Conference On The Status Of Jerusalem Under International Law And

Future Options For The City

4/22/12

Options for the Future Status of Jerusalem

Shaul Arieli

www.shaularieli.com

The premise

The feasibility of a permanent status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians without a Palestinian capital city in Jerusalem is slim to none.

Plans Vs. Reality• The unification, expansion and development of Jerusalem has been led by national considerations, more often than municipal ones

• In fact, a substantial amount of Israeli interests never materialized and current trends are threatening Israeli interests

Expanding the City Borders - 1967

• Urgency• Military Commission

38 Sq.Km

70 Sq.Km

6 Sq.Km

Expanding the City Borders - 1967•Security and Strategy •In practice, the areas are populated

Expanding the City Borders - 1967

•Territorial-Demographic•In fact, percentage of Palestinians rose from 26% to 37%

196k Isr.

69k Pal.

Expanding the City Borders - 1967

•Land Ownership•In practice: Overwhelmingly realized

•“Lock” Neighborhoods•In practice: Executed and created a sequence of urban Jewish residential block

Development of the City and its surroundings – 1967-1971

Development of the City and its surroundings – 1972-2012

•The “Ring” Neighborhoods•In practice: mostly executed

Beit Lehem

Ramallah

•The Satellite Cities•In practice: accomplished without creating a sequence of urban Jewish settlements

Development of the City and its surroundings – 1967-2012

•Security and Politics•In actual fact, it includes East Jerusalem

Political-Demographic Barrier – 2002-2012

•Demography•In practice: No change in the city or its residents’ status

Political-Demographic Barrier – 2002-2012

A United Jerusalem?

In practice, the Palestinian's fabric of life is mostly separate:

1.Citizenship 2.Municipal electoral participation3.Education system4.Public transport5.Trade & leisure areas6.Employment sectors

A United Jerusalem?

1. 78% of all residents, and 84% of children below poverty line

2. Expropriation of 14,000 Palestinians residency3. A shortage of 1,000 classrooms4. 90 thousand inhabitants outside the wall5. 50 thousand housing units for Jews and 4

thousand for Arabs6. Lack of: Post Sewage Hospitals Employment Areas

"I think Jerusalem is progressing In many ways ”, says Olmert and immediately qualifies. “…I refer to Jerusalem that is West Jerusalem. I mean the neighborhoods inhabited by Jews, including those not part of the city until 1967. In what concerns other parts of Jerusalem, where Jews don’t live, there is not much change. I have come to very somber conclusions regarding the future of Jerusalem as a unified city…since 1967 no Israeli government has taken concrete measure required for the practical unification of the city.…including the government headed by myself which did not pursue all that is needed to unify Jerusalem. Although we invested in Jerusalem, we consciously focused on western parts of the city and on new neighborhoods like Har Homa, Pisgat Ze’ev, Ramot and Gilo, and we avoided investing in areas I see as not being part of a future Jerusalem governed by the state of Israel.”

Ehud Olmert, May 2012

Solution Patterns

Partial division – distinction

between the neighborhoods and the Historic

Basin

Internationalization of the Historic

Basin

The Division of the Historic Basin

“I was within reach of a peace agreement. The Palestinians never rejected my claims. Even if some incessantly continue to argue my claims were rejected, that was not the case in reality. They did not accept my claims, and there is a difference. They did not accept them because the negotiations were not completed, they were on the verge of completion. Had I stayed on as Premier for another 4 to 6 months, I believe an agreement could have been reached. The gaps were minor, we reached the very final straight”

Ehud Olmert, May 2012

Thank you