Concepts & country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market
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Transcript of Concepts & country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market
Concepts and country specific strategies for the post-2012 carbon market
BMUB Side Event: Market Based Mechanisms –
Taking stock of the portfolio and looking
towards new instruments
Carbon Expo 2014, Cologne
Carsten Warnecke
29.05.2014
© ECOFYS | |
Content
Interim results of research project:
“Concepts and country specific strategies
for the post-2012 carbon market”
> CDM portfolio analysis
> Duration: Aug 2013 – Sept 2015
> Partner: TÜV SÜD
This presentation:
> Background
> Objectives
> Approach
> First Insights
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
© ECOFYS | |
Background
> Lack of international ambition and record lows in CER demand
lead to substantial challenges for CDM projects
– Implemented projects may no longer be able to cover their
operational costs and/or transaction costs
– Projects might not be implemented, shut down or modified for
continuation outside the CDM
> Results in loss of human capacity and trust
> Ongoing decoupling from the international regime complicates
transfer in future systems
> Existing project-based mitigation activities are individually
threatened
> Efficient and effective support requires tailored approaches
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
© ECOFYS | |
Objectives
> Empirical analysis of the situation and current decision-making
processes of CDM project activities
> Creation of a previously not existing source of information on the
level of project-types and host countries
> Basis with great value for type-specific conclusions and
recommendations
> Identification of circumstances under which projects are dis-
continued and fall back to the pre-CDM situation (emitting GHG)
> Identification of impacts by already existing or emerging national
or international support and policy schemes
> Disclosure of projects which could be reactivated or continued
> Input to concepts and country specific strategies for further
cooperation with regards to international carbon markets
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
© ECOFYS | |
Approach
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
Output:
Conclusions &
Recommendations
Definition of population
(countries & project types)
Selection of project cases (sampling)
Compilation of project status
database / Questionnaire
Status inquiry / evaluation of projects (Analysis of data sources, direct
communication, secondary contacts)
In-country trips / on-side
verification
Analysis
Establishing a contact
database
Periodic evaluation phases
∑ > 7,000 projects 1,311 projects for evaluation
=> 5,682 projects in population
© ECOFYS | |
Approach
> Stratified sampling for technologies and host countries
> Desk-research of publicly available information
> Status inquiry / evaluation of projects in the sample via
– Web-based questionnaires (English, Spanish, Chinese)
– Telephone interviews
– Full evaluation started in March
> Starting points are Focal Point Entities for CDM projects
– Often outdated or incomplete
– Significant reduction in staff
– ERPA terminated no updated MOC
> Manual closing of gaps with initial PDD contact details and further
research
> Inquiries involve all relevant stakeholders (developer, buyer,
consultants, DOEs, DNAs)
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
© ECOFYS | |
First insights
> Caution should be taken in the interpretation of the data
presented
> Current data cannot be representative for the entire sample
> Most active projects answer first while confirmation for inactive
projects is difficult to get
> This early stage of the evaluation does not allow an accurate
analysis (35% completed)
> High quality and completeness of responses
> Current response rate differs per country and technology type and
is up to 75%
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
Who has provided the data?
© ECOFYS | |
What share of projects is up and running?
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
67% of responding projects are still or already fully implemented
81% of implemented projects claim to be in regular operation Corresponding to ~55% of responding projects
> Expectation that the share of implemented and operational projects
remains the same or slightly increases (12 months period)
© ECOFYS | |
How do projects react to the current situation?
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
Changes to the verification & issuance approach?
> 14% of projects have stopped an operating monitoring system
(hydro 3%; LFG 20%)
© ECOFYS | |
Why do project activities continue?
> Various reasons beyond CER revenues
> Only 22% state having their initial ERPA
> Almost 50% stated to have stopped CER marketing or don‘t know
how to marketing CERs currently
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
Despite the recent drop in CER prices, what are the reasons to continue with the CDM GHG mitigation activity?
© ECOFYS | |
Support
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
What type of immediate support is required for project continuation in addition to financial support?
What type of support has the GHG mitigation project received on national level?
© ECOFYS | |
…
> … no conclusions yet
> The analysis is ongoing
> Thanks to all that contributed already
> Good chance for stakeholders and participants to draw the real
picture and create attention to the real needs of the market
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you.
Ecofys:
Carsten Warnecke
Contact:
More information at
http://www.ecofys.com/en/project/
evaluating-the-state-of-cdm-
projects/
29.05.2014 Carsten Warnecke