 0.4 5.4 8.8 4 8 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

9.8 10.0 -64.6 -67.19.5 9.2 -117 -959.2 9.7

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


FRANCE

%

Direction of Trade – 2010Major Export Markets

(% of Total)Germany 16.4Italy 8.2Spain 7.6Eastern Europe 7.1Africa 6.1Asia (ex. Japan) 5.3


Germany 19.3Belgium 11.4Italy 8.0Eastern Europe 8.1Asia (ex. Japan) 7.4Africa 3.6

%

<Forecast>


SoldeCourant(€ md)

Taux deChômage,

BIT (%)

Annual Total

BalanceBudgétaire(Maastricht)

(€ md)

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

Tauxd'intéret3 mois

Euro (%)

Rendement des obligat-ions d'Etat, 10 ans (%)

3.3%


Unemploy-ment

Rate, ILO(%)

GeneralGovt Budget

Balance(Maastricht)

(Euro bn)

3 monthEuro

Rate (%)

10 YearFrench

Govt Bond Yield (%)


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8



2012 Real GDP GrowthForecasts (%)



2012 Outlook Flirts with RecessionThe Euro zone debt crisis has dragged the French economy– which was previously seen as part of the stable Euro areacore – into the firing line. Financial upheaval and rising 10-year government bond yields are putting into doubt previ-ously-agreed deficit- and debt-reduction targets, even after anew batch of austerity measures and relatively positive Q3national accounts release. GDP rebounded after the previousquarter’s 0.1% (q-o-q) decline, to rise by 0.4% on the back ofhousehold consumption and a 0.1%-point contribution fromnet trade. However, business investment contracted in q-o-q terms while consumption growth was down on a y-o-y basisfrom 0.6% in Q2 to 0.3%. Moreover, real fears are growingabout activity in Q4 which the Banque de France predicts willgrind to a halt. 2012 GDP is now projected to drop close tonegative territory, with our panel predicting a negligeable0.1% advance, down from +0.7% projected last month. Thedebt crisis is discouraging investment and new hiring, prompt-ing business and consumer confidence to plummet and theconsensus forecast for 2012 unemployment to jump from9.2% last month to 9.6%. Hard data is also being affected,with manufacturing production contracting by 2.1% (m-o-m)in October. Monthly goods consumption, too, continues todecline, in y-o-y terms. Forecasts for 2012 have deterioratedfor most variables shown.

France’s budget deficit is currently estimated at 5.7% of GDPand next year is predicted to hover at 4.8%. As a result,Standard & Poor’s has put France’s AAA rating on negativecredit watch. The other Euro zone economies were also puton notice by the ratings agency, but France was the only corecountry threatened with a two-notch downgrade.



DECEMBER 2011


1.0 1.3 -0.8 1.2 -1.1 4.5 na na 2.2 1.1 5.2 3.4 4.5 2.4 na na 2.2 2.41.0 1.5 -1.2 -0.3 -1.6 6.3 9.0 -3.0 2.2 1.5 5.2 3.5 4.4 3.2 5.5 3.5 2.8 3.41.0 1.4 -1.3 0.3 na na na na na na na na 4.4 3.2 na na 2.4 4.11.0 1.0 -1.2 0.3 -1.8 3.2 na na 2.7 0.6 5.3 3.7 4.5 3.3 5.6 1.6 2.8 3.50.9 0.4 -1.1 0.4 -2.0 2.5 na na na na 5.2 3.4 4.5 2.9 5.2 3.0 2.0 2.80.9 0.9 -1.3 0.2 -2.2 1.3 na na 2.7 1.1 5.3 3.8 4.4 2.9 na na 1.9 3.10.9 1.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.5 3.2 3.1 1.6 2.8 0.6 5.3 3.4 4.5 2.9 5.7 5.5 2.4 2.50.9 0.0 -1.0 0.5 -1.8 2.0 na na 2.6 -1.4 5.3 3.3 4.5 2.8 5.6 2.8 2.4 3.00.9 0.7 -1.1 0.7 -0.8 1.6 na na 3.0 3.9 5.2 4.1 4.5 2.7 3.5 2.1 na na0.9 0.3 -1.0 0.7 -1.8 2.7 na na 2.2 0.5 5.4 3.3 4.5 2.7 5.6 2.8 2.3 2.60.9 1.4 -1.0 0.7 -1.1 5.1 4.0 6.0 2.8 2.4 5.3 2.8 4.5 2.4 5.1 3.0 2.1 2.30.9 0.5 -1.1 0.1 -0.8 5.2 na na na na na na 4.5 2.5 4.9 1.4 na na0.9 -0.4 -1.2 0.2 -1.9 1.2 na na na na 5.3 1.2 4.7 0.9 na na 2.3 0.90.9 0.7 -1.1 -0.1 -2.1 0.1 5.0 3.0 2.2 0.2 5.2 2.8 4.5 2.7 5.6 3.5 2.3 2.00.9 0.5 -1.1 0.0 -2.6 -2.9 8.4 7.9 2.2 1.4 5.3 3.5 4.5 2.7 na na 2.8 2.10.9 0.4 -1.3 0.3 -2.1 0.1 3.2 -0.1 2.7 0.1 5.3 2.5 4.5 2.2 3.4 1.4 1.3 2.30.9 0.5 -1.1 0.1 -2.0 0.9 na na 2.5 1.8 5.2 3.3 4.5 3.1 na na 2.4 1.70.9 0.7 -1.3 0.5 -1.9 3.0 na na 2.9 1.4 na na na na na na na na0.8 -0.5 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 2.5 6.0 -5.0 2.2 -1.5 5.2 2.9 4.5 2.5 na na 2.4 1.50.8 0.7 -1.2 0.8 -1.9 1.7 na na na na 5.4 4.1 4.5 3.0 na na na na0.8 0.3 -1.3 -0.1 -1.9 2.5 na na 2.2 0.5 na na 4.4 2.1 5.2 2.2 2.6 2.60.8 0.7 -1.2 0.5 na na na na na na 5.7 3.0 4.5 3.0 na na na na0.7 1.8 -1.0 2.6 -2.1 4.7 na na 2.4 0.9 5.2 2.6 4.5 2.2 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.9

0.9 0.7 -1.2 0.4 -1.8 2.4 5.5 1.5 2.5 0.9 5.3 3.2 4.5 2.7 5.0 2.8 2.3 2.5

1.0 1.1 -0.9 0.6 -1.1 2.8 6.0 1.9 2.7 1.3 5.3 3.3 4.5 2.8 5.1 2.9 2.6 2.71.2 1.8 -0.4 1.2 0.6 4.8 7.2 4.1 2.7 2.4 5.2 3.2 4.4 2.7 5.0 3.1 2.6 3.01.0 1.8 -0.8 2.6 -0.8 6.3 9.0 7.9 3.0 3.9 5.7 4.1 4.7 3.3 5.7 5.5 2.8 4.10.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.5 -2.6 -2.9 3.1 -5.0 2.2 -1.5 5.2 1.2 4.4 0.9 3.4 1.4 1.3 0.90.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 2.1 2.4 4.6 0.3 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.8

0.9 0.7 -1.1 0.2 -2.1 3.5 7.6 3.4 5.2 3.3 4.5 2.70.7 0.6 -1.1 -0.5 -1.6 1.11.1 1.6 -0.5 1.5 -2.5 1.9 4.5 2.40.9 0.5 -0.9 0.5 -2.4 -0.9 4.5 2.7

HSBC Economic PerspectivesLiverpool Macro ResearchRBS Financial MarketsNomuraBarclays CapitalConfed of British IndustryDeutsche BankGoldman SachsIHS Global InsightITEM ClubJP Morgan SchrodersSociete GeneraleCitigroupOxford EconomicsExperianCambridge EconometricsCapital EconomicsCredit SuisseING Financial MarketsEcon Intelligence UnitBeacon Econ Forecasting

Consensus (Mean)


Comparison ForecastsTreasury - OBR (Nov. '11)Eur Commission (Nov. '11)IMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

Gross Domestic Product*Household Consumption*Gross Fixed Investment*Company Trading Profits*Manufacturing Production*Retail Prices (RPI-X underlying rate)*

Consumer Prices Index (HICP)*Output Prices*Average Weekly Earnings*Unemployment Rate %(Claimant Count)

Current Account, £ bnPublic Sector Net Borrowing (excl. financial interventions),

fiscal yrs, £ bn3 mth Interbank, % (end yr)10 Yr Gilt Yields, % (end yr)

Historical Data


RetailPrices (RPI-X, underly-

ing rate)

UNITED KINGDOM


Prime Minister - Mr. David Cameron (Conservative Party). Parliament-The Conservative party has formed a coalition with the Liberal Democratparty, with a working majority in the 650-seat House of Commons (lowerhouse). Next Election - By May 2015 (general election). Nominal GDP- £1,454bn (2010). Population - 61.9mn (mid-year, 2010). $/£ ExchangeRate - 1.545 (average, 2010).

CompanyTradingProfits

2011 2012Economic Forecasters



GrossFixed

Investment

Manufactur-ing

Produc-tion

OutputPrices

AverageWeekly

Earnings

HouseholdConsump-

tion

ConsumerPricesIndex(HICP)

2007 2008 2009 20103.5 -1.1 -4.4 1.8

2.7 -1.4 -3.5 1.0

8.1 -4.8 -13.4 2.6

5.4 -4.7 -6.6 1.5

0.5 -2.9 -10.7 3.5

3.2 4.3 2.0 4.8

2.3 3.6 2.2 3.3

2.6 7.3 0.6 4.2

4.8 3.5 -0.1 2.3

2.7 2.8 4.7 4.7

-34.8 -19.8 -20.3 -36.7

32.3 77.8 157 137

6.0 2.6 0.7 0.8

4.6 3.0 4.0 3.6

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012




ConsumerPrices (HICP)



1.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7

-0.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4

4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0

DECEMBER 2011


0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8


na na -27.3 -26.0 122 98 0.8 0.9 2.2 2.24.9 5.2 -26.0 -20.0 128 110 1.2 1.5 3.0 4.04.7 4.4 -5.8 -8.1 122 101 2.0 2.5 na na5.0 5.9 -17.0 -9.0 126 112 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.8na na -18.7 -32.2 124 122 1.2 0.9 2.3 2.5na na -14.0 -6.7 127 117 1.1 1.2 3.3 3.54.8 5.1 -10.3 -8.2 130 110 na na na na4.8 5.5 -17.6 -22.3 127 125 0.9 0.9 2.4 2.74.5 4.5 na na na na na na na na4.8 5.5 -20.0 -25.0 129 125 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.94.7 4.8 -38.0 -17.0 128 110 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.7na na -23.2 -36.0 132 120 na na na na4.8 5.5 -16.0 -30.0 150 140 0.8 1.1 2.1 2.54.8 5.8 -14.0 -12.0 127 124 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.94.7 5.4 -3.3 25.1 121 122 0.9 0.8 2.0 1.64.8 5.2 -19.2 -24.7 123 111 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.94.9 6.1 -16.0 -36.9 137 119 0.8 0.6 2.5 3.1na na na na na na na na na na4.9 6.0 -28.0 -40.0 130 130 na na 2.0 2.0na na na na na na na na na na4.7 5.5 -25.0 -20.0 130 110 1.0 1.0 2.3 2.5na na na na na na na na na na4.7 5.2 -20.1 -29.3 135 150 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.8

4.8 5.3 -18.9 -19.9 129 119 1.0 1.1 2.4 2.7

4.7 5.2 -22.1 -17.1 128 1144.7 4.9 -31.5 -23.8 129 1105.0 6.1 -3.3 25.1 150 150 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.04.5 4.4 -38.0 -40.0 121 98 0.8 0.6 1.8 1.60.1 0.5 8.1 15.0 7 13 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6

-32.0 -36.0 127 120

-5-4-3-2-10123456

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


United States 11.4Germany 11.2Netherlands 8.5Eastern Europe 5.5Asia (ex. Japan) 5.0Middle East 3.5

Fiscal Years(Apr-Mar)


UNITED KINGDOM


Annual Total

2011 2012 2011 2012

1.1%



Germany 13.1China 9.1Netherlands 7.5Asia (ex. Japan) 13.6Eastern Europe 6.3Latin America 2.5

%

CurrentAccount

(£ bn)

Public Sec-tor Net

Borrowing(£ bn)

3 monthInterbankRate (%)

10 YearGilt Yield

(%)

Unemploy-ment

Rate (%)(Claimant

Count)

<Forecast>

FY FY11-12 12-13

% GDP Growth and Inflation ForecastsConsensus Forecasts from Survey of:


2012 Real GDPGrowth

Forecasts (%)

UK Official Bank Rate – December 12, 2011 = 0.50%

0.51% 0.53% 0.56% 0.61%

0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

ConsensusMean Average:

Mode (mostfrequent forecast):

FORECASTS End Dec. End Mar. End June End Sep.2011 2012 2012 2012



Government Growth Predictions FallThe Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts wereheavily revised downward this month, with GDP growth nowat just 0.7% for 2012 (in line with our panel’s own assess-ment). Furthermore, there is a downside risk to the currentOBR growth forecasts depending on the direction of the Eurozone crisis. Lower growth expectations meant that Chancel-lor Osborne had to announce additional tightening measuresfor 2015-17 in order to achieve his target of a balancedbudget. The chancellor also announced a credit easingprogramme where the government guarantees lending tosmall and medium-sized enterprises, as well as announcingan increase in infrastructure spending in an attempt to helpmitigate the worst impact of austerity measures. Cuts topublic sector pensions led to widespread strikes in Novemberand further cuts are likely to lead to more industrial action.However, government bond yields remain low as investorssearch for safe havens from the embattled Euro zone.

Elsewhere, inflation has begun to recede, down to 5% (y-o-y) in October, having reached 5.2% in November. The paceof price increases remains strong, but the latest inflation datameans that the Bank of England is even less likely to raisethe base rate which our panel does not foresee happening inthe next 12 months (see below). Meanwhile, the trade gapnarrowed sharply in October, with exports rising by 8.7% (m-o-m). However, the turmoil in the UK’s key export marketmeans the surge is unlikely to represent a trend. Imports fellby 1.5% over the same period due to falling consumerdemand. Total employment fell 2.7% in the three months toSeptember, while the claimant count continues to grow withjoblessness expected to continue its escalation into 2012.



14

DECEMBER 2011


0.9 -1.0 0.8 -0.5 1.5 -1.7 1.4 -5.2 2.6 1.6 4.9 2.2 na na

0.6 -0.7 0.6 -0.6 0.8 -1.4 0.3 -5.3 2.9 1.9 na na na na

0.6 -1.6 0.5 -2.1 0.6 -1.4 0.8 -4.2 2.9 2.0 5.0 0.8 1.8 1.7

0.6 -0.6 0.7 -0.7 0.8 -1.6 0.7 -2.0 2.8 1.8 5.0 0.5 1.7 1.6

0.6 -0.3 0.7 -0.5 0.7 0.1 na na 2.7 2.2 4.8 2.3 na na

0.6 -2.0 0.4 -2.0 1.5 -1.0 1.3 -1.0 2.8 2.3 4.8 0.9 na na

0.5 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.2 1.2 -0.3 2.9 2.6 na na na na

0.5 -0.5 0.6 -0.6 1.2 -2.4 na na 2.8 2.1 na na na na

0.5 -1.3 0.5 -1.0 0.1 -5.4 0.7 -0.7 2.8 2.4 5.1 1.8 1.8 1.5

0.5 -1.5 0.6 -0.8 0.6 -2.3 0.1 -3.1 2.7 2.0 na na na na

0.4 -1.9 0.7 -1.3 0.0 -4.6 na na 2.9 2.4 na na na na

0.6 -1.0 0.6 -0.9 0.8 -2.0 0.8 -2.7 2.8 2.1 4.9 1.4 1.8 1.6

0.6 -0.2 0.7 -0.3 0.9 -0.5 1.2 -1.3 2.7 2.0 4.9 1.4 1.8 1.6

0.7 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.4 2.6 1.9 4.9 2.1 1.8 1.7

0.9 -0.2 0.8 0.1 1.5 0.1 1.4 -0.3 2.9 2.6 5.1 2.3 1.8 1.7

0.4 -2.0 0.4 -2.1 0.0 -5.4 0.1 -5.3 2.6 1.6 4.8 0.5 1.7 1.5

0.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.7 0.5 2.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1

1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.5

0.5 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 -1.2

0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.3 2.6 1.6

0.7 -0.5 0.9 0.2 0.7 -0.9 2.7 1.7

UBS

Bank of America - Merrill

Goldman Sachs

Prometeia

UniCredit

Econ Intelligence Unit

HSBC

Centro Europa Ricerche

Ref.

IHS Global Insight

Citigroup

Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago

High

Low

Standard Deviation

Comparison Forecasts

Government (Apr. '11)

Eur Commission (Nov. '11)

IMF (Sep. '11)

OECD (Nov. '11)

ITALY


Gross Domestic Product*

Household Consumption*

Gross Fixed Investment*

Industrial Production*

Consumer Prices*

Producer Prices*

Contractual Hourly Earnings*

Unemployment Rate,%

Current Account, Euro bn


(Maastricht definition), Euro bn

3 mth Euro, % (end yr)

10 yr Italian Govt Bond,

% (end yr)

Historical Data


RetribuzioneOrarie

Contrattuali

Prezzi allaProduzione

Prezzial Consumo

ProduzioneIndustriale

InvestimentiFissi Lordi

Consumidelle Famiglie

ProdottoInterno Lordo

ContractualHourly

Earnings

ProducerPrices

ConsumerPrices


GrossFixed

Investment



2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012Economic Forecasters

2007 2008 2009 2010

1.4 -1.3 -5.2 1.2

1.1 -0.8 -1.8 1.0

1.4 -3.8 -12.0 2.3

1.8 -3.5 -18.8 6.4

1.8 3.3 0.8 1.5

3.0 5.1 -4.7 3.0

2.2 3.5 3.1 2.1

6.2 6.8 7.8 8.4

-19.9 -45.2 -30.1 -54.1

-25.3 -42.7 -83.0 -72.0

4.7 2.8 0.7 1.0

4.6 4.3 4.2 4.9


Prime Minister - Mr. Mario Monti . Parliament - An emergency govern-ment was formed in November 2011 to address the current economicinstability. The cabinet is comprised of technocrats and is supported by85% of parliament. Next Elections - By 2013 (parliamentary). NominalGDP - Euro1,548bn (2010). Population - 60.1mn (mid-year, 2010). $/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.326 (average, 2010).




ConsumerPrices



1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.2 -0.9 -0.5 0.0

0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2

2.4 2.6 2.8 3.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6

DECEMBER 2011


7.9 8.2 na na -61.6 -30.1 0.5 0.5 5.3 5.6

8.3 9.0 -52.8 -41.0 na na na na na na

8.2 8.7 -56.8 -49.7 na na 1.2 1.2 na na

8.2 8.9 -54.5 -31.5 -61.9 -25.6 1.0 0.9 5.7 5.1

8.1 8.2 na na na na na na na na

8.3 9.5 na na na na na na na na

8.1 8.3 -63.1 -16.0 na na 1.3 1.3 5.4 5.5

8.1 8.2 -65.3 -55.6 -61.8 -33.4 1.3 1.3 5.4 4.8

8.1 8.5 -62.0 -41.5 -63.2 -46.8 1.2 1.2 6.0 5.5

8.3 9.3 -55.1 -48.7 -59.9 -39.4 na na 6.9 6.0

8.1 9.1 -59.8 -50.8 -63.7 -59.9 1.3 0.5 6.7 5.1

8.1 8.7 -58.7 -41.8 -62.0 -39.2 1.1 1.0 5.9 5.4

8.1 8.4 -63.6 -50.3 -62.1 -36.0

8.1 8.1 -63.8 -53.8 -61.1 -39.7

8.3 9.5 -52.8 -16.0 -59.9 -25.6 1.3 1.3 6.9 6.0

7.9 8.2 -65.3 -55.6 -63.7 -59.9 0.5 0.5 5.3 4.8

0.1 0.5 4.5 12.8 1.3 12.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4

8.4 8.3

8.1 8.2 -57.6 -48.3

8.2 8.5 -64.2 -38.2

-1.1

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2


-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16


Germany 13.2France 11.8Spain 5.9Eastern Europe 13.1Middle East 5.5Asia (ex. Japan) 4.8

2011 2012


2011 2012 2011 2012



GeneralGovt

Budget Bal(Maastricht)

(Euro bn)

Annual Total

10 YearItalian

Govt BondYield (%)

Tasso diDisoccupaz-

ione (%)

PartiteCorrenti(€ mld)

Buoni del TesoroDecennali

(%)

3 monthEuro

Rate (%)


Unemploy-ment

Rate (%)

ITALY

InteressiEuro Tri-

mestrali (%)

1.4%

Direction of Trade – 2010Major Import Suppliers

(% of Total)Germany 16.2France 8.5China 7.9Eastern Europe 13.4Asia (ex. Japan) 10.9Middle East 7.5

%

<Forecast>

Indebit-amentonetto

(Maastricht)(€ mld)

%GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:


2012 Real GDPGrowth

Forecasts (%)

Sharp Drop in GDP ForecastsNew caretaker prime minister Mario Monti announced €20bnin public sector cuts to be implemented between 2012 and2014 as part of austerity measures designed to reassure thefinancial markets of Italy’s economic viability. These comeon top of the €60bn cuts agreed earlier in the year. Theproposals also includes a VAT hike to 23%, extra charges onluxury goods and a rise in the retirement age to 67 for bothmen and women. As part of the package, €6.4bn is to bereleased for infrastructure projects designed to stimulateeconomic growth. Although the announced reforms havebeen broadly welcomed by ratings agencies and EU leaders,they do little to tackle the labour market rigidities that areexacerbating the current crisis. Unemployment continued torise in October, reaching 8.5%, with youth particularlyaffected. Joblessness among 15-24 year olds reached 29.2%.Italy also has the lowest female employment rate of anyOECD nation, at 46.5% in October.

The economy is already showing signs of entering reces-sion, with industrial production plummeting by 4.2% (y-o-y)in October following a 4.6% (y-o-y) collapse in September.Elsewhere, retail sales have continued falling, by 1.6% (y-o-y) in September. Although the government statistics officehas delayed the release of Q3 GDP (due to a number ofrevisions to previous data), our panel suggests that growthwas flat in the July-September period and likely continued todecline at the end of this year. Meanwhile, borrowing costshave remained high, with government bond yields consist-ently breaching the 7% danger zone over the past month,suggesting continued market jitters despite the change ofgovernment.



16

DECEMBER 2011


2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 12.3 9.3 na na na na 3.0 1.9 na na na na 195 193

2.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 13.3 -2.7 22.1 6.4 na na 3.0 2.8 na na na na 195 201

2.4 1.7 1.9 1.5 11.7 3.1 13.0 1.5 na na 2.9 1.7 na na na na 192 181

2.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 14.5 6.4 12.0 3.5 3.7 2.8 3.0 1.8 na na na na 192 180

2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 14.6 6.8 13.0 4.0 3.6 2.5 3.0 2.5 4.6 2.4 1.7 1.8 191 182

2.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 15.9 6.0 10.3 4.0 3.3 1.5 2.9 1.9 na na na na 185 175


2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 14.9 8.3 13.7 3.8 na na 2.9 2.0 4.4 -0.2 1.7 1.7 192 175

2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 15.0 8.0 12.0 5.0 3.8 2.9 3.0 2.3 4.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 191 183


2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 14.5 7.6 na na 3.7 3.1 2.9 1.7 4.8 3.5 na na na na

2.3 2.1 1.9 2.0 13.8 4.8 15.3 5.8 na na 3.0 2.2 na na na na 192 175

2.3 2.5 1.9 2.1 14.2 4.4 13.6 13.5 na na 2.9 1.7 na na na na 193 185

2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 14.7 6.2 13.8 2.5 3.9 5.1 3.0 1.8 4.6 1.7 na na 194 190

2.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 na na na na 3.6 3.2 2.9 1.9 4.4 3.2 na na na na

2.3 2.2 1.7 2.0 17.0 5.0 12.2 4.0 4.2 2.3 3.0 2.2 4.0 3.0 2.1 2.5 188 175

2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 14.2 7.3 13.2 4.2 na na 2.9 2.0 na na na na 191 177

2.1 2.4 1.9 2.8 16.0 7.8 14.5 7.8 na na 2.8 2.0 4.2 1.8 na na 186 186

2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 14.8 6.2 13.7 5.1 3.7 2.9 2.9 2.0 4.4 2.2 2.0 2.1 190 180

2.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 16.3 7.4 12.3 5.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.0 4.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 190 180

2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2 16.5 8.1 13.0 5.5 2.8 3.3 2.8 2.0 4.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 181 176

2.4 2.5 2.0 2.8 18.2 9.7 22.1 13.5 4.2 5.1 3.0 2.8 4.8 3.5 2.5 2.5 195 201

2.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 11.7 -2.7 10.3 1.5 3.3 1.5 2.8 1.7 4.0 -0.2 1.7 1.7 180 160

0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.8 3.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.4 4 11

2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.9 2.1

2.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.8 1.6

CIBC World MarketsMerrill Lynch CanadaToronto Dominion BankScotia EconomicsBMO Capital MarketsCaisse de DepotCapital EconomicsDesjardinsEconomapEDC EconomicsJP MorganNational Bank FinancialRoyal Bank of CanadaIHS Global InsightEcon Intelligence UnitInformetricaUniversity of TorontoConf Board of Canada

Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean 3 Months Ago HighLowStandard Deviation

Comparison ForecastsIMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)


Gross Domestic Product*Personal Expenditure*Machinery & Eqpt Investment*Pre - Tax Corporate Profits*Industrial Production*Consumer Prices*Industrial Product Prices*Average Hourly Earnings*Housing Starts, '000 unitsUnemployment Rate, %Current Account, C$ bnFederal Govt Budget Balance, fiscal years, C$ bn3 mth Trsy Bill, % (end yr)10 Yr Govt Bond, % (end yr)


Historical Data

IndustrialProductPrices

Machinery& Equip-

mentInvestment

PersonalExpendi-

ture


ConsumerPrices

ProduitIntérieur

Brut

Dépensesde Con-

sommationdes

Ménages

Investisse-ment

Productif

Prix à laConsom-mation

Prix desProduits

Industriels

HousingStarts

(thousand units)

Construc-tion de

Logementsmises enchantier,milliers


ProductionIndustrielle


AnnualTotal

Pre - TaxCorporate

Profits

Bénéficesdes

Sociétésavant

impôts

Historical DataGovernment and Background DataPrime Minister - Mr. Stephen Harper (Conservative). Government -

The Conservatives hold 167 out of 308 seats in parliament (155 seats

are needed for a clear majority). Next Election - by May 2015 (general

election). Nominal GDP - C$1,625bn (2010). Population - 33.9mn

(mid-year, 2010). C$/$ Exchange Rate - 1.030 (average, 2010).

CANADA

Economic Forecasters 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010

2.2 0.7 -2.8 3.2

4.6 3.0 0.4 3.3

4.2 -0.5 -19.5 11.8

1.9 11.0 -33.1 21.2

-0.5 -3.1 -9.5 4.9

2.1 2.4 0.3 1.8

1.6 4.3 -3.5 1.0

4.6 3.5 3.0 3.0

228 211 149 190

6.1 6.2 8.3 8.0

12.8 5.3 -45.2 -50.9

9.6 -5.8 -55.6 -33.4

3.8 0.9 0.2 1.0

4.0 2.9 3.6 3.2

AverageHourly

Earnings

Rémunér-ation

HoraireMoyenne



PersonalExpenditure

ConsumerPrices



2.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5

2.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3

2.6 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0

DECEMBER 2011


1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8


7.5 7.6 -48.4 -48.1 na na 0.9 1.0 2.4 2.8

7.4 7.4 -49.7 -32.1 -28.8 -18.4 0.3 0.5 1.9 2.8

7.4 7.6 -51.5 -30.6 na na 0.9 1.0 2.3 3.3

7.4 7.3 -51.7 -49.9 -30.0 -26.0 0.9 1.1 2.4 3.0

7.5 7.4 -52.0 -50.0 -30.0 -25.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.3

7.4 7.4 -50.0 -42.0 na na 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.3

7.5 7.6 -57.6 -85.2 na na 0.8 0.4 2.0 2.0

7.5 7.4 -51.1 -56.3 -35.0 -25.0 1.0 1.0 2.3 2.7

7.5 7.3 -53.0 -49.0 -33.0 -25.0 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.4

7.4 7.2 -46.8 -34.0 na na na na na na

7.4 7.1 -46.4 -24.1 -31.0 -26.0 na na na na

7.4 7.1 -51.3 -46.5 -30.0 -20.0 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.9

7.5 7.2 -49.4 -29.4 na na 1.2 1.6 2.6 2.9

7.5 7.2 -50.6 -47.8 na na 0.9 1.0 2.3 2.7

7.4 7.2 -45.7 -46.2 na na 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.5

7.5 7.3 -51.6 -40.0 -32.0 -20.5 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.8

7.5 7.5 -52.4 -50.6 na na 0.9 1.0 2.2 2.7

7.4 6.8 -50.0 -40.0 -34.0 -21.0 0.9 1.6 2.8 3.0

7.4 7.3 -50.5 -44.5 -31.5 -23.0 0.9 1.1 2.3 2.7

7.4 7.2 -50.3 -46.6 -31.3 -21.3

7.5 7.2 -49.5 -45.3 -30.9 -20.2

7.5 7.6 -45.7 -24.1 -28.8 -18.4 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.3

7.4 6.8 -57.6 -85.2 -35.0 -26.0 0.3 0.4 1.9 2.0

0.0 0.2 2.7 13.5 2.1 3.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3

7.6 7.7

7.4 7.3

-3-2-10123456

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

2011 2012 2011 2012


United States 50.4China 11.0Mexico 5.5Asia (ex. Japan) 13.9Latin America 9.3Africa 2.4



CurrentAccount(C$ bn)

FederalGovt Budget

Balance(C$ bn)

3 monthTreasury

Bill Rate (%)

10 YearGovernment

BondYield (%)

Taux deChômage

(%)

BalanceCourante(C$ md)

Rendement sur les Bons du Trésor de

3 mois %

Rendementdes Obligat-ions d'État

de 10 ans %

BalanceBudgétaire

(C$ md)

CANADA

%

Unemploy -ment

Rate (%)

Annual Total Fiscal Years(Apr-Mar) 0.8% 2.0%


United States 74.9United Kingdom 4.1China 3.3Asia (ex. Japan) 5.2Latin America 3.1Middle East 1.0

<Forecast>

Taux deChômage

(%)


%

YearAverage

FY FY11-12 12-13


%


2012 Real GDPGrowth

Forecasts (%)

Canada Overnight Lending Rate – Dec. 12, 2011 = 1.00%

1.00% 0.96% 0.94% 1.01%

1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%





Stability Amid StressThe release of September GDP by industry coincided with theQ3 national accounts. Monthly GDP was relatively solid,rising by 0.2% (m-o-m), though this was down from 0.4%recorded in August. Manufacturing, utilities and retail allcontributed to the advance. Meanwhile, the Q3 release wasmore upbeat, showing the economy recovering by 0.9% q-o-q (the same rate of growth as in Q1) after a 0.1% decline in theprevious quarter. This helped to bring the y-o-y rate up from2.1% in Q2 to 2.4%. Activity was supported by a 3.4% (q-o-q) surge in exports which helped to lift industry. The energysector also pushed up overall gains from the goods-producingsectors, soaring by 2.6% over the previous quarter. Domesticdemand, however, contributed a little less to Q3 GDP than inquarters past, due to personal expenditure moderating in q-o-q terms and investment showing an outright decline of 2.9%,following a 7.3% jump in Q2. Forecasts for both variables in2012 have consequently faltered. The outlook for domesticdemand has not been helped by the Bank of Canada’s mostrecent warnings about the economy. The upheaval in globalfinancial conditions is placing some stress on Canadianhouseholds that have allowed debt levels to climb on the backof a relatively upbeat growth/low interest rate environment.The bank warned that consumer indebtedness was concern-ing while jobs and housing markets were on the wane.

Falling global demand will hurt Canada’s export sector nextyear, although our GDP expectations have remained stablethis month while the 2011 consensus for production has evenimproved. However, the Bank of Canada indicated that theeconomy is unlikely to recover fully until well into 2013.



18

DECEMBER 2011


1.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.4 1.7 na na 2.6 1.6 na na na na 9.9 9.71.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.7 4.0 1.2 2.7 1.8 na na na na 10.1 10.21.6 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.4 2.3 1.6 na na 2.7 1.9 na na na na 10.0 10.01.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 2.4 2.0 4.0 1.9 2.7 2.0 5.9 2.4 2.4 1.9 10.1 10.61.6 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 -0.5 4.3 -1.0 2.7 1.5 5.9 3.0 1.5 2.5 10.1 10.91.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.9 2.6 3.7 1.6 2.6 1.3 na na 2.7 2.6 10.1 10.41.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.4 1.3 4.1 0.9 2.7 1.9 na na na na 10.1 10.21.6 -0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 2.1 -2.0 4.0 -0.3 2.6 1.9 5.8 2.3 2.9 2.3 10.1 10.51.6 -0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.7 2.0 -2.7 4.1 -0.8 2.7 1.9 5.5 0.4 na na 10.1 10.51.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.4 na na 2.7 2.2 na na na na 10.1 10.71.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.1 na na 2.7 1.9 na na na na 10.1 10.51.6 -0.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 -0.3 2.7 0.6 na na 2.7 1.7 5.8 2.8 na na 9.8 9.91.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 2.2 0.7 na na 2.7 2.0 5.9 1.9 2.1 1.7 10.1 10.41.6 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.3 4.4 -0.5 2.7 1.8 5.8 2.5 2.8 2.0 10.1 10.71.6 0.0 0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 2.2 -0.6 2.8 -0.4 2.7 1.7 5.6 2.0 na na 10.1 10.81.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 -1.3 3.6 -3.6 2.7 1.9 na na na na 10.1 10.91.5 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.4 2.2 -0.7 3.7 -2.5 2.7 1.9 na na na na 10.1 10.81.5 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.1 -0.2 4.1 0.9 2.7 1.8 6.0 2.8 2.2 0.2 10.1 10.71.5 -1.2 0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.8 2.2 -2.3 3.9 -2.7 2.7 2.0 na na na na 10.5 10.51.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.0 1.8 -3.8 3.8 -1.9 2.8 1.9 na na na na 10.0 10.01.5 -1.3 0.6 -1.0 0.2 -1.0 2.0 1.0 na na 2.5 1.7 6.0 -1.0 na na 10.1 10.71.5 -0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 2.3 -0.5 4.0 -1.7 2.7 1.6 6.0 1.2 2.3 1.9 10.0 10.61.5 -1.0 0.2 -1.3 0.1 -0.4 2.0 -2.9 na na 2.7 1.6 na na na na 10.0 10.8

1.6 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.2 2.2 -0.2 3.9 -0.6 2.7 1.8 5.8 1.8 2.4 1.9 10.1 10.5

1.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.1 2.5 0.9 4.1 0.9 2.7 1.8 5.8 2.3 2.5 2.2 10.0 10.21.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.8 2.2 4.1 2.4 2.6 1.8 5.8 2.5 2.0 1.9 10.0 9.91.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 2.9 2.6 4.4 1.9 2.8 2.2 6.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 10.5 10.91.5 -1.3 0.2 -1.3 0.0 -1.0 1.8 -3.8 2.8 -3.6 2.5 1.3 5.5 -1.0 1.5 0.2 9.8 9.70.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.4 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.3

1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 2.0 0.5 2.6 1.7 10.0 10.11.6 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 -0.1 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.71.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 -0.1 2.6 1.8 2.5 1.5 9.9 9.91.6 0.2

* % change on previous year 2007 2008 2009 2010

Gross Domestic Product* 3.0 0.3 -4.2 1.8

Private Consumption* 1.7 0.3 -1.1 0.9

Government Consumption* 2.2 2.3 2.5 0.4

Gross Fixed Capital Formation* 4.7 -1.3 -12.0 -0.9

Industrial Production* 3.9 -1.6 -14.8 7.4

Consumer Prices* 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.6

Industrial Producer Prices* 2.7 6.1 -5.1 2.9

Hourly Labour Costs – Total* 2.7 3.5 2.7 1.6

Unemployment Rate, (%) 7.6 7.7 9.6 10.1

Exports - Goods & Services* 6.7 0.8 -12.8 10.9

Imports - Goods & Services* 6.2 0.7 -11.6 9.1

Current Account, Euro bn 7.4 -144 -25.9 -42.2


(Maastricht definition), Euro bn -62.0 -197 -571 -573

Money Supply, M3, end period* 11.6 7.6 -0.4 1.7

Historical Data

EURO ZONE

YearAverage


European Monetary Union

Euro zone - The seventeen European countries (listed at the top of thispage) are united by a common currency (the euro), monetary policy andadherence to the Maastricht Treaty. Monetary Policy - is set by theEuropean Central Bank’s (ECB) governing board, headed by MarioDraghi. Nominal GDP - Euro 9,179bn (2010). Population - 328.6mn(mid-year, 2010). $/Euro Exchange Rate - 1.326 (average, 2010).

PrivateConsump-

tion

GovtCon-

sumption

GrossFixed

Invest-ment

IndustrialProduct-

ion

ConsumerPrices(HICP)

IndustrialProducer

Prices

HourlyLabourCosts– Total

Unemploy-ment

Rate (%)


The EURO ZONE is: Austria,Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Fin-land, France, Germany, Greece,Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,Malta, Netherlands, Portugal,Spain, Slovakia and Slovenia.


2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012



PrivateConsumption

ConsumerPrices



2.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0

1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8

2.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.7

BBVAETLAGrupo SantanderAllianzCommerzbankEuropean F'cast NetworkHSBCIHS Global InsightJP MorganNatixisSociete GeneraleUBS UniCreditWestLBOxford EconomicsBank of America - MerrillBNP-ParibasBank Julius BaerCitigroupCredit SuisseEcon Intelligence UnitGoldman SachsNomura

Consensus (Mean)


Comparison ForecastsEur Commission (Nov. '11)ECB - midpoint (Sep. '11)IMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

DECEMBER 2011


-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

6.1 2.5 4.7 2.1 na na na na na na6.9 3.5 4.5 3.0 na na na na na na6.4 4.2 4.7 3.3 -62.7 -10.2 -400 -364 na na6.4 2.4 4.8 2.1 -50.5 -48.0 -380 -290 2.6 3.46.2 0.9 4.7 2.1 -40.0 -20.0 -440 -380 3.9 4.56.9 5.3 5.5 5.3 na na na na na na5.7 1.3 4.1 1.3 -68.7 6.5 na na na na6.1 -1.0 4.4 -1.2 -50.0 -38.0 -390 -321 3.0 3.36.5 2.1 4.7 1.1 -52.8 -52.7 -445 -350 na na6.8 3.4 5.2 3.2 -60.0 -50.0 -385 -325 3.0 3.36.6 3.7 4.9 3.6 -50.7 -70.4 -400 -239 na na5.8 2.5 5.2 2.8 -75.9 -44.0 -387 -218 0.5 -0.76.3 3.0 4.6 1.9 na na na na na na6.5 3.7 4.8 3.4 -72.0 -92.0 -384 -274 2.4 1.76.5 3.1 4.6 1.9 -70.4 -18.0 -391 -297 na nana na na na -37.7 -68.8 na na na na5.1 0.6 4.5 -0.1 -74.7 -60.0 -399 -297 na na6.4 0.6 4.5 -0.6 na na na na na na5.2 -1.1 4.8 0.0 -63.9 -86.9 -426 -393 na na5.1 1.1 4.2 -0.2 -9.5 na -377 -312 na na5.0 1.0 4.0 0.5 na na -384 -333 na na5.3 0.4 5.0 1.8 -53.0 -116.6 -444 -380 3.7 0.55.9 -3.6 3.9 -6.4 na na na na na na

6.1 1.8 4.6 1.4 -55.8 -51.3 -402 -318 2.7 2.3

5.8 2.9 4.9 2.5 -56.4 -38.5 -398 -323 3.0 3.16.3 3.8 5.2 3.6 -51.7 -33.5 -413 -344 2.4 3.06.9 5.3 5.5 5.3 -9.5 6.5 -377 -218 3.9 4.55.0 -3.6 3.9 -6.4 -75.9 -116.6 -445 -393 0.5 -0.70.6 2.0 0.4 2.4 17.0 33.1 24 51 1.1 1.9

6.1 3.4 4.8 3.0 -60.1 -44.37.0 6.0 6.0 5.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

EURO ZONE

Consumer and Industrial ConfidenceDiffusion Indices for the EA 17Source: European Commission


2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

% balance ofresponses

%

CurrentAccount(€ bn)

GeneralGovt Budget

Balance(Maastricht)

(€ bn)

MoneySupply, M3,end period

<Forecast>

Exports ofGoods &Services

Imports ofGoods &Services

Average % Change onPrevious Calendar Year

Euro Zone Economic StatisticsThe source of all Historical Data (facing page) is Eurostat, withthe exception of the Current Account and the Money Supply, M3,which are from the European Central Bank. The base years andstatistics methodologies used by Eurostat may differ from thoseused by individual Euro zone-member countries included inConsensus Forecasts. Eurostat data is often drawn from thenational statistical agencies within the Euro zone but is adjustedto achieve standard classifications.

Consumer

Industrial

Euro Zone Interest RatesForecasts are provided by a total of more than 80 panel-lists for Germany (page 9), France (page 11), Italy (page15), the Netherlands (page 20) and Spain (page 22). Thisallows the analysis of forecasts for different yields onindividual country 10-year benchmark bonds. Forecastsfor 3-month interest rates are all for the EURIBOR rate.

Annual TotalAverage %Change onPrev. Year

Actual ---- Consensus -----Dec. 12 '11 End Mar. '12 End Dec. '12

Euribor, 3-mth, % 1.4 1.1 1.0German 10-yr Govt Bond, % 2.0 2.1 2.5

Euro Exchange RatesConsensus forecasts from a survey of approximately 100panellists are shown on page 27.

Euro zone Refinancing Rate – December 12, 2011 = 1.00%

1.00% 0.82% 0.76% 0.74%

1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.50%





Euro Unity and Single Currency at RiskAs the debt crisis worsens, some observers are questioningthe future of the euro itself. Deteriorating economic and fiscalfundamentals have exacerbated the view that the Euro zone’s“one currency fits all” is unsustainable. Attempts at an EU-wide response have set the stage for internal division andwidespread austerity cuts to come. The region is alreadydiving headlong into recession, lumbered with debt burdenswhich are impossible to tackle in light of tumbling tax receiptsand bond yields soaring above the 7% “danger zone” for somecountries. Unlike Argentina in 2001, for example, the region isunable to devalue its way out of recession. After growing by0.2% (q-o-q) in Q3, GDP is likely to contract this quarter andgoing into 2012 (page 28).

20

DECEMBER 2011


UBS

ABN AMRO

Moody's Analytics

NIBC

Rabobank Nederland

Theodoor Gilissen

ING

Nomura


Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago

High

Low

Standard Deviation


CPB (Dec. '11)


IMF (Sep. '11)

OECD (Nov. '11)

1.6 0.0 -0.4 0.7 7.5 0.1 na na 2.3 1.3 na na 37.0 32.0 -23.6 -17.0 0.5 0.5 2.7 3.0

1.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 6.1 -0.5 3.0 -0.8 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 47.0 36.0 -25.4 -20.6 0.7 0.7 2.3 2.5

1.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.2 5.6 -2.7 3.0 1.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.8 47.7 55.6 na na 2.2 2.1 3.1 2.9

1.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 6.2 1.5 3.0 -1.1 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.5 42.0 42.0 -25.0 -20.0 1.4 1.3 2.6 2.9

1.5 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 6.3 2.8 na na 2.3 2.0 1.5 2.0 42.7 46.5 -25.4 -19.8 1.2 1.2 2.4 3.1

1.5 0.4 -0.7 0.0 5.3 -0.3 2.9 -1.4 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 na na -25.0 -18.0 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.6

1.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 6.4 0.8 3.0 -1.0 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.6 na na na na 0.9 0.9 2.5 2.6

1.4 -0.7 -0.9 -2.1 5.7 -4.7 na na 2.5 1.6 na na na na na na 1.0 1.0 na na

1.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 5.4 1.0 na na 2.4 2.0 na na na na na na na na na na

1.5 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 6.1 -0.2 3.0 -0.6 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.9 43.3 42.4 -24.9 -19.1 1.2 1.1 2.5 2.8

1.7 0.5 -0.4 0.2 6.7 1.3 2.4 -0.1 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.9 42.7 42.1 -23.1 -19.1

1.7 1.1 0.1 0.7 6.9 2.5 3.4 1.0 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.9 44.6 45.8 -21.9 -15.7

1.6 0.5 -0.4 0.7 7.5 2.8 3.0 1.1 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.8 47.7 55.6 -23.6 -17.0 2.2 2.1 3.1 3.1

1.4 -0.7 -0.9 -2.1 5.3 -4.7 2.9 -1.4 2.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 37.0 32.0 -25.4 -20.6 0.5 0.5 2.1 2.5

0.1 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 4.3 9.2 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2

1.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 5.2 -3.6 2.3 2.1 41.0 43.3 -28.0 -25.0 1.4 1.2 2.9 2.7

1.8 0.5 -0.7 -0.4 6.1 -0.3 33.4 43.3

1.6 1.3 2.5 2.0 -23.4 -17.5

1.4 0.3 -0.7 -0.5 6.1 0.5 2.5 2.2

-4-3-2-1012345

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

* % change on previous yearGross Domestic Product*Private Consumption*Gross Fixed Investment*Manufacturing Production*Consumer Prices*Hourly Wages (manufacturing)*Current Account, transactions basis, Euro bn

General Govt. Budget Balance (Maastricht definition), Euro bn3 mth Euro, % (end yr)10 Yr Dutch Govt Bond Yield, % (end yr)

Nominal GDP - Euro591.5bn (2010). Popn - 16.7mn (mid-year,2010). $/Euro Exch. Rate - 1.326 (average, 2010).


Manufac-turing

Produc-tion



Historical Data

10 YearDutch

Govt BondYield (%)

3 monthEuro

Rate (%)

PrivateCon-

sumption

GrossFixed

Investment

Con-sumerPrices

HourlyWages(Manu-

facturing)

Rates on Survey Date1.4% 2.4%

Real Growth and Inflation(% change over previous year)%

NETHERLANDS


ConsumerPrices

Annual Total

Real GDP

<Forecast>


2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012


ConsumerPrices

2.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.5

2.0 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8

GeneralGovt Bud

Bal(Maastricht)

(€ bn)

2011 2012 2011 2012

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 03 .9 1 .8 -3 .5 1 .61 .8 1 .3 -2 .6 0 .45 .5 4 .5 -1 0 .2 -4 .43 .3 -0 .8 -8 .9 6 .41 .6 2 .5 1 .2 1 .31 .7 3 .7 2 .8 1 .2

3 8 .4 2 5 .5 2 4 .3 3 8 .6

1 .0 3 .1 -3 1 .8 -3 0 .04 .7 2 .8 0 .7 1 .0

4 .4 3 .6 3 .6 3 .2

2011 2012 2011 201220112012 End EndMar’12 Dec’12




GDP is expected to be negative in Q4 which, followingthe 0.3% (q-o-q) decline in Q3, would indicate that theeconomy is already in recession. Activity has beenparticularly affected by the drop in demand from the restof the Euro zone – the Netherlands are reliant on exports.Meanwhile, unemployment is still low in comparison toother European economies, but it is likely to climb during2012.

Elsewhere, Standard and Poor’s lowered the Nether-lands debt rating to “negative,” threatening its currentAAA status. Our panel expects GDP of -0.1% in 2012.

DECEMBER 2011


* % change on previous yearGDP (Mainland)*Private Consumption*Gross Fixed Investment*Manufacturing Production*Consumer Prices*Wages & Salaries per Full-Time Employee (Total)*Current Account, Nkr bnGeneral Govt. Bud Bal, Nkr bn3 mth Interbank Rate, % (end year)10 Yr Govt Bond Yield, % (end year)

Nominal GDP (total) - Nkr 2,496bn (2010). Population - 4.9mn (mid-yr, 2010). Nkr/$ Exchange Rate - 6.044 (average, 2010).

First Securities

Citigroup

Bank of America - Merrill

DnB NOR

Statistics Norway

Nordea Markets

UBS

JP Morgan

Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago

High

Low

Standard Deviation


Bank of Norway (Nov. '11)

OECD (Nov. '11)

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

NORWAY

Historical Data


3 month InterbankRate (%)

Rates on Survey Date3.1% 2.4%



<Forecast>

Real Mainland GDP

ConsumerPrices


Gross Domestic Product(Mainland)

ConsumerPrices

1.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.7

1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.7

CurrentAccount(Nkr bn)

Manufac-turing

Produc-tion


PrivateCon-

sumption

GrossFixed

Invest-ment

Con-sumerPrices

Annual Total

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

GeneralGovt

BudgetBalance(Nkr bn)

2011 2012 2011 20122011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

GrossDomesticProduct(Main-land)

Wages &Salaries

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 06 .8 1 .4 - 1 .6 1 .85 .4 1 .7 0 .0 3 .6

1 1 .5 0 .1 - 7 .4 - 5 .25 .9 2 .9 - 6 .4 2 .80 .7 3 .8 2 .2 2 .4

5 .5 6 .0 3 .6 3 .93 2 1 4 4 9 2 7 5 3 1 03 9 7 4 8 0 2 5 0 2 6 6

5 .9 3 .9 2 .2 2 .6

4 .7 3 .9 4 .2 3 .7





The government cut its forecast for 2012 growth to 2.5%from a previous estimate of 3.1%, although growthremains elevated compared with Euro zone countries.Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI showed a contractionfor the first time since March 2010, registering a dip to48.6 in November.

The low base rate helped house prices to rise by 8.3% (y-o-y) in Q3 while domestic demand is close to overheating.The Norges Bank is reluctant to raise interest rates,though, in order to protect exporters from the effects of astrong krone.

2.7 2.6 2.3 2.5 7.4 6.6 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.3 4.1 4.2 436 380 369 327 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.3

2.7 2.9 2.7 3.2 7.6 5.1 na na 1.4 1.8 na na na na na na 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.4

2.6 2.4 2.3 2.5 7.2 2.6 1.2 3.0 1.3 1.2 na na 309 289 na na na na na na

2.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 6.8 6.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 4.3 4.0 425 400 360 320 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.4

2.6 2.5 2.3 3.4 7.4 5.3 na na 1.3 1.4 4.2 3.4 426 403 na na 2.8 2.8 na na

2.5 2.1 2.2 2.0 7.8 5.3 na na 1.3 1.1 4.0 3.5 na na na na 2.7 2.3 3.4 4.1

2.4 1.6 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.8 na na 1.4 2.1 na na 332 362 250 250 2.6 2.6 4.1 4.3

1.5 1.5 2.5 1.1 7.3 2.9 0.8 2.0 1.4 1.1 na na 392 434 290 310 na na na na

2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.8 4.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 4.2 3.8 387 378 317 302 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.5

2.4 2.6 2.7 3.1 6.6 5.5 1.0 2.3 1.5 1.6 4.2 4.2 371 371 336 336

2.7 3.0 2.8 3.4 7.8 6.2 1.1 2.9 1.6 1.8 4.1 4.1 360 366 347 378

2.7 2.9 2.8 3.4 7.8 6.6 1.2 3.0 1.4 2.1 4.3 4.2 436 434 369 327 3.0 3.2 4.1 4.3

1.5 1.5 2.2 1.1 3.0 2.6 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.1 4.0 3.4 309 289 250 250 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.4

0.4 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 54 50 57 35 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8

2.8 3.8 2.8 4.5 1.5 1.5 4.3 4.3

1.5 2.0 2.8 2.7 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.9

22

DECEMBER 2011


0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 -4.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.4 3.2 1.9 na na -42.6 -38.3 -72.8 -57.4 na na na na

0.8 1.0 0.0 0.3 -4.3 -0.2 na na 3.1 1.2 na na -49.5 -33.5 -71.3 -49.4 1.3 1.5 4.8 4.5

0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -4.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 3.2 1.4 2.3 0.9 -43.3 -38.6 -78.7 -54.7 1.0 1.2 5.1 5.1

0.7 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 -3.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 3.0 1.5 na na na na na na na na na na0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -4.8 -3.6 na na 3.1 1.6 na na -38.1 -39.1 -76.1 -53.6 1.3 1.2 6.3 5.5

0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -4.3 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 3.2 1.4 na na -42.1 -32.8 -68.8 -61.0 0.7 0.7 5.5 5.0

0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -4.6 -3.7 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.4 0.8 1.1 -32.9 -27.8 -74.8 -53.3 1.5 1.1 6.7 5.9

0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 -4.8 -5.2 -0.8 -1.6 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.6 -43.6 -28.8 -68.8 -50.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 4.5

0.7 0.8 0.3 0.9 -4.4 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 3.3 2.1 0.7 1.9 -42.4 -37.5 -76.6 -68.9 1.6 1.8 4.9 4.2

0.7 -1.9 -0.1 -1.3 -4.8 -7.9 na na 3.1 1.2 na na -41.4 -33.1 -86.2 -79.3 1.3 0.5 6.4 4.4

0.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -4.9 -5.8 -1.5 -3.5 3.2 1.7 -0.7 0.0 -42.8 -25.4 -80.6 -48.1 1.3 1.4 5.1 4.9

0.6 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 -1.9 3.2 1.8 na na -42.9 -39.5 -70.8 -59.7 na na na na

0.6 -1.5 -0.1 -2.2 -4.4 -1.5 -0.8 -4.5 3.0 1.4 na na -40.9 -32.9 na na 1.2 1.2 na na

0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 -3.2 0.9 -0.8 0.3 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 -42.0 -38.6 -75.4 -57.0 1.2 1.3 5.3 4.8

0.6 -1.5 0.1 -0.6 -4.9 -5.2 -2.1 -2.2 3.2 1.3 na na -38.6 -33.1 -72.0 -48.2 0.5 0.5 na na

0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 -5.3 -0.2 -2.2 -1.5 3.0 1.5 na na -44.6 -40.5 na na 1.3 1.3 4.9 5.0

0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -4.4 -2.4 -0.9 -0.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.7 -41.8 -34.6 -74.8 -57.0 1.1 1.1 5.5 4.9

0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 -5.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 3.1 1.6 0.8 1.2 -41.8 -36.7 -74.3 -58.1

0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 -4.8 -0.3 0.6 1.1 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.1 -40.5 -33.4 -70.4 -56.1

0.8 1.0 0.4 0.9 -3.0 1.0 0.6 1.8 3.3 2.4 2.3 1.9 -32.9 -25.4 -68.8 -48.1 1.6 1.8 6.7 5.9

0.6 -1.9 -0.1 -2.2 -5.3 -7.9 -2.2 -4.5 3.0 1.2 -0.7 0.0 -49.5 -40.5 -86.2 -79.3 0.5 0.5 4.8 4.2

0.1 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.6 2.6 0.8 1.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 3.6 4.7 5.0 8.9 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 -5.4 -0.3 -36.7 -33.3

0.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 -5.1 -0.9 2.9 1.5 -66.8 -57.6

0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -4.8 -4.0 3.0 1.4

IFL-Univers Carlos IIIBBVALa CaixaEcon Intelligence UnitAFIBanestoBankiaCEOECEPREDECitigroupFUNCASIHS Global InsightGoldman SachsInst L R Klein (Gauss)UBSHSBC

Consensus (Mean)


Comparison ForecastsEur Commission (Nov. '11)IMF (Sep. '11)OECD (Nov. '11)

-4-3-2-10123456

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Real GDP

* % change on previous yearGross Domestic Product*Household Consumption*Gross Fixed Investment*Industrial Production*Consumer Prices*Salary Cost per Hour*Current Account, Euro bn

General Govt. Budget Balance(Maastricht definition), Euro bn3 mth Euro, % (end yr)10 Yr Spanish Govt Bond Yield, % (end yr)

Nominal GDP - Euro1,063bn (2010). Popn - 45.3mn (mid-year,2010). $/Euro Exch. Rate - 1.326 (average, 2010).

SPAIN

10 YearSpanish

Govt BondYield (%)

3 monthEuro

Rate (%)

5.8%1.4%



Historical Data


ConsumerPrices

<Forecast>

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

3 . 5 0 . 9 -3 . 7 -0 . 1

3 . 5 -0 . 6 -4 . 4 0 . 7

4 . 5 -4 . 7 -1 6 . 6 -6 . 3

2 . 4 -7 . 1 -1 6 . 2 0 . 9

2 . 8 4 . 1 -0 . 3 1 . 8

4 . 7 4 . 1 4 . 6 0 . 4

-1 0 5 -1 0 6 -5 4 . 5 -4 8 . 4

2 0 . 3 -4 8 . 9 -1 1 7 -9 8 . 2

4 . 7 2 . 8 0 . 7 1 . 0

4 . 4 3 . 8 4 . 0 5 . 5



ConsumerPrices

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.6

3.5 3.5 3.1 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5

SalaryCost per

Hour

House-hold

Consump-tion

IndustrialProduc-

tion




GrossFixed

Invest-ment

Con-sumerPrices

Annual Total

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

GeneralGovt Bud

Bal(Maastricht)

(€ bn)

2011 2012 2011 201220112012 2011 2012 2011 2012 End EndMar’12 Dec’12




November elections produced a clear winner in the Peo-ple’s Party which promised greater austerity in a bid to winback market confidence. Overall debt in the economyreached a staggering 363% of GDP in mid-2011, higherthan that of Italy. This is reflected in government bondyields which breached 7% at one point in the past month.

The overall growth outlook is poor with industrial produc-tion falling by 4% (y-o-y) in October while the PMI forservices (of 36.8) in November showed a strong contrac-tion in the sector. Our panel’s GDP forecast for 2012 hascollapsed by 0.7 percentage points this month to -0.2%.

DECEMBER 2011


Bank of America Merrill

JP Morgan

Goldman Sachs

Svenska Handelsbanken

Citigroup

Confed of Swed Enterprise

Erik Penser Bank

National Institute - NIER

SE Banken

Morgan Stanley

Nordea

SBAB Bank

UBS


Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago

High

Low

Standard Deviation


Riksbank (Jul. '11)


IMF (Sep. '11)

OECD (Nov. '11)

4.7 2.2 1.5 1.0 6.5 4.1 na na na na na na 256 224 na na na na na na

4.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 6.5 3.6 na na 2.7 1.3 na na 251 266 18.0 38.0 na na na na

4.6 1.6 1.4 0.2 6.4 3.0 9.8 2.7 2.6 2.0 na na na na na na na na na na

4.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 6.3 2.1 8.7 -0.8 2.9 1.1 2.7 3.0 225 245 5.0 -3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0

4.3 2.1 2.5 1.9 9.0 6.1 na na 3.0 2.0 na na na na na na 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.9

4.3 0.2 1.7 1.5 6.0 2.0 10.0 -2.0 2.9 1.3 na na 270 225 na na 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.3

4.3 1.4 1.8 2.2 5.5 4.0 na na 2.9 1.3 2.7 3.0 223 230 10.0 10.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.2

4.3 1.9 2.0 2.6 8.0 6.6 10.2 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.6 3.1 200 220 -3.2 12.1 na na 2.7 3.2

4.3 1.1 2.0 1.0 10.0 0.0 na na 3.0 1.1 2.5 3.5 na na na na 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.1

4.2 1.1 2.3 1.2 8.7 2.1 na na 2.9 1.7 na na 217 240 33.8 13.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 2.0

4.2 0.8 1.7 1.0 7.1 1.3 na na 3.0 1.8 3.6 3.9 195 234 4.0 16.0 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.3

4.1 1.0 1.7 1.2 -0.6 1.7 8.5 2.0 2.9 1.0 2.5 2.8 210 230 5.0 5.0 2.1 1.6 2.2 3.5

4.0 1.2 2.5 1.7 9.3 5.8 na na 2.8 1.9 na na 264 316 na na 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7

3.3 0.3 2.0 0.3 8.2 1.5 10.0 0.0 2.7 1.7 na na na na na na na na na na

4.3 1.2 1.9 1.3 6.9 3.1 9.5 0.8 2.9 1.5 2.8 3.2 231 243 10.4 13.0 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.5

4.1 1.3 2.2 1.6 7.9 3.7 9.5 2.0 2.9 1.8 2.8 3.3 221 236 5.2 13.3

4.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 8.0 5.1 10.3 3.9 3.0 2.1 2.6 3.2 216 229 7.2 18.5

4.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 10.0 6.6 10.2 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.6 3.9 270 316 33.8 38.0 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.5

3.3 0.2 1.4 0.2 -0.6 0.0 8.5 -2.0 2.6 1.0 2.5 2.8 195 220 -3.2 -3.0 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.9

0.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 0.7 2.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 27 29 12.2 12.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

4.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 8.7 6.7 3.1 2.7

4.0 1.4 2.6 1.2 8.5 2.3

4.4 3.8 3.0 2.5 30.1 47.9

4.1 1.3 2.2 0.9 9.1 3.7 2.9 1.1

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

* % change on previous yearGross Domestic Product*Household Consumption*Gross Fixed Investment*Min. & Manufacturing Prodn*Consumer Prices*Average Hourly Earnings (Mining & Manufacturing)*Current Account, Skr bnGeneral Govt. Bud Bal, Skr bn3 mth Interbank Rate, % (end yr)10 Yr Govt Bond Yield, % (end yr)

Nominal GDP - Skr 3,301bn (2010). Population - 9.3mn (mid-year, 2010). Skr/$ Exchange Rate - 7.208 (average, 2010).

Historical Data

2.7%10 YearGovtBond

Yield (%)


%

SWEDEN



<Forecast>

RealGDP

ConsumerPrices

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 03 .4 - 0 .8 - 5 .1 5 .33 .8 - 0 .1 - 0 .3 3 .69 .0 0 .4 - 1 5 .2 5 .64 .0 - 2 .9 - 1 7 .8 8 .72 .2 3 .5 - 0 .3 1 .3

3 .9 4 .2 2 .0 3 .22 8 9 2 8 1 2 1 9 2 3 2

n 1 1 3 7 1 .5 - 2 0 .2 7 .6

4 .7 2 .4 0 .5 2 .0

4 .4 2 .4 3 .4 3 .3

1.6%



ConsumerPrices

5.8 4.8 4.6 2.5 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.8 2.0

2.3 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7

3 monthInterbankRate (%)

Mining &Manu-

facturingProduc-

tion

HourlyEarnings(Mining &Manuf.)

House-holdCon-

sumption



GrossFixed

Invest-ment

Con-sumerPrices

Annual Total

2011 2012

GeneralGovt

BudgetBalance(Skr bn)

2011 2012 2011 20122011 2012 20112012

CurrentAccount(Skr bn)


2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 End EndMar’12 Dec’12



GDP grew by a strong 4.6% (y-o-y) in Q3, outpacing muchof the EU. Growth was supported by exports which soaredby 8.2% (y-o-y) while imports only rose 3.8%, therebyincreasing the trade surplus. The economy is currentlybenefiting from the decision to remain outside the Eurozone. Industry is showing signs of stalling, though, withOctober new orders down by 5.0% (y-o-y) though produc-tion increased by 4.7% (y-o-y).

Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 6.9% in October,showing signs that the crisis in the Euro zone could beslowing the labour market.

24

DECEMBER 2011


1.9 -0.1 0.9 0.2 3.6 0.4 2.0 -0.3 0.4 0.1 na na na na na na na na na na

1.9 0.5 1.3 1.1 4.1 -0.1 na na 0.3 0.4 na na na na na na 0.0 0.0 na 1.4

1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 4.1 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.6 na na na na na na 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0

1.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.8 -0.6 na na 0.2 0.2 na na 65.0 69.0 4.4 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.2

1.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 3.2 1.6 na na 0.2 -0.7 na na 81.7 84.2 na na na na 0.8 0.7

1.8 0.5 na na na na na na 0.2 -0.1 na na 78.0 70.0 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2

1.8 0.4 1.1 0.6 5.5 0.6 3.9 3.0 0.2 -0.5 na na na na na na na na na na

1.8 0.4 0.9 0.8 3.0 0.3 1.8 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 195 193 70.1 67.6 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.4

1.8 0.2 0.9 0.8 2.9 -2.6 1.6 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 201 193 71.2 63.6 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.2

1.8 -0.5 0.9 0.0 3.0 -2.8 0.7 -3.5 0.3 -0.5 189 180 73.9 59.9 3.9 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.4

1.7 -0.2 0.8 0.3 2.6 -2.4 0.6 -3.5 0.2 -0.1 198 198 71.3 63.0 4.0 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.3

1.7 0.4 0.9 1.1 3.0 -1.4 na na 0.3 0.3 na na na na na na na na 1.0 1.4

1.6 -1.1 0.9 0.8 2.7 -2.6 6.2 -3.3 0.4 0.4 na na na na na na na na na na

0.7 -0.4 1.1 -0.2 2.2 -6.2 na na 0.3 -0.5 191 182 81.1 97.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 1.0 1.3 1.6

1.7 0.2 1.0 0.6 3.3 -1.1 2.3 -1.0 0.3 -0.1 195 189 74.0 71.8 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2

1.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 3.7 1.0 3.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 196 192 78.2 76.0 1.7 0.4

2.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 4.3 2.2 3.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 201 205 75.7 70.4 2.2 1.6

1.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 5.5 2.0 6.2 3.0 0.4 0.6 201 198 81.7 97.3 4.4 2.8 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.6

0.7 -1.1 0.8 -0.2 2.2 -6.2 0.6 -3.5 0.2 -0.7 189 180 65.0 59.9 0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7

0.3 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 1.9 2.4 0.1 0.4 5 8 5.8 12.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3

2.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 4.4 3.5

1.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.01.8 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.3 -0.3


Credit Suisse

HSBC

Bank Vontobel

Citigroup

Pictet & Cie

Swiss Life

BAK Basel

Zürcher Kantonalbank

Bank Julius Baer

IHS Global Insight

UBS

Goldman Sachs

Institut Crea

Consensus (Mean)

Last Month's Mean

3 Months Ago

High

Low

Standard Deviation


IMF (Sep. '11)

OECD (Nov. '11)SECO (Dec. '11)

-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

* % change on previous yearGross Domestic Product*Private Consumption*Gross Fixed Investment*Industrial Production*Consumer Prices*Merch Exports, SwFr bnCurrent Account, SwFr bnGeneral Govt. Bud. Bal. SwFr bn3 mth Euro-Franc Rate, % (end yr)10 Yr Govt Bond Yield, % (end yr)

Nominal GDP - SwFr 546.2bn (2010). Population - 7.6mn (mid-year, 2010). SwFr/$ Exchange Rate - 1.043 (average, 2010).

Historical Data

Rates on Survey Date0.8%0.2%


3 monthEuro-

Franc Rate(%)


SWITZERLAND


Real GDP

ConsumerPrices

<Forecast>



ConsumerPrices

2.4 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1

0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7

2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

3 . 6 2 . 1 -1 . 9 2 . 7

2 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 4 1 . 7

5 . 1 0 . 5 -4 . 9 7 . 5

9 . 5 1 . 4 -8 . 0 6 . 3

0 . 6 2 . 6 -0 . 5 0 . 7

1 9 8 2 0 6 1 8 1 1 9 3

4 6 . 6 1 2 . 7 6 1 . 5 8 5 . 9

1 1 . 2 5 . 6 -0 . 3 -0 . 2

2 . 8 1 . 1 0 . 3 0 . 5

3 . 1 2 . 2 2 . 0 1 . 7



GrossFixed

Invest-ment

Con-sumerPrices

Annual Total

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 20122011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

Merchan-dise

Exports(SwFr bn)

PrivateConsump-

tion

CurrentAccount

(SwFr bn)

IndustrialProduc-

tion

GeneralGovt

BudgetBalance

(SwFr bn)

2011 2012 End EndMar’12 Dec’12




GDP advanced by only 0.2% (q-o-q) in Q3, the slowestgrowth rate since Q2 2009. Growth was inhibited by a poortrade performance, with exports dropping by 1.2% due tothe current strength of the Swiss franc against the euro.Meanwhile, consumer prices fell by 0.5% (y-o-y) in Octo-ber, showing the extent of deflation in the economy.

Falling exports and deflation have increased pressure onthe Swiss National Bank to intervene further in the forexmarket in order to devalue the franc against the euro. Thestrong franc, plus the euro crisis, prompted the Swissgovernment to cut its 2012 growth forecast to 0.5%.


DECEMBER 2011

25

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bank Leumi Citigroup

Danske Bank Economist Intelligence Unit Experian

Fitch Ratings Goldman Sachs Moody’s

Nomura Oxford Economics UniCredit

Nominal GDP - US$310.8bn (2010)Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)

Manufacturing Production (% change on previous year)Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)Current Account (US Dollar bn)

Nominal GDP - US$468.0bn (2010)Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)Industrial Production (% change on previous year)

Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)Current Account (US Dollar bn)


Industrial Production (% change on previous year)Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)Current Account (US Dollar bn)


Industrial Production (% change on previous year)Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)Current Account (US Dollar bn)

Nominal GDP - US$187.3bn (2009)1

Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)1

Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)

Current Account (US Dollar bn)



ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES

AUSTRIA Population - 8.4mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

BELGIUM Population - 10.7mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

DENMARK Population - 5.5mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

EGYPT Population - 84.5mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

FINLAND Population - 5.4mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

GREECE Population - 11.2mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

1 year(s) ending June 30

Forecasts for the countries in Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa shown on the next two pages were provided by thefollowing leading economic forecasters:

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20123.7 1.4 -3.8 2.3 3.0 0.85.3 1.6 -10.3 5.7 7.1 2.22.1 3.4 0.5 1.9 3.5 2.7

13.2 20.1 10.4 11.2 12.0 13.9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122.8 0.9 -2.7 2.3 2.0 0.42.8 -0.6 -13.4 7.4 4.8 1.21.8 4.5 -0.1 2.2 3.4 2.07.5 -9.2 0.0 6.9 6.9 7.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121.6 -0.8 -5.8 1.3 1.1 1.01.0 -0.3 -17.2 2.4 2.9 -0.31.7 3.4 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.04.3 9.9 10.2 17.2 18.3 15.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7.1 7.2 4.6 5.2 1.7 2.7

9.4 18.3 11.9 11.1 10.1 9.0

0.4 -1.4 -3.3 -4.5 -4.6 -5.6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125.3 1.0 -8.2 3.6 2.8 0.74.6 0.7 -18.2 4.8 3.0 1.32.5 4.1 0.0 1.2 3.3 2.3

10.5 6.9 4.7 4.4 -0.5 0.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20124.3 1.0 -2.3 -4.4 -5.7 -3.92.3 -4.0 -9.4 -5.8 -8.4 -3.82.9 4.2 1.2 4.7 2.9 1.4

-44.8 -50.8 -35.8 -30.5 -25.0 -20.5



DECEMBER 2011

26

Nominal GDP - US$228.7bn (2010)

Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)Industrial Production (% change on previous year)Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)



Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)






Manufacturing Production (% change on previous year)Consumer Prices (% change on previous year)Current Account (US Dollar bn)



IRELAND Population - 4.6mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

ISRAEL Population - 7.3mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

NIGERIA Popn - 158.3mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

PORTUGAL Population - 10.7mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

SAUDI ARABIA Popn - 26.3mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

SOUTH AFRICA Popn - 50.5mn (2010, mid-year) Consensus Forecasts Historical Data

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125.2 -3.0 -7.0 -0.4 1.4 0.45.2 -2.4 -4.3 7.7 2.8 1.04.9 4.1 -4.5 -1.0 1.6 1.0

-13.9 -14.8 -6.5 1.0 -0.1 1.4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125.5 4.2 0.4 5.1 4.5 2.85.6 6.6 -5.9 8.0 na na0.5 4.6 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.44.9 1.8 7.0 6.3 -0.9 -2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122.4 0.0 -2.5 1.3 -2.1 -3.40.2 -4.0 -8.4 1.7 -0.7 -2.32.4 2.6 -0.8 1.3 3.5 2.2

-23.5 -31.7 -25.5 -22.9 -17.8 -13.6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2.0 4.2 0.1 4.1 6.6 3.6

4.2 9.9 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.4

93.4 132.3 21.0 66.8 138.6 84.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125.5 3.6 -1.5 2.9 3.1 2.64.7 0.6 -12.8 4.9 2.4 2.97.2 11.5 7.1 4.3 5.0 6.1

-20.0 -19.7 -11.5 -10.2 -14.6 -15.9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7.0 6.0 5.6 7.6 e 7.4 7.1

5.5 11.6 11.5 13.7 10.6 10.1

27.6 28.1 13.2 2.5 14.4 10.7


Gross Domestic Product (% change on previous year)



ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES



DECEMBER 2011

27

DECEMBER 2011 OIL PRICES

FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTS

Foreign Exchange Rates

Rates at end of:

2007 2008 2009 2010

LatestSpotRate

(Dec. 12)

Forecast End Mar.

2012

PercentChange

ForecastEnd Dec.

2012

PercentChange

PercentChange

Consensus ForecastsHistorical Data

West Texas Intermediate, US$ per barrel

1All US$ rates are amounts ofcurrency per dollar, except theUK pound and the euro which arereciprocals. A positive (+) signfor the % change implies an ap-preciation of the currency againstthe US Dollar and vice versa.

US$ per Euro1Yen per US$

ForecastEnd Dec.

2013

Rates per US Dollar

Canadian Dollar 0.998 1.225 1.048 1.033

Egyptian Pound 5.504 5.504 5.475 5.805

European Euro 1.472 1.389 1.435 1.294

Israeli Shekel 3.846 3.777 3.775 3.542

Japanese Yen 114.0 90.75 93.10 82.72

Nigerian Naira 118.0 132.6 149.6 152.0

Saudi Arabian Riyal 3.750 3.750 3.750 3.750

South African Rand 6.810 9.305 7.380 6.616

United Kingdom Pound 2.003 1.458 1.615 1.557

Rates per Euro

Danish Krone 7.471 7.340 7.476 7.452

Norwegian Krone 7.964 9.722 8.326 7.798

Swedish Krona 9.441 10.85 10.25 9.019

Swiss Franc 1.657 1.477 1.484 1.251

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

0.800

0.900

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-111.30

1.35

1.401.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

US$ per UK Pound

1

1 historical rates up to January 1, 1999, are calculatedas "synthetic" euro exchange rates based on a weightedaverage of the eleven original component currencies.

Range 1985-2011Spot Rate (Dec. 12)

DecemberSurvey

Mean Forecast

HighLowStandard DeviationNo. of Forecasts

10.4 - 145.3 97.8

Forecast forEnd Mar. End Dec.

2012 2012

1.025 1.031 -0.7 1.010 +1.5 1.016 +0.8

6.016 6.071 -0.9 6.522 -7.8 6.735 -10.7

1.322 1.310 -0.9 1.325 +0.3 1.317 -0.3

3.777 3.754 +0.6 3.661 +3.2 3.767 +0.3

77.81 76.68 +1.5 78.01 -0.3 82.24 -5.4

161.8 164.2 -1.5 168.8 -4.1 178.1 -9.2

3.751 3.750 0.0 3.750 0.0 3.750 0.0

8.252 8.287 -0.4 7.973 +3.5 8.281 -0.4

1.562 1.532 -1.9 1.576 +0.9 1.601 +2.5

7.436 7.449 -0.2 7.451 -0.2 7.453 -0.2

7.697 7.772 -1.0 7.594 +1.4 7.650 +0.6

9.054 9.183 -1.4 8.942 +1.3 8.881 +1.9

1.235 1.235 0.0 1.251 -1.3 1.298 -4.9

95.7 97.5

119.0 122.583.0 72.0

7.1 11.065 65

Global Weakness Hits the Oil MarketsWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent have seen anothermonth of volatility on the back of recurrent concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis and its impact on global economic and financialfundamentals. The US has exhibited resilience recently, though:crude oil stocks in mid-November fell to their lowest level sinceJanuary 2010. Normally, this would spur prices for WTI, the USbenchmark. However, in the current recessionary climate – cou-pled with Middle East upheaval (including an oil pipeline explosionin Syria) – prices have tumbled. With recent EU agreements failingto calm investors, the market has been hit by the resulting creditsqueeze. Traders are also keeping an eye on OPEC’s latestmeeting which could see a 30mn barrels-per-day cap on output.

28 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

DECEMBER 2011QUARTERLY FORECASTS

continued from page 3

Canada

Italy

Euro zone

Q tr 3 Qtr4 Q tr1 Qtr2 Qtr 3 Q tr4 Qtr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Qtr4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2Gross Domestic Product* 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.2 -0.9 -0.5 0.0% change, qtr/qtr 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3Household Consumption* 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2% change, qtr/qtr 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1Industrial Production* 7.2 5.0 2.1 1.9 -0.5 -0.8 -2.2 -4.4 -4.9 -2.9 -2.5 0.3Consumer Prices* 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.63 month Euro Rate, % 1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

France

United Kingdom

1 End period

Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr 2G ross D om estic P roduct* 1.6 1.4 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.1% change, qtr/qtr 0.4 0.3 0.9 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3H ousehold C onsum ption* 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0% change, qtr/qtr 0.7 0.4 0.3 -0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2Manufacturing Production* 3.4 3.4 6.2 3.8 4.2 1.9 -1.7 -1.1 -0.9 1.2 2.6 3.2C onsum er Prices* 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.83 m onth Euro R ate, % 1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1






Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr 2

G ross D om estic Product* 2.1 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0

% c hange, qtr/qtr 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4

Private C onsum ption* 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8

% c hange, qtr/qtr 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2

Industrial P roduction* 7.2 8.0 6.6 4.2 4.2 0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0

C onsum er P rices* 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.7

1 End period

1 End period

1 End period

2010

Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr2G ross Domestic Product* 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5% change, qtr/qtr 0.6 0.8 0.9 -0.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5Personal Expenditure* 3.2 3.2 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3% change, qtr/qtr 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7Industrial Production* 7.8 6.6 5.7 2.4 3.5 3.2 2.5 3.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0C onsumer Prices* 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.03 month Treasury B ill R ate, % 1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5

2010

2010

2010

2010

2012

2011

2011

2011

1 End period

2011

2012

2011

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr 2G ross D om estic P roduct* 2.6 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7% c hange, qtr/qtr 0.6 -0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5H ousehold C onsum ption* 1.3 0.2 -0.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4% c hange, qtr/qtr -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4M anufacturing P roduction* 4.7 4.9 4.4 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.5R etail P rices (underlying rate)* 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.0 3.5 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.6C onsum er P rices* 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.03 m onth Interbank R ate, % 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5

2013


DECEMBER 2011 QUARTERLY FORECASTS

Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Qtr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Qtr1 Q tr2G ross Domestic Product* 1.7 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.5% change, qtr/qtr 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4Private Consumption* 0.6 1.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.9 1.2% change, qtr/qtr 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3Manufacturing Production* 5.7 5.7 6.7 1.8 2.7 0.8 -2.1 -0.9 -0.3 0.8 1.4 1.4Consumer Prices* 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.83 month Euro Rate, % 1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3

Switzerland

Sweden

Spain

Norway






1 End period

1 End period

1 End period

1 End period

2010

2010

2010

2010

2010 2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

1 End period

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

Netherlands2013

2013

2013


G ross D om estic P roduct* 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1

% c hange, qtr/qtr 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.8 0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.8

P rivate C onsum ption* 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1

% c hange, qtr/qtr 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.4

Industrial P roduction* 5.4 6.2 4.6 2.4 0.0 -1.4 -3.3 -2.2 -0.5 1.2 2.9 3.7

C onsum er P rices* 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7

3 m onth E uro-Franc R ate, % 1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5

2013

Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2G ross Dom. Prod. (Mainland)* 2.5 2.1 1.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.7% change, qtr/qtr 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9Private Consumption* 3.6 3.1 1.6 3.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.7% change, qtr/qtr 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9Manufacturing Production* 4.1 2.9 2.7 0.8 -0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.2Consumer Prices* 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.73 month Interbank Rate, % 1 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9


G ross D om estic Product* 6.8 7.1 5.8 4.8 4.6 2.5 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.8 2.0

% change, qtr/qtr 1.9 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.6 -0.8 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.1 1.0

H ousehold C onsum ption* 3.4 4.5 1.8 3.2 0.9 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

% change, qtr/qtr 1.3 1.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.9 1.0 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.2 0.3 0.7

Mining & Manuf. Production* 11.4 11.9 13.5 7.4 5.7 4.3 -0.4 -1.2 0.9 2.6 3.7 4.1

C onsumer P rices* 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7

3 month Interbank R ate, % 1 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr1 Q tr2 Q tr 3 Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr 2G ross Domestic Product* 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.6% change, qtr/qtr 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.5Household Consumption* 0.8 0.8 0.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4% change, qtr/qtr -0.7 0.7 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.3Industrial Production* -0.4 0.1 3.1 -1.8 -2.4 -3.0 -2.7 -1.5 -0.1 1.6 1.6 2.0Consumer Prices* 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.53 month Euro Rate, % 1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2

2013


DECEMBER 2011NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS

❒ GDP - Gross Domestic Product IMF - International Monetary Fundna - not available Emu - European economic and monetary unionOECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ECB - European Central BankBoE - Bank of England PMI - Purchasing Managers Indexy-o-y - year-on-year q-o-q - quarter-on-quarter m-o-m - month-on-month

❒ Measures of GDP, Consumption, Business Investment and Industrial Production are expressed in real (i.e.inflation-adjusted) terms. These variables, and certain others as indicated, are expressed as percentagechanges over the previous year.

❒ All individual country forecasters on pages 4-24 are listed in descending order of their 2011 real GDPestimates. Consensus forecasts are mean arithmetic averages of the listed individual estimates.


DECEMBER 2011

This page has been left intentionally blank


DECEMBER 2011

2.3 2.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 2.0 6.9 6.9 7.83.2 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.9 2.0 -49.4 -51.1 -43.61.4 1.6 0.1 1.5 2.1 1.7 -44.7 -64.8 -57.63.7 3.0 0.5 1.1 2.3 1.7 187 185 1701.2 0.6 -1.0 1.5 2.8 2.1 -71.7 -81.7 -55.24.5 -0.6 2.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 196 137 1461.6 1.5 -0.1 1.3 2.3 1.7 51.2 60.3 55.91.8 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.4 51.3 69.1 64.7

-0.1 0.7 -0.2 1.8 3.1 1.6 -64.2 -58.3 -45.65.3 4.3 1.2 1.3 2.9 1.5 32.2 35.6 35.32.7 1.7 0.2 0.7 0.3 -0.1 82.5 83.7 76.31.8 0.9 0.7 3.3 4.5 2.7 -56.7 -30.3 -30.93.0 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.2 2.1 -471 -461 -461

3.0 1.8 2.1 1.6 3.2 2.1 -520 -512 -5051.9 1.5 0.1 1.8 2.8 1.9 154 192 2171.9 1.6 0.2 1.8 2.9 2.0 -17.9 1.0 36.71.8 1.6 -0.1 1.6 2.7 1.8 -55.9 -77.7 -67.6

7.1 4.4 5.0 2.6 3.6 2.6 597 459 4104.4 4.4 2.9 6.6 6.4 6.2 -14.4 -21.5 -41.26.3 4.2 3.7 6.6 6.8 6.4 -59.4 -67.0 -95.84.7 4.8 3.7 6.9 6.5 6.4 60.9 133.0 71.5

4.3 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.7 2.9

Real GDP

% increase

2010 2011 2012

Consumer Prices

% increase

2010 2011 2012

Current Account

Balance, US$bn

2010 2011 2012

DecemberSurvey

CONSENSUS FORECASTS: WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

BelgiumCanadaFranceGermanyItalyJapanNetherlandsNorwaySpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomUnited States

North America1

Western Europe2

European Union2

Euro zone2

Asia Pacific3

Eastern Europe4

Latin America5

Other Countries6

Total


Regional totals, as well as the grand total for GDP growth and inflation, are weighted averages calculated using 2010 GDPweights, converted at average 2010 exchange rates. Current account forecasts given in national currencies on pages 7-24 have been converted using consensus exchange rate forecasts for the purposes of comparison. 1USA and Canada. 2 TheEuro zone aggregate is taken from our panel’s latest forecasts (pages 18-19). The Euro zone current account data andforecasts are based on extra-euro zone data, i.e., they are compiled from an aggregate of the Euro zone member states’transactions only with nonresidents of the Euro zone. The European Union data includes the Euro zone countries listed onpage 18 plus Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, as well as May 2004 entrants the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, plus Romania and Bulgaria who entered in January 2007 (data taken from Eastern EuropeConsensus Forecasts). Western Europe comprises the Euro zone plus Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, alongwith Norway and Switzerland. 3 Survey results for Japan plus fifteen other countries taken from Asia Pacific ConsensusForecasts. 4 Twenty-seven countries, including eleven European Union countries taken from the latest issue of EasternEurope Consensus Forecasts. 5Eighteen countries taken from the latest issue of Latin American Consensus Forecasts(Inflation figures are on a December/December basis). 6 Egypt, Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

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