CONFERENCE

TRANSITIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD : KEY LESSONS FROM THE MOROCCAN MODEL

MOHAMMED TAWFIK MOULINEDIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR

STRATEGIC STUDIES

SHANGHAI, March 9th, 2012THE SHANGHAI SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION

Summary1. The Arab Spring, multiple factors and contrasting

evolutions

1.1. The factors behind the Arab Spring1.2. Keys to understanding the current processes in the Arab

world1.3. Some outcomes of the Arab Spring

2. Morocco in the context of the Arab Spring

2.1. The Basis of the Moroccan model 2.2. The constitutional reform : A catalyst for accelerating

Morocco’s development trajectory2.3. Some challenges to be addressed to succeed in the

constitutional reform

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1. The Arab Spring, multiple factors and contrasting evolutions

The factors behind the Arab Spring

The events of the Arab Spring surprised by the exceptional scale of their political consequences as well as the quickness and the unpredictability of their spread. These events were fed by several evolutions :

On the internal level :

Unsustainability of the fallen regimes, where the political system did not allow the emergence of the Rule of Law and where the margins of freedom were reduced or non-existent.

Economic marginalization of large segments of the population due to the rise of unemployment and social inequalities.

On the external level:

The global economic crisis worsening social situation of the youth and the deprived segments of the population. It exposed the regimes inability to restore the macroeconomic balances.

Ineffectiveness of the Islamist threat as a justification to maintaining authoritarian regimes. The Al-Qaeda threat has no longer the same reasonance.

Recent intransigence of the international community towards dictatorial regimes.

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5Source: IPD 2009

Regulations and social order

Morocco stands out from many Arab countries by its more fragmented and less authoritarian social regulations.

Personalized and authoritarian social order

Open social order

Personnalized and decentralized social regulations

Keys to understanding the current processes in the Arab world (1/2)

In Tunisia, the high concentration of power, the weakness of civil society and the non-involvement of citizens in public affairs and politics, the high level of unemployment, particularly among the youth, and social inequalities have fueled a climate of tensions and distrust regarding official institutions.

In Egypt, like in Tunisia, the claims were both social and political. The relatively peaceful demonstrations and the neutrality of the Egyptian army, the largest in the Arab world, were key factors in the process of overthrowing Mubarak’s regime.

In Libya, the destabilization affected the tribal alliance system that brought Qadhafi’s tribe to power. Demands for political reforms have quickly shifted to an armed insurrection and then to a civil war. Although the Libyan State held sufficient financial resources to face the popular protests, claims went far beyond simple social demands.

In Yemen, social protests led to the signing of an agreement negotiated by the Gulf monarchies allowing the departure of President Saleh. Presidential elections were held on February 21st , 2012.

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Keys to understanding the current processes in the Arab world (2/2)

In Syria, the population is a mosaic of ethnic and sectarian communities with fluctuating relations. Also, many disputes inherited from the past and maintained by the Baathist regime which established the rule of the Alawite minority (10% of the population), have led to protests from the country's Sunni majority. The protest movement were violently repressed by Assad’s regime.

In Algeria, the popular protests are not new as there have been ongoing protests since 2001. All the socioeconomic and political ingredients are present, but because of the Algerian people’s trauma since the civil war of the 1990s and the experience of the army and police in dealing with riots, the protest movement has been relatively contained since April 2011.

In Bahrain, internal conflicts between the Sunni minority and the Shia majority have lasted for decades. However, the economic crisis that had a major impact on the country, which does not depend on oil revenues, has exacerbated the internal tensions. Saudi Arabia and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have deployed their armed forces to help the kingdom contain the popular uprisings. The protests resumed in January 2012.

In Jordan, the protests began in January 2011 but did not affect the King Abdullah II, who carried out changes in the government to accelerate the reforms, with the priority being given to the fight against corruption and the high cost of living.

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Some outcomes of the Arab Spring (1/2)

Common outcomes :

The events of the Arab Spring resulted in outcomes that are common to several Arab countries where the regime has fallen :

• Fundamental psychological change associated with the collapse of the wall of fear.

• Strong popular demands that must be echoed in the implemented public policies.

• Emergence of a democratic process leading to elections considered credible by the international community.

• Rise to power of new elites who share an Islamic background, while claiming their aspiration for modernity.  

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Some outcomes of the Arab Spring (2/2)

Specific outcomes :

• In Egypt, the main political issue lies on the scope of powers that the Egyptian army will concede to the parliament.

• In Libya, the state is embryonic and the country is to be rebuilt. Sporadic fightings, so far of low intensity, continue between different tribes and militias previously united against Qadhafi.

• In Yemen, there is a fear that the already fragile state collapses as it shelters terrorist groups.

• In Syria, the conflict, gaining international momentum, could have destabilizing consequences for the entire region.

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2. Morocco in the context of the Arab Spring

The basis of the Moroccan Model

The widespread and violent popular protests spared Morocco because of its particular characteristics in the MENA region:

• Morocco is a thousand-year-old monarchy comforted by a large popular legitimacy.

• The King, Head of State and Commander of the Faithful, embodies the powers conferred by the Constitution,

• Morocco opted very early, for political pluralism and a balanced market economy.

• Early on, Morocco has fostered the emergence and the development of non-governmental actors (trade unions, media, civil society, ...).

• From the 90s on, a national reconciliation process has been initiated, highly supported by various actors of the civil society in order to exhume the past and to conceive the future with better prospects.

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The constitutional reform : A catalyst for accelerating Morocco’s development trajectory

Unique in the Arab World, the constitutional reform is the result of a process of economic, political and social reforms that have been undertaken since the early 1980s. Moroccans overwhelmingly voted in favor of the Constitution after a referendum in July 2011 with a turnout of over 75%.

The main contributions of the new Constitution :

• The plurality of the Moroccan identity at the heart of which lies the Amazigh identity as a common heritage is constitutionally recognized,

• Strengthening of the Rule of Law and the institutions.

• Strengthening of the powers of the Head of the Government, who is freely elected.

• Strengthening the role played by political parties as part of an effective pluralism.

• Increasing the moral standards of public life

•Consolidation of a clear and balanced separation of powers.

•Constitutionalisation of bodies in charge of human rights and protecting freedoms. Moreover, the environment and the security are added to the fundamental rights

• Consecration of the advanced regionalization process serving the regional competitiveness and the decrease of inequalities.

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Legislative Elections of 2011

•The new Constitution was followed by legislative elections in November 2011: victory of the PJD (Party for Justice and Devlopement) which has an islamic background. •These elections fullfilled the shift from a consensual political transition to a transition through the

vote.

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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

27,1%41,5%

65,3%

Share of seats won by Islamist parties in the last legislative elections

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The constitutional reform : The challenge of implementation

• Implementation of the principles and mechanisms introduced by the Constitution through several organic laws that remain to be drafted.

oThese laws should strengthen the new powers and attributions of the government, the parliament and the judiciary.

• Strengthening governance of public policies for greater efficiency of the reforms.

• To support the constitutional reform, special attention should be paid to the very urgent issues, notably the fight against inequalities and youth unemployment.

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Morocco’s assets to succeed in the constitutional reform

•A strong national sense of belonging,

•A cultural, ethnic and linguistic diversity recognized by the constitution

•Strong family ties which constitutes the main basis of the social bond

•A greater openness as a strategic and irreversible choice

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Strong sense of national belonging

Important elements defining the fact of being Moroccon, according to the respondents

Source: IRES

0

2

4

6

8

10

9.3 9.3 9.2

7.9 7.8 7.5

5.4

1,93 2.00 2.05

3.03 3.08 3.34 3.61

Standard deviation

Differences that are most likely to disrupt social cohesion

Cultural and linguistic diversity not viewed as a threat

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

45.338.3

26.7 22.1 20.3 20.09.7

20.223.8

22.820.5

18.2 19.4

16.8

34.5 37.9

50.557.5 61.5 60.6

73.5

Low

Medium

High

Source: IRES

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Very strong family bonds

Percentage of

respondents

Source: IRES

Intensity of various social bonds

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Some obstacles to overcome in order to release the country’s development potential

• A weak political bond that translates into a relatively low institutional confidence,

• Fragmentation of the political landscape, although there is a slight attenuation compared to 2007 parliamentary elections,

• Some concerns in terms of the levels of corruption and socioeconomic inequalities,

• Strengthening of traditional and institutional solidarities.

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Decline of the political landscape fragmentation

PPS [4,6%]

MP [8,1%]

PI [15,2%]

PJD [27,1%]RNI [13,2%]

PAM [11,9%]

USFP [9,9%]

UC [5,8%]

PT [1%]

Others [3,2%]

395 seats in the Parliament Political parties represented in the Parliament following the 2011 legis-lative elections

PPS [5,2%]USFP [11,7%]

RNI [12%]

MP [12,6%]PI [16%]

PJD [14,2%]

UC [8,3%]PND [4,3%]

FFD [2,8%]MDS [2,8%]

PADS/CNI/PSU [1,8%]PT [1,5%]PT [1,5%]

PRE [1,2%]

Others [4%]325 seats in the Parliament

Political parties represented in the Parliament following the 2007 legis-lative elections

Four parties are present at the government: PJD, PI, MP, PPS, that is 55% of the parliament seats.

Five parties are present at the government : PI, MP, RNI, USFP, PPS, that is 57,5% of the parliament seats.

Renewed interest for the elections

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Source: IRES

0%10%20%30%40%50%

46.3 42.4

2.5 8.3

Turnout at the legislative elections (2007) and local elections (2009)

Constitutional referendum Legislative elections0%

20%

40%

60%

80%75.5

45.4

Official turnouts in 2011

The July 2011 constitutional change and the ensuing early elections in November were marked by a renewed interest in Moroccan politics.

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