Condo Outlook 2005

Cameron McNeill

It Doesn’t Get Any Better Than ThisHistorically Low Interest RatesGrowing Population

2% per year in the Fraser Valley1% per year in Greater VancouverMore than 35,000 people per year

Low Unemployment Low Vacancy Rates and increased Rents

Our little Secret…

It Doesn’t Get Any Better Than ThisVancouver - Lotus Land:

Top place to live IN THE WORLDClimate, Beauty, Safety, Year-around amenities,

Fresh Air & Water, etc. etc.

Influx of International Capital – Asia PacificAcceptance of Urbanization – densificationOlympics – introduction to the world

The Future of Vancouver?

Where Are they Coming From?

Source: BC Stats

Where Are they Coming From?

Source: BC Stats

77%

Rising Costs

Land Costs 15-20% per year

Construction Costs 15-25% since 2003

Labour Costs 15-20% since 2003

Vancouver – Summer 05

Vancouver – Summer 05

Vancouver – Summer 05

Vancouver – Summer 05

Vancouver – Summer 05

Vancouver – Summer 05

Urbanation: The Allure of the Picket Fence?

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Quality of Life / Economics

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Lower Mainland Housing Starts

Up and Up and UpYou are

Here

Where We Were2004

Downtown $475

Vancouver $450

North Shore $350

Burnaby/New West $440

Richmond $340

Tri-Cities $350

Surrey/Langley $315

Where We Are2004 2005

Downtown $475 $525

Vancouver $450 $485

North Shore $350 $375

Burnaby/New West $440 $490

Richmond $340 $375

Tri-Cities $350 $380

Surrey/Langley $315 $375

Where We Are Going2004 2005 2006

Downtown $475 $525 $600

Vancouver Westside $450 $485 $520

Vancouver Eastside $350 $375 $420

North Shore $440 $490 $500

Burnaby/New West $340 $375 $405

Richmond $350 $380 $400

Tri-Cities $315 $370 $385

Surrey/Langley $310 $330 $350

Drum Roll…predictions and the good stuff

Buy smart but Think Long term – 5 years ++Vancouver region will continue to grow despite

cyclical real estate marketsConsider cash flow and potential for

appreciationBuy smart – do your research, know your

builder, buy location first – product second, buy pragmatically not emotionally.

Know your banker – determine what you can afford ahead of shopping.

PredictionsCautiously bullish short-term yet strongly

bullish 5 years plusAreas with upside short term:

Westside and Eastside Vancouver, Downtown, Coal Harbour, most anything near transit node,

Sunshine Coast, Squamish to Pemberton, BC Interior all have upside.

Alberta – this will be strong economy for years to come. “Urban” will escalate in years to come.

PredictionsSectors to watch:

Seniors Housing (“resort lifestyle living”) – this will boom in the next 5-10 years

Alternative family products – i.e. high density ground orientated, urban alternatives

BC Population growth will exceed new housing starts in the period of 05’-07’

Land supply will continue to diminish moving forward. Niche in-fill locations playing increasing roll

Great things await us in the futureSpecial thanks to:

MPC Intelligence

www.thetrac.ca

Cameron McNeill

www.condosbymac.com