Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen ... · Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor...

03/06/2011

1

Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company

Confidential & Proprietary

Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company

The structural transformation drivers in FMCG

Demographic & Cultural

transformation Centre of gravity moving to the east Retail & Shopper transformation

Casino economy Media & communication revolution Brand structure transformation

03/06/2011

2


Consumer Confidence Drives Demand

95 98 100 102 98 94 88 84 77 82 86 87 92 93 90 90 92

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1


Consumer Confidence Index

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

France Italy Spain Ger UK

Fra: 61 {-4} UK: 67 {-10}

Ita: 57 {-14} Spa: 61 {-9}

Ger: 92 {+9}

03/06/2011

3


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

France Italy Spain Ger UK

Fra: 17% 26% UK: 19% 27%

Ita: 8% 18% Spa: 6% 17%

Ger: 18% 23%

“I have no spare cash!”


Consumer are saving less

Source: Eurostat,

14.5%

13.5%

14.3%

14.8% 14.6% 14.5%

14.0%

13.6% 13.8% 13.8%

14.2% 14.4%

14.9%

15.6%

16.5%

15.8%

15.1%

14.6%

14.0%

13.6% 13.4%

03/06/2011

4


Europe overview (*)

5.7% 1.5% 1.0% 4.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.1% 2.7% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.1%

1.1%

1.7%

1.0%

3.0%

2.8%

0.5% 0.4%

0.6%

0.4%

1.7%

1.3% 1.6%

2.0%

0.1%

1.2% 1.1%

0.2%

6.8%

3.2%

2.0%

7.1%

9.0%

6.7% 6.8%

4.7%

3.1%

3.9%

2.6% 2.9%

2.5%

0.9%

2.3% 2.6%

2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2008 2009 2010 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11

Unit value change Volume change Nominal Value Growth

Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain,

Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.


Q1 2011 growth rates per country (versus Q1 2010)

0%

-3%

2% 1% 1%

-1% 1%

-1% 1%

6%

2% 1%

4% 3%

0% 2%

3% 3% 3% 1%

7%

-6% 0% -4%

-2% -2% 1%

-1% 1% 0%

-5%

-1%

1%

-1% -1%

2% 1%

0%

1% 0% 2%

6%

-5.7%

-3.0% -2.1%

-1.2% -0.6% -0.4% -0.1%

0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8%

2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%

12.4%

Unit value Volume growth Nominal Value Growth

03/06/2011

5


USA

4.7% 5.1% 0.8% 5.9% 4.7% 4.8% 1.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

-0.7%

0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9%

0.0%

-1.3%

-0.2%

-2.7%

-1.8% -2.4%

1.3%

0.7%

0.0%

1.1%

-1.2% -0.7%

-1.7% -1.4%

4.7% 3.8%

0.6%

3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7%

0.5% 0.0%

0.4%

-1.1% -0.3%

-1.3% -0.5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2007 2008 2009 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11

Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth

Fast Moving Consumer Goods Dynamics


03/06/2011

6

Are shoppers changing?

Fast, Faster, Fastest, …


85

%

85

%

84

%

84

%

84

%

82

%

82

%

81

%

80

%

80

%

79

%

78

%

78

%

77

%

77

%

76

%

76

%

75

%

75

%

74

%

74

%

74

%

71

%

70

%

70

%

70

%

70

%

69

%

69

%

67

%

62

%

57

%

57

%

56

%

56

%

Store visit Triggers “I shopped at the same

store I always do”

03/06/2011

7


Number of shopping trips per 4 weeks

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Germany Italy France UK Spain


Average spend per shopping trip

14 15 14

15 14 15 14

15

22 22 22

24

23 23 23 23

40 40 41

42

41 41

41

44

18 19 19

20

18 19 19

21

26 26 27

28

26 26 27

28

Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10

€

€ € £ €

03/06/2011

8


Number of stores Small SM

400-1000m² (most discounts incl)

large SM

1000 - 2500m²

Hypermarket

+2500m²

62.500

7.400

20.250

Since 2000:

+1.950 HM ( +36%)

+5.500 LSM ( +36%)

+10.700 SSM ( +21%)


Format structure Europe

14% 19% 26% 32% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 35% 35% 35% 12%

16%

20% 21%

23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23%

26%

26%

25%

26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28%

48% 39%

29% 21% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

HM LSM SSM REM

03/06/2011

9


TO (mio €) per store

Small SM

400-1000m² (most discounts incl)

large SM

1000 - 2500m²

Hypermarket

+2500m²


Density HM versus Av TO per store

# of HM per million inhabitants

Turn

over

per

sto

re in m

illio

n €

03/06/2011

10


Number of stores per million inhabitants

3

23

23

7

7

15

26

5

22

26

10

32

22

3

13

27

8

23

17

9

13

9

22

45

19

11

51

58

48

71

87

86

82

41

80

73

52

76

35

75

25

72

52

109

85

109

125

114

114

121

116

88

103

128

171

138

168

251

304

395

376

37

95

97

116

137

143

161

171

194

196

198

208

211

213

225

245

248

325

397

439

464

TurSlkUKPolPorHunCzeGreSwiFraSpaFinEir

NedIta

SweBelGerDenAusNor

>2500m2

1000-2500m2

400-1000m2


Format structure by country

55%

28%

4% 12%

32%

9% 17%

26%

9%

28%

39%

25% 25% 29%

42%

51%

11%

39%

17% 10%

21%

15%

51%

48%

34%

14%

29%

32%

20%

33%

27%

34% 30% 23%

35% 15%

29%

13%

40%

34%

11%

19%

53%

40% 34%

25%

65%

43% 25%

51%

19% 13% 19%

22% 25%

10%

35% 17%

27% 11%

15%

4% 4% 5% 6% 9% 11% 11% 17% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 25%

31% 33% 39%

63%

Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor Spa Fin Eir Swi Ita Cze UK Gre Hun Slk Pol Tur

HM (+2500m²) LSM (1000-2500m²) SSM (400-1000m²) Rem (under 400m²)

03/06/2011

11


Sto

re D

ensity (

sto

res p

er

mill

ion in

habitants

)

Lowest

tier

Medium

tier

Highest

tier

Hypermarket Small Supermarket

Discount Large Supermarket

Germany

Austria

Denmark

Norway Belgium

France

Finland Sweden Italy

Switzerland

Ireland

Netherlands

UK

Slovakia Hungary

Czech Rep

Spain Portugal

Greece Poland

Slovenia


33% more shoppers switch stores to

benefit from promotions!

03/06/2011

12


Promotion Sensitivity: Average Europe

12 12 14 16 16

31 33 34 32 31

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

actively searchpromotions inmy regular store

Change storesfor promotions


27

23 23

19 19 18

13

30

24 24

20 20 19

14

37

26 26

20 15

UK Italy Spain Switzerland France Belgium Germany

2008

2009

2010

Promotional pressure has increased across Europe…

% of Value on Promotion

03/06/2011

13


10.1% 11.4%

12.4% 13.8%

14.9% 15.4% 15.9% 16.1% 16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 17.4% 18.2% 18.9% 19.1%

18.0% 18.5% 19.7% 19.1%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Market share discount in Europe


# of HD per million inhabitants

Mark

et

share

Density HD versus market share

R²=0.971

03/06/2011

14


Retail Brands Transformation

Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company Page 28

The Retail Brands reality is significant, mostly growing, but very diverse

46%

42%

38%

30% 28% 28% 28%

27% 25%

22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16%

14% 14%

11%

8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

2010 for most countries (some of the smaller markets is 2009 data)

Weighted Global Average:

15.2% (+0.3%)

03/06/2011

15


Retail Brands share: 9 years, 7 countries and 1944 categories

27.0% 27.4% 28.0% 28.7% 29.3% 30.1% 30.6% 31.4% 31.9%

32.8% 31.3% 32.1%

33.3% 34.7%

35.6% 36.7% 37.2% 37.9% 38.5% 39.1%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Value shareVolume share


Summary by country ALL Categories 2009 2010Switzerland 46.2% 46.3% 0.1%

UK 42.5% 42.2% -0.3%

Spain 36.4% 38.2% 1.8%

Portugal 28.8% 29.9% 1.1%

Germany 27.7% 28.1% 0.4%

France 27.7% 28.1% 0.4%

Austria 28.0% 27.8% -0.2%

Belgium 26.8% 27.5% 0.7%

Netherlands 25.0% 25.5% 0.5%

Denmark 21.5% 21.7% 0.2%

Sweden 20.7% 20.7% 0.0%

Norway 19.8% 20.6% 0.8%

Slovakia 18.5% 20.1% 1.6%

Hungary 19.6% 20.1% 0.5%

Czech rep 15.6% 17.3% 1.7%

Poland 13.9% 16.4% 2.5%

Italy 14.6% 16.1% 1.5%

Greece 12.2% 13.7% 1.5%

Turkey 9.6% 10.7% 1.1%

03/06/2011

16


Who buys Retail Brands vs. Manufacturer Brands?

• Shop more often

• Spend more per trip

• Larger HH size

• More Affluent

• Smaller HH size

• Most purchases on

Manufacturer Brands

• Less Affluent

SUPER LOW Retail Brand Buyers SUPER HEAVY Retail Brand Buyers

47 49 54 47 23 32

21 22 11 8

UK FRA GER SPA USA

Share of Retail Brands in total purchases

Super heavy Retail Brand buyers Super low Retail Brand buyers


Retail brands essentially gain at the expense of secondary and small brands

(*): Based upon a sample of frequently purchased categories

UK France Spain Germany Italy USA

39% 38% 35% 31% 37% 31%

43% 28% 31% 32% 15% 17%

18% 34% 34% 37%

48% 52%

N°1 brand Retail Brands Other brands

03/06/2011

17

Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company Page 33

Indications towards the saturation point of ±45% value share

Switzerland and UK plateau at that level for several years

Super Heavy PL buyers max out around the 50% level

PL gain structurally 0.3%-0.5% points per year

2010 15%

2015 17.5%

2020 20%

Retail brands have space to expand:

USA

Catching up European markets

Developing markets


@Question: Have you ever made a purchase over

the Internet?

84%

0

20

40 60

80

100

Less than 1 month ago

57%

1-3 months ago 21%

4-6 months ago 9%

more than 6 months ago

13%

% of online population

03/06/2011

18


The grocery online shopper

Source: Homescan 2010


# shopping trips per year

Average spend per trip

The grocery online

shopper


03/06/2011

19


Distribution of shopping

trips

31%

3%

40%

8%

21%

4%

26%

11%

26%

18%

21%

23%

22%

75%

13%

68%

# trips % spending # trips % spending

more 10 times

4 -10 times

2-3 times

1 time



Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen ... · Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor...

Documents

Transcript of Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen ... · Fra Ger Ned Bel Swe Aus Den Por Nor...