CONFIDENTIAL. IP as an Asset Class The London IP Summit London Stock Exchange 13th – 14th October...
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Transcript of CONFIDENTIAL. IP as an Asset Class The London IP Summit London Stock Exchange 13th – 14th October...
CONFIDENTIAL.
IP as an Asset ClassThe London IP Summit
London Stock Exchange 13th – 14th October 2014
Auckland | San Diego | London
CONFIDENTIAL.
Valuation, value drivers and impact
Asset class characteristics
Beyond current mainstream investment strategies
Agenda:
CONFIDENTIAL.
3Definition: what are we talking about? Patents Copyrights Trademarks Brands Trade Secrets Know How
Intellectual Property is the intangible product of R&D spend
CONFIDENTIAL.
4Audience: who are we talking to? Family Offices and Multi Family
Offices Asset Managers Pension Funds & Consultants Insurance Companies Endowments Hedge Funds Private Equity Funds
CONFIDENTIAL.
5 IP is Mispriced
IP value may be calculated by various accounting methods.
DCF: NPV of future cash flows Market Comparable: last transaction or industry averageCost basis: what did the IP cost to create?
For all but the simplest DCF the value of qualitative judgement and market knowledge is the most significant factor in value.
The inability to systematically and transparently value IP creates huge bid/offer and significant opportunity to generate excess returns.
CONFIDENTIAL.
6Traditional IP Investment Strategies
Royalty Investing
Purchase of future cash flows, structured deals now predominate
Falling Yields due to weight of investor money
Litigation Finance
Financing patent disputes
Costs of litigation in USA increasing and strategy lacks scale
Venture Capital
Wide dispersion of returns as significant execution risk
Secondary funds have best performance
CONFIDENTIAL.
7A Vast, Growing, Uncorrelated Market WIPO valued the US market at $8 trillion generating
$180bn in annual income in 2011. Income is primarily generated by licensing, commercialisation and litigation. This market size makes IP the largest asset class in the US and one of the largest globally.
IP filings in the USA have grown in excess of 15% pa CAGR over the past 7 years. This type of growth is not confined to the USA.
Patents, copyrights and other forms of IP are not subject to the same systemic risks as traditional asset classes and are also uncorrelated with the common forms of alternatives (hedge funds, private equity, real estate).
CONFIDENTIAL.
8Illustrative Asset Class Comparison
Correlation Volatility Liquidity Transpare
ncyYield/
ReturnIntrinsic
Value
IG Bonds High Low High High Low Moderate
LC Equities
High High High High Moderate Low
Hedge Funds
Moderate High Low Low Moderate Low
Private Equity
Moderate Low Low Low High Moderate
Real Estate
High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High
IP Low Low Low Low High High
CONFIDENTIAL.
9 Expanding beyond traditional investment strategies
i. IP lending
ii. Special situations
iii. Direct investments in IP rich companies
IP provides a unique perspective on R&D intensive industries, where value drivers are often IP related but not understood or properly covered by traditional analysts.
The key investment skill is valuation in context.
CONFIDENTIAL.
10 IP lending
Extend credit secured by IP portfolios (and other assets )
Value the IP on a conservative cash flow and loan to value basis
Enhance collateral packages with IP assets valuation
Upon default, IP broker network can be used to exit the collateral
Low teens coupons + warrants: mid teens coupons w/o warrants. >2% origination fees
CONFIDENTIAL.
11 Special situations
Distressed
IP Activism
Change of Control
Patent Arbitrage
IP Litigation Outcomes
CONFIDENTIAL.
12 Distressed
Nortel Auction Generates 3x Expected Price, Bonds Get Par + Accrued
Subs Turn Out to be an Even Better Bet
CONFIDENTIAL.
15 Patent Arbitrage
$2,222
$1,277 $1,146
$846 $750 $727
$652 $510
$376 $262 $221 $154 $133
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
StrategicNPE
CPTN
Implied Price per Patent (000’s)
Coupling superior IP purchasing analysis with long-termcapital permits the arbitrage of IP portfolio value
Implied Price per Patent (000’s) Implied Price per Patent (000’s)
CONFIDENTIAL.
17 Direct investing
Liquid long/Short position based on IP analysis
Illiquid PE investment in IP strategic play
CONFIDENTIAL.
18 Illustration of a typical long/short portfolio
Long/short investing in companies with deep value IP Catalysts
Due to informational asymmetries, IP stocks have greater vol. and dispersion than the broad market
Market Neutral Book • Expected Return 10%+ annual• Implied Vol (~ max) 6 %• Exposure <=10% market• Positions 20-30 paired off• Average Position size 400 bps• Position risk -12.5%, -20% max
Fundamental Long/Short
YTD – 7/14/14
Ticker YTD % V180LTBR 99.99 89.14 MYGN 89.42 52.20 MARA 83.33 52.38 CODE 59.68 28.07 IDCC 58.02 43.54 DMRC 55.61 54.85 UPIP 55.07 72.23 MU 54.78 37.06 IDTI 54.13 39.09 BBRY 53.49 55.37 SNDK 50.18 25.56 RMBS 48.15 37.03 IMMR 38.14 44.71 TEVA 36.93 26.91 COPY 36.84 95.28 ROVI 20.72 37.17 NVDA 20.19 24.30 VRNG 19.26 54.97 BRKR 18.39 25.97 IPO 15.21 40.54 TSRA 14.53 28.59 DISH 13.76 26.93 BSX 9.48 26.52 QCOM 7.31 15.89 SPX 7.05 10.29 CCMP 6.40 13.63 JIL 6.13 18.97 ACTG 4.33 39.87 BRCD 2.54 26.95 TIVO 2.44 26.64 AMSC 1.83 65.84 RPXC 0.71 25.05 MITL 0.00 45.35 CEVA (0.03) 31.38 HTC (1.42) 37.65 BUR (1.64) 15.78 MSI (1.70) 14.54 MRVL (2.78) 28.05 NOK (3.10) 35.02 PTNT (3.85) 39.81 ERIC (4.13) 20.77 WIN (4.79) 27.91 TICC (5.27) 15.21 OLED (8.61) 54.39 MENT (10.34) 23.97 YHOO (11.64) 32.35 AOL (12.76) 46.14 CIEN (13.74) 42.36 PCO (15.67) 56.18 VIA TECH (18.21) 35.57 ALU (19.43) 43.51 ARMH (20.56) 31.78 CREE (20.87) 36.70 VHC (20.92) 52.85 PPRO (22.97) N/AELNK (25.72) 38.51 IMN (27.14) 43.31 DSS (31.40) 80.91 ONE (33.33) 131.44 FNJN (36.50) 179.39 INVT (43.94) 145.15 PRKR (68.02) 136.85 SPEX (80.27) 143.91
Ticker YTD % V180PPRO (22.97) N/AFNJN (36.50) 179.39 INVT (43.94) 145.15 PRKR (68.02) 136.85 ONE (33.33) 131.44 COPY 36.84 95.28 LTBR 99.99 89.14 DSS (31.40) 80.91 UPIP 55.07 72.23 AMSC 1.83 65.84 PCO (15.67) 56.18 BBRY 53.49 55.37 VRNG 19.26 54.97 DMRC 55.61 54.85 OLED (8.61) 54.39 VHC (20.92) 52.85 MARA 83.33 52.38 MYGN 89.42 52.20 AOL (12.76) 46.14 MITL 0.00 45.35 IMMR 38.14 44.71 IDCC 58.02 43.54 ALU (19.43) 43.51 IMN (27.14) 43.31 CIEN (13.74) 42.36 IPO 15.21 40.54 ACTG 4.33 39.87 PTNT (3.85) 39.81 IDTI 54.13 39.09 ELNK (25.72) 38.51 HTC (1.42) 37.65 ROVI 20.72 37.17 MU 54.78 37.06 RMBS 48.15 37.03 CREE (20.87) 36.70 VIA TECH (18.21) 35.57 NOK (3.10) 35.02 YHOO (11.64) 32.35 ARMH (20.56) 31.78 CEVA (0.03) 31.38 TSRA 14.53 28.59 CODE 59.68 28.07 MRVL (2.78) 28.05 WIN (4.79) 27.91 BRCD 2.54 26.95 DISH 13.76 26.93 TEVA 36.93 26.91 TIVO 2.44 26.64 BSX 9.48 26.52 BRKR 18.39 25.97 SNDK 50.18 25.56 RPXC 0.71 25.05 NVDA 20.19 24.30 MENT (10.34) 23.97 ERIC (4.13) 20.77 JIL 6.13 18.97 QCOM 7.31 15.89 BUR (1.64) 15.78 TICC (5.27) 15.21 MSI (1.70) 14.54 CCMP 6.40 13.63 SPX 7.05 10.29
CONFIDENTIAL.
19 Private EquityMany public companies have either failed to monetize their IP or have important IP whose value is not reflected in their stock
price
Low dose, fast acting pain medicine using old patent that is re-protected (patent)
Unique assured cloud solution for high security data storage (trade secret/know how)
80% cost reduction and enhanced thermal stability in LEDs (patent/trade secret/know how)
Textile that recycles body heat and emits at IR radiation (patent, trade secret)
Thermoplastic polymer road furniture with high tensile strength (patent, trade secret/know how)
can be exploited by and inure to the benefit of private equity holders
This IP can be used to finance LBO debt and, through collateral package enhancement, either reduce the coupon on or increase
the principal amount of the LBO debt available
In Life Sciences patent repositioning strategies can acquire dead or dying drugs and increase value through identifying new
patent opportunities
Licensing IP-for-equity with VC backed firms provides an alternative strategy for IP owners who traditionally seek royalties