Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan : Are ... · July 2018 Japan flood + heat wave...
Transcript of Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan : Are ... · July 2018 Japan flood + heat wave...
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Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan (2018): Are they
becoming a norm?
Simon 世宇WangProfessor of climateUtah State University
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followed by heat waves
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http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~hjkim/FLOOD.H30WJ/app/
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TCC report and a 2019 paper
What do we not know?
Sampe, T., and S.-P. Xie (2010)
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(1) Quantitative attribution
2019 in review
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(1) Quantitative attribution
normalized precipand Tmax: 14-day running sum precip
(Pr14) and mean Tmax (Tx14)
Pr14 Tx14
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(1) Quantitative attribution
Compound Intensity (CI)- a dimensionless combined index defined as multiplication between the local maximum of each normalized variable within a moving time window
CI28
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• international CLIVAR C20C+ detection and attribution project
Half-a-degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project
.
CI28
CI28
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Pr14 Tx14CI28
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(2) Synoptic attribution
2019 in press
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(2) Synoptic attribution
East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM)
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The East Asian summer monsoon evolution:
• Baiu Front, • Subtropical High,• Monsoon Trough
Climatology:Upper-level:
Chen et al. (2004 JCLI)
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Active“Baiu”
Break
Revival
2018 flood
↰
↑Heat wave
↱Typhoon Jebi (Cat-5)
EASM Lifecycle for Japan:Amplified?
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Does climate warming intensify the EASM lifecycle?
Preliminary analysis by Jina Park, GIST 🇰🇷
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Preliminary analysis by Jina Park, GIST 🇰🇷
Convergence of water vapor flux
dT/dy
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Preliminary analysis by Jina Park, GIST 🇰🇷
Convergence of water vapor flux
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Preliminary analysis by Jina Park, GIST 🇰🇷
Dry
signal
Couture: 5-day mean precipitation
Shading: long-term trends
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Preliminary analysis by Jina Park, GIST 🇰🇷
Dry
signal
Precipitation Precipitable water Divergent Q
HOWABOUT TIMING?
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Peak ΔOLR
Each year’s peak daily ΔOLR(running means applied)
ye
ar
date
2014
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Each year’s peak daily ΔOLR(running means applied)
ye
ar
date
2014
Textbook Meiyu Season
Shifted Meiyu (same length)
Shortened, enhanced Meiyu
(Wang et al. 2016)
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Each year’s peak daily ΔOLR(running means applied)
ye
ar
date2018
Energized at subseasonal
timescale…
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2018
2019 : 5-day OLR by TCC
Each year’s peak daily ΔOLR
今年呢?
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(Coumou… and Wang 2018; NCOM)
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The emerging feature:
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Time-series representation of OLR (W/m2) averaged over the Philippines (shown by the rectangle on the bottom: 10°N - 20°N, 115°E - 140°E)
The OLR index is calculated after Wang and Fan (1999). The thick and thin blue lines indicate seven-day running mean and daily mean values, respectively. The black line denotes the normal (i.e., the 1981 - 2010 average), and the gray shading shows the range of the standard deviation calculated for the time period of the normal.
850hPa streamfunction7/12-7/18 mean
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Baiu phase2018
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Break phase
2018
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intensifying
strengthening
Under warmer climate
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For the 2018
events
Random weather Complex
interaction among
these two
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For the 2018
events
Sub-seasonal feature
Complex
interaction among
these two
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For the 2018
events
200hPa streamfunction6/23-7/1 mean
Observation
Week-1 forecast
Week-2 forecast
JMA
Short-wave train leading up to heavy rainfall
Sub-seasonal forecast
Reaching 2 weeks
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For the 2018
events
Sub-seasonal forecast
850hPa streamfunction7/12-7/18 mean
Observation
Week-1 forecast
Week-2 forecast
JMA
High pressure leading to heat wave
Barely one week
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Flood potential forecast?
For the 2018
events
2019
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Summary:
July 2018 Japan flood + heat wave
Forecast limit – only 3 days? Needs to improve subseasonal prediction (tropics vs. midlatitude)
Hydrologic forecast – peak flow not predicted (or not in time)
Projection – the EASM lifecycle is amplified under warming hence increasing the chance for compound extremes